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Ray Dalio sees India 10-year growth rate at 7% day after Chandrayaan-3's moon landing

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Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has projected India's 10-year economic growth rate at 7 percent, saying the country possesses the right combination of ingredients that demonstrates it has huge potential along with effective leadership to catalyse it.

A day after Chandrayaan-3 made India the first country to reach the lunar south polar region, the legendary investor wrote on the microblogging website X, formerly Twitter, “India's successful lunar mission (landing its Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft on the moon) is another one of many straws in the wind showing its ascendence”.
"As previously shown in my health index for countries, which is used to derive my projections for countries’ next 10-year growth rates, India scores on top with a projected growth rate over the next 10 years of about 7 per cent. It has the right mix of ingredients that shows that it has great potential and the right leadership to catalyze it,” Dalio wrote.

"It reminds me a lot of China in 1984 (when I first went) around the time Deng Xiaoping made his reform and opening up policies that catalyzed China. Congratulations India!

Known for unveiling a slew of measures that took China out of poverty, Deng was the leader of the communist country from 1978 to 1989. Under his leadership, the reforms transformed the economic system, kickstarting a phase of remarkable economic growth. This era of growth not only propelled the country out of isolation but also positioned it firmly within the modern global economy.

Dalio has around $3 billion invested in Chinese businesses but even he's convinced the country's economy needs a massive restructuring, Fortune has reported.

“As for the debt and the economy, there is an obvious need for a big debt restructuring of the sort that Zhu Rongji engineered in the late 1990s, just much bigger," Dalio wrote in a LinkedIn post.

The author and co-founder of hedge fund firm Bridgewater Associates met Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his state visit to the United States in June. Dalio also praised Modi, that India had seen the biggest transformations under his leadership, drawing a parrel between the PM Deng.

Dalio said Modi possessed the capabilities to make the most significant impact on a vast number of people globally, especially at a juncture when the potential risks and challenges were greater than they had been in recent memory.

 
India stands as a beacon of growth to achieve 7% growth: Tata Sons' N Chandrasekaran at B20 Summit India 2023

N Chandrasekaran, CEO of Tata Sons and Chair, B20 India, on Friday said India is on track to achieve 7 per cent average growth in 10 years. The country is well-placed for a key role in the global value chain.

Speaking at the B20 summit, Chandrasekaran said India has many things that go in its favour.

“India has many things that go in its favour. The PM Gati Shakti, PLI schemes, reduction in corporate taxes, digital public infrastructure, startups are helping it sustain momentum among G20 countries. All of us are committed to sustainability, innovation. India's growth journey will shape the world's future,” he said on Friday.

"India is on track to achieve 7 per cent average growth in 10 years. The world is navigating through three important transitions: Digital and intelligence transition, Energy transition, and global value & supply chain transition. The country is well-placed for a key role in the global value chain. Govt sops, tax mop-up boosting India's stature in G-20," he added while addressing B20 summit in New Delhi.

He further said: "We have had about 110 policy advocacy sessions. I am delighted to say we have a very strong set of recommendations - 54 recommendations, 172 policy actions across 9 teams. On recommendations, first that came across as a theme was the concept of inclusion - of access to finance, equitable development, education. We want to see notable progress on gender diversity. We have recommended financing for global recovery, providing support to MSMEs so that they can contribute to global growth."

Mentioning the Chandrayaan-3 success and ISRO's feat during the address, Chandrasekaran said for many Indians, the landing of Chandrayaan 3 has made the moon a symbol of achievement and not just aspiration.

"The moon has been a symbol of aspiration for a long time. Today we see the moon in a different light. For many Indians, the landing of Chandrayaan3 has made the moon a symbol of achievement and not just aspiration. It shows us what we have achieved as a nation and what we are capable of achieving in the future," Chandrasekaran said.

In his speech at the B20 Summit India, 2023 in Delhi, Chandrasekaran reminded the gathering that it was a "great privilege" to address the gathering specially "during the week that India successfully soft-landed a spacecraft on the moon.

The Tata Sons CEO further declared that a B20 Global Institute will be set up in India as a knowledge base, thought leader.

"We would like to announce B20 Global Institute. Its purpose is to be an evangelist, a change agent, the knowledge base, thought leader, think tank with highly experienced people who will work with B20 nations every year. It will be a global Institute based in India. This Institute will provide continuity so that all recommendations are tracked and kept alive," said Chandrasekaran.

Chandrasekaran stated that the proposed institute will provide continuity in a bid to ensure all recommendations are tracked and kept alive.

B20 is the official G20 dialogue forum with the global business community. Established in 2010, B20 is among the most prominent engagement groups in G20 with companies and business organisations as participants. The theme for the B20 India 2023 is Responsible, Accelerated, Innovative, Sustainable, Equitable (R.A.I.S.E) Businesses.


In December 2022, Chandrasekaran was appointed the chair of B20 India and lead the business agenda by the Indian government during its G20 presidency. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) was appointed as the B20 India Secretariat to lead the B20 India process. CII assumed charge on December 1, 2022.
 
As long we have current leadership, maintaining 7% growth rate is feasible, while maintaining lower inflation rate. 7% growth with 4-5% inflation will contribute to 11-12% nominal GDP growth.

Keep in mind that much of the growth happened during congress era was fueled by inflation, like what is happening in bangladesh now.
 
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India will become 3rd largest economy in few years: WEF president
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New Delhi [India], August 25 (ANI): World Economic Forum (WEF) president Borge Brende voiced optimism that India will be the third largest economy in the world in a few years and it is important for the country to continue reforms, build better infrastructure and invest in education.

Speaking at the B20 Summit in the national capital on Friday, Brende also highlighted that countries should be allowed to be competitive and buy what is most relevant for their business.

Brende was delivering his address at a session on “Inclusive GVCs (global value chains) for Resilient Global Trade and Investment” at the B20 Summit India 2023 organised by the industry body CII.

“There is a lot of optimism in India, which is also the basis of India’s Presidency of G20. India has been the fastest-growing economy for three years in a row, in the middle of sluggish global growth. India will be the third largest economy in the world in a few years, a 10 trillion Dollar economy in a decade and larger than Germany and Japan in a few years. It is important for India to continue reforms, build better infrastructure, and invest in education”, said Brende, President, of the World Economic Forum, in Switzerland.

Indian economy is currently ranked fifth and is behind the US, China, Japan, and Germany. In 2014 when Narendra Modi was sworn in as the Prime Minister, India was the 10th largest economy. In 2022, India became the fifth-largest economy overtaking the UK.

"Future prosperity and poverty eradication will be based on open trade and strong Global Value Chains. Global Value Chains are at the core of future growth, which have to be inclusive and adjusted for climate change,” he said.

The theme of B20 Summit India is ‘R.A.I.S.E – Responsible, Accelerated, Innovative, Sustainable and Equitable Businesses’.

The Business 20 or B20 was formed in 2010 and is the official G20 dialogue forum with the global business community. B20 aims to deliver concrete actionable policy recommendations on the priorities of each rotating presidency to spur economic growth and development. (ANI)
 
We need a consistent 7% growth for next two decades to have a decent per capita income. Currently, we are barely above the Sub Saharan Africa and if we keep up the 7% growth rate , then only by early 30s we may touch Thailand PCI and China by late 30. We have a long road ahead of us!!
 
I still can't get how a low income country sustains a high growth rate with huge trade deficit every year, India is the world second largest trade deficit country only after US, all countries when they first have economic take off all enjoyed a long period of big surplus years, including US, Japan, Korea... how India can upset this rule? how can you have meaning growth just by buying but not selling?

We need a consistent 7% growth for next two decades to have a decent per capita income. Currently, we are barely above the Sub Saharan Africa and if we keep up the 7% growth rate , then only by early 30s we may touch Thailand PCI and China by late 30. We have a long road ahead of us!!
China's high growth was based on huge foreign trade surplus and manufacturing, it's rather slow and painful in the beginning, how India can get around this route?
 
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I still can't get how a low income country sustains a high growth rate with huge trade deficit every year, India is the world second largest trade deficit country only after US, all countries when they first have economic take off all enjoyed a long period of big surplus years, including US, Japan, Korea... how India can upset this rule? how can you have meaning growth just by buying but not selling?
We have a high merchandise trade deficit, but we also have a surplus in service trade, so both of them combined lessens our deficit which is further reduced by FDIs and remittance.

Moreover we are consumption based economy unlike the export based Asian economies!!
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We have a high merchandise trade deficit, but we also have a surplus in service trade, so both of them combined lessens our deficit which is further reduced by FDIs and remittance.

Moreover we are consumption based economy unlike the export based Asian economies!!
View attachment 948774

Goods+service

Largest trade surplus countries

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Largest trade deficit countries

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