IMF Latest GDP Forecasts for South Asia

[UKBengali]

Sri Lanka is not a miracle. Indian state of Kerala and Goa with similar population fair better than Sri Lanka in HDI and other living standard measures, infact Goa has higher per capita than Sri Lanka

Goa is tiny(2 million people) and is India's tourist destination for rich Westerners so of course it will have a high GDP/capita.

Remember that Sri Lanka has just come out of a 25 year civil war, without which it probably would have been up there with the likes of Malaysia as a middle-income country.

 

[Sugarcane]

Sri Lanka is not a miracle. Indian state of Kerala and Goa with similar population fair better than Sri Lanka in HDI and other living standard measures, infact Goa has higher per capita than Sri Lanka

Dude why you guys get offended if any south asian country preform well than India - Here comparison is between countries not states - And Sri Lanka is doing well.

 

[Skyline]

Sri Lanka is not a miracle. Indian state of Kerala and Goa with similar population fair better than Sri Lanka in HDI and other living standard measures, infact Goa has higher per capita than Sri Lanka

Goa, Kerala? and then that tiny Goa against Sri Lanka. I don't understand your comparison logic. lol

 

[Skyline]

Asia’s Next Tigers? Burma, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka

 

[NGV-H]

SL has the highest GDP but why is the currency so weak? And from my friends I've heard the standard of living is also very good

This is because the currency was artificially pegged to decrease the cost of import. The government got rid of this recently, and will try to float the SL Rupee. But the value of the currency is not important, as even the yen of Japan is around the same value.

Sri Lanka is not a miracle. Indian state of Kerala and Goa with similar population fair better than Sri Lanka in HDI and other living standard measures, infact Goa has higher per capita than Sri Lanka

This is an error many Indians make when comparing Sri Lanka to India. You cannot compare your best provinces to an entire country, you must compare best provinces to best provinces, or countries to countries.

For example Colombo has a per capita GDP of PPP$12,000. Because it is per capita, population is irrelevant (you have divided by the inhabitants and removed it as a factor).

Here we are comparing countries to countries, so try to stay on topic.

 

[iam not greek]

This is because the currency was artificially pegged to decrease the cost of import. The government got rid of this recently, and will try to float the SL Rupee. But the value of the currency is not important, as even the yen of Japan is around the same value.



This is an error many Indians make when comparing Sri Lanka to India. You cannot compare your best provinces to an entire country, you must compare best provinces to best provinces, or countries to countries.

For example Colombo has a per capita GDP of PPP$12,000. Because it is per capita, population is irrelevant (you have divided by the inhabitants and removed it as a factor).

Here we are comparing countries to countries, so try to stay on topic.

Comparing India with Sri lanka is comparing Apple with oranges because of size,population, demography, diversity and geography.

Best you can compare is with countries like BD or Nepal, that would make sense

 

[NGV-H]

Comparing India with Sri lanka is comparing Apple with oranges because of size,population, demography, diversity and geography.

Best you can compare is with countries like BD or Nepal, that would make sense

Population does not matter when comparing per capita statistics. Per capita means for each person individually, regardless of how many there are. You understand this right?

Obviously all countries vary with diversity and geography. If that stopped comparison you can never compare any country. These are all just factors or excuses, the comparison between living standards and wealth is still valid.

 

[Azizam]

Comparing India with Sri lanka is comparing Apple with oranges because of size,population, demography, diversity and geography.

Best you can compare is with countries like BD or Nepal, that would make sense

That's stupid. On the positive side for India, India is powerful and it has fewer external problems than Sri Lanka.

 

[farhan_9909]

Where is the source?

And IMF prediction by Pakistan are proven twice wrong.

Such as in the 2010 chart of future GDP.

They predicted 2016billion GDP by 2012 But we all know even again according to their site PAK GDP reached 228-230billion dollars.

The same chart they predicted 222 Billion dollars for 2013.But we all know Pakistan GDP has now reached 252.8billion dollars.

Pakistan per capita income already is 1382 Than how do you expect it to reach just 1400 dollars in the next 5 years?

While the older IMF prediction used 1.79% growth rate for Pakistan.And even you know our GDP growth rate this year was 4.2%

Where is the source?

And IMF prediction by Pakistan are proven twice wrong.

Such as in the 2010 chart of future GDP.

They predicted 2016billion GDP by 2012 But we all know even again according to their site PAK GDP reached 228-230billion dollars.

The same chart they predicted 222 Billion dollars for 2013.But we all know Pakistan GDP has now reached 252.8billion dollars.

Pakistan per capita income already is 1382 Than how do you expect it to reach just 1400 dollars in the next 5 years?

While the older IMF prediction used 1.79% growth rate for Pakistan.And even you know our GDP growth rate this year was 4.2%

 

[UKBengali]

Comparing India with Sri lanka is comparing Apple with oranges because of size,population, demography, diversity and geography.

Best you can compare is with countries like BD or Nepal, that would make sense

You do know that BD has around 8 times more people than Sri Lanka?

Comparing BD with Sri Lanka is like comparing BD with India.

BD may be small in physical size but has a large population(150 million) and hence the potential to have a large GDP, which is currently over 150 billion US dollars in size.

Anyway it is valid to compare GDP/capita between Sri Lanka and India as they are both countries.

 

[UKBengali]

Where is the source?

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft...=513,564,524,534&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPDPC&grp=0&a=

It was in the hyperlink at the start of opening thread post.

While the IMF may be unestimating Pakistan, BD has a real chance by the end of the forecast to overtake Pakistan due to the following factors:

1. Actual BD GDP/capita is now over 1000 dollars.
2. BD will almost certainly grow 1-2% points quicker than Pakistan over the next 5 years
3. BD has a lower population growth rate than Pakistan(around 1% a year when compared to nearly 2% a year in Pakistan)

If Pakistan can stay ahead of BD by 2018, then good for Pakistan.

 

[farhan_9909]

The differenrce between Pak And Bangladesh GDP is still very huge.And i doubt i will take just 5 years
*Considering this That Pak GDP from 2011 has increased much faster as seen in the graph.
*Pakistan is set to grow by atleast more than 5% onwards 2015.While the growth prediction are more than 6%.
*Pakistan is a sleep Giant.And this Govt is all set to invest in industries.
*Pakistan Export could had been now more than 40billion dollars if the growth of export would have not stalled since 2008.Which since 2011 is again picking.
*IMF prediction of 2010 are based less than 2% average growth rate for Pakistan.


And Most important between 2011-2012 Pak GDP per capita has grown faster than even bangladesh as seen in the WB chart


GDP per capita (current US$) | Data | Graph



<div style="width:300px; font-family:'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height:20px"><div style="background-color:#333; padding:0px 5px; font-weight:bold"><div style="color:#fff; font-size:12px; line-height:20px;"><a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD/countries/PK-BD?display=graph" style="color:#fff;text-decoration:none;" class="active">GDP per capita (current US$)</a></div></div><script type="text/javascript">widgetContext = { "url": "http://data.worldbank.org/widgets/indicator/0/web_widgets_3/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD/countries/PK-BD", "width": 300, "height": 225, "widgetid": "web_widget_iframe_0f51922673036825de113e8dfac70c89" };</script><div id="web_widget_iframe_0f51922673036825de113e8dfac70c89"></div><script src="http://data.worldbank.org/profiles/datafinder/modules/contrib/web_widgets/iframe/web_widgets_iframe.js"></script><div style="font-size: 10px; color:#000">Data from <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD/countries/PK-BD?display=graph" style="color:#CCC;">World Bank</a></div></div>

 

[Skyline]

India and Pakistan have slower growth rate, they are in the last. so I think Bangladesh will lead the Indian subcontinent.
Good luck for Bangladesh!

 

[NGV-H]

Also interesting: Colombo's GDP PPP per capita is 2-3 times Goa's. (4000-5000 vs 12,000).

Although Sri Lanka may have a higher per capita GDP for a long time, BD's fast growth means it will probably have a greater impact on the region because of the higher population!

 

[shiv]

well BD's growth rate will never cross 6.5 inspite of it being a measly economy .. what shame