INDIA HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF OVERTAKING CHINA

[Paan Singh]

Currently there 20 million Chinese studying in universities in China, there are also a large number studying in western countries.
I am wondering what is the stats in india? do they have 2 million university students?

How many universities the regime in Delhi fund? 100?

india produces 0.4 million engineers every years...
most of them are computer engineer......
so u can estimate rest of the figures

 

[marshall]

The energy oil provides actually is discounting in many ways. For example in transportation Oil is by far the cheapest and most efficient form of energy especially when it comes to Shipping and Aviation. As cars go current technology has still not found a suitable replacement for the energy provided by a simple tank of gas.

I didn't say oil can be completely replaced, I mentioned 5 specific items that can directly or indirectly substitute for oil. This will allow the remaining oil to be more than adequate for a very very long time. Let's ignore these 5 items and concentrate on just regular traditional crude oil. First, there are vast reserves of oil sands and shale oil that I did not mention that become price competitive once oil exceeds $100. In the case of oil sands it's actually price competitive under $70 depending on the existing infrastructure already in place. Oil sands have the potential to produce as much oil as Saudi Arabia and maintain that production for over 100 years. In the case of CTL (Coal To Liquid) oil, this is price competitive between $45-70 depending on the quality of the coal used. This is why China already has several large scale CTL projects in various stages of construction because they are now price competitive. These are not pilot projects, they are full scale industrial plants producing millions of barrels of oil NOW. If there was an oil crisis, China with it's gigantic coal reserves, would immediately begin a crash program to substitute imported oil for CTL oil. There is also oil shale. This is where the greatest source of traditional crude oil can be extracted.

I haven't gone into new oil extraction technologies related to fraking but this is yet another breakthrough that will allowing adding of TWO Saudi Arabia's. Look up "Bakken" oil field and production numbers there will exceed the Gulf of Mexico oil production in the near future with potential to extract double Saudi Arabia's total oil reserves. That's reserves not annual production. We can talk about oil constraints, that's a reality but oil isn't running out anytime soon. Peak Oil is much adieu about nothing, at least not before our grand childrens lifetime.

Other concerns of course are oil based fertilizers used in almost every part of the world food production and other stuff like soap, detergents, plastics etc etc which we use in our daily lives.

And mining also uses a huge amount of energy which in practical sense is suitably powered by oil, I doubt any battery/CNG powered dump truck would last half as long as what we have currently today.

These are not problems because oil isn't running out anytime soon. Before it does begin drying up, over 100 years from now, 1 or more of the 5 alternative energy sources I previously mentioned will begin supplementing oil. Besides this, clean high energy density oil replacements can be synthesized, but that is another story.

 

[Merilion]

This is a direct result of elitist entitlement mentality, better known as superiority complex. China's continuing success challenges the beliefs of those who use those beliefs as a self-endowed privilege to lecture and/or belittle others. The dynamic is very similar to how a teacher with years of experience has a student who does things completely opposite of what the teacher is trying to teach them, yet succeeds despite the warnings of the teacher. This makes the teacher look bad in front of all the other students and causes the teacher to lose authority. This is the conundrum faced by all the brow beating journalists and free-press (but not free-THINKing) media who have been beating various mantras for years that China demolishes with its glaring success. That's why you see free press (but not free-THINKing) media do the 24/7 unconstructive criticism. Twenty years ago, it might have been well meaning constructive criticism. However, today it's a blatant hidden wish that China has a bloody revolution, so they can be proved right and their superiority complex doesn't become an inferiority complex like it unfortunately has become in India's upper classes.

very well said, cannot agree more

 

[Brotherhood]

Wow, 0.4 million engineer? good for India, hopefully it wasn't too good to be true this time, otherwise it might end up like.....

WASHINGTON: It's an Internet myth that has taken on a life of its own. No matter how often you slay this phony legend, it keeps popping up again like some hydra-headed beast.

But on Monday, the Indian government itself consecrated the oft-circulated fiction as fact in Parliament, possibly laying itself open to a breach of privilege. By relaying to Rajya Sabha members (as reported in The Times of India) a host of unsubstantiated and inflated figures about Indian professionals in US, the government also made a laughing stock of itself.

The figures provided by the Minister of State for Human Resource Development Purandeshwari included claims that 38 per cent of doctors in US are Indians, as are 36 per cent of NASA scientists and 34 per cent of Microsoft employees.
36% Indian-American Scientists at NASA - an internet hoax - Democratic Underground

 

[cross1993]

This is a direct result of elitist entitlement mentality, better known as superiority complex. China's continuing success challenges the beliefs of those who use those beliefs as a self-endowed privilege to lecture and/or belittle others. The dynamic is very similar to how a teacher with years of experience has a student who does things completely opposite of what the teacher is trying to teach them, yet succeeds despite the warnings of the teacher. This makes the teacher look bad in front of all the other students and causes the teacher to lose authority. This is the conundrum faced by all the brow beating journalists and free-press (but not free-THINKing) media who have been beating various mantras for years that China demolishes with its glaring success. That's why you see free press (but not free-THINKing) media do the 24/7 unconstructive criticism. Twenty years ago, it might have been well meaning constructive criticism. However, today it's a blatant hidden wish that China has a bloody revolution, so they can be proved right and their superiority complex doesn't become an inferiority complex like it unfortunately has become in India's upper classes.

So that is what it is...

 

[below_freezing]

India's infrastructure problems will be solved by China. By the end of this decade, China will become the world's biggest international construction outsourcer. It will be solving India's transportation bottlenecks just like it is solving India's communications bottlenecks (mobile & internet) now. The question is if the Indian boom will continue considering the upcoming world financial crisis which I believe will cause protectionism in the developed countries.


China won't need to wait that long because by 2020, labor intensive industries will have already begun moving out of China while its population is still increasing. Looking at the GDP per capita and distance to markets, I'd say the following countries are most likely to pick up these labor intensive industries...

• Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Philippines
• India, Pakistan
• Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala

Although I think India will pick up a sizable chunk of this, I doubt it will be anywhere near the scale that some are predicting. When the WTO textiles agreement eliminated quotas in 2005, China and India were expected to grab the lions share of the textile industry. This did happen in China's case but not India's. The reasons are varied but the main one is that China's infrastructure advantage gave it a competitive advantage. In relation to other countries, given equal infrastructure, India has no advantage other than wages, and a transportation cost advantage to European markets.

If I were to take a guess, I would say China is planning on transferring a large proportion of it's labor intensive industries to the inland Chinese provinces Guizhou and Sichuan where wages are still very competitive with India. Their problem is transportation distance to the European market. This disadvantage can be largely mitigated if China could transport its goods directly from the Bay of Bengal instead of from the South China Sea. This is where China's treaties and construction of ports in Myanmar and Bangladesh could come in very handy.

Labor costs in Sichuan are 2.5x that of India: GDP/capita of 2500 USD vs. 1100. There is no comparison. Sichuan does not need labor intensive industries; it has capital intensive industries already.

Domestically, in terms of famous companies it has factories and RD centers for Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics, Center for Aerodynamics Research, Jiuzhou Electronics, Changcheng Steel, AVIC, Lenovo, world's 3rd largest foundry SMIC, and the 10 billion USD worth Changhong Electronics, manufacturer of everything from TVs to missile guidance. It is also has numerous projects in coal liquefaction, rare metals smelting, gas extraction and hydropower.

Foreign investors include Intel, IBM, Sony, Erricson, Siemens, Canon and Microsoft. Intel has already invested 225 million USD in creating a new testing center for its chips.

Business-Companies
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu#Economy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sichuan

How can you possibly compare Sichuan with India?

 

[marshall]

I am confusing about you want to tell.
IQ of course doesn't lead you to success, but a higher average IQ for a population of 1.3 billion is definitely a big advantage.

I was pointing out that IQ tests are not singular indicators of intelligence, which is what I think some people were suggesting. Mozart was considered a musical genius but I doubt he would be considered a genius in anything else. Does this mean his IQ was 150 or 100? See what I mean? As long as IQ tests remain as immature as they stand today, they are nothing more than mental masturbation.

 

[marshall]

Labor costs in Sichuan are 2.5x that of India: GDP/capita of 2500 USD vs. 1100. There is no comparison. Sichuan does not need labor intensive industries; it has capital intensive industries already.

Domestically, in terms of famous companies it has factories and RD centers for Chinese Academy of Engineering Physics, Center for Aerodynamics Research, Jiuzhou Electronics, Changcheng Steel, AVIC, Lenovo, world's 3rd largest foundry SMIC, and the 10 billion USD worth Changhong Electronics, manufacturer of everything from TVs to missile guidance. It is also has numerous projects in coal liquefaction, rare metals smelting, gas extraction and hydropower.
.
How can you possibly compare Sichuan with India?

I'm not comparing India to any Chinese province. However, I incorrectly said "where wages are still very competitive with India". After some research, I was surprised how poor India actually is considering all the positive news about it. Shocking actually considering how much India invests in its military. Even Guizhou is richer than the richest Indian state!

Anyways, this is a question of what is the most cost effective way to maintain export competitiveness. Consider that Guangdong retains its labor intensive industries even though it's one of the richest provinces yet its labor intensive exports are still competitive. I should have used Yunnan and Guizhou though instead of Sichuan as the labor intensive industry provinces.

 

[below_freezing]

Too far away from the coast. Fujian, Hainan, Guangxi are all better candidates.

 

[marshall]

Too far away from the coast. Fujian, Hainan, Guangxi are all better candidates.

Fujian, Hainan and Guangxi are far too wealthy already to remain competitive with other foreign locations for more than a few years. Besides, the context was concerning exports to European markets, which have more expensive transportation costs by sea due to their further distance and requirement to ship around the Malacca Strait. To circumvent the Malacca Strait and reduce shipping costs, shipping could be from Chittagong, Bangladesh or Kyaukpyu, Myanmar where China currently has treaties for ports they are building. To make this viable, Chinese goods could not be too far away or it would negate the savings in shipping. The provinces Guizhou and Yunnan fit this bill perfectly. Why?

• Guizhou+Yunnan are among poorest provinces in China
• Guizhou+Yunnan are geographically close to these ports
• would alleviate poverty in these inland provinces

This is a perfect way to help these laggards close the provincial income gap.

 

[Speeder 2]

I was pointing out that IQ tests are not singular indicators of intelligence, which is what I think some people were suggesting.

Of course IQ is not the singular indicator of intelligence , because there is almost no sigular indicator of anything you can name of, strictly speaking.

There are many ways, for example, to measure one's spriting capability, i.e., 50m, 60m, 100m, 200m, ... even Long Jump indrectly indicates one's general accelarating capability in a short distance. One doesn't need to test ALL of the indicatos to know it. If Usain Bolt runs a world-record 100m, you can bet your bottom silver that he is not a pushup in other sprinting -related indicators such as 60m and 200m.


IQ is the BEST indicator of intelligence just like 100m time is for one's spritng speed, because it is statistically highly valid. Go read The g Factor ( A. Jensen 1988) and the Bell Curve (C. Murrey, 1994) once for God sake.

Mozart was considered a musical genius but I doubt he would be considered a genius in anything else. Does this mean his IQ was 150 or 100?

But who are you to doubt?

And with what concrete and statistically valid evidence/s you doubt?

Whether he had 150 IQ or 160 IQ is not important, the key here is that Mozart is a high IQ individual, not a low IQ one. Case proven and closed.

Now if you have a concrete proof that Mozart's IQ, or any world renouned scientist, artist, doctor, or engineer's IQ at any point in history for that matter, is below average or even retarded, then you have a case. If you don't, you are telling Bu$$crap.

See what I mean ?

No, sorry. What you mean?

As long as IQ tests remain as immature as they stand today, they are nothing more than mental masturbation.

Who told you it's "immature"? Your own IQ told you that?

IQ is a highly mature scientific concept which has been proven statistically by generations of scientists of worldwide scientific communities in more than a dozen different science disciplines and endeavours, across time.

Denying scientific concepts such as IQ is nothing more than mental masturbation of PC lefty brigates and some low IQs themselves out of either altruism or self-promoting retarded lies.

 

[marshall]

Whether he had 150 IQ or 160 IQ is not important, the key here is that Mozart is a high IQ individual, not a low IQ one. Case proven and closed

Not that I doubt Mozart was intelligent, but who says Mozart had a high measured IQ? You're equating intelligence with IQ score and using questionable statistical data to back up what every reputable scientist knows is largely subjective according to the whim of the test maker, the ratio of verbal vs. visiospatial, cultural, etc. Case proven and closed, by who? IQ tests didn't even exist at the time of Mozart. Trolling case proven and closed.

Now if you have a concrete proof that Mozart's IQ, or any world renouned scientist, artist, doctor, or engineer's IQ at any point in history for that matter, is below average or even retarded, then you have a case. If you don't, you are telling Bu$$crap.

Again you are equating intelligence with IQ tests. Nobody is saying scientists can be retards...sheesh.... Am I talking to a child?

Who told you it's "immature"? Your own IQ told you that?
.
IQ is a highly mature scientific concept which has been proven statistically by generations of scientists of worldwide scientific communities in more than a dozen different science disciplines and endeavours, across time.

Denying scientific concepts such as IQ is nothing more than mental masturbation of PC lefty brigates and some low IQs themselves out of either altruism or self-promoting retarded lies.

In the late 19th-early 20th century, Italian immigrants landing in the USA underwent IQ testing and on average were rated as dull and satisfactory for menial labor with their low 80s IQs. Today, Italy is listed with an IQ of 102 which is the highest in Europe. The same phenomenon of wildly fluctuating IQ scores within the same ethnic and cultural groups has been ongoing for decades. The Flynn Effect was created to try and explain this phenomenon but it doesn't explain it all. Why can no theory explain what should seemingly be a mostly genetically inborn ability evolved through eons? The answer is very obvious. It's because IQ tests are so subjective that they can almost be considered pseudo science. Do I really have to waste time explaining this logically to somebody resorting to personal attacks so easily?

 

[Aramsogo]

india produces 0.4 million engineers every years...
most of them are computer engineer......
so u can estimate rest of the figures

The problem is Indian Universities are horrible. They can't retain any good professors and pay them decent wages. No Indian University is considered Tier 1 (Top 20) in any global university ranking.

In some rankings, the best Indian university is ranked in the Top 200-range. In America, we hear all this hype about how great and prestigeous the Indian Institute of Technology is, but no IIT cracks the top 30 in any international college ranking. You hear how great IIT is in Computer Science, but they get crushed at the International Computer Programming competitions. IIT Computer Science is not even Top 20. Perception and reality is very distant.

I think India Inc. will turn out to be just another Enron "Asset-Light" Information Economy, "World of Ideas" Disaster. All hype and no substance, ready to crash and burn just like Enron. This is just my opinion based off all the non-sense management consultants like to spew.

 

[prototype]

As someone familiar with India can you explain how a younger demographics in the next say 20 years is going to be beneficial to India? There are so many roadblocks in the way

Hopefully yes,India is entering its demographic window and seems it holds good for us in the future.

About the below points it seems u made up ur mind with some precarious presumption's

1. Infrastructure - The current infrastructure in India is already strained and will continue to be so especially with more and more users from the population boom.

Now this is what i was talking about,Indian infra is strained,and it will continue so,how did u made up ur mind that it will continue so.

India's 12th 5 yr plan had its focus itself on infra,where they plan to spend around $ 1 trilion itself on infra,given this is almost near to India's current GDP,thats a big amout,money will be raised through PPP,now u must be thinking how come I believe this Utopian promises of Indian govt(which acc to many Chinese here is a highly authoritarian tyrannical dictatorship).

I believe it due to the improvements happened as they promised in the current 5 yr plan,i do not live in a big city of India(see the left side).But tremendous improvements happened in the last 2 3 yrs,especially in the field of public transportation and roads.

Acc to a scheme Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna most of the Indian villages with population of 1000 and more are now connected with urban center's and they had fairly succeed in it.

Have a look at the number of Indian cities installing mass transist railway systems.

We had a highly timid Highway development programe currently going on known as Golden Quad,though of lately it had started to pay the prize,GQ is finally attained 99.4 completion rate.

India is highly focused in nuclear power production,and after the nuclear deal,it seems all new direction we had got for this programme.

India had a currently installed capacity of India is 6000 MW,9 more reactors r currently under construction,India aspires to take this upto 64000 MW's capacity.

2. Food - Food is already an issue around the world, and increasing floods don't make the issue any better.

If food is already an issue for world,then how come it act only a barrier for India,u have to think again on that,in this case the world suffers,not just India.

3. Job Security - It appears everyone seems to assume once China's population goes down the manufacturing base will immediately shift to India. Who is going to shift the jobs there? The Americans and Europeans have already been tapped dry of cash with majority of the worlds funds being held by China, will China shift the manufacturing jobs to India and cause instability in her own country not sure about that.

Many believe America and Europe r already cash strapped(lets not leave it for future)their's markets attaining major saturation,still heavy FDI's r flowing into China,from were do u think,their govts r cash strapped does not mean their companies r also cash strapped,they will move into new sectors and markets to make investments,if the case is present for China,this will hold true for any other country.

If India population goes unchecked and fails to deliver on any of the above points its just a recipe for anarchy. Lets bear in mind that resources around the world are stretched beyond belief and Oil prices are settling at 90 - 100 dollars on average these days, it will be a question if any country can even build an infrastructure with oil at 200 per barrel in the future.

this is the same rhetoric some uneducated Chinese make onthis forum as a barrier for India without having proper reality cheak and homework,I never expected it from u.First of all India growth rate is not going unchecked,if by growth check u mean force sterilization's and one child policies,sorry we cannot amend it,by every passing yr the growth rate here is falling,if u have any source which claims otherwise bring it forward.I can give u a link from UNICEF.

http://http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/india_statistics.html#68

The problem is Indian Universities are horrible. They can't retain any good professors and pay them decent wages. No Indian University is considered Tier 1 (Top 20) in any global university ranking.

In some rankings, the best Indian university is ranked in the Top 200-range. In America, we hear all this hype about how great and prestigeous the Indian Institute of Technology is, but no IIT cracks the top 30 in any international college ranking. You hear how great IIT is in Computer Science, but they get crushed at the International Computer Programming competitions. IIT Computer Science is not even Top 20. Perception and reality is very distant.

I think India Inc. will turn out to be just another Enron "Asset-Light" Information Economy, "World of Ideas" Disaster. All hype and no substance, ready to crash and burn just like Enron. This is just my opinion based off all the non-sense management consultants like to spew.

Its not that IIT's r not in the range of global elite universities or they lack the teaching capacity as compared to others.IIT's lag in certain parameters when this ranking's r calculated and this affect IIT's overall performance in the ranking's.

For example research output and Social Science Citation Index in which IIT's heavily lag,in rest of the case I agree with u.

I wil end it on a note based on a reply to ur Enron classification.

India and India inc just like China is witnessing its biggest growth of a century,though not as big as China,it does not make our growth any small,our companies r spreading wings globally,and our economy and companies crashing down due to the highly imaginative development work of many neuron's around the world is just an unfulfilled dream.

This is the same country which was near to bankruptcy in 1992,18 yrs onward look at us,our fortunes r changed now,and some people talking about suicidal inflation rates hardly know that is no more suicidal,and i have an advice to those people when deducting inflation from our growth rate,use our original growth rate,dont cheery pick nominal rates.

 

[MINK]

Unlike China India's currency isn't artificially undervalued. The pile 2 trillion dollar foreign currency reserve that china is currently sitting on is result of 70% undervalued yuan. China's huge trade surplus will turn into a trade deficit if they play on level playing field. Maybe we're developing slowly but at least no one can accuse India for cheating. WE PLAY FAIR.