Nilgiri
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1.If only things were that easy for occupation force than Algeria would never gained independence against France.Algeria was not a colony but constituent part of mainland France and French deployed 400,000 troops to crush the rebellion of 10 million Algerian with NATO backing.But Algerian fought for 12 years,a lot of people were died,but gained independence.In 1971,our determination for independence was no less than Algerian or Vietnamese.
France did not have a hostile nation several times larger between it and Algeria that Algeria could ask help from.
France also was not under a military dictatorship that could essentially indefinitely continue the war if it so desired.
France blinked first because at the end of 12 years they had nothing to show for all they put in....and democracy took its course.
That's a very different scenario to a hypothetical 1971 with a neutral/friendly/uninvolved India and massively armed Pakistan with a military dictatorship....that controlled East Pakistan waters and foreign merchant shipping as well.
You literally would have had to scrounge and steal in a small piece of turf with few places to hide. Sorry, any neutral analysis would put Pakistan as remaining the occupying force as long as it really wanted to.
2.Many Indian have a habit of comparing East Pakistan with Balochistan.East Pakistan was 55 percent of entire Pakistan while Balochistan was 2 percent.Balochi even don't have majority in their own province,only a few tribe want independence,have a long border with rest of Pakistan.It is not difficult to understand that Pakistan will crush Balochistan rebellion with relatively easy.Same case with rebellion in Indian north-east,rebels are too small and vast majority of north-eastern people don't support them.
W. Pakistan would easily crush and quell E. Pakistan if India was neutral or friendly to W. Pakistan. You simply have no source of arms and ammunition that can sustain you against a professional military backed crucially by a military dictatorship and W. Pakistan political elite. The 9 months they were there already have you claiming they killed 3 million of you. Now imagine many years of that...you simply would have given up....vast majority of you are not born warriors or suicidal fanatics or something. They would have had full arms supply, you would have run to a small trickle and eventually that would have doomed you if no one from the outside backed you.
3.If you read the international newspaper of that time,it is clearly evident that Pakistan was suffering a lot economically due to turmoil in East Pakistan.Their economy became desperate as early as June-July.There was a growing desperation on part of Pakistan to find a political solution and a 'withdrawal with dignity'.That's why they made a Bengali Nurul Amin as the PM of Pakistan during the war and even thinking about negotiation with Awami League.There was no way Pakistan could support a military operation in East Pakistan year after year without ruining themselves.
Thats all precisely because of Indian assisstance to MB forces. Without that, the strain on Pakistan's logistics would have been minimal, and it would be a case of keeping a restive province under military control....and liquidating any rebels as they prop up. Without major organisation, funding, supply and training (in a country outside immediate conflict zone with enough strategic depth and international contacts to sustain it), MB would simply not be a fighting force like it was....and would have been dealt with by Pakistan relatively easily.
Don't forget how much your own local economy would have been sapped (to a much higher degree) than Pakistan's in a one on one extended conflict given a civil war would have polarised East Pakistan extensively over time. You definitely would have blinked first. If you don't believe that, thats fine.
4.By the October-November Mukti Bahini guerrilla attack increases so much that Pakistani army became fearful about defeat.But they were too ashamed to acknowledge this and decided to turn it into another Indo-Pak war to save their dignity from loosing against a guerrilla force.Their was also concern about treatment of beleaguered Pakistani troops at the hands of Mukti Bahini.At least Indian will follow Geneva convention.So they decided to be defeated under superior Indian forces.That's why they attacked western Indian airfield in 3rd December to turn it into another Indo-Pak war.So Pakistan got the opportunity to a mass surrender in East Pakistan and gave minimam resistance in the western front knowing that this war is a lost cause.Mukti Bahini didn't asked Indian force to directly involve in Eastern war theatre.Indian jumped in that war to claim the last moment glory.
A BAL propagandist couldn't have said it better. Ever wonder why both India and Pakistan dont give you propagandists any honour or respect regarding 1971? Its because you didn't earn any....only MB did earn respect from many Indians...but that does not mean they did not rely on India heavily.
Again the MB "guerilla attacks" could only sustain their level of activity because of Indian support. They would have essentially been wiped out (or made into low level insurgency like in Balochistan) months ago before December if it weren't the case. Trying to steal supplies, arms and ammo from the Pak military would only go so far. You got armed, trained and sheltered big time by India (thats the real heavy lifting in 1971), no shame in accepting that.
5.Indian assistance, although substantial,was not the only decisive factor.Even with neutral India, Bangladesh would still have emerged as an independent country,with considerable longer time requirement.But India could not go this opportunity of a life time so easily.So we got the independence in only 9 months and Indian got the opportunity to brag against Bangladesh and Pakistan.
No need to brag once people aren't trolling. If Pakistan and India's roles were perfectly reversed, the exact same result would have happened....with BD still relying heavily on support from its immediate neighbour (without which it would have been crushed).
This is simply a case of the level of logistics, arms and training available to one side for commiting to a war effort.
The defending side doesn't have much defenders advantage given the population is polarised, and the enemy forces are already deeply entrenched in your land.
Why do you think Israel completely dominates Palestine to this day and will essentially only leave completely on its own terms? It has access to much greater resources, logistics, weaponry, training....and the Palestinians are nowhere near the level of polarised that East Pakistan was and Bangladesh still is to this day.
So no you would have not been anywhere near to independent even today if India was neutral or pro-Pakistan to this conflict and severely restricted or prevented support to MB. Whats left of you would just be a far worse basket case, and you would be under the Pakistan flag....and most people probably would have already forgotten the uprising and have learned Urdu if they went to school. It would be a police state essentially....but you have that now anyway given your polarisation almost exactly down the middle. Why would you think that BD civilians could sustain anything indefinitely once they face insurmountable losses? You gave away your land and right to rule for far far less against all "invaders" before.....precisely because no one big was there right next door to shoulder your burden and provide most of the war buffer. When this option isn't there, you simply give up and acquiesce after any initial resistance. Thats how it goes....no point denying it.
The only thing worse than bragging beyond reason is staking fake glory and honour.
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