INDIA HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF OVERTAKING CHINA

[Speeder 2]

I am a bit worry about Indian's uncontrolled population growth and an inflation more than it could cope with. Without tight control of both of these, GDP growth is just a figure without real improving of ordinary citizen's living standard. Food, education, medical service, housing, power supply, water supply, transportation etc will be big problems for the Government. Worse, with improvement in medical service, more babies servive and people live longer. These will increase the birth rate, reduce the death rate and thus increase the population grow rate further. I think India, as a responsible country, should due with this problem seriously.

I think India, as a responsible country, should due .....

are you trying to imagine the sun rises from the west?

 

[Speeder 2]

Singapore is like a labor camp with slightly better conditions. it is just another labor camp, nothing more.

So far to me, this "Jingdong" from "Siggapore" obviously is an Indian.

 

[prototype]

So far to me, this "Jingdong" from "Siggapore" obviously is an Indian.

How come,because he stinged ur a$$

What an obsession with India.

Well the frog in the well(or China) always think he is a good singer.

Hardly it knows how the world perceive the well.

 

[below_freezing]

South Korea and Taiwan are 1 small step below Japan technologically but so is everybody else except for USA, Germany, UK and to a lesser extent France. I think the rules are different for China because it is under technology control sanctions that requires it to gain technology independence. UK will never need to fear sanctions of any kind because it is a key part of the Anglo-American world order, aka "Western" alliance.

The goal of industrialization is to use machines to build machines that can make more machines, and to build the full spectrum of manufactured goods. Taiwan can do this part of the first but not even close to the second. South Korea can do neither. But they don't need to, they have Japan and USA getting their backs.

 

[marshall]

The goal of industrialization is to use machines to build machines that can make more machines, and to build the full spectrum of manufactured goods. Taiwan can do this part of the first but not even close to the second. South Korea can do neither. But they don't need to, they have Japan and USA getting their backs.

I never disputed that Taiwan does not have full spectrum industrial capacity. My point was that Taiwan and South Korea are not technologically weak as you were insinuating simply because they can't do everything Japan can. Japan sits at the top of the technology food chain along with Germany, UK and lesser extent France, just below the USA, with everybody else below them. Taiwan and South Korea are as I said only 1 step below this which is still quite advanced.

Industrialization is not about making machines to make more machines. It is about increasing efficiency to better, faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer, etc. A side effect of industrialization is to gain strategic advantages over other countries. This is why countries of the Anglo-Saxon world order, aka. so-called "Western" alliance, use international bodies they created and control such as the IMF, World Bank, WTO to enforce international rules that further or perpetuate their entrenched power. China is a full spectrum industrialized country whose scientific capacity will eventually match that of the combined capabilities of the existing order. This is why it doesn't matter whether China is communist, socialist, capitalist, democratic, fascist, whatever, it will always be demonized as some form of evil dictatorship because it is a threat. Haven't you ever wondered why so many well educated Mainland Chinese call "Westerners" barbarians even now?

 

[CardSharp]

A thread created where articles clearly states India's economic growth will exceed that of China's by 2020 but not its Nominal GDP ..but most of you don't care..what is the substance of the article itself..but start commenting on header itself and then blame Indians for talking loud !! Heights hunh!!

I read it. It's not the statement itself that is grounds for ridicule, the reasons they give are. I've said myself that India's growth rate will exceed China's eventually but the reasoning behind this article is fing retarded. Logical fallacies up the wazoo.

a) Japan's growth decelerated in the 90's.
b) Japan's economy was and is export orientated
c) China's economy is export orientated

Therefore China's economy must decelerated.

Whatever if you believe the reasoning behind the article, that's your prerogative.

 

[Aramsogo]

This is an argument I heard from an Indian energy analyst on the internet:

It's all about Energy and Access to it. The Country that has the most energy (and can afford it) will have the highest GDP growth. That country will be the ultimate winner of the GDP race. Computer, Cars, Steel, 160 Story Mega Towers, Fertilizers -> Everything Requires Oil, Gas and Electricity. Period. You could haved predicted the winner of WWII just by looking at the energy consumption of US vs. Germany and US vs. Japan.

We've hit Peak Oil. One argument we always here is whether China can get rich before it gets old. Another equally important argument is can India get rich before energy gets too expensive. Every country on earth is competing for this same energy and it costs the same no matter if you're a rich or a poor country.

GDP, PPP, GDP/capita, PPP/capita are all less important than Megawatt Hours and Barrels of Oil. Just look at North Korea vs. South Korea and their energy comsumption. The Chinese think tanks knows this fact. That's why the Chinese have been franticly looking for energy all over the world and securing it. Using energy consumption as a measures, India is way, way behind China. So it has a lot to catch up. As it keeps buying, it will only get more expensive (unless you've locked in the price by owning the oil & gas fields or coal mine). Does India's think tank know this?? I don't think so. It's happily importing useless jet fighters when it should be competing head to head with China for energy all over the world. India can buy 2,000 of the latest European, Russian and American 5th-gen fighters, it won't matter if you can't afford to power them.

Meanwhile, I read articles in the Indian press about "What Kind of Super Power will India be in 2025 ?" I'm not making this up. Incredible.

 

[CardSharp]

This is an argument I heard from an Indian energy analyst on the internet:

It's all about Energy and Access to it. The Country that has the most energy (and can afford it) will have the highest GDP growth. That country will be the ultimate winner of the GDP race. Computer, Cars, Steel, 160 Story Mega Towers, Fertilizers -> Everything Requires Oil, Gas and Electricity. Period. You could haved predicted the winner of WWII just by looking at the energy consumption of US vs. Germany and US vs. Japan.

We've hit Peak Oil. One argument we always here is whether China can get rich before it gets old. Another equally important argument is can India get rich before energy gets too expensive. Every country on earth is competing for this same energy and it costs the same no matter if you're a rich or a poor country.

GDP, PPP, GDP/capita, PPP/capita are all less important than Megawatt Hours and Barrels of Oil. Just look at North Korea vs. South Korea and their energy comsumption. The Chinese think tanks knows this fact. That's why the Chinese have been franticly looking for energy all over the world and securing it. Using energy consumption as a measures, India is way, way behind China. So it has a lot to catch up. As it keeps buying, it will only get more expensive (unless you've locked in the price by owning the oil & gas fields or coal mine). Does India's think tank know this?? I don't think so. It's happily importing useless jet fighters when it should be competing head to head with China for energy all over the world. India can buy 2,000 of the latest European, Russian and American 5th-gen fighters, it won't matter if you can't afford to power them.

Meanwhile, I read articles in the Indian press about "What Kind of Super Power will India be in 2025 ?" I'm not making this up. Incredible.

Another reason to see uncontrolled demographic growth as a liability.

 

[below_freezing]

Even if China doesn't get old before we get rich, our high savings rate will make our situation much different from the US's, where people borrow when they're young and keep borrowing when they're old and even borrow when they're dead.

 

[ares]

I read it. It's not the statement itself that is grounds for ridicule, the reasons they give are. I've said myself that India's growth rate will exceed China's eventually but the reasoning behind this article is fing retarded. Logical fallacies up the wazoo.

a) Japan's growth decelerated in the 90's.
b) Japan's economy was and is export orientated
c) China's economy is export orientated

Therefore China's economy must decelerated.

Whatever if you believe the reasoning behind the article, that's your prerogative.

You just cherry picking now, how about this part..

China will start ageing and suffering from a declining workforce, and will be forced to revalue its currency.

So its growth will decelerate, just as Japan decelerated in the 1990s after looking unstoppable in the 1980s. Having become the world's second-biggest economy, China's export-oriented model will erode sharply

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

You just cherry picking now, how about this part..

That is under the assumption that the one-child policy will remain unchanged over the next few decades.

Demographic changes take decades to come into effect.

If it becomes clear that the demographic trends are negative, then it will be very easy to modify, or even to completely scrap the one-Child policy.

 

[scuthan]

Actually the high fertility rate of India and sub-Sahara Africa is a sign of under-development, once a larger percentage of their population begin to enjoy the fruit of modern human civilization, the brith rate will drop. actually the fertility rate of india decreased to a fair degree because more population attempted to live like human.

 

[CardSharp]

You just cherry picking now, how about this part..

If you really don't understand logical fallacies, I can recommend books.

 

[ares]

That is under the assumption that the one-child policy will remain unchanged over the next few decades.

Demographic changes take decades to come into effect.

If it becomes clear that the demographic trends are negative, then it will be very easy to modify, or even to completely scrap the one-Child policy.

So when is CCP planing to reverse its One child policy ?
If Chinese people had their way..this policy would never been introduced..but unfortunately in China public opinion has never mattered much.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

So when is CCP planing to reverse its One child policy ?
If Chinese people had their way..this policy would never been introduced..but unfortunately in China public opinion has never mattered much.

Public opinion matters a lot in China.

Do you think it is just a coincidence that the Chinese government has the highest approval ratings of any government in the entire world?

Chinese satisfied with government - Washington Times

Secondly, the CPC has an overwhelming interest in maintaining economic growth. Demographics are of course a factor in economic growth.