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India finds itself having to face a series of closely entwined internal and external threats. Several of these critical factors are worsening. The Authorities of New Delhi should enact an effective strategy to counteract this situation in order to avoid a destabilizing process which could affect the entire Indian system.
Andrea Carbonari
Equilibri.net (18 January 2008)
In analysis of the Indian security situation on a national level, it is difficult to distinguish internal threats from external threats. Various guerrilla or terrorist groups find refuge and support in bordering nations or have links with groups which operate beyond the border. The emblematic case is that of the Jammu and Kashmir territory, a federal state in which guerrilla warfare is active and supported in various ways, by Pakistan, a nation with which India has various disputes over borders. This merging of internal and external elements provokes and aggravates threats.
Geographically, India is surrounded by a complex of crisis situations which have internal repercussions, a complex which in synthesis can be described as a circle of fire. This circle of fire is itself made up by various other circles, due to the dangerous nature of the threat posed to Indian public order. The first ring is constituted by Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh; the second by China and Myanmar, while the third consists of Bhutan and the Maldives.
This work aims to highlight some deciders (also economic), two aspects which are substantially undervalued by the media (also by those who are concerned by this reality). One is that of the vastness and complexity of threats to Indias public security (even though they are considered to be superficial); the other is that of the effect over public order that relations with countries which are directly bordering have. Due to want for space, internal problems such as the role of organised criminality or the effects of corruption, or foreign policy, such as that of the alliances that New Delhi is consolidating. For the same reasons, there is a limit on the space dedicated to the role of single external subjects, to analyze those elements which influence Indias life.
The first ring
Data supplied by authorities and analysts paint a precise picture of India in reality as regards its security profile. It is calculated that in 231 of the 608 districts which comprise India, the phenomenon of guerrilla warfare and terrorism exists to differing extents. On a general level, the Asian countrys borders are affected, as is observed by Gurmeet Kanwal, by phenomenon such as cross-border terrorism, separatist guerrilla warfare, the entrenchment of arms and drug trafficking and clandestine immigration. According to Kanwal, the countrys problematic borders arent clearly understood its by political leadership and this translates into a lack of coordination over the control of the borders. Instead, this should be a priority, given the ease with which it can be controlled.
Pakistan and Islamic terrorism
The most obvious example is given by the western border. According to the Indian Armed Forces (AF), various terrorist groups of Islamic inspiration with bases in Pakistan freely cross the border and hit Indian territory, mainly in the state of Jammu and Kashmir.The maintenance of public order in this state is therefore particularly important for India, not only due to the gravity of the facts which befall it but also due to relations with more direct adversary, Pakistan. Jammu and Kashmir is a piece of territory contested between the two nations. 41% of deaths due to terrorism in India in 2007 were registered here. For some time political groups and guerrilla formations have been asking for the demilitarization of the state, alleging as a motivation, the progressive reduction (throughout the course of recent years) of episodes of violence and guerrilla infiltration attacks from Pakistani groups. But the central Authorities dont intend to remove the presence of the Armed Forces, untrusting of the decreasing trend in episodes of violence. It could in fact be the fruit of a plan (put into act mainly by Pakistan) aimed at lowering Indias level of attention, before striking. New Delhi is prepared to reduce the number of troops and to redeploy them, but not to leave the Line of Control (LoC) unguarded, the provisional border that divides the contested territory in two.
The Confidence Building Measures, those measures created in the diplomatic field to build the trust of the population and Pakistan, which up until now, hasnt had any significant results. It has attempted to stimulate communication between India and Pakistan, interrupted by three wars.The arrest of a soldier from the Islam inspired terrorist formation, Laskar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) originating from Manipur (north-eastern Indian state) leads us to believe that they are creating links with terrorist groups of various ideologies and with different platforms, particularly with the Moaist guerrilla group. According to Indian analysts, the Pakistani secret service Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) would then be looking to give momentum to terrorism of Klahistan matrix. This movement, entrenched in the Sikh community, aims towards the creation of an autonomous state sympathetic to the Indian Punjab. A series of political measures (but not only) put into place by New Delhi has in fact, overcome the Khalist guerrillas, whose presence is by now reduced to being marginal. But Islamabad, which has supported the group in the past, would like to re-activate this threat, through supporting groups such as Babbar Khalsa International. According to the ISI, Khalistan guerrilla groups are fused with those which are active in Kashmir.
In recent months in Islamabad, a complex phase of political transition has been underway. Even if it early for exact judgements, it can be confirmed that elements have emerged which lead us to hypothesize about Pakistan's change of attitude towards India. It is however clear that Islamic-inspired terrorism is caused by elements quite apart from Pakistani intervention or the intervention of other nations (such as Bangladesh). It is caused by the social and cultural malaise of various sections of the Indian Muslim community (which according to estimates, is numerically the second or third largest in the world). Growing Hindu nationalism (with which, acts of violence against the Islamic minority are in fact tolerated) contributes to the feeling of isolation felt above all by young Muslims, who could decide to use arms to fight against a situation which for them seems without end. Undoubtedly, the ISI takes advantage of this malaise, which is also born out of the inefficient policies put into place by the Indian political class.
Bangladesh and Islamic terrorism
The border with Bangladesh, along which clashes and killings of people who cross it take place, is characterised by the so-called Contested Enclaves and Territories. In other words, according to India, it has 111 enclaves on Bangladeshi territory (to a total of 17,158 acres) and there are 51 Bengalese enclaves on Indian territory (about 7000 acres). Thirty four pieces of land claimed by India are under the control of Dacca while 40 pieces of Bengalese territory are in India's possession. The 1974 Treaty for the solution of these controversies is yet to be applied.
So, despite the efforts taken regarding this, by Bengal, various terrorist groups continue to use their land as a base from which to hit India. New Delhi observes the establishment of integralist formations in Bengalese society with concern. The huge amount of clandestine immigration coming from Bangladesh risks destabilizing the demographic and political situations in the Indian states positioned on the border.
Nepal and the Maoist guerrillas
The ties between Indian Maoist and Nepalese guerrilla movements remains the point of focus for New Delhi in its relations with Kathmandu. The phase of Nepalese political instability, with the ever greater establishment of the Maoists of the Communist Party of Nepal- Maoist (CPN-M) is looked upon with concern by Indian observers (although New Delhi fails to put an effective strategy into place). Added to this are the anti-Indian declarations made at the CPN-M summits on various occasions. The intervention of Western powers in Nepalese goings-on is in fact a continual accusation of the guerrilla groups. To this is added the deep (and for some, definitive) crisis in the monarchy, whose defence used to constitute one of the two pillars in Indian policy towards Kathmandu (the other was the support given to the democratic system of a liberal nature). Even if the two insurrection movements are proceeding autonomously, the porosity of the border favours the making of contacts. It is noted that the soldiers of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-M) are becoming more active, exploiting the weakness of Governmental contrasting action. According to official estimates, the CPI-M could make available about 10,000 armed men and 45,000 soldiers. Within India's borders, Maoists have created a type of Red Corridor, a band of territory that goes from the state of Andhra Pradesh to Nepal, within which they have consolidated their power.
Action taken against firstly, Maoist guerrillas but also several other insurrection movements (apart from several exceptions) is clearly weakened by chronic deficiencies in the police force. Deriving from this deficiency, other weaknesses in the conduct of the secret services occur. This organism is weakened further by a scarcity of resources and training. From a political point of view, there is a substantial lack of coordination in the management of conflict. For various reasons this is mainly entrusted to individual states. This leads, among other things, to the politicization of the fight against guerrilla warfare, with approaches and strategies which vary from area to area (and are in some cases, divergent). Observers have accused the politicians of various states of making agreements with the Maoists and of standing in the way of the action of the police force, for electoral reasons. In several cases administrators haven't been able to predict (and as a consequence, stop) the establishment of the Maoists on their territory. The soldiers of the CPI-M are also making the most of the social malaise created by, for example, the more or less forced movement of the population, due to public and private infrastructural projects (such as steel factories etc). According to Indian intelligence, Maoists have managed to infiltrate the industrial complexes under construction with the aim of inciting a revolt. They have declared their will to collaborate with other guerrilla and terrorist groups which are active in other areas of the country.
Sri Lanka and Tamil guerrilla action
Since 1972, in Sri Lanka, a conflict has been underway between central Administration and movements born from the Tamil community. The clashes originate from the discriminatory policy taken towards the Tamil community, by the political class, predominately originating from Sri Lanka's Sinhalese ethnic majority.The main guerrilla group is the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) who fight for an independent Tamil state. For now, they have created their own autonomous territory in the north of the island with Kilinochchi as its capital and its own administrative structure. The LTTE are one of the groups with which the CPI-M has been looking to develop relations from the moment in which it became active both in Sri Lanka and in the Indian State of Tamil Nadu. On June 25th 2007 a training camp for Indian Maoists in the district on Theni was discovered. According to observers, Maoist followers would be interested in learning more sophisticated combative techniques from the LTTE, particularly the use of air-borne devices in guerrilla action. But it would also like to learn how to make the most of child soldiers.
From their point of view, the LTTE are interested in setting up refuges in Tamil Nadu to help them avoid the Sinhalese Armed Forces, which has seized control of the island's east and which also aims to take over the north, the stronghold of the insurrection movement. The emersion of relations between the two groups is something which worries New Delhi greatly and according to Tamil sources, several protocols with Sri Lanka will be signed to remedy this. These agreements will provide for, among other things, the exchange of intelligence information, above all regarding maritime movements.
Translation by Megan Ball
India: The circle of fire grows close (First Part)
Andrea Carbonari
Equilibri.net (18 January 2008)
In analysis of the Indian security situation on a national level, it is difficult to distinguish internal threats from external threats. Various guerrilla or terrorist groups find refuge and support in bordering nations or have links with groups which operate beyond the border. The emblematic case is that of the Jammu and Kashmir territory, a federal state in which guerrilla warfare is active and supported in various ways, by Pakistan, a nation with which India has various disputes over borders. This merging of internal and external elements provokes and aggravates threats.
Geographically, India is surrounded by a complex of crisis situations which have internal repercussions, a complex which in synthesis can be described as a circle of fire. This circle of fire is itself made up by various other circles, due to the dangerous nature of the threat posed to Indian public order. The first ring is constituted by Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh; the second by China and Myanmar, while the third consists of Bhutan and the Maldives.
This work aims to highlight some deciders (also economic), two aspects which are substantially undervalued by the media (also by those who are concerned by this reality). One is that of the vastness and complexity of threats to Indias public security (even though they are considered to be superficial); the other is that of the effect over public order that relations with countries which are directly bordering have. Due to want for space, internal problems such as the role of organised criminality or the effects of corruption, or foreign policy, such as that of the alliances that New Delhi is consolidating. For the same reasons, there is a limit on the space dedicated to the role of single external subjects, to analyze those elements which influence Indias life.
The first ring
Data supplied by authorities and analysts paint a precise picture of India in reality as regards its security profile. It is calculated that in 231 of the 608 districts which comprise India, the phenomenon of guerrilla warfare and terrorism exists to differing extents. On a general level, the Asian countrys borders are affected, as is observed by Gurmeet Kanwal, by phenomenon such as cross-border terrorism, separatist guerrilla warfare, the entrenchment of arms and drug trafficking and clandestine immigration. According to Kanwal, the countrys problematic borders arent clearly understood its by political leadership and this translates into a lack of coordination over the control of the borders. Instead, this should be a priority, given the ease with which it can be controlled.
Pakistan and Islamic terrorism
The most obvious example is given by the western border. According to the Indian Armed Forces (AF), various terrorist groups of Islamic inspiration with bases in Pakistan freely cross the border and hit Indian territory, mainly in the state of Jammu and Kashmir.The maintenance of public order in this state is therefore particularly important for India, not only due to the gravity of the facts which befall it but also due to relations with more direct adversary, Pakistan. Jammu and Kashmir is a piece of territory contested between the two nations. 41% of deaths due to terrorism in India in 2007 were registered here. For some time political groups and guerrilla formations have been asking for the demilitarization of the state, alleging as a motivation, the progressive reduction (throughout the course of recent years) of episodes of violence and guerrilla infiltration attacks from Pakistani groups. But the central Authorities dont intend to remove the presence of the Armed Forces, untrusting of the decreasing trend in episodes of violence. It could in fact be the fruit of a plan (put into act mainly by Pakistan) aimed at lowering Indias level of attention, before striking. New Delhi is prepared to reduce the number of troops and to redeploy them, but not to leave the Line of Control (LoC) unguarded, the provisional border that divides the contested territory in two.
The Confidence Building Measures, those measures created in the diplomatic field to build the trust of the population and Pakistan, which up until now, hasnt had any significant results. It has attempted to stimulate communication between India and Pakistan, interrupted by three wars.The arrest of a soldier from the Islam inspired terrorist formation, Laskar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) originating from Manipur (north-eastern Indian state) leads us to believe that they are creating links with terrorist groups of various ideologies and with different platforms, particularly with the Moaist guerrilla group. According to Indian analysts, the Pakistani secret service Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) would then be looking to give momentum to terrorism of Klahistan matrix. This movement, entrenched in the Sikh community, aims towards the creation of an autonomous state sympathetic to the Indian Punjab. A series of political measures (but not only) put into place by New Delhi has in fact, overcome the Khalist guerrillas, whose presence is by now reduced to being marginal. But Islamabad, which has supported the group in the past, would like to re-activate this threat, through supporting groups such as Babbar Khalsa International. According to the ISI, Khalistan guerrilla groups are fused with those which are active in Kashmir.
In recent months in Islamabad, a complex phase of political transition has been underway. Even if it early for exact judgements, it can be confirmed that elements have emerged which lead us to hypothesize about Pakistan's change of attitude towards India. It is however clear that Islamic-inspired terrorism is caused by elements quite apart from Pakistani intervention or the intervention of other nations (such as Bangladesh). It is caused by the social and cultural malaise of various sections of the Indian Muslim community (which according to estimates, is numerically the second or third largest in the world). Growing Hindu nationalism (with which, acts of violence against the Islamic minority are in fact tolerated) contributes to the feeling of isolation felt above all by young Muslims, who could decide to use arms to fight against a situation which for them seems without end. Undoubtedly, the ISI takes advantage of this malaise, which is also born out of the inefficient policies put into place by the Indian political class.
Bangladesh and Islamic terrorism
The border with Bangladesh, along which clashes and killings of people who cross it take place, is characterised by the so-called Contested Enclaves and Territories. In other words, according to India, it has 111 enclaves on Bangladeshi territory (to a total of 17,158 acres) and there are 51 Bengalese enclaves on Indian territory (about 7000 acres). Thirty four pieces of land claimed by India are under the control of Dacca while 40 pieces of Bengalese territory are in India's possession. The 1974 Treaty for the solution of these controversies is yet to be applied.
So, despite the efforts taken regarding this, by Bengal, various terrorist groups continue to use their land as a base from which to hit India. New Delhi observes the establishment of integralist formations in Bengalese society with concern. The huge amount of clandestine immigration coming from Bangladesh risks destabilizing the demographic and political situations in the Indian states positioned on the border.
Nepal and the Maoist guerrillas
The ties between Indian Maoist and Nepalese guerrilla movements remains the point of focus for New Delhi in its relations with Kathmandu. The phase of Nepalese political instability, with the ever greater establishment of the Maoists of the Communist Party of Nepal- Maoist (CPN-M) is looked upon with concern by Indian observers (although New Delhi fails to put an effective strategy into place). Added to this are the anti-Indian declarations made at the CPN-M summits on various occasions. The intervention of Western powers in Nepalese goings-on is in fact a continual accusation of the guerrilla groups. To this is added the deep (and for some, definitive) crisis in the monarchy, whose defence used to constitute one of the two pillars in Indian policy towards Kathmandu (the other was the support given to the democratic system of a liberal nature). Even if the two insurrection movements are proceeding autonomously, the porosity of the border favours the making of contacts. It is noted that the soldiers of the Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-M) are becoming more active, exploiting the weakness of Governmental contrasting action. According to official estimates, the CPI-M could make available about 10,000 armed men and 45,000 soldiers. Within India's borders, Maoists have created a type of Red Corridor, a band of territory that goes from the state of Andhra Pradesh to Nepal, within which they have consolidated their power.
Action taken against firstly, Maoist guerrillas but also several other insurrection movements (apart from several exceptions) is clearly weakened by chronic deficiencies in the police force. Deriving from this deficiency, other weaknesses in the conduct of the secret services occur. This organism is weakened further by a scarcity of resources and training. From a political point of view, there is a substantial lack of coordination in the management of conflict. For various reasons this is mainly entrusted to individual states. This leads, among other things, to the politicization of the fight against guerrilla warfare, with approaches and strategies which vary from area to area (and are in some cases, divergent). Observers have accused the politicians of various states of making agreements with the Maoists and of standing in the way of the action of the police force, for electoral reasons. In several cases administrators haven't been able to predict (and as a consequence, stop) the establishment of the Maoists on their territory. The soldiers of the CPI-M are also making the most of the social malaise created by, for example, the more or less forced movement of the population, due to public and private infrastructural projects (such as steel factories etc). According to Indian intelligence, Maoists have managed to infiltrate the industrial complexes under construction with the aim of inciting a revolt. They have declared their will to collaborate with other guerrilla and terrorist groups which are active in other areas of the country.
Sri Lanka and Tamil guerrilla action
Since 1972, in Sri Lanka, a conflict has been underway between central Administration and movements born from the Tamil community. The clashes originate from the discriminatory policy taken towards the Tamil community, by the political class, predominately originating from Sri Lanka's Sinhalese ethnic majority.The main guerrilla group is the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) who fight for an independent Tamil state. For now, they have created their own autonomous territory in the north of the island with Kilinochchi as its capital and its own administrative structure. The LTTE are one of the groups with which the CPI-M has been looking to develop relations from the moment in which it became active both in Sri Lanka and in the Indian State of Tamil Nadu. On June 25th 2007 a training camp for Indian Maoists in the district on Theni was discovered. According to observers, Maoist followers would be interested in learning more sophisticated combative techniques from the LTTE, particularly the use of air-borne devices in guerrilla action. But it would also like to learn how to make the most of child soldiers.
From their point of view, the LTTE are interested in setting up refuges in Tamil Nadu to help them avoid the Sinhalese Armed Forces, which has seized control of the island's east and which also aims to take over the north, the stronghold of the insurrection movement. The emersion of relations between the two groups is something which worries New Delhi greatly and according to Tamil sources, several protocols with Sri Lanka will be signed to remedy this. These agreements will provide for, among other things, the exchange of intelligence information, above all regarding maritime movements.
Translation by Megan Ball
India: The circle of fire grows close (First Part)
