Indian Navy Chief over Gwadar

[Energon]

The best euphemism can be sought to depict this statement is pathetic, if not ignorant.

As facts stand in history, when Pakistan was in need, Westerns did not wait a second to utilize the chance to either stand “neutral” or impose sanctions. It is China who provided the kinds of equipment to secure Pakistani national interest. When China was surrounded by hostile forces (late 80s for instance), it is Pakistan that provided China precious supports and a channel to the outside.

They are both beneficiaries of the relation. Probably you don’t know that in a recent web survey (non-governmental) of “Which country do you think is the friendliest to China”, Pakistan gets the #1 spot.

If there is any imbalance, that is the trade. I’d like to believe that once the Gwarda port and gas/oil pipes are in use, the goods and services provided to China will offset those into Pakistan substantially. Hopefully, a good profit sharing plan among Baluchistan people and among Pakistani in general will make the projects move forward smoothly.

None of this changes the fact that China is infact Pakistan's benefactor. The statement is not meant to pass any judgment, it is however a current geopolitical reality.

 

[Cheetah786]

India backed from IPI project because we are sure that Pakistan cannot provide security for the Oil Pipelines.

No india backed away cause of usa pressure its a well known fact.

 

[Cheetah786]

The relationship between China and Pakistan is that of a benefactor and a client state, and hence by default not "balanced". India and China are militarily adversarial with Pakistan serving as a remote staging base for the latter to potentially accost the former.

You mean Americans propping up India against china is different.

 

[Energon]

You mean Americans propping up India against china is different.

America has been unsuccessful in making India a client state despite a couple of fairly strong attempts; as did the old Soviet Union (granted they never tried overtly and aggressively as the USA).
IMO the population itself and the internal political scene is far too variant and chaotic to bring about a cohesion which is integral to having a realationship with a benefactor. Nonetheless, India is a completely different topic which probably deserves its own thread. I don't want to derail this one anymore through contrasts and comparisions between India and Pakistan.

 

[Bushroda]

No india backed away cause of usa pressure its a well known fact.

How do you know it was US pressure?

 

[TexasJohn]

OK! here is my 2 cents worth based on ONE simple rule of world dimplomacy:

Simple Rule #1. There are no permanent friends, only permanent National interests ( and Permanent neighbors).


I have read over the concept and implications of China's "string of pearls" and what it means to Nations in the "string".

New term, but really an old concept.

Here is a link of the USA's "string of pearls".

Major Military Bases World-Wide

They call them bases.

Guess what? every nation that is a "pearl" for the US is dependant on the "mother pearl" in some form or fashion - not really a client State, but dependant enough to make a difference, economicaly, militariily, or even as a defense partner.

It is important to remember that a superpower / emerging superpower, is smart enough to exploit "local quarels" to benefit itself. (see Simple rule #1)

Remember Iran? once an allied country - the ONLY other country to ever fly the F-14s?

Remember Vietnam - allied to China?

Or how about the Soviet States?

Were they not in their heyday an equal contender with their own client States?

Here is what I am getting at:

Both the US and China are looking at Gwadar REAL hard.

It's part of the "great game" that superpowers have the money and TIME to play with their 3rd world gullible and needy buddies.

Neither India or Pakistan should fall into this trap. They are PERMANENT neighbors.

Pi$$ing contest games between neighbors is just what the superpowers would like to see - suits them just fine!! Think about it, guys/gals.

Were not F-16 parts cut off?

Did China help in 1971 or Kargil?

We all went to school or college right? Did they teach us how to think or not?

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

The Gwadar Port will be an important trade and economic asset for Pakistan. It will be linked to Karachi, Pasni, Ormara and Turbat by roads. Already the construction of the Coastal Highway to Karachi is being done.

Pasni will be linked to Gupt on the Iranian border and the various road networks will connect China via the Indus Highway. Pakistan, China, Kazakhistan, Kyrgizstan and Uzbekistan are to develop extensive railroad links from Central Asia and the Chinese province of Sinkiang to the Arabian Sea Coast.

Thus, Gwadar from the economic point of view is of tremendous value to Pakistan, Given the trade hub that it becomes for the landlocked countries of Asia, as also an alternate route for China, the colossal amount of shipping that it will be handling catapults into the global strategic realm.

From the defence of Pakistan point of view, the fact that Gwadar is about 470 kms West of Karachi, a naval blockade, by the Indian Navy, in its current form, will be difficult to enforce, unlike the blockade of Karachi in 1971. The strategic import internationally can be gauged from the fact that 40 % of world’s oil flows through the Straits of Hormuz and it is 250 miles from Gwadar. Thus, the Pakistan Navy can, when it has adequately developed, blockade the Straits in pursuance of her own interest or in the interest of an ally! The article, "India's New Naval Ambition," DefenseNews, 7 June 2004 maybe perused.

It is of interest to note whether Pakistan’s Gwadar port or Iran’s Chabahar port, built with Indian assistance, will serve as Central Asia’s conduit to warm waters is also a contentious issue. In this context, the article “New Iranian Port to Hurt Gwadar Port's
Prospects,” Daily Times, 15 September 2003, Sarfaraz Ahmed, “The Latest Hotspot: Gwadar,”Daily Times, 5 May 2004 and “Navy to Build Base in Gwadar,” Daily Times, 19 April 2004 maybe read. It is also of note that Iran has also undertaken to link this port to China.

The strategic scene is not as simple as it appears. The Times of India report of February 19, 2002, indicated that leasing of Jacobabad (Sind) and Pasni (Baluchistan) to the US for the operations in Afghanistan has not been appreciated by China nor the allowing of the U.S. to establish listening posts in Pakistan's Northern Areas, which border Xinjiang and Tibet. China while undertaking financial and technical assistance for the project, has asked for "sovereign guarantees" to use the Port facilities to which Pakistan agreed. This has, in turn, not been appreciated by the U.S.

China is alarmed that the U.S. forces has projected itself into Asia nations via Afghanistan and fear that this is a plan to ring western China. Having no blue water navy to speak of, China feels defenceless in the Persian Gulf against any hostile action to choke off its energy supplies. This vulnerability has made Beijing explore alternative safe supply routes for its energy shipments. The planned Gwadar Deep Sea Port as also the Iranian Chabahar port is two options for China

While from the economic necessities, it is important for China to open up its western areas to the oilfields of the Middle East through pipelines, roads and ports, it still remains a matter of disquiet for her. Opening up Xinjiang, an area of 635,833 square miles, which is more than twice the size of Pakistan, and one-sixth of China's landmass to the six Muslim countries of Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan makes it vulnerable to problem with the Uighur Moslem separatist movement (The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM)). Despite China’s massive investment in Xinjiang, the displacement of Uighurs from Urumqi, Xinjiang's capital, is causing unrest, where the population of mainland Chinese of Han descent has grown from 10% in 1949 to 41% in 2004. In direct proportion, the population of native Uighurs has declined from 90% in 1949 to 47% in 2004. Tens of thousands of displaced Uighurs have found refuge in Pakistan where the majority of them live in its two most populous cities: Lahore and Karachi. These Uighurs are open to influence of the radical elements in Pakistan and that does give rise to concerns of China. However, in this context it must also be noted that ETIM's head, Hasan Mahsum, in South Waziristan was killed on October 2, 2004. That the ETIM has a presence to create problems in Pakistan was evident that seven day later, two Chinese were captured and one died during the rescue operations. China is seriously concerned about the ETIM presence in Pakistan and that is why it was immensely concerned and upset over the Chinese being kidnapped and forced the Pakistan govt to act with alacrity.

From the Indian point of view, Gwadar, thus becomes important with this input to the ones given earlier.

Texas John's post is pertinent for understanding the strategic compulsions.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

I think that gwadar port is one more reason for india to resolve its issues with pakistan. One of these days india will have to reconsider its relationship with pakistan---its narrowmindedness will have to give way to a broad minded statesmanship.

Chabahar is well and good till the U S sanctions hit iran.
Gwadar is still in the arabian sea---a far more suitable inlet into the heart of asia.

I believe that 'string of pearls' is a very old chinese term describing the domain outposts in the vast reaches of the old empire.

For india---"jaw jaw is better than war war".

 

[mujahideen]

Hi,

I think that gwadar port is one more reason for india to resolve its issues with pakistan. One of these days india will have to reconsider its relationship with pakistan---its narrowmindedness will have to give way to a broad minded statesmanship.

Chabahar is well and good till the U S sanctions hit iran.
Gwadar is still in the arabian sea---a far more suitable inlet into the heart of asia.

I believe that 'string of pearls' is a very old chinese term describing the domain outposts in the vast reaches of the old empire.

For india---"jaw jaw is better than war war".

Well said.

 

[MOSABJA]

GWADAR not only has strategic implications for india but for the whole world.

1) It would give the emerging duper power china a great advantage to shorten their trade route and also make it safe and protect it from the shadow of TAIWAN,JAPAN and US.

2) it would upset countries like Japan,Taiwan who have rivalry with China .
3) It would also upset Iran cuz there hormuz port would be rendered use less.

4) It would upset Indians cuz it would choke their oil Supplies in a TIT for TAT for the pakistani rivers coming from kashmir.It would be harder for them to seal GWADAR.

5) it would reduce pak's economic dependence on WEST and pak would freely pursuit its interests in Afghanistan with out the Western pressure which would upset whole war on terror collation.

6) The UPSET nations like US NATO INDIA ISRAEL IRAN GULF would try to support BLA and make things difficult for pakistan.

7)In return Pakistan will be forced to support TALIBAN to Throw the NATO out from AFGHANISTAN to PROTECT BALOCHISTAN and thus there would be a BIG WAR IN AFGHANISTAN.

8) All pakistan needs to do is to
*Give Baluchis full autonomy and rights
*keep strict eye on BLA.
*If UPSET NATIONS meddle too much then use the TRUMP CARD OF TALIBAN to save Balochistan.
*Encourage chinese investment in Balochistan.
* Try to solve the UIGHUR problem peace fully.Convince chinese to be SOFT with Uighurs and get a fatwaa from religious people makin CHINA A DARULAMAN(secure land) for Muslims .Also convince Taliban to have good relations with CHINA.

 

[KENT]

Thats what i wanted to put into the head of that KENT which he failed to understand.

Backbitting! afterall what can expect from you man.

What was you were trying to push below my throat that Chabber port is seasonal port during the monsoon? Oh my goodness, I think you are still living in Black and White Era.

Apart from trade the strategic usgae of Gwadar is so much so that it has even sent US sleepless.

What makes you think that Gwadar port will cause sleepless night to US? Are you forgotten the immense leverage of US on Pakistani policies?

BUt at last despite opposition and chaos made in Balochistan by these vested intrests Gwadar is completed and Musharraf deserve all the praise for it.

whatever!

 

[KENT]

GWADAR not only has strategic implications for india but for the whole world.


4) It would upset Indians cuz it would choke their oil Supplies in a TIT for TAT for the pakistani rivers coming from kashmir.It would be harder for them to seal GWADAR.

What exactly makes you think that India will going to choke the rivers flowing in Pakistan from Kashmir?

To do the mischief strangling oil supplies of india you need powerful Navy which you lacks right now, Have you forgotten India has making its presence felt in Chabhar of Iran?

 

[KENT]

Hi,

I think that gwadar port is one more reason for india to resolve its issues with pakistan.

Gwadar port still hasn't so far created the kind of a turbulence that can shake Indian intentions.

One of these days india will have to reconsider its relationship with pakistan--

Indian always promoted the relationship of Peaceful co-existence with pakistan, so question reconsideration of relationship with pakistan doesn't arises just because of Gwadar Port?

-its narrowmindedness will have to give way to a broad minded statesmanship.

Because of same Narrowmindedness of India, Pakistan ran to built Gwadar Port to prevent any bloacklade during eventualities by India.

Chabahar is well and good till the U S sanctions hit iran.

Which world are you living in? US sanction on Iran have been prevaling in since last several years?

Gwadar is still in the arabian sea---a far more suitable inlet into the heart of asia.

Still it doesn't have the kind of capability that can seriously shake the interest of countries situated around Gwadar.

For india---"jaw jaw is better than war war".

War never dominated the agenda of India while establishing positive relationship pakistan. Since India is not fool to consider war as answer for every problem, it know how to contain a particuler elements when it threat India's interest in the southasian region.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

GWADAR not only has strategic implications for india but for the whole world.

1) It would give the emerging duper power china a great advantage to shorten their trade route and also make it safe and protect it from the shadow of TAIWAN,JAPAN and US.

2) it would upset countries like Japan,Taiwan who have rivalry with China .
3) It would also upset Iran cuz there hormuz port would be rendered use less.

4) It would upset Indians cuz it would choke their oil Supplies in a TIT for TAT for the pakistani rivers coming from kashmir.It would be harder for them to seal GWADAR.

5) it would reduce pak's economic dependence on WEST and pak would freely pursuit its interests in Afghanistan with out the Western pressure which would upset whole war on terror collation.

6) The UPSET nations like US NATO INDIA ISRAEL IRAN GULF would try to support BLA and make things difficult for pakistan.

7)In return Pakistan will be forced to support TALIBAN to Throw the NATO out from AFGHANISTAN to PROTECT BALOCHISTAN and thus there would be a BIG WAR IN AFGHANISTAN.

8) All pakistan needs to do is to
*Give Baluchis full autonomy and rights
*keep strict eye on BLA.
*If UPSET NATIONS meddle too much then use the TRUMP CARD OF TALIBAN to save Balochistan.
*Encourage chinese investment in Balochistan.
* Try to solve the UIGHUR problem peace fully.Convince chinese to be SOFT with Uighurs and get a fatwaa from religious people makin CHINA A DARULAMAN(secure land) for Muslims .Also convince Taliban to have good relations with CHINA.

Valid issues.

Indeed that alternate routes of oil through Gwadar to China or the direct route from CAR to China are options China has embarked on so as to ensure the security of her energy needs, circumventing the tenuous and possibly dangerous sea route manifested with uncerainty.

However, the issue of Iranian ports not being feasible for China to exploit is debatable. It must be remembered the China is a sharp customer and has been very reluctant to join the UNSC bandwagon to impose sanctions on Iran. Therefore, China has foreclosed nothing. Notwithstanding the pressure on Iran, China has won them over with this reluctance displayed to join the sanction bandwagon.

The land route may be shorter if one merely stops at the Chinese border in Xinjiang. However, the industries are in Mainland China and it is still a very long route, though safe. The economics of a land route over mountainous terrain, some of which is the most difficult is a matter for bookkeeping. China, has no spare cash to squander, given her race to equal the US as a superpower.

It is a valid point that countries inimical to China would encourage the Balochis to keep the pot boiling as Zia said - at the right temperature,when he embarked with the Mujahideens in Afghanistan.

As far as anyone throwing out the US and NATO from Afghanistan, that is just not possible. The US strategic interest in Afghanistan precludes their being ousted by any country on earth. They will find ways to ensure their presence. In this context, unlike what happened to the Soviets, there is no superpower assisting the successors to the Mujahideens and neither Russia nor China would intervene in a big way since they would be the last ones to allow the Islamic fundamentalists to get an upper hand, their own nations being under threat from the same elements. In fact, they would like the US as also the Taliban kept off balance by keeping the pot on the boil at the right temperature!

The tit for tat with the Indian Navy may not be feasible given the force ratios. But then, who knows?

Dependence on the West will always be there since the markets are in those countries for cheaper quality goods that is being produced. China has no requirement since they produce even more cheaper goods than any country and the other markets are not worth the consideration.

Solving the Uighur problem would require the assistance of all Islamic fundamentalist forces, and I would most humbly state that Pakistan, as it is claimed by the Pakistan govt, is not the source of terrorism and thus you may like to reconsider if Pakistan can solve the Uighur problem, when she, herself, is not the originator of the problem!

Pakistan cannot convince the Taliban since the Taliban itself is an anti Pakistan force! Or else, they would not have undertaken the carnage, mayhem and chaos that they are perpetuating in Pakistan.

 

[Contrarian]

3 things come to mind when talking about Gwadar...

1. Chabahar will compete as an equal to Gwadar. Which one becomes more successful is a matter of debate and geopolitics. I have read arguments and articles supporting each over the other.

But one thing will be certain, the full aim of Gwadar would not be realized, because Chabahar, whether it will be as successful or not, will certainly take away a MAJOR chunk of Gwadar's business.

2. I have said earlier , stop day dreaming that the Chinese Navy will station at Gwadar. Gwadar is of economic significance primarily and of military significance secondarily.

3. With India's access to Chabahar, Pakistan cannot, even if wants to restrict or choke off oil supplies in Hormuz. There are just TOO many vested interests there.
And on this, the way IN is being funded for expansion, its quite phenomenal, then you see, PN, its a stark contrast. There is simply no way for PN to effectively cut off any supplies in Hormuz against India.

What Gwadar actually does in military sense, is make it much harder for IN to blockade Pakistan's sea routes like in 71. BUT, you also have to consider, the IN will be FAR bigger and FAR more technologically advanced than in 71. So you cannot anticipate one way or another. Who knows, whether IN might have the assets to block both.