SABRE
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Gwadar port, given the current situation, is only suitable for China and not the CARs since Afghanistan is in no position to allow transit and the present govt is not very amenable towards Pakistan.
Again the Bharak Karnad mentality. Not looking beyond the present & the animosity. The situation in Afghanistan is a major problem but that does not wipe out the importance of these routs & ports. The issue is of getting oil & gas pipe-lines through Afghanistan as for the rest (even though shortest travel rout is through Afghanistan) the ancient silk rout is being reconnected between Pakistan, China & CARs. If you haven't read its not just Karakoram Highway that is the connecting point but also the railways are being laid down. So the plans remain intact.
India too has greater economic & strategic interests in CARs. The strategic interests were checked by the SCO while Economic interestests are marred by geographic dis-contiguity. The only connecting point between CARs & India is Pakistan (for economic rout). It is in Indian favor to actually cooperate with Pakistan on these terms.
Plus, though the Pakistani governments primary objective is to have economic influence on CARs via providing them ports, Gwadar is not just about Central Asia. It has lot more to it.
Conversely, Iran has not fomented any Shia upsurge in Afghanistan and hence the relationship of the govts are not volatile, though the US influence cannot be ruled out.
In the event, there is a necessity for Afghanistan to boost its economy by allowing transit facilities to CAR from the Arabian Sea and the US permits the same, Afghanistan has to look to Iran since the situation in areas bordering Pakistan is a 'no go' because of the turmoil, while that towards Iran is relatively calm.
You do realize that the biggest threat to Shiaism in the region is from Afghan sunnism. If anything Iran is as displeased by Afghanistan as any other country.
Their relations have been record low under Hakmatyar govt & than under Taliban. & right now as you your self said the Americans are present so you can guess. They are resenting the IPI gas-pipeline but cant do anything but as far as Afghan affairs are concerned, well I believe they have direct decision making powers there.
Ethnically, culturally, linguistically & religiously Afghans are more close to Pakistan than anyone else & regardless of current tensions the only hope for Afghans has been Pakistan. Even today if they have to run they come to Pakistan.
Your understanding comes from what you read, we actually see this stuff 1st hand.
Unless, the Pashtuns are controlled, calmed and made peaceable, the importance of Gwadar over Chabahar is certainly diminished in so far as being a trading hub and an opening to the sea for landlocked countries.
Chabahar is strategically more important since it located right at the mouth of the Straits of Hormuz and thus can control shipping in the event there is a naval strength worthy of note, be it of any country.
Even if it was at the way open mouth of Hormuz the question would always remain who is going to port there? Not the major oil consumer states like USA & USA would certainly not like its Europeans allies to dock there. Americans don't go beyond UAE ports. On the other hand Gwadar provides them open mouth away from Iran. The Americans ships have just recently been harassed by the Iranians at Hormuz.
In so far as gas being projected to Pakistan over Iran by Qatar and Oman, one does not carry coals to Newcastle. The Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said here Saturday that Iran holds 27.5 trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves. (Oil Minister: Iran owns 27.5 trillion cm of proven gas reserves).
You didn't get the grasp did you? Pakistan too has its gas reserves & the one in use still has 15 years life in it. Qatar is into the straight of Hormoz, as I said ships have trouble maneuvering there, especially since many of them have to avoid Iran. Thats why Qatar wants oil & gas pipe-line to go through Pakistan.
The pipe-line from Qatar is to travel to KSA into UAE into Oman & from there via sea to Pakistan's Gwadar. Though Oman itself is open its Musandam is into the straight of Hormuz , hence Oman wants to inject its gas pipe-line into the Qatar's pipe-line.
The other state which has been invited is Bahrain since its way into Hormuz.
These Middle Eastern states can send their pipelines directly to Dubai but there suspicion on Iran is growing & want open ports, for which they believe Gwadar is better option - Out of narrow Hormoz ... Open & away from Iranian threats.
If you go to Dubai & you know some big business people ask them about Gwadar. The Dubai investors themselves are very much interested in working via Gwadar (which the state of Dubai doesn't like). The Sharjah & Abu Zehbi have already started investment in Karachi & Gwadar. Their big business such as Al-Etihad, Emaar, Wateen, etc groups have already established themselves here. In fact, the UAE based Indians are moving here.
Now are they all fools to come to Gwadar & Karachi & leave Iranian ports? There are geo-strategic & geo-political factors at play here.
When India and Pakistan were in an eyeball armed "peace", nothing substantial occurred that made foreign capital leave India.
What were you sleeping or weren't born in 2001? The state department told the Americans to leave India & Pakistan ASAP & that was "LIVE" telecast.
After that began the Gates Mission.
Another "good thing" was that the Indian businessmen got pissed & pressured government to make peace with Pakistan - not only because their business was being harmed but also they see Pakistan as big market (with 6 most populas country)
The issue is not a nuclear war, but a naval blockade as in 1971.
If there is a nuclear war, then who will be left to worry?
There would a lot of people to worry.
Why should India hinder oil supply to other nations? In a scenario of the unlikely fresh Indo Pak conflict, it will be to hinder Pakistan and not the world. In fact, hindering the world of its oil will be totally irrational.
Much of world's oil goes through Arabian Sea, into the Indian Ocean & than around the world. When you fight in the Arabian sea than wouldn't this impact the ships carrying oil? Wouldn't they avoid coming to conflict zone? It would be Pakistani water so all the int. pressure would be on India to move out not on Pakistan.
As far as naval warfare is concerned all facets be in air, sea or undersea is taken care of by the flotilla sailing. If they don't cater for the same, then there would be something drastically wrong. One does not expose capital ships for target practice. At least, that is not the teaching in the Indian Navy.
Is that why an Indian Submarine collided with a cargo ship in the Arabian Sea?
As far as Operation Brasstack or Operation Parakrama is concerned, it was not due to Pakistan that they were scaled down. So, giving Zia credit is misplaced.
Ah ... come out of the Indian books. Not only Zia wounded the Indians he poured salt on it by visiting India soon after to see cricket match. Its an open case, even discussed at international level. I think Kings College London professors carried out a small study on Zia's strategy.
It would be interesting if you could post some of the commentaries of the Iranian think tanks who feel Gwadar is a better spin off for Iran to its own ports.
I can but what would you give for jumping into pile of 1000s of pages for hours to look for only few pages? (really I would need something, jokes apart)
No one is stating in India that one has to go to war. It is indeed wonderful to know that you move around with Pakistani strategist. That way, it will be most beneficial to know their views if you post them. Actually, those who deal with wars or have been in actual wars, are the real ones who hate it with all their heart since they have experienced the death and destruction that is so glorified by those who sit back and clap!
Well their input is to make friends with India, become dependent on each other which will decrease the chances of war & conflict. That is why they are heavily pursuing Conflict Aviodance Measure (CAMs) & Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) & Strengthening the peace.
& these measures have actually been laid down by former military men.
I cant say same is from Indian side but there is a relaxed approach compared to what we have seen in the past.
Though I have not understood as to how India benefits from Gwadar. The day China has a Blue water Navy capability, she will not sit back in their ports and allow their boats to rust their serviceable life!
Think of it. India doesn't have to enter Hormoz & waste fuel while it can dock at Gwadar or Karachi. From Gwadar/Karachi to Bombay/Ahmedabad is a very short rout. This saves lots of money.
India can get the extension of pipe-lines at Gwadar into India (Like IPI).
CARs trade to India can take place via Gwadar but it would much feasible to provide them land rout into India.
Indian businessmen can invest in Gwadar & Karachi which in turn would be beneficial to the region. This is better for both countries than going to UAE & investing money there which only ends up in the benefits of Arabs & Westerners - though we do get good amount of money.
China going blue water doesn't matter. Indian business at Gwadar also insures heavy benefits for China. Plus Chinese won't think India as a threat to its interest in the Arabian Sea. It will cater to its own interest while India to cater to its own.
So far I don't see this happening though, sadly enough. Of all the things US probably wont like Pak-China-India economic patch up.
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Just a small thing I would like to add. Don't think that I am undermining any Indian here. There are different ways to look at things. Even if Iranian ports have better location you have to think how it is in favor of India or everyone else? From any point of the world you enter the Arabian Sea & move towards the Hormoz the nearest ports will always be Gwadar & Karachi. Would you prefer to save fuel & time there or waste it going into the Hormoz? This is especially a concern many western ships which have to avoid Iranians in the Hormoz.
& the military idea behind Gwadar is to have strategic depth & move away from India in a way that India itself does not prefer to attack it. See during the war both sides would no doubt try to attack each other's ports to neutralize each other's naval strikes. But since India would not like to hinder its own trade & oil supply in the Middle East (UAE, Qatar, Oman & Bahrain) it would not make any naval ventures there.
What does this imply? This implies that Gwadar has "deterrent value" not aggressive. The objective is not to block Indian trade in any case, its just to send signals to India that this is not the place you want to mess at. The Indian concerns at Gwadar is not Pakistan's capability to block Indian trade but the presence of Chinese & that is something India will have to live with.