India well on its way to becoming a $5 trillion economy by 2025

[TM de Chaudhary]

Now the growth rate is high enough to bring reforms

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Then how do you purpose we implement these reforms the only real option is ordinance

Ordinance means a failure of political consensus. Now the problem here is that Modi with his HUGE majority cannot get political consensus shows that his floor management is in pieces and why not? He's been raging like a bull for the last year. This is where the failures of modi begin to show themselves. Congress would get many bills passed with NDA help and vice versa during NDA regime too. That's coz leaders on both sides always kept an open channel and that's how democracy works. Ordinance will not become law coz next session too the same problems will crop up and the oridinance will have to be renewed. This is modi's fault only.

It's backed by secondary data which is not available in public domain. Having said that, to ascertain the assertion of mine, you can google for news articles or interviews of some economists in the country who will also agree that goal post for $ value would be towards 65-67ish in coming months with trading ground between 62-64.



Yes, not only indians themselves but world traders/economists are looking at indian economy to drive future growth as china's growth tapers off in next 10 years.

I suppose what the current regime has which the earlier one lacked was the tenacity to drive change which is a very good thing for highly bureaucratic country like India.

Happy new year btw



GST is not a panacea for the ills in the economy. Just the first step towards streamlining some vaguely defined regressive taxation laws in the country. There can still be supply side constraints.

GST was just an example of how an extremely problematic bill too can be got through now. The others are actually much easier than GST. Happy new year to you too.

Thanks ! A lot of people tend to be confused when it comes to discussing REAL/PPP/NOMINAL GDP growths. A 2 to 5Trillion will be an underachievement if one has to ask me.

actually if you look at trends, a 6 to 6.5% long term projection is generally more reliable for India than a 9% range. Primarily politics shaves off a good 2 to 3% many years. Sometimes we see runs of 9% for 2 to 3 consecutive years but that's very vulnerable trend.

China will topple US around 2020 as world largest economy and by 2025 they will have 20 trillion $ economy.
But anything can happens.
Now US showed 5% growth rate in this quarter .5% growth for an 18 trillion $ economy would create hurdles to Chinas Ambition.

China being big economy means nothing actually. US will keep the Per Capita at stratospheric heights for decades. But most importantly China is still struggling with political reform. Without that they are not going to command anywhere near the respect that the US commands in the world today. They can keep their people dazzled with cash but that don't make a difference to the rest of the world in stature terms.

 

[Luca1]

India media should look for short comings in Indian economy and society if it want faster economic growth.

Agree,. dont know why people keep talking about being a $5 trillion economy 10 years from now when the country hasn't even crossed $2 trillion economy yet(and many predicted they will have done so way back in 2011). Thing is we can never guess for sure what the future holds, for we dont know what will happen even n=this year, much less next year. Do more , talk less. Why not just wait when it happens before start talking about it? Its always better to aim high privately but talk low publicly than otherwise. Wishing all the best to India though.

You should know by now that Indian media like to brag. And many ,not all, Indian members would jump into the bandwagon. Indian media need to focus on the shortcomings and continue to improve their country instead of writing articles to sell papers.

 

[Foggy_Bottom]

India media should look for short comings in Indian economy and society if it want faster economic growth.



You should know by now that Indian media like to brag. And many ,not all, Indian members would jump into the bandwagon. Indian media need to focus on the shortcomings and continue to improve their country instead of writing articles to sell papers.

And why do you care about it? I see several articles predicting China taking over our GDP in here or members of other countries putting up favourable articles about their economy. Do you troll those posts too?

Let them say whatever they want to. Its not like I ever see you give any intelligent counterarguments.. It's the same meme over and over again with you and it is to simply troll.

 

[rcrmj]

And why do you care about it? I see several articles predicting China taking over our GDP in here or members of other countries putting up favourable articles about their economy. Do you troll those posts too?

Let them say whatever they want to. Its not like I ever see you give any intelligent counterarguments.. It's the same meme over and over again with you and it is to simply troll.

he was merely stated a fact that Indian like to brag and deluded, or you have inside info from State Dep. or your uncle from India told you otherwise? lol

 

[Echo_419]

Ordinance means a failure of political consensus. Now the problem here is that Modi with his HUGE majority cannot get political consensus shows that his floor management is in pieces and why not? He's been raging like a bull for the last year. This is where the failures of modi begin to show themselves. Congress would get many bills passed with NDA help and vice versa during NDA regime too. That's coz leaders on both sides always kept an open channel and that's how democracy works. Ordinance will not become law coz next session too the same problems will crop up and the oridinance will have to be renewed. This is modi's fault only.



GST was just an example of how an extremely problematic bill too can be got through now. The others are actually much easier than GST. Happy new year to you too.



actually if you look at trends, a 6 to 6.5% long term projection is generally more reliable for India than a 9% range. Primarily politics shaves off a good 2 to 3% many years. Sometimes we see runs of 9% for 2 to 3 consecutive years but that's very vulnerable trend.



China being big economy means nothing actually. US will keep the Per Capita at stratospheric heights for decades. But most importantly China is still struggling with political reform. Without that they are not going to command anywhere near the respect that the US commands in the world today. They can keep their people dazzled with cash but that don't make a difference to the rest of the world in stature terms.

You are overlooking 1 constitutional loop hole
If LS passes a bill & RS does not responds(passes) the bill in 6 months it will be deemed passed
There was a mention about in today's Indian Express too

 

[Luca1]

And why do you care about it? I see several articles predicting China taking over our GDP in here or members of other countries putting up favourable articles about their economy. Do you troll those posts too?

Let them say whatever they want to. Its not like I ever see you give any intelligent counterarguments.. It's the same meme over and over again with you and it is to simply troll.

Do what part of India are you from?

 

[ito]

Do what part of India are you from?

If you cannot counter the argument...turn personal...seems Chinese mantra. He is an American.

As on Indian media, it rarely brags on economic issues, because very few Indian news anchors really understand economy . Most of the bragging Indian media do is with India's military capabilities and with being large and diverse country.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

If you cannot counter the argument...turn personal...seems Chinese mantra. He is an American.

Yep, he's an American who regularly refers to Bangladeshis as "jamatis" and other South Asian slang.

He even said himself that he can speak Hindi/Urdu.

 

[Judge]

Yep, he's an American who regularly refers to Bangladeshis as "jamatis" and other South Asian slang.

"Jamaati" is not a slang.
It is the term used to describe members and supporters of a party "Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh", which supported Pakistan against its own people(Bangladesh) and carried out crimes against humanity against the Bangladeshis.

Its leaders have been convicted and hanged for that purpose and trials are still ongoing. Their people or 'Jamaatis' have been shunted from the mainstream Bangladeshi society.

 

[cirr]

What about China in 2025? Will it cross 15 trillion mark?

10.4 trillion in 2014.

12.2 trillion or thereabout in 2015 due to adoption of SNA 2008

30.0 trillion in 2025

 

[$@rJen]

Appreciation has its own drawbacks, and if govt. asked to RBI.

Then RBI easily can appreciate rupee to 50-55 mark.

What kind of Drawbacks are we talking about??then why the hell our Government didn't ask the RBI to do it???

 

[fallstuff]

Yep, he's an American who regularly refers to Bangladeshis as "jamatis" and other South Asian slang.

He even said himself that he can speak Hindi/Urdu.

He is not good in impersonating !! Needs more practice !!!

 

[cirr]

At 9% GDP growth per annum, it will reach a nominal value of $16 trillion dollars in 2025. Current growth rates are around 8% per annum. So most likely it will.

How you come to your figure is beyond me。

China's 2014 GDP is 10.4 trillion USD。Using annual average nominal growth rate of 9% for 11 years to 2025 gives

10.4X（1+0.09）**11 = 27

That's assuming 7% real growth，2% inflation and NO appreciation of RMB vs USD（an unlikely event since Chinese productivity gains are higher than the American ones）

Since China will adopt SNA 2008 for the calculation of economic output starting 2015，its GDP is likely to see a surge to 12.2 trillion or there about in 2015，which implies a 30+ trillion economy by 2025 for the same growth rate as above。

 

[Echo_419]

Yep, he's an American who regularly refers to Bangladeshis as "jamatis" and other South Asian slang.

He even said himself that he can speak Hindi/Urdu.

He needs practise

How you come to your figure is beyond me。

China's 2014 GDP is 10.4 trillion USD。Using annual average nominal growth rate of 9% for 11 years to 2025 gives

10.4X（1+0.09）**11 = 27

That's assuming 7% real growth，2% inflation and NO appreciation of RMB vs USD（an unlikely event since Chinese productivity gains are higher than the American ones）

Since China will adopt SNA 2008 for the calculation of economic output starting 2015，its GDP is likely to see a surge to 12.2 trillion or there about in 2015，which implies a 30+ trillion economy by 2025 for the same growth rate as above。

Congrats man