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I hope we can discuss Indian Foreign Policy in a comprehensive manner, how has our foreign policy evolved over the ages and changes happening under Modi - some of them seismic in nature and some of them gradual evolution of pre-existing policy.
Introduction
India's economy dependence on foreign trade and imports of energy is close to 50% hence the importance of what goes on beyond our borders cannot be under-stated. British Raj had left India with a dubious legacy - primacy in subcontinent and subsequent governments have tried their best to sustain it with varying degree of successes and failures.
To paraphrase Mr. Doval our current NSA, India's performance though on the global arena has consistently been of Boxer punching below his weight. However today we see that Modi has managed to infuse new energy to global engagements and put diplomacy to work for the cause of our economy.
Historical Background
Our first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was the architect of of pillars of Indian policy which have stood the test of time. It emphasized peace and harmonious relations with all countries and India finding its rightful place in the post-colonial world in keeping with its size and geostrategic location. Under Nehru's stewardship India was like a naive and idealistic college student. Nehru went to UN for Kashmir believing in sanctity of the newly formed multilateral forum and that blunder of his left an ever festering wound in sub-continent known as Kashmir. Our first introduction to the Adult Word was in form 1962 bringing home the concept of Real Politik
From Nehru’s time foreign policy became prime minister-centric and has continued so, though the practice of appointing separate minister to look after external affairs came in vogue in 1964. Nehru's successors were not visionary of the similar caliber but neither as naive. They were largely tied up with internal politics with Pakistan being the sole attention of their outward gaze. As a result country grew more inward looking. Though we adhered to much cherished ideals of Nehruvian Non Alignment and Panchsheel and avoided much of the Cold War contretemps, the socialist favor imparted by Nehru to India naturally bought us closer to USSR.
India under Narendra Damodardas Modi
Prime Minister Modi is perhaps the first prime minister in a long time who has spelt out his vision for India, soon after he assumed office in May 2014. He articulated it in his Independence Day on August 15, 2014.
Modi revived Indian major power aspirations and raised extraordinary expectations; a leading intellectual in Singapore wrote that we have had a glimpse of what India as a world power would look like, and this view is indeed seductive. Partition, the Cold War, Disintegration of Soviet Union, Nuclear Tests, Sanctions, Self -Inflicted economic Isolation had dealt a blow to India's efforts to pursue the building of strategic unity of South Asia, and the government needs a strategy to build on India’s “geographic advantage, economic complementarity, historic role as regional security provider and shared cultural inheritance”.
He wishes to make India’s contacts with neighbours routine and not exceptional, and recognises the various island-nations’ strategic positions in the Indian Ocean. India has to construct maritime power and close partnerships in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Some Major Highlights of 15 months
Nepal: Adopting a “strategy of positive unilateralism”, in Nepal Modi has himself volunteered a review of the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship to reflect the current realities.
Bangladesh: Historic accord of Land Boundary Agreement, thus indicating such disputes are not insurmountable.
China: China is a very complex problem for India, it forces us to reanalyze our long held pre-sumptions about India's role as an dominant power in region. India cannot prevent Chinese influence from increasing in our immediate neighboring countries and economic co-operation with China often seems like a one way street.
Modi has overruled the dominant public opinion, political class and security establishment by pushing forward in ties with China and liberalizing Visa- Regime unilaterally for Chinese visitors. In return he expected to leverage roaring Chinese economy to invest and initiate overland trade corridors to accelerate Indian growth but the reality is a mixed bag. On some issues close to Indian interest, China has consistently proved itself to be a hurdle.
Modi thus for now seems to have decided that both contesting and co-operating with China is the way ahead. Thus you India joining SCO with Chinese co-operation but India has also contested Chinese power projection in SCS by sending naval assets to Vietnam and overruling Chinese objection on operation Malabar.
USA: With the USA, “there will be some issues on which India will be closer to America — for example, on how to reduce tensions in the South China Sea”. As the most business-friendly Prime Minister India has ever had, Modi has set a wide agenda with the US, which includes climate change and trade facilitation. He is convinced that a strong partnership with the USA is in India’s long-term interests, and Washington appears to share that view. His engagement with diaspora has immense potential to leverage the often ignored but extremely potent instrument of extended Indian Foreign Service. The last PM to grasp this fact was Atal Bihari Vajpeyee and who levraged the Indian American community to ensure quick roll-back of sanction
Australia and Pacific Island: Modi is one of rare Indian leaders who sought engagement with Australia and the Pacific islands in defence and security matters.
Gulf and Middle East: Modi had it's work cut out in Gulf and Middle East in form of three powers with varying degree of hostility towards each other but each holding immense importance for India in form of economic,energy and defense security.
For now Modi has tried to be it's diplomatic best and extracted some pretty unexpected investment and concessions from UAE. Confirmed trips to Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia is sure to test the best of jugglers but Modi seems quite adroit in these this game.
Modi has clearly signaled that BJP and GoI will move ahead with closer and overt ties with Israel which is evidenced by his upcoming trip (first by any Indian PM) to Israel. Israel holds special importance for National Security aspects and and has come forth with unrestricted support and collaboration on technologies long denied to India. Intelligence sharing is another key avenue where you see India and Israel quietly but surely reaching new heights.
India's historic ties with Iran has cooled off recently due to many factors but one of them being India's growing closeness with Israel and main challenge for Modi to employ his charm offensive to convert Iran to Indian cause along with some major investments in energy projects, ports, highways etc to ensure Iran does not leave replace India completely with China thus denying India an important strategic toe-hold in Chabahar which is of utmost significance for Indian plans in Afganishtan and energy security.
Pakistan: There had been really no breakthrough in our relations with Pakistan, though Prime Minister Modi’s invitation to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for his inauguration and meeting thereafter kindled hopes of improvement in the relationship. But unfortunately, such hopes have been belied. In fact it has worsened with the escalation in ceasefire violations, terrorist infiltrations and attacks triggering of separatist agitations in Jammu and Kashmir, even spilling over to neighbouring Punjab.
With Pakistan, Modi is yet “some distance from crafting a coherent strategy” but by rejecting the involvement of the Hurriyat, Modi places the Kashmir question back in a strictly bilateral interface.
UFA was major debacle or ingenious diplomatic win depending on how you look at it, but the truth is India has successfully maintained the status-quo and at the same time placating China and US who were pressing India to talk to Pakistan. In addition we got SCO membership out of the whole farce so not altogether a loss.
Conclusion
Modi has shook up the dormant Indian Foreign Policy which has been pretty much reactionary in Manmohan Singh's era, but without yet a set of coherent over-arching principles. He has managed to get some big promises for investment from Japan, USA and China but their delivery woould be contingent to improvement of domestic conditions in form of less red-tape, passage of Bills like GST and Land Reform Agreement and improving infrastructure. Domestic hurdles thus can become a major road-block to Modi's economy driven foreign policy and this is the area where he should devote his political capital to ensure his successes abroad get a lifeline at home.
Prime Minister’s agenda reveals potentials as well as dangers; the economy looks uncertain and social harmony precarious. He confronts xenophobia on his right and anti-west tendencies on his left. There is weak domestic consensus for radical reform and over-confidence among his extremist supporters. There is a long way to travel to get over the negative legacy of the Manmohan Singh era, when too much power was leached to the media, judiciary and regulators.
Modi’s foreign policy is a breath of fresh air, but foreign policy must be constructed on a combination of aspirations and capability. The aspirations for global status are obvious, but Delhi’s “ability to turn words into deeds has been less than impressive.Small reforms have been in homoeopathic doses. Modi has to deliver quickly but ranged against him are political and bureaucratic inertia and lack of institutional capacity.
Regards
Revisiting India’s Foreign Policy Under Modi – Q&A | Eurasia Review
Modi’s foreign policy is imaginative and truly dynamic: Former diplomat - Firstpost
PM Narendra Modi's leap of vision: Is India ready for a larger role? - timesofindia-economictimes
Multiple Articles in Statesman, Hindustan Times,
@SarthakGanguly @Slav Defence @WAJsal @Oscar
@Syed.Ali.Haider
Introduction
India's economy dependence on foreign trade and imports of energy is close to 50% hence the importance of what goes on beyond our borders cannot be under-stated. British Raj had left India with a dubious legacy - primacy in subcontinent and subsequent governments have tried their best to sustain it with varying degree of successes and failures.
To paraphrase Mr. Doval our current NSA, India's performance though on the global arena has consistently been of Boxer punching below his weight. However today we see that Modi has managed to infuse new energy to global engagements and put diplomacy to work for the cause of our economy.
Historical Background
Our first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was the architect of of pillars of Indian policy which have stood the test of time. It emphasized peace and harmonious relations with all countries and India finding its rightful place in the post-colonial world in keeping with its size and geostrategic location. Under Nehru's stewardship India was like a naive and idealistic college student. Nehru went to UN for Kashmir believing in sanctity of the newly formed multilateral forum and that blunder of his left an ever festering wound in sub-continent known as Kashmir. Our first introduction to the Adult Word was in form 1962 bringing home the concept of Real Politik
From Nehru’s time foreign policy became prime minister-centric and has continued so, though the practice of appointing separate minister to look after external affairs came in vogue in 1964. Nehru's successors were not visionary of the similar caliber but neither as naive. They were largely tied up with internal politics with Pakistan being the sole attention of their outward gaze. As a result country grew more inward looking. Though we adhered to much cherished ideals of Nehruvian Non Alignment and Panchsheel and avoided much of the Cold War contretemps, the socialist favor imparted by Nehru to India naturally bought us closer to USSR.
India under Narendra Damodardas Modi
Prime Minister Modi is perhaps the first prime minister in a long time who has spelt out his vision for India, soon after he assumed office in May 2014. He articulated it in his Independence Day on August 15, 2014.
Modi revived Indian major power aspirations and raised extraordinary expectations; a leading intellectual in Singapore wrote that we have had a glimpse of what India as a world power would look like, and this view is indeed seductive. Partition, the Cold War, Disintegration of Soviet Union, Nuclear Tests, Sanctions, Self -Inflicted economic Isolation had dealt a blow to India's efforts to pursue the building of strategic unity of South Asia, and the government needs a strategy to build on India’s “geographic advantage, economic complementarity, historic role as regional security provider and shared cultural inheritance”.
He wishes to make India’s contacts with neighbours routine and not exceptional, and recognises the various island-nations’ strategic positions in the Indian Ocean. India has to construct maritime power and close partnerships in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Some Major Highlights of 15 months
Nepal: Adopting a “strategy of positive unilateralism”, in Nepal Modi has himself volunteered a review of the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship to reflect the current realities.
Bangladesh: Historic accord of Land Boundary Agreement, thus indicating such disputes are not insurmountable.
China: China is a very complex problem for India, it forces us to reanalyze our long held pre-sumptions about India's role as an dominant power in region. India cannot prevent Chinese influence from increasing in our immediate neighboring countries and economic co-operation with China often seems like a one way street.
Modi has overruled the dominant public opinion, political class and security establishment by pushing forward in ties with China and liberalizing Visa- Regime unilaterally for Chinese visitors. In return he expected to leverage roaring Chinese economy to invest and initiate overland trade corridors to accelerate Indian growth but the reality is a mixed bag. On some issues close to Indian interest, China has consistently proved itself to be a hurdle.
Modi thus for now seems to have decided that both contesting and co-operating with China is the way ahead. Thus you India joining SCO with Chinese co-operation but India has also contested Chinese power projection in SCS by sending naval assets to Vietnam and overruling Chinese objection on operation Malabar.
USA: With the USA, “there will be some issues on which India will be closer to America — for example, on how to reduce tensions in the South China Sea”. As the most business-friendly Prime Minister India has ever had, Modi has set a wide agenda with the US, which includes climate change and trade facilitation. He is convinced that a strong partnership with the USA is in India’s long-term interests, and Washington appears to share that view. His engagement with diaspora has immense potential to leverage the often ignored but extremely potent instrument of extended Indian Foreign Service. The last PM to grasp this fact was Atal Bihari Vajpeyee and who levraged the Indian American community to ensure quick roll-back of sanction
Australia and Pacific Island: Modi is one of rare Indian leaders who sought engagement with Australia and the Pacific islands in defence and security matters.
Gulf and Middle East: Modi had it's work cut out in Gulf and Middle East in form of three powers with varying degree of hostility towards each other but each holding immense importance for India in form of economic,energy and defense security.
For now Modi has tried to be it's diplomatic best and extracted some pretty unexpected investment and concessions from UAE. Confirmed trips to Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia is sure to test the best of jugglers but Modi seems quite adroit in these this game.
Modi has clearly signaled that BJP and GoI will move ahead with closer and overt ties with Israel which is evidenced by his upcoming trip (first by any Indian PM) to Israel. Israel holds special importance for National Security aspects and and has come forth with unrestricted support and collaboration on technologies long denied to India. Intelligence sharing is another key avenue where you see India and Israel quietly but surely reaching new heights.
India's historic ties with Iran has cooled off recently due to many factors but one of them being India's growing closeness with Israel and main challenge for Modi to employ his charm offensive to convert Iran to Indian cause along with some major investments in energy projects, ports, highways etc to ensure Iran does not leave replace India completely with China thus denying India an important strategic toe-hold in Chabahar which is of utmost significance for Indian plans in Afganishtan and energy security.
Pakistan: There had been really no breakthrough in our relations with Pakistan, though Prime Minister Modi’s invitation to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for his inauguration and meeting thereafter kindled hopes of improvement in the relationship. But unfortunately, such hopes have been belied. In fact it has worsened with the escalation in ceasefire violations, terrorist infiltrations and attacks triggering of separatist agitations in Jammu and Kashmir, even spilling over to neighbouring Punjab.
With Pakistan, Modi is yet “some distance from crafting a coherent strategy” but by rejecting the involvement of the Hurriyat, Modi places the Kashmir question back in a strictly bilateral interface.
UFA was major debacle or ingenious diplomatic win depending on how you look at it, but the truth is India has successfully maintained the status-quo and at the same time placating China and US who were pressing India to talk to Pakistan. In addition we got SCO membership out of the whole farce so not altogether a loss.
Conclusion
Modi has shook up the dormant Indian Foreign Policy which has been pretty much reactionary in Manmohan Singh's era, but without yet a set of coherent over-arching principles. He has managed to get some big promises for investment from Japan, USA and China but their delivery woould be contingent to improvement of domestic conditions in form of less red-tape, passage of Bills like GST and Land Reform Agreement and improving infrastructure. Domestic hurdles thus can become a major road-block to Modi's economy driven foreign policy and this is the area where he should devote his political capital to ensure his successes abroad get a lifeline at home.
Prime Minister’s agenda reveals potentials as well as dangers; the economy looks uncertain and social harmony precarious. He confronts xenophobia on his right and anti-west tendencies on his left. There is weak domestic consensus for radical reform and over-confidence among his extremist supporters. There is a long way to travel to get over the negative legacy of the Manmohan Singh era, when too much power was leached to the media, judiciary and regulators.
Modi’s foreign policy is a breath of fresh air, but foreign policy must be constructed on a combination of aspirations and capability. The aspirations for global status are obvious, but Delhi’s “ability to turn words into deeds has been less than impressive.Small reforms have been in homoeopathic doses. Modi has to deliver quickly but ranged against him are political and bureaucratic inertia and lack of institutional capacity.
Regards
Revisiting India’s Foreign Policy Under Modi – Q&A | Eurasia Review
Modi’s foreign policy is imaginative and truly dynamic: Former diplomat - Firstpost
PM Narendra Modi's leap of vision: Is India ready for a larger role? - timesofindia-economictimes
Multiple Articles in Statesman, Hindustan Times,
@SarthakGanguly @Slav Defence @WAJsal @Oscar
@Syed.Ali.Haider
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