BluFin's business cycle indicator suggests Indian economy growing as against previous year
Financial information and content company BluFin's business cycle indicator (BCI) flattened slightly in November after a month-on-month increase for three straight months. The current score is 160.0 compared to 160.3 in October. However, the implied year-on-year growth rate continues to be positive at 2.5%, suggesting the Indian economy is growing as compared to the previous year.
The latest BCI data indicate a weak recovery from a bottomed-out business cycle, BluFin said. The weakness is primarily due to a slowdown in the consumer sectors while production of basic and intermediate economic goods continues to improve. The shallowest recovery, certainly in the last six years, and possibly the last twenty. The consoling feature is that across the world, one is witnessing similar ""recoveries"". The good news just might be that this is a basing period and that once the turnaround happens, it will be steadily sharp. In my view, a full fledged recovery in the business cycle is on the horizon,'' said Surjit Bhalla, senior advisor, BluFin.
Compared to economic trends in 2009, the current recovery appears quite slow with the implied growth rate still nowhere near the long-term average growth rate (between 1991 and 2012).
Though the BluFin BCI continues to suggest an expanding economy, the concern right now is that the recovery is too slow. A weak recovery is vulnerable to surprise shocks. Therefore it is important that, announced fiscal reforms should go through soon. This would lead to expansion in manufacturing activities,'' said Sam Thomas, director, BluFin and professor of banking and finance at the Weatherhead School of Management of Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.
The lack of momentum in BCI's recovery path is primarily due to a slowdown in consumer and investor demand. Boosting the confidence of these economic players would be essential in ensuring sustained economic growth,'' said Debopam Chaudhuri, vice president of research and development, BluFin.
In November, 21 out of the 42 economic indicators covered by BluFin showed some improvement over the previous month. Some of the indicators pointing to an improvement include key metals like copper, iron and aluminum which registered a rise in production numbers compared to same time last year. Also, the central government's non-plan expenditure moderated further as per the latest data.
BluFin said despite a slowdown in domestic consumption, foreign tourist revenues recorded a growth as compared to the previous year. However, domestic air traffic growth (both passengers and cargo) continued to be negative.
BluFin's business cycle indicator suggests Indian economy growing as against previous year - The Times of India
Financial information and content company BluFin's business cycle indicator (BCI) flattened slightly in November after a month-on-month increase for three straight months. The current score is 160.0 compared to 160.3 in October. However, the implied year-on-year growth rate continues to be positive at 2.5%, suggesting the Indian economy is growing as compared to the previous year.
The latest BCI data indicate a weak recovery from a bottomed-out business cycle, BluFin said. The weakness is primarily due to a slowdown in the consumer sectors while production of basic and intermediate economic goods continues to improve. The shallowest recovery, certainly in the last six years, and possibly the last twenty. The consoling feature is that across the world, one is witnessing similar ""recoveries"". The good news just might be that this is a basing period and that once the turnaround happens, it will be steadily sharp. In my view, a full fledged recovery in the business cycle is on the horizon,'' said Surjit Bhalla, senior advisor, BluFin.
Compared to economic trends in 2009, the current recovery appears quite slow with the implied growth rate still nowhere near the long-term average growth rate (between 1991 and 2012).
Though the BluFin BCI continues to suggest an expanding economy, the concern right now is that the recovery is too slow. A weak recovery is vulnerable to surprise shocks. Therefore it is important that, announced fiscal reforms should go through soon. This would lead to expansion in manufacturing activities,'' said Sam Thomas, director, BluFin and professor of banking and finance at the Weatherhead School of Management of Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.
The lack of momentum in BCI's recovery path is primarily due to a slowdown in consumer and investor demand. Boosting the confidence of these economic players would be essential in ensuring sustained economic growth,'' said Debopam Chaudhuri, vice president of research and development, BluFin.
In November, 21 out of the 42 economic indicators covered by BluFin showed some improvement over the previous month. Some of the indicators pointing to an improvement include key metals like copper, iron and aluminum which registered a rise in production numbers compared to same time last year. Also, the central government's non-plan expenditure moderated further as per the latest data.
BluFin said despite a slowdown in domestic consumption, foreign tourist revenues recorded a growth as compared to the previous year. However, domestic air traffic growth (both passengers and cargo) continued to be negative.
BluFin's business cycle indicator suggests Indian economy growing as against previous year - The Times of India
...... another one.
