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India Responses to 'string of pearls'
India will have "to cope with the Rise of China" and as the respected journalist and former media adviser to the PM Dr Manmohan Singh who recently returned from China Sanjaya Baru stated at a prestigious seminar in New Delhi on 16th April, "Indians will have to accept China is miles ahead of India". The only major advantage India has is its strategic geographic locale jutting into the Indian Ocean, new friends in the West,a very intelligent though undisciplined people and a fine expanding Navy which needs nurturing and is the envy of China.
China's 1st October National Day Parade loaded with military power on display has been commented upon by the Economist as, "The world has accepted that China is emerging as a great power; it is a pity that it still does not always act as one", and goes on to say, " for many Chinese, daily life remains a grim struggle, and their government rapacious, arbitrary and corrupt. Take that spectacular parade. What message was it meant to convey to an awestruck world? China is a huge, newly emerging force on the world scene. And it is unapologetically authoritarian, as were Japan and Prussia, whose rises in the late 19th century were hardly trouble-free."
In recent years, a number of analysts have drawn attention to the similarities of nationalism between the rise of modern China and the rise of Wilhelmine Germany a century ago. Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria, commented that "like Germany in the late 19th century, China is also growing rapidly but uncertainly into a global system in which it feels it deserves more attention and honor. The Chinese military is a powerful political player, as was the Prussian officer corps. Like Wilhelmine Germany, the Chinese regime is trying to hold on to political power even as it unleashes forces in society that make its control increasingly shaky."
This is where India, and Indian Ocean come in. The strategic thinker Mahan had prophesised that the future of the world in the 21st Century would be decided on the waters of the Indian Ocean and India's expansion of its maritime power and Navy and inroads in to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is very much on China's radar. A US researcher from Boston Consulting had coined China's investment in ports like Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Sittwe in Mynmar and Chittagong in Bangla Desh as a 'String of Pearls' to encircle India, noting the pearls in the string can be increased, and China made overtures to lease an island in the Seychelles, which India appears to have thwarted.
The recent India- China sparring match on intrusions on the border, issuance of visas on separate paper arbitrarily by the Chinese Embassy to Kashmiris, and India's service chiefs commenting on India's order of battle(ORBAT) vis a vis China seems to be the flavor of the times, and needs to be introspected. The sparring had actually begun earlier, with the Chinese Ambassador's orchestrated claims on Arunachal and Tawang, and China's strong objections in the ADB forum to block India's developmental loan.
In 2006 Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh speaking at the Commander's conference , had made a policy statement when he stated,"India's growing international stature gives it strategic relevance in the area ranging from the Persian Gulf to the Straits of Malacca …..India has exploited the fluidities of the emerging world order to forge new links through a combination of diplomatic repositioning, economic resurgence and military firmness". Many dubbed this as India's 'Singh Doctrine', and China took note of this.[
In May 2009 at the Shangri 'la Dialogue in Singapore, the Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta confirmed the role of the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean in his key note address as, "We see the Indian Navy as a significant stabilising force in the Indian Ocean region, which safeguards traffic bound not only for our own ports, but also the flow of hydrocarbons and strategically important cargo to and from the rest of the world across the strategic waterways close to our shores…..And so, the safety of SLOCS will always remain a priority for India in the foreseeable future.".
Chinese researchers have taken up the gauntlet to staunchly defend China's String of Pearls, as small change to developing countries, since it claims India has built its ports with ADB and World bank loans, which these countries find difficult to come by Chinese naval analyst Zhang Ming recently proclaimed that the Islands of India's Andaman and Nicobar Archipelago could be used as a 'metal chain' to block Chinese access to the Straits of Malacca, and argued that India is building an 'Iron Curtain' in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR),and ganging up with USA, Japan and Australia in what is called the Quad. The Japanese used the Andaman and Nicobar islands in the second world war as airfields for launching strikes, and are strategically located.
It is less publicised or talked about, yet the Chinese cite that in the last two decades India has stealthily strengthened its involvement in the IOR which includes the islands of Mauritius, Maldives, Seychelles, Madagascar and Zanzibar and the rim states of South Africa, Tanzania and Mozambique [/COLOR]by very deft moves in foreign policy, economic sops like the double taxation exemption with Mauritius, and military inroads. Recently Defence Minister AK Antony visited Maldives and has promised to set up a radar chain for the country. This is the classical strategy of gaining influence by conjoining economic power and perks, with military diplomacy called 'Showing the Flag', so well perfected by larger maritime naval powers in the past. In recent times the Indian Navy has generously transferred offshore naval patrol vessels, provided staff and training and refit facilities and most importantly provided free and subsidised naval hydrographic support to the island nations of the IOR, which steps have left strategic imprints.
The Indian Navy has a very sophisticated hydrographic branch with 8 large well equipped survey ships, many survey craft, a large electronic chart production centre in Dehra Dun and a world class hydrographic school at Goa which trains several foreign naval and civilian personnel annually.Much funding for the Navy's survey vessels has been contributed by the Ministry of Shipping, which allowed easier induction of latest equipment, and a swifter procurement route than the cumbersome MOD's DPP-08. As a silent strategic arm of the nation the Navy's hydrographic branch has made forays in the IOR to undertake over a dozen survey assignments for island nations and recently executed surveys in Oman, and now is set to assist Saudi Arabia, for which an MOU has been signed. These successes have almost blocked out the more expensive western navies that had provided essentially needed hydrographic support to the island nations with large coast lines and EEZ in the past.
The Indian Ocean holds immense significance for India's development in the 21st century and the Chatham House paper states, "India's strategy is deepening not only commercially but due to concerns over its security and hegemony in the region, which are underpinned by India's Maritime Doctrine." The Chinese look at Indian Navy's gathering of 28 IOR Naval Chiefs including France, as a riparian state, under one roof at Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) in February 2008 in New Delhi and Goa for a retreat, as ganging up. The next IONS is being hosted by the UAE in March 2010 and Rear Admiral Ahmed Mohammed Al Sabab Chief of the UAE Navy and a graduate of the Pakistan Naval Acadmey who visited India in 2009, and will take over the Chairmanship. The preparatory meeting was held in Mombasa from 1st October, 2009.
The India Brazil South Africa(IBSA) grouping which was designed for commercial links, provision of energy and other resources from Africa is viewed by China as another grouping. In recent times China has taken the lead in what is seen as its 'Scramble for Africas'for resources, earlier made famous in a book by that title by Thomas Pakenham. India's maritime military strategy and the Navy's Maritime doctrine, both issued by the Indian Navy are clear on the Navy's responsibility for security support in region. The outgoing Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta made this amply clear at the Shangri'la dialogue stating, "Concerted efforts at capability enhancement and capacity building of the smaller countries of the region(IOR), through active assistance of larger neighbours, would be crucial to such efforts in the long term".
In this endeavour, India has a special relationship with Mauritius, a fulcrum island state because of its strong Indian diaspora and instituted a favourable taxation treaty that makes it India's largest offshore investor. The Indian Navy set up the Mauritius Coast Guard in the 70s and provided ships and personnel. Mauritius has close security coordination with India, and Chinese and Pakistan activities in the IOR are closely monitored by India's intelligence. The India-China competition to seek influence in the region is set to intensify as China's cheque book diplomacy currently finds favour in small African states and in Sudan and Zimbabwe. Deng's philosophy of ' the colour of the cat does not matter as long as it catches rats', is still relevant.
When the IOR-ARC, the Arrangement for Regional Cooperation was formed Mauritius, Madagascar and Mozambique supported India's move to block Pakistan's membership and later China's access to IBSA, though Pakistan is a full member of IONS. The Indian Navy has also made in roads to gain over flying and berthing rights in Oman which holds a strategic position especially for the fight against piracy off the Gulf of Aden, and from where India can closely monitors the SLOCs of Hormuz and Aden. India has signed to provide piracy patrols to Mozambique and it was also reported India has established a listening post in Madagascar in 2007. Chinese highlight these issues.
India's maritime swath is from Aden, the Straits of Hormuz to the Strait of Malacca as a region of its watch, and Mahan appears to have seen the coming importance of this region which provides 70% of the world's hydro carbons. K Santhanam former Director of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis(IDSA) and one of the architects of India's nuclear programme as the Project Director of India's 1998 nuclear blasts, with a back ground in intelligence and nuclear science, has coined the C3I theory for India- China relations and needs heeding. He is convinced India and China will seek cooperation as China has become India's largest trade partner totting up $ 40 bill, and yet will always be in competition for markets and influence, and in the future confrontation cannot be ruled out if both nations' interests clash. This writer feels the world has to be prepared for that contingency as nation's juggle to balance China and India, both growing economic powers, in their overall relations. In this matrix Santhanam avers Intelligence which includes cyber warfare will play a major role to ensure which nation succeeds better to gain influence, hence Santhanam's C3I theory of cooperation, competition and possible confrontation is eye opening for strategic gazers of the scenario. In this matrix the China- Pakistan nexus and the future of Afghanistan where India has interests is also a muddied by military operations against the Taliban and Al Queda.
China also has a 'Malacca Dilemma', and contributes generously to the Tripartite Technical Expert Group (TTEG) of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore that control the Malacca Straits. India too has contributed $ 1.2 million as a response, and advanced $ 774,000 to TTEG on 31st March, 2009. What has irked the Chinese is the Indian Navy's offer to survey wrecks in the Malacca Straits which has been accepted by the TTEG.India looks at hydrographic assistance as a cooperative measure, while China sees this as strategic move by India by its hydrographic prowess, which has notched up successes.
The Chinese and Indian swords are sheathed for the time being, but could be out and India has to be prepared for the String of Pearls vs the Iron Curtain debate in what Santhnam has coined as C3I, for it was Chi Haotin who had said, "Indian Ocean is not India's Ocean". As the Chinese say never dig a spear in to the Dragon's eye. India will have to cope, and add a C to the C3I. Both nations have internal challenges of rampant poverty, and it is also been said, India is like boiling water. Steam and froth on top but rather calm below. China is like boiling oil, calm above but violent and seething below. If and when an eruption does takes place in any nation, it could be violent. The jury is still not out whether the Chinese top down approach is superior to India's rather slower, democratic and consensual approach.
India Defence Update: Article
India Defence Update: Article
DONT FORGET TO DROP THANKS
India will have "to cope with the Rise of China" and as the respected journalist and former media adviser to the PM Dr Manmohan Singh who recently returned from China Sanjaya Baru stated at a prestigious seminar in New Delhi on 16th April, "Indians will have to accept China is miles ahead of India". The only major advantage India has is its strategic geographic locale jutting into the Indian Ocean, new friends in the West,a very intelligent though undisciplined people and a fine expanding Navy which needs nurturing and is the envy of China.
China's 1st October National Day Parade loaded with military power on display has been commented upon by the Economist as, "The world has accepted that China is emerging as a great power; it is a pity that it still does not always act as one", and goes on to say, " for many Chinese, daily life remains a grim struggle, and their government rapacious, arbitrary and corrupt. Take that spectacular parade. What message was it meant to convey to an awestruck world? China is a huge, newly emerging force on the world scene. And it is unapologetically authoritarian, as were Japan and Prussia, whose rises in the late 19th century were hardly trouble-free."
In recent years, a number of analysts have drawn attention to the similarities of nationalism between the rise of modern China and the rise of Wilhelmine Germany a century ago. Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria, commented that "like Germany in the late 19th century, China is also growing rapidly but uncertainly into a global system in which it feels it deserves more attention and honor. The Chinese military is a powerful political player, as was the Prussian officer corps. Like Wilhelmine Germany, the Chinese regime is trying to hold on to political power even as it unleashes forces in society that make its control increasingly shaky."
This is where India, and Indian Ocean come in. The strategic thinker Mahan had prophesised that the future of the world in the 21st Century would be decided on the waters of the Indian Ocean and India's expansion of its maritime power and Navy and inroads in to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is very much on China's radar. A US researcher from Boston Consulting had coined China's investment in ports like Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Sittwe in Mynmar and Chittagong in Bangla Desh as a 'String of Pearls' to encircle India, noting the pearls in the string can be increased, and China made overtures to lease an island in the Seychelles, which India appears to have thwarted.
The recent India- China sparring match on intrusions on the border, issuance of visas on separate paper arbitrarily by the Chinese Embassy to Kashmiris, and India's service chiefs commenting on India's order of battle(ORBAT) vis a vis China seems to be the flavor of the times, and needs to be introspected. The sparring had actually begun earlier, with the Chinese Ambassador's orchestrated claims on Arunachal and Tawang, and China's strong objections in the ADB forum to block India's developmental loan.
In 2006 Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh speaking at the Commander's conference , had made a policy statement when he stated,"India's growing international stature gives it strategic relevance in the area ranging from the Persian Gulf to the Straits of Malacca …..India has exploited the fluidities of the emerging world order to forge new links through a combination of diplomatic repositioning, economic resurgence and military firmness". Many dubbed this as India's 'Singh Doctrine', and China took note of this.[
In May 2009 at the Shangri 'la Dialogue in Singapore, the Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta confirmed the role of the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean in his key note address as, "We see the Indian Navy as a significant stabilising force in the Indian Ocean region, which safeguards traffic bound not only for our own ports, but also the flow of hydrocarbons and strategically important cargo to and from the rest of the world across the strategic waterways close to our shores…..And so, the safety of SLOCS will always remain a priority for India in the foreseeable future.".
Chinese researchers have taken up the gauntlet to staunchly defend China's String of Pearls, as small change to developing countries, since it claims India has built its ports with ADB and World bank loans, which these countries find difficult to come by Chinese naval analyst Zhang Ming recently proclaimed that the Islands of India's Andaman and Nicobar Archipelago could be used as a 'metal chain' to block Chinese access to the Straits of Malacca, and argued that India is building an 'Iron Curtain' in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR),and ganging up with USA, Japan and Australia in what is called the Quad. The Japanese used the Andaman and Nicobar islands in the second world war as airfields for launching strikes, and are strategically located.
It is less publicised or talked about, yet the Chinese cite that in the last two decades India has stealthily strengthened its involvement in the IOR which includes the islands of Mauritius, Maldives, Seychelles, Madagascar and Zanzibar and the rim states of South Africa, Tanzania and Mozambique [/COLOR]by very deft moves in foreign policy, economic sops like the double taxation exemption with Mauritius, and military inroads. Recently Defence Minister AK Antony visited Maldives and has promised to set up a radar chain for the country. This is the classical strategy of gaining influence by conjoining economic power and perks, with military diplomacy called 'Showing the Flag', so well perfected by larger maritime naval powers in the past. In recent times the Indian Navy has generously transferred offshore naval patrol vessels, provided staff and training and refit facilities and most importantly provided free and subsidised naval hydrographic support to the island nations of the IOR, which steps have left strategic imprints.
The Indian Navy has a very sophisticated hydrographic branch with 8 large well equipped survey ships, many survey craft, a large electronic chart production centre in Dehra Dun and a world class hydrographic school at Goa which trains several foreign naval and civilian personnel annually.Much funding for the Navy's survey vessels has been contributed by the Ministry of Shipping, which allowed easier induction of latest equipment, and a swifter procurement route than the cumbersome MOD's DPP-08. As a silent strategic arm of the nation the Navy's hydrographic branch has made forays in the IOR to undertake over a dozen survey assignments for island nations and recently executed surveys in Oman, and now is set to assist Saudi Arabia, for which an MOU has been signed. These successes have almost blocked out the more expensive western navies that had provided essentially needed hydrographic support to the island nations with large coast lines and EEZ in the past.
The Indian Ocean holds immense significance for India's development in the 21st century and the Chatham House paper states, "India's strategy is deepening not only commercially but due to concerns over its security and hegemony in the region, which are underpinned by India's Maritime Doctrine." The Chinese look at Indian Navy's gathering of 28 IOR Naval Chiefs including France, as a riparian state, under one roof at Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) in February 2008 in New Delhi and Goa for a retreat, as ganging up. The next IONS is being hosted by the UAE in March 2010 and Rear Admiral Ahmed Mohammed Al Sabab Chief of the UAE Navy and a graduate of the Pakistan Naval Acadmey who visited India in 2009, and will take over the Chairmanship. The preparatory meeting was held in Mombasa from 1st October, 2009.
The India Brazil South Africa(IBSA) grouping which was designed for commercial links, provision of energy and other resources from Africa is viewed by China as another grouping. In recent times China has taken the lead in what is seen as its 'Scramble for Africas'for resources, earlier made famous in a book by that title by Thomas Pakenham. India's maritime military strategy and the Navy's Maritime doctrine, both issued by the Indian Navy are clear on the Navy's responsibility for security support in region. The outgoing Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta made this amply clear at the Shangri'la dialogue stating, "Concerted efforts at capability enhancement and capacity building of the smaller countries of the region(IOR), through active assistance of larger neighbours, would be crucial to such efforts in the long term".
In this endeavour, India has a special relationship with Mauritius, a fulcrum island state because of its strong Indian diaspora and instituted a favourable taxation treaty that makes it India's largest offshore investor. The Indian Navy set up the Mauritius Coast Guard in the 70s and provided ships and personnel. Mauritius has close security coordination with India, and Chinese and Pakistan activities in the IOR are closely monitored by India's intelligence. The India-China competition to seek influence in the region is set to intensify as China's cheque book diplomacy currently finds favour in small African states and in Sudan and Zimbabwe. Deng's philosophy of ' the colour of the cat does not matter as long as it catches rats', is still relevant.
When the IOR-ARC, the Arrangement for Regional Cooperation was formed Mauritius, Madagascar and Mozambique supported India's move to block Pakistan's membership and later China's access to IBSA, though Pakistan is a full member of IONS. The Indian Navy has also made in roads to gain over flying and berthing rights in Oman which holds a strategic position especially for the fight against piracy off the Gulf of Aden, and from where India can closely monitors the SLOCs of Hormuz and Aden. India has signed to provide piracy patrols to Mozambique and it was also reported India has established a listening post in Madagascar in 2007. Chinese highlight these issues.
India's maritime swath is from Aden, the Straits of Hormuz to the Strait of Malacca as a region of its watch, and Mahan appears to have seen the coming importance of this region which provides 70% of the world's hydro carbons. K Santhanam former Director of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis(IDSA) and one of the architects of India's nuclear programme as the Project Director of India's 1998 nuclear blasts, with a back ground in intelligence and nuclear science, has coined the C3I theory for India- China relations and needs heeding. He is convinced India and China will seek cooperation as China has become India's largest trade partner totting up $ 40 bill, and yet will always be in competition for markets and influence, and in the future confrontation cannot be ruled out if both nations' interests clash. This writer feels the world has to be prepared for that contingency as nation's juggle to balance China and India, both growing economic powers, in their overall relations. In this matrix Santhanam avers Intelligence which includes cyber warfare will play a major role to ensure which nation succeeds better to gain influence, hence Santhanam's C3I theory of cooperation, competition and possible confrontation is eye opening for strategic gazers of the scenario. In this matrix the China- Pakistan nexus and the future of Afghanistan where India has interests is also a muddied by military operations against the Taliban and Al Queda.
China also has a 'Malacca Dilemma', and contributes generously to the Tripartite Technical Expert Group (TTEG) of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore that control the Malacca Straits. India too has contributed $ 1.2 million as a response, and advanced $ 774,000 to TTEG on 31st March, 2009. What has irked the Chinese is the Indian Navy's offer to survey wrecks in the Malacca Straits which has been accepted by the TTEG.India looks at hydrographic assistance as a cooperative measure, while China sees this as strategic move by India by its hydrographic prowess, which has notched up successes.
The Chinese and Indian swords are sheathed for the time being, but could be out and India has to be prepared for the String of Pearls vs the Iron Curtain debate in what Santhnam has coined as C3I, for it was Chi Haotin who had said, "Indian Ocean is not India's Ocean". As the Chinese say never dig a spear in to the Dragon's eye. India will have to cope, and add a C to the C3I. Both nations have internal challenges of rampant poverty, and it is also been said, India is like boiling water. Steam and froth on top but rather calm below. China is like boiling oil, calm above but violent and seething below. If and when an eruption does takes place in any nation, it could be violent. The jury is still not out whether the Chinese top down approach is superior to India's rather slower, democratic and consensual approach.
India Defence Update: Article
India Defence Update: Article
DONT FORGET TO DROP THANKS
