THIS is the problem exactly. Unfortunately, given the asymmetry between Pakistan and Indian forces there's hardly a chance for war being initiated from our side and if the Indians are smart their side either. Neither one of us can overwhelm the other conventionally.
Although there are many great things Imran Khan has done, his obsession with peace and "reasonableness" has cost us. The other side has to calculate the odds and with him its an easy calculation. There is a 0% chance he would order a nuclear strike on India, akin to what Musharaff alluded to with a pre-emptive 50 nukes, including on Indian launch sites to disable them. Realistically, that would be the only way we could win as then the asymmetry would be towards us. Truthfully, the chances of any sane person doing that is close to zero. I would argue we need someone in power who's perceived likelihood to do this would be greater. Not Zaid Hamid greater, but even 0.5% is enough to deter. Historically maybe Musharaf would have been at 0.5%, he certainly didn't shy away from its use and didn't repeatedly call it "madness" as Imran Khan did. Unfortunately Bajwa is in a similar mould to Imran Khan making the calculation easy.
It is such a difficult situation which Pakistan is doing the best that it can with. Modi and gov are hoping this move, lack of international outcry and demoralization will lead to Pakistan and the Kashmiris to accept this reality. The problem is with 99% opposition in the Valley and putting even their stooges in jail will not lead to acceptance. It never has historically for muslims. Maybe they are projecting themselves as the last 1000 years had them subjugated and accepting of humiliation by Muslim/Sikh/British rule. Even if Pakistan is not able to help the people of Kashmir directly, locally they will fight against the Indians joining whatever extremist organizations. Maybe that's what they want in order to brand the struggle as "terrorism."
In this situation, knowing the Indians, I feel the only hope is China. If we increase the pressure on our side and then have China move some forces (Doklam, Aksai Chin), even a few divisions close to Indian borders may cause them to poop their pants as they definitely could not sustain the pressure, especially if combined with nuclear sabre rattling by us. The issue is would they then reverse this order? Theres no guarantee of that. Although how quickly they accepted the drubbing and embarrassment in Febuary makes one somewhat more optimistic then the current scenario. This is asking alot of our ally though as no one wants war.
Unfortunately, no one has any answers.
