Guynextdoor2
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Everyone says that BJP is gonna do well - which is acceptable. But claims around TN and WB- those are efforts at great BS.
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Everyone says that BJP is gonna do well - which is acceptable. But claims around TN and WB- those are efforts at great BS.
Indrani
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What we are seeing is a selfish generation only concerned with me, me, me. As long as their urges are fulfilled in the now, nothing else matters. What respect? What family? What society? You go to any Western forums women are called generally as B*tches and Wh*res. When even mothers are not looked as figure of respect but term MILF, then you know what that society has come too.
jbond197
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Constituency Watch Special: Amritsar Updated till 12 Noon: Arun Jaitley Runaway hit!
Amritsar City itself is divided into 5 assembly parts – North, South, East, West and Central, while it also is made up of 4 surrounding assembly segments of Majitha, Raja Sansi, Ajnala and Attari. Traditionally, Punjab politics has been neatly divided along the Sikh-Hindu fault-lines, wherein the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is widely perceived as catering to Sikhs (especially the upper and middle crest), whereas Congress was seen as a centrist party with core Punjabi Hindu plus Dalit and lower segments of Sikh voters. BJP after joining SAD as a partner has been bringing I the substantial Hindu vote to the alliance. Amritsar too functions along similar lines which made life difficult to BJP’s Navjot Singh Sidhu in 2009.
What is happening today is that AAP is hurting Congress badly in Amritsar, which is giving runaway leads to Arun Jaitley of BJP. In fact, the lead could be stunning for BJP at the end of the day! What is important is that BJP is getting big leads in both the city as well as rural areas, so this is probably a no contest which was earlier billed as a weak wicket for Jaitley. The real extent of leads will be known by evening when the full impact of the Akalis ability to manage rural Amritsar will hit us with numbers. We are safely projecting at 1 PM that Arun Jaitley has probably taken big early leads which are almost unassailable for Congress’s Captain Amrinder Singh!
Amritsar City itself is divided into 5 assembly parts – North, South, East, West and Central, while it also is made up of 4 surrounding assembly segments of Majitha, Raja Sansi, Ajnala and Attari. Traditionally, Punjab politics has been neatly divided along the Sikh-Hindu fault-lines, wherein the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is widely perceived as catering to Sikhs (especially the upper and middle crest), whereas Congress was seen as a centrist party with core Punjabi Hindu plus Dalit and lower segments of Sikh voters. BJP after joining SAD as a partner has been bringing I the substantial Hindu vote to the alliance. Amritsar too functions along similar lines which made life difficult to BJP’s Navjot Singh Sidhu in 2009.
- In Amritsar city, Congress actually led in all the segments except for Amritsar South (a Sikh stronghold of Akalis). This was partially because of the traditional Akali-Congress fault lines but mainly due to anti-incumbency faced by Sidhu in the last elections.
- In Amritsar-Rural, the picture was reversed, wherein BJP-SAD led in all the segments comfortably due to the Akali strength.
- A similar picture got replicated some 3 years later in 2012 assembly elections when SAD swept all the rural seats except Raja Sansi whereas in Amritsar city Congress and BJP shared the honours because of some smart ticket decisions by NDA
What is happening today is that AAP is hurting Congress badly in Amritsar, which is giving runaway leads to Arun Jaitley of BJP. In fact, the lead could be stunning for BJP at the end of the day! What is important is that BJP is getting big leads in both the city as well as rural areas, so this is probably a no contest which was earlier billed as a weak wicket for Jaitley. The real extent of leads will be known by evening when the full impact of the Akalis ability to manage rural Amritsar will hit us with numbers. We are safely projecting at 1 PM that Arun Jaitley has probably taken big early leads which are almost unassailable for Congress’s Captain Amrinder Singh!
Indischer
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Another thing that one has to remember is that the survey is only predicting a higher vote-share for BJP in states like TN and WB. Exactly how many seats they will translate to is nigh-impossible to predict. We might yet see 'regular and expected' results in spite of the vote swing.
Jason bourne
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Guynextdoor2
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I'm asking a more fundamental question- BJP is not fielding candidates to start with in TN. Then how come an increase for 'BJP'. If it's alliance- then the small timers getting 30% share--- yeah right!
SarthakGanguly
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Higher vote share may not even translate into a victory either.
nair
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Vote share is normally used to justify the defeat by parties who lost the election... they kind a play with the data
Indischer
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I believe it was for the alliance, not just BJP. We'll wait and watch. Why blow our fuse over predictions?
SarthakGanguly
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Still it increases relevance - especially in places where they have no presence. Something is better than nothing logic
Indischer
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Yes. Another reason why historic trends of constituencies are so closely followed. Some constituencies are the bastions of certain Parties and the winning margins are generally huge. Such factors are also taken into consideration for predictions I believe.
jbond197
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Constituency Watch: Brahmin Special: Madhepura, Kanpur, Lucknow and Unnao
Madhepura
Madhepura has always been a high profile seat of Yadavs that is seen as a prestige among the Yadav clan. Lalu Prasad Yadav once famously took on Sharad Yadav here and ensured a battle royale among the two tallest standing Yadav leaders of Bihar. Today, both are near their expiry dates and are fighting proxy battles of secularism. This is also the Mecca of OBCs as it is the home district of the late B.P. Mandal who headed the famous Mandal Commission that eventually led to the creation of reservation for OBCs.
The fight for Madhepura has become a battle of prestige for Nitish Kumar who has been virtually camping here for the last few weeks. In fact the joke in Bihar these days is that the entire secretariat has been moved from Patna to Madhepura to not only save Sharad Yadav but also to save JDU as a party. If Sharad loses from here, then the survival of the Nitish government would become untenable and even JDU as an entity may not survive the resultant drift. Such is the nature of politics that a man who was virtually invincible just a year ago and was being projected as a real prime ministerial possibility is today staring at political oblivion just for his one misstep provoked by secularism.
RJD has put up the infamous Yadav Don, Pappu Yadav and Lalu Prasad has managed to bring in a large number of Muslims to support his candidature. BJP has smartly given ticket to Vijay Singh Khushwaha who has toiled hard to bring in all the MBC votes into the saffron kitty. With Yadav and Muslim vote getting split almost vertically, the unlikely combination of Khushwaha-Brahmin coalition may tilt the scales in favour of BJP here. With almost 2.5 Lakhs out of 17 lakh voters, Brahmins will prove a crucial role in Madhepura to decide the eventual winner.
Today, BJP’s caste calculation seems to have worked out tremendously well in Madhepura as the party is in overall pole-position and Nitish Kumar’s untiring work seems to have come unstuck as Sharad Yadav is trailing at the third position by almost the day’s end. All the non-Yadav, non-Muslim votes have coalesced towards BJP (including large portions of Dalits). This lead gives enough indications of a BJP win here, but we are not yet calling this seat as we need to do a caste-wise analysis at the end of the day.
Lucknow
Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s Karma Bhoomi of his Prime Ministerial years, Lucknow is another Brahmin reserved seat that has never been won by a non-Brahmin in almost 4 decades. Can Rajnath Singh create history today is what we are watching out for, especially as H.N. Bahuguna’s daughter and the erstwhile state Congress chief, Rita Bahuguna Joshi is the Brahmin opposition to BJP president.
Lucknow voters this time seem to be once again giving a thumbs-up to BJP cutting across caste divides as Rajnath Singh is easily leading across all demographics. Brahmins too have voted in sufficiently large numbers to put all doubts at rest about them deserting the party today.
Kanpur
Shri Prakash Jaiswal who has had a hattrick in Kanpur by now is actually facing little localized anti-incumbency but the anti-Congress mood may hurt him in the end. BJP’s own internal dynamics are not really in play here as reported by the media, for the party has put up a united front in support of one of its 90s stalwarts, Murli Manohar Joshi of the original Ram Janam Bhoomi triumvirate.
In 2009, the contest here was quite tough in reality as Jaiswal of Congress managed to take leads in 3 out of the 5 assembly segments while BJP took pole position in the remaining 2. Can Congress maintain those slender leads with the prevailing Modi wave in urban India, especially of the heartland? We are tracking two interesting assembly segments here in Kanpur – Govindnagar is the swing assembly segment which will give us some inkling into the overall swing of the constituency whereas Shishamau is the segment where Congress had taken a big lead of 12k in 2009. Of course, it is the caste vote swing that will tell us the real picture, so we are also keeping a close tab on that.
Today, Kanpur is with Murli Manohar Joshi; Brahmins have voted almost one-sided to the BJP and even among Thakurs BJP is the number one choice. Muslims are getting split between Congress and SP, while Dalits are voting more to Congress as compared to BJP, but their number one choice is BSP at close to 50%. This kind of demographic support even in Congress stronghold like Shishamau gives a clear edge to Joshi.
Unnao
Here probably Congress is ahead, the only seat in the Brahmin-belt of UP where Congress still has a chance of retaining apart from Rae Bareli. Although we need to do a deeper caste analysis, what is skewing the picture in Anu Tandon’s favour is that she is getting almost overwhelming number of Brahmin votes of close to 75%. It would indeed be a big surprise if BJP could beat that kind of demographic to emerge victorious.
Madhepura
Madhepura has always been a high profile seat of Yadavs that is seen as a prestige among the Yadav clan. Lalu Prasad Yadav once famously took on Sharad Yadav here and ensured a battle royale among the two tallest standing Yadav leaders of Bihar. Today, both are near their expiry dates and are fighting proxy battles of secularism. This is also the Mecca of OBCs as it is the home district of the late B.P. Mandal who headed the famous Mandal Commission that eventually led to the creation of reservation for OBCs.
The fight for Madhepura has become a battle of prestige for Nitish Kumar who has been virtually camping here for the last few weeks. In fact the joke in Bihar these days is that the entire secretariat has been moved from Patna to Madhepura to not only save Sharad Yadav but also to save JDU as a party. If Sharad loses from here, then the survival of the Nitish government would become untenable and even JDU as an entity may not survive the resultant drift. Such is the nature of politics that a man who was virtually invincible just a year ago and was being projected as a real prime ministerial possibility is today staring at political oblivion just for his one misstep provoked by secularism.
RJD has put up the infamous Yadav Don, Pappu Yadav and Lalu Prasad has managed to bring in a large number of Muslims to support his candidature. BJP has smartly given ticket to Vijay Singh Khushwaha who has toiled hard to bring in all the MBC votes into the saffron kitty. With Yadav and Muslim vote getting split almost vertically, the unlikely combination of Khushwaha-Brahmin coalition may tilt the scales in favour of BJP here. With almost 2.5 Lakhs out of 17 lakh voters, Brahmins will prove a crucial role in Madhepura to decide the eventual winner.
Today, BJP’s caste calculation seems to have worked out tremendously well in Madhepura as the party is in overall pole-position and Nitish Kumar’s untiring work seems to have come unstuck as Sharad Yadav is trailing at the third position by almost the day’s end. All the non-Yadav, non-Muslim votes have coalesced towards BJP (including large portions of Dalits). This lead gives enough indications of a BJP win here, but we are not yet calling this seat as we need to do a caste-wise analysis at the end of the day.
Lucknow
Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s Karma Bhoomi of his Prime Ministerial years, Lucknow is another Brahmin reserved seat that has never been won by a non-Brahmin in almost 4 decades. Can Rajnath Singh create history today is what we are watching out for, especially as H.N. Bahuguna’s daughter and the erstwhile state Congress chief, Rita Bahuguna Joshi is the Brahmin opposition to BJP president.
Lucknow voters this time seem to be once again giving a thumbs-up to BJP cutting across caste divides as Rajnath Singh is easily leading across all demographics. Brahmins too have voted in sufficiently large numbers to put all doubts at rest about them deserting the party today.
Kanpur
Shri Prakash Jaiswal who has had a hattrick in Kanpur by now is actually facing little localized anti-incumbency but the anti-Congress mood may hurt him in the end. BJP’s own internal dynamics are not really in play here as reported by the media, for the party has put up a united front in support of one of its 90s stalwarts, Murli Manohar Joshi of the original Ram Janam Bhoomi triumvirate.
In 2009, the contest here was quite tough in reality as Jaiswal of Congress managed to take leads in 3 out of the 5 assembly segments while BJP took pole position in the remaining 2. Can Congress maintain those slender leads with the prevailing Modi wave in urban India, especially of the heartland? We are tracking two interesting assembly segments here in Kanpur – Govindnagar is the swing assembly segment which will give us some inkling into the overall swing of the constituency whereas Shishamau is the segment where Congress had taken a big lead of 12k in 2009. Of course, it is the caste vote swing that will tell us the real picture, so we are also keeping a close tab on that.
Today, Kanpur is with Murli Manohar Joshi; Brahmins have voted almost one-sided to the BJP and even among Thakurs BJP is the number one choice. Muslims are getting split between Congress and SP, while Dalits are voting more to Congress as compared to BJP, but their number one choice is BSP at close to 50%. This kind of demographic support even in Congress stronghold like Shishamau gives a clear edge to Joshi.
Unnao
Here probably Congress is ahead, the only seat in the Brahmin-belt of UP where Congress still has a chance of retaining apart from Rae Bareli. Although we need to do a deeper caste analysis, what is skewing the picture in Anu Tandon’s favour is that she is getting almost overwhelming number of Brahmin votes of close to 75%. It would indeed be a big surprise if BJP could beat that kind of demographic to emerge victorious.
Indrani
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Of course it affects us. You have not heard the adage "jaisa raja vaisa praja." Society always tries to emulate its leaders. They are who we look up to. This argument that personal life of a person does not matter as far as his profession life goes is right only up to the technical expertise of the person is concerned. What a mechanic or an engineer does with his personal life is supposed to not affect his knowledge about machines or engineering. But are we seeking technical expertise from our politicians and public figures? They are supposed to be the embodiment of the best in the country.
nair
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Still it increases relevance - especially in places where they have no presence. Something is better than nothing logic
Yeah it can be used as a tool to satisfy yourself when you havent done well... I am in a similar situation..... In month end, i have done 78% of my target.... but i am trying to satisfy myself by telling i have grown 12% over last year...
Indrani
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Yeah that is the measure of forwardness of India. All we now need is to open schools and professional coaching classes for mastery in prostitution and ****. Very very forward thinking parents to aspire to enroll their kids in such.
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