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India-Pakistan standoff to hurt fight against terrorism: top US experts
WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (APP): Any military standoff between India and Pakistan over Mumbai attacks will hurt the fight against terrorism and serve the purpose of terrorists, top American experts warned while urging Washington on sustained efforts to help resolve sources of insecurity in the high-stakes region.
Lets be responsible about these things, let the investigation run its course and lets remember that at the end of the day there is not a war option to resolve this question, foreign policy analyst and counterterrorism expert Bruce Riedel, who has been advising President-elect Barack Obama on South Asia, said.
He was speaking at Washingtons Brooking Institution, where South Asian experts examined pitfalls and possibilities facing the two nuclear armed neighbours as the United States sent two emissaries on a de-escalation mission to the region, where it needs Pakistan to fight terrorists on the Afghan border.
One of the plans behind this attack was to provoke and put further strains on India-Pakistan relations. Clearly that is the goal of terrorists, said Dr Stephen Cohen, a seasoned expert on South Asian security and foreign policy issues. He called for strategic solutions to problems.
The experts recalled that extremists on the Afghan border found a breathing space to thrive when Pakistan moved its forces on the eastern border in response to Indian deployment during a tense 2001-02 face-off.
Vanda Felbab-Brown, a security studies professor at Georgetown Universitys School of Foreign Service, analysed regional implications of terrorism in the interwoven Pakistan-India-Afghanistan perspective.
Most immediately, tension between India and Pakistan, if it escalates, could most directly diminish the attention and resources Pakistan devotes to its Western front, she said.
Islamabad, she noted, has already stated in the past two days, that if the situation with India escalates, it would divert its troops to the eastern border with India.
Diplomacy needs to focus on reducing tensions between India and Pakistan, she said, adding that a moderate response to the Mumbai attack would be in Indias interest.
The discussion also focused on the critical need to have a regional framework to curb the menace of terrorism, also engaging countries like China, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India.
Pakistan, which itself has gone through sufferings at the hands of terrorists, should be encouraged to sustain action against violent extremists, the participants said but also cautioned that pressuring the country too much could lead to destabilization.
Bruce Riedel and Stephen Cohen lauded President Asif Ali Zardaris recent sincere peace overtures to New Delhi.
We should work with Zardari, encourage India to work with Zardari, Cohen added.
Cohen critically reviewed the Pakistani and Indian policies and pointed out Indias profound ambiguity regarding its approach to relations with Pakistan. Indians are profoundly ambiguous. Some would like to normalize relations with Pakistan and respond to Zardaris overtures, which I think are sincere.
Others would like to break up Pakistan and still others will like to ignore Pakistan, he added. So there is a dilemma for the Indians that they have no settled Pakistan policy.
He said it is up to the Pakistanis to take the Marriott bombing as a wake-up call and go after terrorism more effectively to get rid of the menace. India, he said, is part of the problem and part of the solution also.
The author of several books on Pakistan and India said New Delhis coming forward to resolve Siachen and Sir Creek disputes would be helpful.
The participants also looked into Pakistan-India tensions vis-a-vis Afghanistan with Vanda Brown agreeing in response to a question on the need to ratchet down the temperature.
While Indias opening consulates in Afghanistan could be understandable from the point of view of advancing it economic ties, it is clearly important to restrain Indias activities in Afghanistan, she said.
The experts discussed the attackers alleged link to banned organization
Lashkar-e-Tayiba as claimed by India and also probed the global terrorism context
of the Mumbai episode in view of the fact that the targeted victims belonged to several nations.
However experts cautioned against jumping to any conclusions.
Let me caution, investigation of this massacre is only now beginning.
Its in the very early starting phase. There is no serious claim of responsibility or explanation or justification yet in the public or the media from a known activity. There is phone call. Thats all, Bruce Riedel said.
Much is unknown about the planning and the planners behind the plot.
There is tremendous contradictory information available in the public domain. And
all that needs to be sorted out, he added. He also called for considering the possibility that the terrorists deliberately brought with them misleading disinformation to throw the investigators off the real target.
He said terrorism in India is a complex phenomenon with multiple
actors,- including the Indian Mujahideen and Hindu inspired elements and informed
that terrorism sponsored by rural Maoists insurgents, the naxalites, kills more people in the country than every group else combined.