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Indian economy at slowest rate in a decade

M.harris

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INDIA announced growth figures for its full financial year on Friday showing the once-booming South Asian economy expanded by 5.0 per cent in 2012/13, its slowest pace in a decade.

Low business confidence, slumping investment, high inflation and weak export demand from Western countries were blamed for the bleak performance which comes ahead of national elections scheduled for next year.

In the fourth quarter to the end of March, gross domestic product grew by 4.8 per cent year-on-year, slightly higher than the previous quarter when it expanded by 4.5 per cent, according to the data from the statistics ministry.

Despite government efforts to talk up the economy after a burst of pro-market reforms at the end of last year, most independent analysts see continuing slack demand and few quick fixes.

"Business activity is still sluggish," Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist with state-run Bank of Baroda told AFP ahead of the release of the data.

The economy grew by 6.2 per cent in 2011/12.

Global ratings agency Standard and Poor's warned earlier this month that India faces at least "a one-in-three" chance of losing its prized sovereign grade rating amid new threats to economic growth and reforms.

India's BBB-minus investment rating is already the lowest among its BRICS peers Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa and cutting it to "junk status" would raise the country's hefty borrowing costs.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) this week lowered its projection of India's GDP to 5.3 per cent in 2013, from 5.9 per cent earlier.

"The government needs to go all-out to turn around investment sentiment," said Yes Bank chief economist Shubhada Rao.

The left-leaning government led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress party has been dogged by corruption scandals during its second term in office and has struggled to push through promised pro-business legislation


Read more: Indian economy at slowest rate in a decade | News.com.au
Indian economy at slowest rate in a decade | News.com.au
India's economy is still stuck in the slow lane
India's economy has slowed rapidly recently and there is little sign of a quick recovery.

Until two years ago the country was recording 9% annual growth but now the figure is around half that.

Indians are having to cope with rising prices and high interest rates, even as wages and job prospects for those entering the labour market are taking a hit.

The country's manufacturing sector has been significantly affected, and for businessmen such as Ajay Modi, who runs a small factory making car parts in Mumbai, times are tough.

"Since last year demand has definitely gone down very badly."

He says that inflation has had a significant impact on his costs, with the price of steel doubling over the past decade from around $440 a tonne to just under $1,000.

The government in Delhi is not helping the country's manufacturers, he says. Indian firms are being forced to pay too many different types of taxes, which is hitting their competitiveness, even in their home market.

"We are looking at Chinese raw steel imports because... the Chinese and Russian plants are far cheaper, more than 20% cheaper, even after paying the import duty."

AdvertisementSmall manufacturers such as Ajay Modi are suffering as India's economy slows

To keep up with developments in the car industry, Mr Modi wants to invest in new machine tools.

"Before that we must get some assurance from our buyers, but they are not in a position to give any assurance beyond one quarter [three months]."

Part of the problem, he says, is that for all its promises Delhi is not doing enough to support small manufacturers like him.

"At present, small entrepreneurs and medium scale industry are looking to the government for more co-operation but the government somehow neglects these industries.

"The government should follow the footsteps of the Chinese development programme for small and micro businesses."

'Nothing much happening'

His views on the Indian government's recent track record are echoed by Baba Kalyani, chairman of Pune-based Bharat Forge, which has plants in Europe, the United States and China, as well as India.

"The whole investment pipeline has kind of got frozen, largely because of governance issues. Projects are getting stuck in various approval processes."

Continue reading the main story
Asian growth rates
A woman walks by high-rise buildings in Bangkok
Australia 3.1%
China 7.7%
Indonesia 6.0%
Malaysia 4.1%
Thailand 5.3%
Vietnam 4.8%
Source: OECD/IMF

Since 2012 the Indian government has announced several measures to try to revive the economy, but observers are waiting to see if Delhi will actually be able to implement these.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's coalition government has been weakened by a series of corruption scandals.

These have been used by opposition parties to stymie government policies ahead of a national election which must be held within a year.

"Fundamentally, on the ground, nothing much is happening," says Baba Kalyani.

India's growth is still outpacing the US and Europe, but it is at its weakest in a decade and is being overtaken by China and Indonesia.

"Look at our peers in Asia, I think they are doing much better than us," says Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at the Indian credit ratings agency CRISIL.

"I think some of these economies have bounced back to their pre-crisis rate of growth, whereas we are much below our pre-crisis rate of growth."
Only 'perfect candidates' wanted

Crucially, India needs high growth just to create jobs for new entrants to the labour market.

Its population of 1.2bn people is growing at 1.4% a year, almost three times the rate for China.

Continue reading the main story
Spending squeeze
Malti Modi in her family's kitchen
The high cost of living remains a worry for many Indians - even allowing for the fact that annual inflation eased to 4.8% in April.

Malti Modi, Ajay's wife, says wages have not kept pace with the sharp rise in food costs.

"Earlier when you went out with $2 in your purse you could buy vegetables that would last you for a week. Now you need at least $10$.

"People like us from the middle class can still manage but how can the poor make ends meet?"

Find out more on India Business Report

Ajay Modi's son, Viraj, a 22-year-old production engineering graduate, finished university last year and is now set to leave the country.

"I plan to do a masters in industrial engineering in the US."

One factor in his decision to study abroad is India's weakening job market. The slowing economy means that there are fewer job opportunities compared with a year ago.

"Companies now want a perfect candidate. Because of the global recession they are cutting down the job opportunities," he says.

It is a point also made by Waqar Azmi, chief executive of recruitment agency Sutra Services.

"If you go back to late 2011-12, virtually everybody could easily get a job.

"Today you have to be really good... to get a good job.

"Mediocre people, and people who are probably average, have been phased out."

There have been fresh investments in India in recent months by some global companies, but most economists say it is far too soon to determine if India is yet on the road to strong growth.
 
India records slowest growth in a decade


India’s economy grew at 5 per cent in the financial year to March, the slowest rate in a decade of rapid expansion, the Central Statistics Office said on Friday.

In the latest quarter ended on March 31, gross domestic product grew 4.8 per cent year-on-year, in line with economists’ forecasts and only slightly above the 4.7 per growth rate recorded in the preceding three months.

Economists blame India’s relatively sluggish growth over the past year on a reluctance by foreign or domestic business to invest, as a result of poor infrastructure for power and transport, uncertainties over taxation, bureaucratic delays and continued restrictions on foreign direct investment.

“With no visible pick-up in any key levers of the economy, the situation remains grim,” said Chandrajit Banerjee, director-general of the Confederation of Indian Industry, calling the latest numbers disappointing but as expected.

“Demand in the system is weak with low levels of consumption, government expenditure and investments,” he said. “While the fiscal deficit situation would not allow government expenditure to go up, every means need to be explored for raising consumption and investment demand.”

The reappointment in July last year of Palaniappan Chidambaram as finance minister initially cheered investors, and they praised a flurry of reforms subsequently implemented by the Congress-led coalition government, including cuts in fuel subsidies, privatisations, and the easing of foreign investment limits for airlines and retailing.

In the past few months, however, the government seems to have lost some of its reformist zeal as it contemplates a general election due within a year.


On Thursday, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry said $52bn of projects were facing delays because of a lack of official clearances. More than half the value of stalled projects are in power, with others in roads, metals, oil and gas and mining.

The latest quarterly data show that what growth there is in the Indian economy is coming largely from services. The contribution of a category that includes financing, insurance, real estate and business services rose 9.1 per cent, while trade, hotels, transport and communication was up 6.2 per cent.

But manufacturing rose only 2.6 per cent, and electricity, gas and water supply increased 2.8 per cent, while mining and quarrying declined 3.1 per cent. Agriculture, forestry and fishing were up 1.4 per cent


SOURCE:

The Financial Times Limited 2013​
 
In the fourth quarter to the end of March, gross domestic product grew by 4.8 per cent year-on-year, slightly higher than the previous quarter when it expanded by 4.5 per cent, according to the data from the statistics ministry.

At least there is a quarterly improvement. Growth went from from 4.5% to 4.8% in the last two quarters.

Could signal a positive momentum, though there doesn't seem to be any meaningful reform initiative on the ground.
 
I think this is just the beginning....Till next year election, growth may slow down further because GOVT will try to spend more and may an less income...So it should not be a surprise gift from UPA Govt..
 
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NEW DELHI: India's economy grew by 5.0 per cent in 2012-2013, its slowest annual rate in a decade, data showed on Friday in another blow to the corruption-hit government ahead of national elections due by next year.


In 2011-12, the economy grew by 6.2 per cent, a sharp slowdown from the previous year when growth hit 9.3 per cent.


Global ratings agency Standard and Poor's warned earlier this month that India faces at least “a one-in-three” chance of losing its prized sovereign grade rating amid new threats to economic growth and reforms.


India's BBB-minus investment rating is already the lowest among its BRICS peers Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, and cutting it to “junk status” would raise the country's hefty borrowing costs.



The rupee, already trading near 12-month lows against the US currency, slipped to 56.6 to the dollar.


On the Bombay Stock Exchange, the benchmark 30-share Sensex index had lost nearly 2.0 per cent in late afternoon trade, down 384.20 points at 19,831.20 as investors reacted to the data.


In the January-March quarter, the vital job-creating manufacturing sector increased output by just 2.6 per cent, while production in the country's mines shrank by 3.1 per cent.


The services sector comprising banks, insurance and real estate was a rare bright spot, showing growth of 9.1 per cent.


Government pressure has mounted on the central bank to ease borrowing costs after it raised interest rates aggressively in 2010 and 2011 to combat double-digit inflation last year.


It has obliged by cutting interest rates three times in 2013, but Reserve Bank of India governor Duvvuri Subbarao has said the bank has “limited space” to ease monetary policy further due to the risk of inflation flaring up again.


India's wholesale inflation, its most widely watched measure, cooled last month to a surprise 41-month low of 4.89 per cent. But the consumer price index is at 9.39 per cent, led mainly by high food and beverage prices.


SOURCE:

Indian economy grows at slowest rate in a decade - DAWN.COM
 
When will the INC realize that economic reforms are more important than welfare activities....:angry:
 
When will the INC realize that economic reforms are more important than welfare activities....:angry:

So basically give the corporations more "freedom" and and cut help for the poor?

What was pakistan growth over the same period?
 
As per international changings seen in business sector. this could happen and not just India there must be many more countries might also have this problem in this financial year.
 
So basically give the corporations more "freedom" and and cut help for the poor?

Help? In India we aren't helping the poor by giving these sops instead we are making them lazy.
 
I have no idea about pakistan's gdp data. Some of the members here must be knowing.

Its current GDP growth rate is 4.36

according to this link

tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/gdp-growth

Although its very low if we go back and see 2009, 2010 downfall in GDP... Last 5 years were Worst span in Pakistan's History....
 
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