What appears to be confirmed so far -
Destroyers >>
- 4 x Project-15B Visakhapatnam-class
- 3 x Project-15A Kolkata-class
- 3 x Project-15 Delhi-class (upgraded)
The existence of the Next-Generation Destroyer project (the Project-18 term is unofficial, mind you) has been somewhat confirmed. However details are not yet revealed, let alone the planned timeline. But I can say for sure that at least 2-4 of these NGD-class ships would be in construction by 2030. Total required numbers of the type could be atleast 8, but don't read too much into that just yet.
For the more immediate future, at least 2 more P-15B DDGs (on top of 4 already ordered) are likely.
Frigates >>
- 7 x Project-17A
- 10 x Project 1135.6 Talwar-class (Krivak/Grigorovich)
- 3 x Project-17 Shivalik-class (upgraded)
All Project-16 and Project-16A FFGs will be retired by 2030 and replaced with Adm. Grigorovich and P-17A respectively. There is also the possibility that P-17A order will be increased to 9 vessels.
Corvettes >>
- 4 x Project-28 Kamorta-class
- 16 x ASW Corvettes
- 7 x Next-Generation Corvette (NGC)
- 6 x Next-Generation Missile Vessel (NGMV)
Additional Corvette contracts are likely, as are the possibility of Project-28 follow-on. But I don't know about them yet.
Flat Decks >>
- 1 x Project-71 Vikrant-class
- 1 x Vikramaditya (Adm. Gorshkov)
- 4 x LHDs (probably Juan Carlos I-class)
If we stick with existing plans and decide that the next indigenous carrier will be the ~65k ton CATOBAR, EMALS, Nuclear type, it's unlikely to be in service before 2030. However if IN seeks a sister-ship of the Vikrant-class, a 2nd IAC could be built of the same Project-71 class (or P-71A, whatever they decide to call it). This way, a 3rd carrier for IN is likely to atleast be in sea trials within 2030.
All 4 LHDs are likely to be service by 2030 only if the construction is split 2-2 between Spanish yards and a local one, and building starts at the same time, sometime within 2020.
I haven't included other surface types like FSSs, FRVs, OPVs, FAC/FAC-Ms, FPVs, IPVs etc.
Sub-surface vessels >>
- 3 x Arihant-class SSBN (S73)
- 2 x Akula-class SSN (considering lease period is extended)
- 1 or 2 indigenous SSN likely, more will be in sea trials, out of initially planned 6
- Atleast 1 of the bigger follow-on SSBN-class w/ atleast 12 x silos and K-5 intercontinental SLBM, out of atleast 3
- 8-9 x Project-75 Kalvari-class (Scorpene)
- Atleast 3 x of Project-75I (hopefully will be improved Scorpene with AIP), out of 6
All U209s will be retired and I won't be surprised if most/all of the Kilo-class fleet would also be retired or laid off.
Aviation >>
- 45 x MiG-29K Fulcrum
- Expect an order for between 50-80 Rafale-Ms
- 44-60 x Sikorsky S-70B-2 Seahawk
- 32 x Airbus H225M or Sikorsky CH-148 Cyclone (atleast)
- 24 x Dhruv ALH
Unknown numbers of additional light/medium MRHs like Panther, expect around 56 or something
- Upto 26-30 MPAs will be needed.
I'd be happy if the whole fleet is made up of P-8I Neptune, which would replace both the Il-38SD Sea Dragon and the Tu-142M Bear-F in their respective maritime patrol roles (the Tu-142 might go on to serve as a missile-carrier/research aircraft or go into storage). If a split-order of MPAs is preferred, it means a turboprop-based aircraft will be bought for closer-to-coast duties (Airbus C-295W). And ofcourse there's the need for 12 x ShinMaywa US-2i amphibious aircraft.
Acquisition of types like E-2D Advanced Hawkeye AEW and V-22 Osprey variants will depend upon the future carrier decision to some extent. But either way, Hawkeye is inevitable.
Also there will be a larger, more sophisticated fleet of UAVs and Space-based systems. Expect a constellation of reconnaissance, surveillance/spy sats dedicated for Navy/Armed Forces.
Missile Systems >>
- BrahMos-2K Scramjet-based ASCM (based off 3K22 Zircon) will be available, likely forming the tip of the spear as far as surface-dominance goes, will start replacing BrahMos Block-I on some frontline combatants.
- BrahMos-NG will be utilized by the smaller corvette-sized vessels (NGMV, NGC types).
- Nirbhay LACM will be there.
- DRDO-developed QRSAM would replace all Barak-1 PDMS units on pretty much all surface ships
- Barak-8 and future 8ER will be standardized across the fleet, other versions might be developed.
- Both the K-4 and K-5 SLBMs will be fully developed & ready. K-15 will be retired.
BMD? Too early to say now.
