Russia's defense minister, Anatoly Serdyukov, said last year that Tajikistan and Russia would jointly use the base, but Tajikistan has never confirmed that. Russia, which already maintains a large military base for its 201st Division at Dushanbe, does not appear interested in actually using Ayni, but merely in keeping other countries from using it, said Zafar Sufiyev, editor in chief of the newspaper Ozodagon.
Meanwhile, Tajik leaders do not appear interested in allowing Russian forces to use the base. Tajikistan's president, Imomali Rahmon, recently suggested that Russia, which currently does not pay rent for the 201st base, should do so in the future. The two sides, however, agreed to put off that decision until 2014. Tajik-Russian relations have been tense of late, mainly because of Moscow's failure to support Dushanbe, either financially or diplomatically, in the construction of the Rogun Dam, which Tajikistan's government sees as vital to its future economic security. [For background see EurasiaNet's archive].
"Rahmon is not independent enough to say 'no' to Russia, and he's afraid to say 'yes' to anyone else," said Saymuddin Dustov, an analyst in Dushanbe. "So he does nothing."
There has been speculation that the United States., facing continuing uncertainty over the use of the Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan, might be interested in Ayni as a possible replacement. The Tajikistan government would allow US forces to use Ayni at the right price, said Safiyev. "If the government gets more for it than the Americans pay for Manas, they'll be interested," he said. "It's a market."
But Kenneth Gross, the US ambassador to Tajikistan, told EurasiaNet.org there are no discussions between the two countries over the use of Ayni.