In boost for 'Make in India', Dassault may manufacture Rafale fighter aircraft in India

[Abingdonboy]

All the people who think Rafale will be made in India are fools. Dassault can make 36 fighter plane in France per year without any capital investment. And people expect them to make Rafales in India for tiny order of 36 planes. Firm order of 200 planes with budget of USD 50 billion in commitment needed to set up production facility in India.

No one is talking about the 36 Rafales being made in India- they will be 100% made in France, this discussion is about orders seperate to that 36.

 

[Echo_419]

An F-35 buy for India would be very complicated- would India join the program itself? What level of parntership would it be offered/interested in?

For the numbers of future carrier fighters required MRO/service centres would have to be set up in India.

The F-35 program is a bloody mess and India would do well to steer clear of it, the French aren't looking for a 5th gen fighter for the foreseeable future which ensures the Rafale will be upgraded extensively long into the future- India will be hitching itself to the right wagon if it got involved there IMHO.


HAL will still be involved, they are easily India's most capable aviation player and will be providing sub-assemblies and components to the Dassualt-Indian partner consotrium who will be conducting all final assembly and outputting the finished product.

To be honest, the human capital exsists in India that anyone with deep enough pockets can set up any such plant in India and it will be a success (both Dassualt and Reliance have DEEP pockets). Look around to se numerous examples of success. TATA has its hands full with the C-295 production and many other deals on its plate (S-92, 787, P-8, F-18 etc) so it is right to get another giant in the aerospace game set up in India, I would have preffered L&T but Reliance are okay. Dassualt will ultimately be liable for quality of the finished product and timelines so they will ensure any company they tie up with is producing the goods.

Along with Navalized AMCA an extensively upgraded Rafael looks like a good option,btw are we developing the Naval version of AMCA 1st ?

 

[Abingdonboy]

your right on the aspect that another player does need to be introduced, but i just have doubts and they are best left with professionals. BUT im not saying Reliance should not take part but it should be something like Reliance builds sub sections along with HAL whilst Tata completes them and Dassault inspects and signs them off.

Ironically this was somewhat like the orginal MMRCA framework- HAL was to be the lead intergrator who would outsource various elements to third parties such as Reliance (they were orginally meant to build the wings of the Rafale), TATA, BEML, SAMTAL etc and Dassualt was expected to sign off on the work HAL would do. This had been a major issue and part of the reason the orginal MMRCA deal was at an impasse.

Now Dassualt has been given free reign to select the Indian partners they see fit and if they carry out the relevent due diligance and assert thar Reliance are up to the job then so be it. It is ultimately Dassualt's responisbility so they will ensure Reliance and all other partners in India are up to the task and deliver on time and on budget. I would remind you that TATA only entered this "game" (aerospace) a few years ago and themselves started with nothing so if they can do it then so can Reliance.

Along with Navalized AMCA an extensively upgraded Rafael looks like a good option,btw are we developing the Naval version of AMCA 1st ?

Indeed, a N-AMCA should be the priority and an AF variant derived from it (in contrast to the LCA's devlopment). I don't think this is, sadly, the path that is being pursued.

 

[khakhi_chaddi]

No one is talking about the 36 Rafales being made in India- they will be 100% made in France, this discussion is about orders seperate to that 36.

Even 36+36 does not make sense for making rafales in India. There needs to be one shot order of 200 planes & 50 billion dollars committment to make investment. No one makes investment based on purchase intentions.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Even 36+36 does not make sense for making rafales in India. There needs to be one shot order of 200 planes & 50 billion dollars committment to make investment. No one makes investment based on purchase intentions.

Not sure where you are getting these figures from but watch this space my friend.

 

[khakhi_chaddi]

Not sure where you are getting these figures from but watch this space my friend.

Bhai Dassault makes a profit margin of 10%. New plant will atleast cost 5 billion dollars. To recover this amount without any profit you need order of 50 billion. That too is a conservative estimate.

 

[Blue Marlin]

Ironically this was somewhat like the orginal MMRCA framework- HAL was to be the lead intergrator who would outsource various elements to third parties such as Reliance (they were orginally meant to build the wings of the Rafale), TATA, BEML, SAMTAL etc and Dassualt was expected to sign off on the work HAL would do. This had been a major issue and part of the reason the orginal MMRCA deal was at an impasse.

Now Dassualt has been given free reign to select the Indian partners they see fit and if they carry out the relevent due diligance and assert thar Reliance are up to the job then so be it. It is ultimately Dassualt's responisbility so they will ensure Reliance and all other partners in India are up to the task and deliver on time and on budget. I would remind you that TATA only entered this "game" (aerospace) a few years ago and themselves started with nothing so if they can do it then so can Reliance.

fair enough...but im still spectacle tough. but Dassault has been given the flexibility which is the most important thing.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Bhai Dassault makes a profit margin of 10%. New plant will atleast cost 5 billion dollars. To recover this amount without any profit you need order of 50 billion. That too is a conservative estimate.

Not so sure about the $5BN figure, I think $1-2BN will suffice. Reliance will be the lead intergrators but many of the sub-assemblies will be out-sourced to third party large, small and medium enterprises in India. Addtionally the 50% offset figure should cover much of this.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Not so sure about the $5BN figure, I think $1-2BN will suffice. Reliance will be the lead intergrators but many of the sub-assemblies will be out-sourced to third party large, small and medium enterprises in India. Addtionally the 50% offset figure should cover much of this.

On top some tax soaps and may be in some aerospace SEZ type deal making a tax holiday offer for 10-15 years perhaps for encouraging such investments and guaranteeing returns by decreasing total cost of production (may be less tax on importing sophisticated machinery for the plant) , and less income tax for corporate profits..Of course labour cost in India will be lower than in France.

"If DA sets up an assembly line in India with Reliance, the number of aircraft ordered will easily exceed 250 over a 15 year period including that of IN for Rafale-M. Rafale line will be used to replace Jags/M2K/Replacement for attrition."

A sensible comment from a senior boarder Vstol in another forum who is ex IAF and is also the one who had detailed the S400 and S500 deployments plus numerous views of what emerges in IAF top brass meetings..

 

[sathya]

@PARIKRAMA

What version of rafale are we going to get.
As you have pointed out already, it's going to be F3R after 2017, and
We will start receiving only from 2019 considering it's gonna be singled 26jan 2016.

Will simultaneous two block production happen at two production lines ?

 

[khakhi_chaddi]

Not so sure about the $5BN figure, I think $1-2BN will suffice. Reliance will be the lead intergrators but many of the sub-assemblies will be out-sourced to third party large, small and medium enterprises in India. Addtionally the 50% offset figure should cover much of this.

No point in arguing with people who live on hope of India having many Rafales when reality is turning to be different.

Few days back Safran cancelled deal to source parts in India as order size is small & there are not prospects for further orders.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@PARIKRAMA

What version of rafale are we going to get.
As you have pointed out already, it's going to be F3R after 2017, and
We will start receiving only from 2019 considering it's gonna be singled 26jan 2016.

Will simultaneous two block production happen at two production lines ?

We should get F3 OT4 as complied with our original MMRCA testing. I doubt the 2019 timeline and 7 years quoted in another article.. So at best i see that Indian order to be fulfilled fast track and perhaps Merignac first line post 2017 for a year or two to produce F3 versions before both 1st and 2nd line (exclusively dealing F3R) sureshot switching to F3R to meet all orders.

Here is the break up of productivity schedule (Crossposting)
2015:11
2016:11
2017:11-27, average 19 (second line comes online)
2018:27
2019:33
Total = 101 jets by 2019


Egypt
2015: 6
2016: 5
2017: 5
2018: 5
2019: 3
-------------
Total: 24

France
2015:5
2016: 0
2017: 0
2018: 0
2019: 10
____________
Total: 15

India
2015: 0
2016: 6
2017: 14
2018: 16
-----------------
Total: 36

Qatar/UAE
2018: 6
2019: 17

(credit to Randomradio)

So IAF gets all 36 by 2018. Egypt gets all 24 by 2019 as it has mix orders of F3 and F3R. As Qatar and UAE(potential) have only F3R orders, so they will get their jet only after 2018. This production estimate fits perfectly for IAF deliveries.
Since we had defined our need France is likely to divert its own military's production order for Rafale fighter jets to meet India's "urgent" requirement for 36 warplanes.

Its prudent that since India does not want F3R and wants to save cost by opting tried and tested F3 OT4, it makes MII part successful whereby Indian assembly line can assemble F3 OT4 from kits directly sent by Dassault chain of suppliers in its Indian Unit.

I think IAF may get interested in the much later customised F4 standard which is suppose to go online by 2022-23 timeline and may get a F4I for specific upgrades it wants with software/OS. So F3R is negated and straight forward upgraded to F4I types saving cost substantially.

 

[sathya]

No point in arguing with people who live on hope of India having many Rafales when reality is turning to be different.

Few days back Safran cancelled deal to source parts in India as order size is small & there are not prospects for further orders.

Yep I really forgot about safran .

Okay let's add up the negative points

1. 180 Rafales at what cost ? 30-40 billion $ ?
2. Safran cancelled engine make in India
3. It's era of 5 th generation aircrafts
4. Pak fa deal is also around the corner.
5. Our IAF defense budget have to support rafale pak fa LCA super sukhoi upgradation
6. Reliance is less than amateur in aerospace industry.
7. DM parrikar announced 36 is THE number. And later made further acquisition ambiguous May or May not.

Any other points ?

 

[Gen Padmanabhan]

No point in arguing with people who live on hope of India having many Rafales when reality is turning to be different.

Few days back Safran cancelled deal to source parts in India as order size is small & there are not prospects for further orders.

And how you concluded this?

Yep I really forgot about safran .

Okay let's add up the negative points

1. 180 Rafales at what cost ? 30-40 billion $ ?
2. Safran cancelled engine make in India
3. It's era of 5 th generation aircrafts
4. Pak fa deal is also around the corner.
5. Our IAF defense budget have to support rafale pak fa LCA super sukhoi upgradation
6. Reliance is less than amateur in aerospace industry.

Any other points ?

How you calculated 30-40 billion $?

BTW, you calculated this Total life cost or Off the shelf cost?

 

[nik141993]

People are jumping for no reason this could turn out to be another jumla