India-France Rafale Deal Stalled

[Cheetah786]

Is it really so hard to DIGEST for you???

The $12 billion tag was only the initial ESTIMATES by the GOI/MOD when the Tender of the MMRCA was issued around 2008, this price tag was based on the average price offered by the contenders. But that IAF has now gone for the second most priced ac in the MMRCA contenders (after ET). Just the fly away cost of F3 standards of Rafale which will be inducted into IAF will be more than 100 million dollars a PIECE. So for 126, it roughly comes out to be upwards of $12.6 billions in just ac. Than IAF has sure plans of inducting 60+ more, again $ 6+ billion in just ac cost, than there are plans for a naval MMRCA, in which Rafale-M will be the lead contender (b'coz it will already be inducted in IAF), if selected, IN will go for 60-70 of these, again $6+ billion JUST for ac itself.

Than there comes training cost, logistics, armament, TOT, MLU, 35+ years of attachment with one of the fastest growing economy, etc., etc., etc.........

We are Seriously talking about CLOSE to $30 billions at stake here (if we include the IN order as well).

You are right, French will be called the BIGGEST FOOLS if they don't welcome this deal with open arms.

Having plans and signing a actual contract are two different things.

 

[Abingdonboy]

As for the Rafale being relevant in 2045, I would have to disagree as countries like Pakistan and maybe even BD would start to be equipped with 5th generation fighters like J-31 in the next decade which will have an advantage over Rafale due to their stealth design. Not saying that Rafale won't have a chance against fighters like J-31 but it would be at a massive disadvantage.

Pure hogwash, with successive upgrades the Rafale can easily remain relevant for the foreseeable future. 2045 is pushing it a bit, maybe 2035-40 is more realistic. Wrt BD and Pakistan getting the J-31, I can't see how either nation can afford such a platform, BD spends,what, $1 BN USD in defence a year, what does this leave for capital acquisitions for the BAF after salaries, maintenance and miscellaneous costs and then split between the 3 armed forces wings? Not much I'd assume $20-30 MN for the BAF a year possibly. Pakistan is in a similarly precarious financial situation, yes were are talking about the future but even 15-20 years from now both nations will be lucky to see defence budgets above $12-15 BN a year and this isn't a budget that leaves much to operate 5th gen fighters in any meaningful numbers.


The actual combat performance of the J-31 is debatable to say the least and I think the Chinese interest in Su-35s says all you need to know about their efforts to devlop their own fully-fledged 5th gen fighters, doesn't it? But this is a discussion for another place.



All things considered I don't see any reason why the IAF should be concerned about their Rafales' relative lethality in the region. The Rafale when backed up by the IAF's state of the art AWACS and and other high-tech fighters can more than hold their own for the decades to come.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Having plans and signing a actual contract are two different things.

Wow, could you wound more insecure and jealous?!!

 

[Cheetah786]

Pure hogwash, with successive upgrades the Rafale can easily remain relevant for the foreseeable future. 2045 is pushing it a bit, maybe 2035-40 is more realistic. Wrt BD and Pakistan getting the J-31, I can't see how either nation can afford such a platform, BD spends,what, $1 BN USD in defence a year, what does this leave for capital acquisitions for the BAF after salaries, maintenance and miscellaneous costs and then split between the 3 armed forces wings? Not much I'd assume $20-30 MN for the BAF a year possibly. Pakistan is in a similarly precarious financial situation, yes were are talking about the future but even 15-20 years from now both nations will be lucky to see defence budgets above $12-15 BN a year and this isn't a budget that leaves much to operate 5th gen fighters in any meaningful numbers.


The actual combat performance of the J-31 is debatable to say the least and I think the Chinese interest in Su-35s says all you need to know about their efforts to devlop their own fully-fledged 5th gen fighters, doesn't it? But this is a discussion for another place.



All things considered I don't see any reason why the IAF should be concerned about their Rafales' relative lethality in the region. The Rafale when backed up by the IAF's state of the art AWACS and and other high-tech fighters can more than hold their own for the decades to come.

you as an Indian for obvious reasons cant see how pakistan can get more advance birds don't mean it will not happen . Our economy has grown and continues to grow by 2030 it will be a lot bigger then it is today.

Indian going back and forth on the deal means by 2030 even Rafael will think twice before offering any upgrades or they will simply negotiate on their own terms.

 

[Cheetah786]

Wow, could you wound more insecure and jealous?!!

jealous really,lets see deal was announced when wright brothers started working on the flying machine(exaggerating to make a point).

India negotiate with France to get the best of the best and basically agree to all terms put forward by France for the sale.
Thinking french are stupid or desperate indians come back and say oh by the way we know what we agreed upon but we change our mind and now this is what we want.

Plus the the carrots being dangled as negotiation ploy'' if you do this or throw in this to complete the deal.

Feel free to tell me i am wrong and thats not the case and spare me the jealousy bull crap typical Indian b.s .

 

[Storm Force]

CHEETAH.

WHAT WOULD YOU KNOW ABOUT $20 BILLION mega fighter deal how its signed and how its TOT is negotiated..

yes this is alot of envy and jealousy BECAUSE $20 BILLION DEALS are only possible by likes of INDIA CHINA RUSSIA & SAUDI ETC. most countries sit on chiken feed budgtes

 

[UKBengali]

Pure hogwash, with successive upgrades the Rafale can easily remain relevant for the foreseeable future. 2045 is pushing it a bit, maybe 2035-40 is more realistic. Wrt BD and Pakistan getting the J-31, I can't see how either nation can afford such a platform, BD spends,what, $1 BN USD in defence a year, what does this leave for capital acquisitions for the BAF after salaries, maintenance and miscellaneous costs and then split between the 3 armed forces wings? Not much I'd assume $20-30 MN for the BAF a year possibly. Pakistan is in a similarly precarious financial situation, yes were are talking about the future but even 15-20 years from now both nations will be lucky to see defence budgets above $12-15 BN a year and this isn't a budget that leaves much to operate 5th gen fighters in any meaningful numbers.


The actual combat performance of the J-31 is debatable to say the least and I think the Chinese interest in Su-35s says all you need to know about their efforts to devlop their own fully-fledged 5th gen fighters, doesn't it? But this is a discussion for another place.



All things considered I don't see any reason why the IAF should be concerned about their Rafales' relative lethality in the region. The Rafale when backed up by the IAF's state of the art AWACS and and other high-tech fighters can more than hold their own for the decades to come.

To give you an example of how much money BD has for defence acquisitions let us take a few examples during this current Awami government in the last 4/5 years:

The Navy has put in an order for 4 Type-056 Corvettes from China and that will be around 400 million dollars.
The air-force ordered 16 F-7BGI's from China and they cost around 150 million dollars.
There are also very credible reports of a billion dollar purchase from Russian for anything up to 24 YAK-130 fighters and some other unknown equipment.
44 MBT-2000 tanks from China have also been ordered for 200 million dollars.

This comes to nearly 2 billion dollars in just 4/5 years and there are other purchases that I have not listed. It seems that BD is spending at least half a billion dollars a year in importing arms.

The actual BD defence budget in this financial year was 1.6 billion dollars but this does not include imports of equipment which are paid for separately by the government.

Fighters like J-31 are targeted to come in at 70-80 million dollars and are being specifically being built for export. By 2025 BD could be easily afford to be buying several squadrons of this type if China will sell.

No matter how much Rafale gets upgraded nothing can be done about it's non-stealth airframe. It will have to suffer BVR attacks from 5th generation aircraft before it can fire back and that will never change.

As for the comment about J-31, that would mainly be an engine issue as the Chinese have already proved very adept at airframe and radars. They will get there, if not this decade then next.

 

[Azazel]

To give you an example of how much money BD has for defence acquisitions let us take a few examples during this current Awami government in the last 4/5 years:

The Navy has put in an order for 4 Type-056 Corvettes from China and that will be around 400 million dollars.
The air-force ordered 16 F-7BGI's from China and they cost around 150 million dollars.
There are also very credible reports of a billion dollar purchase from Russian for anything up to 24 YAK-130 fighters and some other unknown equipment.
44 MBT-2000 tanks from China have also been ordered for 200 million dollars.

This comes to nearly 2 billion dollars in just 4/5 years and there are other purchases that I have not listed. It seems that BD is spending at least half a billion dollars a year in importing arms.

The actual BD defence budget in this financial year was 1.6 billion dollars but this does not include imports of equipment which are paid for separately by the government.

Fighters like J-31 are targeted to come in at 70-80 million dollars and are being specifically being built for export. By 2025 BD could be easily afford to be buying several squadrons of this type if China will sell.

No matter how much Rafale gets upgraded nothing can be done about it's non-stealth airframe. It will have to suffer BVR attacks from 5th generation aircraft before it can fire back and that will never change.

As for the comment about J-31, that would mainly be an engine issue as the Chinese have already proved very adept at airframe and radars. They will get there, if not this decade then next.

At least let J-31 enter active service in China,then start all the day dreaming.

 

[Abingdonboy]

you as an Indian for obvious reasons cant see how pakistan can get more advance birds don't mean it will not happen . Our economy has grown and continues to grow by 2030 it will be a lot bigger then it is today.

Like I said both the actual capability of the J-20 and -31 is highly debatable and right now not looking great but that is neither here nor there. The chances of the PAF getting such birds before,say, 2035-40 is doubtful IMHO. BD I can believe because by all accounts they will surpass Pakistan's GDP in the not to distant future.

Indian going back and forth on the deal means by 2030 even Rafael will think twice before offering any upgrades or they will simply negotiate on their own terms.

What utter, utter nonsense. How can you call negotiating as hard as possible and pushing for the best deal that suits your country "going back and forth"? Do you have any idea of the complexity and intricate nature if such a deal? Clearly you have zero idea judging by your remarks. Many of the hurdles have already been cleared, this is just the latest and I'm sure all be addressed very soon.


Once again you are just coming across bitter,jealous and insecure.

 

[janon]

To give you an example of how much money BD has for defence acquisitions let us take a few examples during this current Awami government in the last 4/5 years:

The Navy has put in an order for 4 Type-056 Corvettes from China and that will be around 400 million dollars.
The air-force ordered 16 F-7BGI's from China and they cost around 150 million dollars.
There are also very credible reports of a billion dollar purchase from Russian for anything up to 24 YAK-130 fighters and some other unknown equipment.
44 MBT-2000 tanks from China have also been ordered for 200 million dollars.

This comes to nearly 2 billion dollars in just 4/5 years and there are other purchases that I have not listed. It seems that BD is spending at least half a billion dollars a year in importing arms.

The actual BD defence budget in this financial year was 1.6 billion dollars but this does not include imports of equipment which are paid for separately by the government.

Fighters like J-31 are targeted to come in at 70-80 million dollars and are being specifically being built for export. By 2025 BD could be easily afford to be buying several squadrons of this type if China will sell.

No matter how much Rafale gets upgraded nothing can be done about it's non-stealth airframe. It will have to suffer BVR attacks from 5th generation aircraft before it can fire back and that will never change.

As for the comment about J-31, that would mainly be an engine issue as the Chinese have already proved very adept at airframe and radars. They will get there, if not this decade then next.

No country other than the US is going to have a fully 5th gen airforce. All other countries will have a mix of different platforms. Which is why Rafale will be relevant and important at least till 2035, possibly longer.

Why is China purchasing Su-35 if 4th gen fighters wont be important in future? Why is China still churning out so many 4th gen platforms right now, instead of concentrating on the J-20 and J-31? Because the entire Chinese air force will not be composed of fifth gen fighers alone, there will be hundreds of 4th gen ones supplementing them. Just because 5th gen fighters have been developed doesn't mean that 4th gen ones will be obsolete.

Just because 4th gen fighters have been around for some time doesn't mean that 3rd gen ones are all useless. The IAF and PLAAF both still fly hundreds of 3rd gen planes TODAY, despite having operated 4th gen fighters for decades.

 

[Abingdonboy]

jealous really,lets see deal was announced when wright brothers started working on the flying machine(exaggerating to make a point).

India negotiate with France to get the best of the best and basically agree to all terms put forward by France for the sale.
Thinking french are stupid or desperate indians come back and say oh by the way we know what we agreed upon but we change our mind and now this is what we want.

Plus the the carrots being dangled as negotiation ploy'' if you do this or throw in this to complete the deal.

Feel free to tell me i am wrong and thats not the case and spare me the jealousy bull crap typical Indian b.s .

Lol -you are wrong.

The MMRCA deal in its current form was only initiated in 2008. 5 years later the deal is weeks away from being signed, for a competion with the complexity and scale of the MMRCA 5 years is a record most would fail to match and this achievement has not gone unnoticed and has been praised by many commentators,bidders and officials.


No matter what nosense you and your friends chose to spew it won't detract from the established facts and opinions. You are hardly conducting yourself in a fair and balanced manner and it is clear what your agenda is.

 

[Koovie]

To give you an example of how much money BD has for defence acquisitions let us take a few examples during this current Awami government in the last 4/5 years:

The Navy has put in an order for 4 Type-056 Corvettes from China and that will be around 400 million dollars.
The air-force ordered 16 F-7BGI's from China and they cost around 150 million dollars.
There are also very credible reports of a billion dollar purchase from Russian for anything up to 24 YAK-130 fighters and some other unknown equipment.
44 MBT-2000 tanks from China have also been ordered for 200 million dollars.

This comes to nearly 2 billion dollars in just 4/5 years and there are other purchases that I have not listed. It seems that BD is spending at least half a billion dollars a year in importing arms.

The actual BD defence budget in this financial year was 1.6 billion dollars but this does not include imports of equipment which are paid for separately by the government.

Fighters like J-31 are targeted to come in at 70-80 million dollars and are being specifically being built for export. By 2025 BD could be easily afford to be buying several squadrons of this type if China will sell.

No matter how much Rafale gets upgraded nothing can be done about it's non-stealth airframe. It will have to suffer BVR attacks from 5th generation aircraft before it can fire back and that will never change.

As for the comment about J-31, that would mainly be an engine issue as the Chinese have already proved very adept at airframe and radars. They will get there, if not this decade then next.

There are already a number of ways to defeat stealth technology and the Europeans who dont put much emphasis on stealth are working hard to find more methods to overcome stealth features, including France.

Concerning BD, there is so much more to do to have an effective AF rather than having 2 dozen stealth aircraft (which will be downgraded export models anyways, or do you think that the Chinese will happily hand over their secret codes etc to the BAF for 200 million ??)! Infrastructure, AWACS support, training, doctrines, network centric warfare, cyberwarfare are at least as important as having more stealth.

 

[selvan33]

As for the Rafale being relevant in 2045, I would have to disagree as countries like Pakistan and maybe even BD would start to be equipped with 5th generation fighters like J-31 in the next decade which will have an advantage over Rafale due to their stealth design. Not saying that Rafale won't have a chance against fighters like J-31 but it would be at a massive disadvantage.

No need to worry. stealth is not going to be a big problem in future. a powerful radar especially a passive can render stealth planes obsolete.

 

[UKBengali]

No country other than the US is going to have a fully 5th gen airforce. All other countries will have a mix of different platforms. Which is why Rafale will be relevant and important at least till 2035, possibly longer.

Why is China purchasing Su-35 if 4th gen fighters wont be important in future? Why is China still churning out so many 4th gen platforms right now, instead of concentrating on the J-20 and J-31? Because the entire Chinese air force will not be composed of fifth gen fighers alone, there will be hundreds of 4th gen ones supplementing them. Just because 5th gen fighters have been developed doesn't mean that 4th gen ones will be obsolete.

Just because 4th gen fighters have been around for some time doesn't mean that 3rd gen ones are all useless. The IAF and PLAAF both still fly hundreds of 3rd gen planes TODAY, despite having operated 4th gen fighters for decades.

Did I say that the Rafale was a bad purchase for India?

India gets access to some of the best 4th generation technology and can also fill in the numbers gap in it's air force squadrons.

My point is that the Rafale would not be competitive to some aircraft that could very potentially be inducted into the air-force of neighbouring countries in the next decades.

I am sorry to say but some very reasonable Indian posters are not being objective at all about the Rafale.

Yes it is a great fighter but at the end of the day it has a massive RCS when compared to any 5th generation fighter out there currently or due to be inducted in the future.

Engines, radar and avionics can be upgraded but the airframe will pretty much stay the same bar some minor modifications.

In BVR scenarios it will always be at a disadvantage as the other fighter will get first look - first kill option on it. Again not saying that the Rafale will be always shot-down but it will have to survive the volley of AAMs coming at it before it can engage the other fighter.

 

[janon]

Did I say that the Rafale was a bad purchase for India?

India gets access to some of the best 4th generation technology and can also fill in the numbers gap in it's air force squadrons.

My point is that the Rafale would not be competitive to some aircraft that could very potentially be inducted into the air-force of neighbouring countries in the next decades.

I am sorry to say but some very reasonable Indian posters are not being objective at all about the Rafale.

Yes it is a great fighter but at the end of the day it has a massive RCS when compared to any 5th generation fighter out there currently or due to be inducted in the future.

Engines, radar and avionics can be upgraded but the airframe will pretty much stay the same bar some minor modifications.

In BVR scenarios it will always be at a disadvantage as the other fighter will get first look - first kill option on it. Again not saying that the Rafale will be always shot-down but it will have to survive the volley of AAMs coming at it before it can engage the other fighter.

But rafale will still be able to bomb ground targets, give close air support, drop laser guided bombs, drop nuclear bombs, strafe infantry and vehicle columns with cannons or rockets, and a lot more things as effectively as a 5th gen platform, while being much cheaper than a fifth gen platform. Aerial warfare is not all about air to air combat, these are multirole aircrafts that perform a lot of missions, and shooting down other aircrafts is just one of the missions. And it will still be able to fight down non stealthy fighters of the opposing air force - and the enemy will have plenty of those, unless the enemy is USA.

If your only point is that rafales cant shoot down stealth fighters in a one on one engagement, you would be right. However, it can do 99 other things, which is why Indian members here are saying that it will remain relevant for 30 years.

Also, air combat won't be that simple either. Rafales can still be part of a mixed formation with PAKFAs (for example). The 5th gen ones can fly well in front, detect incoming 5th gen fighters while rafales stay too far behind to be detected by the enemy 5th gen fighters. The radar data of the PAKFAs can be shared with rafales, which can then shoot missiles at the enemy while being behind radar range. There are a lot of tactics that will be employed to make 4th gen fighters useful in air warfare, just like there are lots of tactics employed currently to keep 3rd gen fighters potent in aerial combat.

Look at how the IAF uses MKI and mig-21s together in air combat. The mig 21s stay behind the MKI, which detects incoming fighters with its huge radar, while the mig 21 is too small to be detected by the enemy at that range. Then the MKI as well as 21s shoot BVR missiles. There are several operational tactics, it is not simply going to be a one on one engagement. So it is not what you see on paper - 5th gen, low RCS, hence they win. No, it wont be like that. A few 5th gen and a few 4th gen ones will fly together and share data.

Tactics will evolve for each type of mission, depending on the available aircrafts and their capabilities. The IAF's job will be to find innovative tactics to keep their aircrafts relevant. That's what the planners in all air forces do.