Realignment, yes. But assuming it vain is premature.
After Iran sanctions, Saudis actively pursued Indians(Indians withdrew from Iranian oil). The goal remains the same, Pakistan must take a back seat to on going play in the region and take cues from India...
Desist and stick to the selected/specific role...
So Pakistan remains a pivot(still?)...
Iran is to be defanged permanently and China
collared/contained. Israeli preeminence maintained and unchallenged in mideast... India raised a notch...
Here, board is drawn...
I agree with you that we must not pick sides at least at this stage (I missed that point earlier). I also understand what you are saying about western plans and Gulf role in them including regarding Iran. At the end however we will have to find a balance between Iran and the Gulf Nations. Western plans may have worked in the past, but world is now increasingly different. They even failed in Afghanistan. I respectfully disagree that China can be contained despite the plans (I know that's not what you meant).
We must let go this "racial hierarchy" in which either European race (and now a days even Chinese race for that matter) wins and gets to have their way (Between 60% to 70% Pakistanis are euro-Asian by race by the way, not talking about haplogroup or those ancestry based studies which ill-informed here on pdf wrongly call "genetic studies", I am talking about actual genome where most of Pakistani men and women have the same genes/alleles that most of the Europeans have. Its actual current genome (i.e. set of genes) that defines the race and who we are and not the haplogroups (i.e. thousands of years old ancestry revealing genetic markers).
If I have two sons one of whose future generation kept on marrying in africa and the other whose future generation kept on marrying in europe will both have the same ancestor namely me (and therefore the same ancestral markers). But the off springs of my son whose generation married in africa will have the actual african genes and will be of African by race in just few generation of repeatedly marrying in africa but my other son whose off springs lived and married in europe, they will acquire european genome (they will be european by race). Race is not the same therefore having the same ancestor but with whom our subsequent generations exchanged genetic material with. but that's another topic).
I know you don't have such mental racial hierarchy. I am talking about general Pakistani/muslim mentality here. The Taliban had no such racial hierarchy in their head, neither they knew any super power to which they surrender to. They were free, they are free and they die free. Hence whatever US plans were, had no effect on their existence. Despite their obvious short comings such as being harsh or backward in thinking, the Taliban had already surrendered to Allah so they could not do it to the US. Today they negotiate with equality and honor. Something others don't have when dealing with US. May be we should do it too and follow our plans regardless of what US or even China thinks.
Even Iran will get 400 billion dollar investment from China despite what US planned for them or what our arab brothers wished for them. Clearly US is not running the universe and neither is China. Much like many arabs, iranian caused suffering and suffered at the same time. The difference is arabs nations that caused suffering are enjoying life (e.g. UAE) and innocent and good arab nations are suffering (e.g. Syria, Yemen, Palestine etc.). Like them, we probably ourselves are guilty of the same. Still Chinese plans help us achieve our goals. In that spirit I want to talk about the plans of other side. So that we have a balanced view of both worlds.
This is because as Pakistan rises economically partly driven by gradual Chinese industrial relocation to this region (Pakistan will rise, that is inevitable as shown below)
then we will be able to do or stand up for things that currently we don't or can't.
We must not count on China for our progress either but find our own way to independence.
A strong independent and free Pakistan that sees no superpower but based on principles and values, is able to navigate the economic, social, industrial and military realms on its own is what we should be aiming for . The Pakistan that can stand for the rights of fellow muslims and other oppressed people that Pakistan should be our goal.
For now at our current stage of development however, the reality is countries like China can influence things in many ways which we might as well use for our advantage.
Let me explain why in some detail those advantages.
China has plans to create eventually a road link via an undersea/oversea link from Gwadar to Oman, connecting Pakistan directly with the Gulf nations.
It will likely to be over sea bridge though. Pakistan will likely give permission for such construction since Pakistan itself will be able to export to middle east and africa via such link. Technology has reached a point where such construction are now possible.
A better and more likely option would be to go from Pakistan to Iran first. So that a shorter tunnel or
over sea bridge can be made from Iran to the agreeing gulf nation likely oman again. In that case traffic will have to go from Pakistan to iran first. But undersea tunnel or over sea bridge will be much shorter and cheaper to built. Iran is in Chinese camp now so that's not a problem anymore. Points of ship clearance can constructed along the way.
Either way,
once directly from Pakistan to oman or From Pakistan-iran to oman rail/road link exists, these gulf nations will then be connected via the " Bridge of the Horns", connecting Yemen with Djibouti
, creating an economic corridor from middle east to the eastern Africa.
So the whole first corridor will be from China-Pakistan-Gulf nations-Yemen to Africa. This is illustrated in the image below.
The
second trade corridor would be from China to africa via Egypt. Its first portion will be the same as above that is through Pakistan (again via gulf nations involving once again Gwadar-Oman link or from Pakistan to iran-oman undersea/oversea link). Or it could be from Pakistan to iran-Iraq to Egypt in Africa (the third corridor).
The second corridor will be China-Pakistan-Gulf Nations to egypt and rest of africa (or skip the gulf nations and go via iran-iraq, as in the third corridor in the image below). It will also cover Levant. So the above two trade corridors will have Pakistan as the central place.
The third corridor from China via Pakistan, iran, iraq and the middle east is set to go in the next 5 to 7 years (see the image below). Pakistan will be connected to middle east in a lot of ways (via many corridors as discussed above) contributing to Pakistan’s economic rise, influence and power. Arabs are not just gulf rulers. They include sophisticated arabs of Levant, educated Egyptian and Iraqis. These are different from Gulf arabs and so are Maghreb (e.g. Algeria, Morocco, Tunis etc.) who are also very nice. Trade involving made in Pakistan products and good brotherly relations with these arabs are good for Pakistan even when things are not ideal with Gulf arabs. Money brings people closer together. With iran we share a lot of cultural, historic, religious and even racial relationships as well. A balanced strategic approach will help us navigate their Persian-Arab rivalry better rather than taking openly any sides. We should try to diffuse any tension between them when possible.
So now the only economic corridors from asia to africa via middle east will be the Chinese ones and Pakistan will have a central place in them. Off course Pakistan will have to somehow fund our own economic corridors to central asia if we wish and/or merge our plans with chinese or russians (e.g. road link to certain central Asian states via China)
Made in Pakistan whether owned by Pakistani companies or Chinese corporations will find markets everywhere via these economic corridors. Along with Chinese exporting their stuff via Pakistan, Pakistan will export its own stuff. Built by China in all other countries while available to us and for our trade. Its pretty cool and free.
Relocated Chines industry in Pakistan, Iran, and may be in Afghanistan (at least mineral processing ones) will also need these trade corridors to create efficient supply lines.
Note: It is not necessary that we have to have road based economic corridors. An efficient advanced port is enough to replace the road or over sea link where needed (e.g. Gwadar). High speed train/trucks can however generally be much faster and even cheaper at places. They are also efficient (require less handling etc.).
Also Note: roads don't follow straight lines due to rivers, mountains, and so on. Hence on a map a path may look shorter but in real life it may be shorter from elsewhere. Pakistan offers a lot of efficient (e.g. requiring less fuel due to non-mountaneous roads etc.) and shorter routes to lots of nations even when on maps Pakistani routes might look longer (also realize earth is curved, maps are not).
In the Image Above: 1st, 2nd and 3rd corridor illustrated as
black lines as well as Pakistan's own central asian trade routes
also in black lines. Note: These are rough hand sketched drawings.
China took over Djibouti so that so that the anticipated Israel-gulf nations' economic corridor to eastern Africa via " Bridge of the Horns" is blocked (the one connecting Yemen with Djibouti in Africa). That was done quite well by china.
That's why Israel and west supported Saudi war on Yemen hopping to eventually displace China from Djibouti (once Yemen was captured) even though that was and is impossible (They made money while as usual Muslims civilians died and armed muslims spent time killing each other). China can’t be displaced. Yemen was the key here. But no longer the key for Israel/UAE alliance since China controls Djibouti. It was UAE that drove Saudi into this useless war. UAE and others will happily join Chinese plans now.
Israeli plans will only be limited to india eventually or Israel will join the Chinese programs (most likely). India itself will become irrelevant to a large degree. As Chinese products will find their way to the middle east via Pakistan too (apart from the usual but at times more expensive sea routes).
The israeli economic corridor from Israel (coming from Africa via Egypt) and going through Syria to Europe is no longer possible as that is now blocked by once again Russia (occupying Syria) and off course by Turkey.
Coming back to Pakistan, the final corridor will be from China via Pakistan and involving both Afghanistan and iran (two parallel routes) going to Europe will link Pakistan with the Europe and Russia as well as central asia.
Pakistan will be the most significant link in all these trade routes since Pakistan is next to China.
Lots of products will be assembled, packed in Pakistan even when they are still made in China. Plus lot of them will be made in Pakistan from scratch. Pakistani industry will flourish and Pakistan will rise with extremely high growth rate. That’s inevitable.
India is nowhere in it. Nowhere. Pakistan is everywhere. So indian army chief can visit Saudi Arabia all he likes, in few years, things will get harder for him.
Off course india will try to do whatever she can. India may even have her own links with the middle east but those will be weak ones. Combined Pakistan, China, Iran, Turkey, Russia, Central asia and so on can deal with these easily. These countries will increasingly be closer to each other due to their shared trade interests under the China belt and road initiative. They all have shared interest in this new emerging world order. They will help each other above all.
The reality is that the Chinese rise is unstoppable and now involves too many nation supporting china for their own sake whether they are Iran or even Japan.
India won’t be allowed to continue her terror campaign either.
Eventually India will be drawn into an inner turmoil where various freedom movements will be supported. I don't think Chinese will allow India to become powerful enough so that Indians can harm Chinese global interests. Once China has secured Tibet fully, and meets her poverty reduction goals, China will be free to take those actions that may lead to little economic price for her in dealing with india.
Just like US could not stop east Asian nations from joining China, it can’t stop middle east joining with china eventually under grand economic arrangements since money and increasingly advanced technology is in Asia/Russia now.
Indian wins are their own wishful thinking and are temporary. That’s not just based on above coming reality but also based on lots of other things that I know but won’t discuss here due to their sensitive nature.
Indians can dismiss all the above to have “feel good feelings” but that’s what both China and Pakistan are working towards. The current CPEC is just one element of this whole grand game. Things are taking shape daily, bit by bit, towards these goals. It’s a reality that is taking shape right now.
We are talking about a continuous integrated market and economic zone from China to Pakistan to middle east to Africa. The US could not stop east asian nations from forming such an economic arrangement with China, it can never stop middle east which already has huge trade with china and lots of nations in Africa are already with China and Russia-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey are also on board and so integrated euro-asian-african economic zone will be a reality. It benefits all.
Its very important to realize that large scale integrated economic zones consisting of several nations allow creation of self-organizing supply chains and industrial Eco-systems. This speeds up industrial growth in each of the participating nations at a high rate. It's that which will fuel Pakistani growth on its own.
If all of this was not so critical for Pakistan's future, pakistan military would not have gone to raise tens of thousands of troups to protect CPEC (risking precious lives) and non-CPEC developments (e.g. federally funded western corridor in Balochistan).
As discussed above, Pakistan will be the chief beneficiary as more and more industrial investment will come to Pakistan and not to mention Pakistan’s own industry will have access to global market like no other. All of this will allow Pakistan to reach extremely high industrial growth as years go by. Things will pick up with time. A little patient is needed for now. Between 2022 to 2027 this new reality will beginning to emerge more and more fully. Then rise of Pakistan as fast emerging economic, industrial and military power is inevitable.
Pak was founded in Kerala??
