India likely to become 3rd largest economy by 2030: Report

[cloud_9]

But don't you think the 285$ of 1982 were better than 1414$ of today? lol i was not even born back then but I've heard things were very cheap in those years...even in 90's(for instance if you check gas prices of US in 90's then gas was less than a $/gal & today it is close to $4/gal) Any economic expert is requested to correct me if i' am wrong.

Those figures are with current prices(US$).

But if standard of living is concerned then GDP per capita (PPP) is mostly used,then again comparing 1980 to 2013 is tricky and I got no clue how that can be done

 

[Roybot]

Don't understand why Indian Trolls here are doing the Loongi Dance !
The News article about India becoming 3rd largest economy is nothing but HYPE ! The article was written just to cheer up sad Indians who watch their country's currency fall all the way to the bottom of the Indian Ocean.

How can someone be so incredibly daft!

It clearly says that the report was prepared by standard chartered and not written by an Indian. But then again not surprised to see a Pakistani burning with hatred over such reports.

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The super-cycle lives: emerging markets growth is key - Standard Chartered Bank

 

[Roybot]

India – A few lost years, but this is not 1991
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One country that has lost out on account of reform paralysis is India. As part of its 11th Five-Year Plan, the Indian government aimed to hit double-digit growth by FY11 (year ended March 2011). The global financial crisis effectively put paid to this but the growth slowdown that has followed has its roots more in domestic growth bottlenecks rather than any external headwind.

Consequently, compared with our view in 2010, India‟s growth profile over 2010-30 now looks much weaker. We now expect verage growth of 6.7% p.a. versus our 2010 forecast of 8.6% p.a. over the same period. India‟s share of global GDP at present is only about one-third of China‟s, at 4%. Therefore this slowdown does not materially alter our global growth forecasts. But longer term, faster growth in India is an important part of the super-cycle story. India will account for nearly one-third of the increase in the world‟s working-age population by 2030. For the world to see strong economic growth in the 2020s and beyond, India needs this larger workforce to be equipped with the skills and technology needed for rapid development.

We believe that while many of the reforms required of India to boost growth may difficult to achieve in the context of coalition governments in a pluralistic democracy, they may nevertheless be easier than the changes required of those countries mired in the middle-income trap. This has already been demonstrated in some states in recent years where growth has accelerated dramatically, including Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa. Gujarat has maintained double-digit growth for over a decade.

The main constraint on the desired growth spurt in India comes from an infrastructure deficit (Figure 34). Strong domestic demand but a lack of supply response has led to an adverse combination of twin deficits and stubbornly high inflation. This has resulted in investor sentiment turning sharply against India – with some worries that India could need IMF assistance similar to the 1991 period.

However, comparisons with 1991 are unfair in our view. There is no denying that India‟s economic fundamentals could be improved, but they are much better than in the early 1990s. India‟s domestic economic structure has evolved with a larger service sector (66% of GDP versus 50% in 1991) providing stability and a liberalised industrial sector, lowering the likelihood of any sharp drop in growth. India‟s net foreign assets now stand at 16% of GDP compared with only 3.0% in 1991. FX reserves more than cover short-term debt obligations and also provide import cover of 6.5-7.0 months (only one month of cover in 1991). It has a much healthier financial position, with stable inflows including NRI deposits, remittances and FDI inflows now accounting for just under 85% of the trade deficit compared with only 55% in 1991
(see On the Ground, 28 August 2013, Asia macro – Time for a 'reality check')

At the same time, Indian policy makers also appear to be responding to the concerns, with monetary policy now firmly signalling an anti-inflation stance and measures being taken to address the funding of the large current account deficit. We also remain optimistic that the focus on reforms will pick up speed once the election cycle is out of the way (a general election is expected to be held in May 2014).

http://www.standardchartered.com/en...f/Research/The-super-cycle-lives-06-11-13.pdf​

 

[cirr]

Forget about these useless forecasts。

Do more，talk less。

 

[UKBengali]

Fa

Rather optimistic, we are still to see how we deal with switching to a service and innovation based economy, as anything above 10,000 per capita nominal is way too much for cheap manufacturing.

So maybe we will slow down even further, nobody knows for sure.

Fair enough.

Only time will tell.

 

[+4vsgorillas-Apebane]

China 53 trillion in 2030? In nominal terms?
This chart is extremely optimistic.

Let the Indians celebrate their future glory and super power status. I think most Chinese here are more inclined to be realistic and stoic.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China 53 trillion in 2030? In nominal terms?
This chart is extremely optimistic.

Let the Indians celebrate their future glory and super power status. I think most Chinese here are more inclined to be realistic and stoic.

They think our economy is going to be 53 trillion?

The guys at Standard Chartered must be smoking some really strong stuff, they keep preaching about the world being in an "Economic super-cycle", but look at the actual growth numbers which have fallen drastically compared to last decade.

 

[Hyde]

Hafizzz created this thread?

Oh my God!!!!!!

Sorry Hafizzz but this is a banned topic and only allowed if posted in the sticky economy news thread about India.