If Russia Wins Aleppo It's the End of American Hegemony in the Middle East

[mike2000 is back]

Actually, as my next post above indicated, I am not entirely in agreement with the article. That's probably because I am trained as critical realist, which allows me to look at social phenomena both historical and entirely pragmatist window.

I do not hold love-hate sentimentalism on issues related to geopolitics or geoeconomics. Nonetheless, interest pursuit is a form of love-hate relationship, right?

I do believe that the KSA is the pivotal country in US presence in the Middle East. I am telling this in a complete understanding of the British retreat from the region in the 1940s in favor of the US, when the KSA played the major role as baton carrier.



You are being simplistic, perhaps.

To give its fair share to the article in the OP, the author does not really argue that the US or other influential European countries have strong influence on Syria. Pre Arab Spring, in fact, Western leadership had a favorable view of the country's secular model.

The OP's focus is, as I understand, more on the significance of the Syrian war for the entire ME geopolitics, which is directly related to US presence. As it happens, the author argues that the reestablishment of Syria under President Assad as more or less unified nation would strike a fatal blow on the US standing.

This, I also, do not agree with. But, it may hurt the US by hurting its regional proxies such as Qatar, KSA and Turkey. Assad non-removal would certainly shift the regional politics considerably.



Your choice of words (Assassin, etc.) reflects emotional bias, which is fine. If he is such a bad person for bombing his own citizens, what would your own former elected leader be placed morally (reflecting, also, your national moral integrity)? Nevertheless, I agree, Syria will never be the same. It might be a better place, though, but we have to wait to see what will happen in the coming weeks as the proxy civil war reaches the breaking point.



I see some Western (surprisingly) liberal circles employing the same language with Saudi-Salafi radicals when it comes to Iran and the Shia. But, using the words such as "killings, brutalities, assassination, radicalism etc. will not increase the effect of your arguments any more than counter arguments to your country's/camp's/ideology's "killings, brutalities, assassinations etc.

I can debate you if you clear off the empty emotional-ideological jargon.



On this, we are in disagreement and will never come to similar terms. For me, simply put, Assad is the legitimate leader of his country even though his ruling might not be the best form of governance. Who said Middle East sans Syria is a rose garden for good governance (not democracy because democracy can easily be tyrannical)? I will not even mention the fact that majority of Syrians support their government which explains 1. why the government is still able to hold on, 2. why outside powers have to export militant Jihadists from Britain, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Lebanon, Russia and others.



You are talking like a radical Sunni cleric. I do not agree with you as I never agree with radical Sunni Jihadists. Western powers have provided substantial support although they did not "directly" target Syrian government (except US accidental killings and Israel's heart-warming love affair with former Nusra).

Currently, US-led coalition has been supporting terrorist groups (mostly foreign) rebranded as moderates.

You really misunderstand my point here. Who said I ever supporting other middle eastern dictatorship? Have you even been reading my post on this forum? If you ever did, you will know that I am the one who has always said one man rule/cult personality is a model that is always bound to fail at some point in time. This includes any country whether in the middle East or in North and subsaharan Africa or in East Asia(Kim Jung Un) etc. It almost always ends in civil war or instability and NO this has nothing to do with western Powers(since some of you always Blame all the world ills on the west. Lol).
Since when have our leaders ever bombed or ordered our military to shoot on our own people protesting against them or any oftheir laws/rule? Lol. Our leaders even leave power for meaningless things like our people not being in favour of a policy our government/leader wanted to implement much less about ordering a brutal Crackdown on our own people. David Cameron resigned recently as or leader for a silly reason , simply because he thought his vision for Britain in the E.U was rejected by our people lol can you imagine the backlash if he even ordered the police to use water cannons or simple rubber bullets on protesters or even thugs? Lol. So I don't see the comparison you are trying to make here. Lol

Foreign interventions is a different ball game altogether, since countries will always expand and try to protect/further their interests wherever they can. Be it the U S, U.K, France or your Russian buddy. Lol I don't see how you can compare this with the corrupt power hungry dictators in the middle east and Africa who are more about protecting their own power than the greater good of their country. Fact is ANY WESTERN LEADER FACING SUCH AN UPRISING/INSTABILITY AGAINST THEIR RULE would have resigned longggg ago and cede power for a political transition.

I use the words shia militias or sunni Islamic extremists since to me they are one and the same thing. They are all after furthering their respective ideology and version of Islam in the region. Our toppling of Saddam indeed help foster this sectarianism I admitted it a while ago. Since Saddam despite all his faults and brutal crackdown/use of chemical weapons on his own people did at least ensure balance of power in the region by curtailing Iran's ambition and preventing it from getting involved/exporting it's version of Islamic revolution which the mullahs had viwed to do after coming to power in the late 70s and early 80s. So I admit the U.S/U.K led invasion of Iraq was a big mistake indeed.

You say Syrian rebels are getting all the support they need/asked from western powers? That's another fallacy. Lol. Our military support for the rebels have been almost non existing. Especially delivery of sophisticated military equipments. Contrary to Russia's arming of Assad regime with all sorts of weapons systems they can afford. The little military equipments the rebels have received comes mainly from regional players like Turkey, KSA, gulf states etc. If we really wanted to support SYRIAN REBELS FOR REAL , then your ASSAD friend will not have any airforce left bro. And you know how much his forces rely on his airforce . This war will probably be over before Russia even had the chance to intervene.lol As I said before, seems our leaders favour a battle of attrition for some reason .

As dor your so called radical Sunnis Islamists claims against me, that's another funny statement, I expected it though since some of my views doesn't suit your so called anti western narrative. Lol To you and some people the evil west is to blame for everything, it's like to some people we are GOD, since to them we control everything and even people's brain and mind all over the world. Lmao. I'm sure the Syrian , egyptian, Bahrain Tunisian people rising up against their dictators is also a western inspired evil manipulation to change these countries to our liking . Ahahahahahah. You give us too much credit dude. To you as well. You see things from a white and black perspective , as long as one side seems to be so called anti western then they are holy and free of all crimes and are fighting for justice. Lol
Your Shias friends ans sunni extremists have both committed atrocities in the region. They are no different from each other. Once one side takes over a city/town dominated by the other, then they also cleanse them in the name of fighting Terrorism. You thinking one side is Holy just because of your feelings agaibst the west is another joke of the century. Lol

I don't give a rat *** about both sides to be honest. They are killing each other for their own religious reason and for power. You as an outsider might see things differently depending on your view vis. A vis western powers. KSA and shia powerhouse Iran are all exporting their versio of Islam and fighting proxy wars for their strategic benefit. On top of that U S/U K/France and Russia on one side have their own players they support in the region looking at the bigger picture geo politically .it's all about interests. Same with your Russian friends involvement

 

[jha]

Syria will prove to be Putin's Afghanistan if he does not agree to some sort of understanding.

Winning Alleppo is just not going to do much. Holding Aleppo will prove to be very costly.especially as Syrian armed forces are unable to hold positions without Russian aerial support. Its already been an year since Russia jumped into this conflict and it has not many strategic gains to show . All we have seen are some good tactical victories.

 

[libertad]

You are dumb like hell. America actually saved Assad by stopping weapon supplies to rebels.

Why were we arming them in the first place? Its not our war and there are no US interests there.

 

[dani958]

russia cant defeat usa she dont have even ucav

 

[Muhammed45]

America ie Israel has not been having it their way in Syria so in that repect we've already lost hegemony. We've tried to remove Assad for 5 years now and he's still there.

All of America's activities in the ME are at the behest of Israel. So it's really Israeli hegemony we are talking about here. There's nothing we are doing in the ME that benefits us strictly.

Thanks for bright comment.
American people are pretty angry of wasting their tax for sake of Israel. Thank you

 

[dani958]

Thanks for bright comment.
American people are pretty angry of wasting their tax for sake of Israel. Thank you

what is your problem with israel?
israel did nothing bad to iran what do you want from us

 

[haviZsultan]

America, though I want it to fall, will not fall because of some city far far away falls to Russian-Syrian-Iranian allied forces. It is wishful thinking, this. We all want America to be doomed. But the process can only occur if a new superpower rises from the ashes of our civilizations.

 

[500]

Why were we arming them in the first place? Its not our war and there are no US interests there.

Syria is ruled by illegal junta which seized power in military coup. People have all right to resist it.

 

[Muhammed45]

what do you want from us

Did you know that who forced your fathers and Jewish families to leave their homeland in USA and Europe?
Did you know who forced them to go to Israel?
Did you know who put you Jews against us?
Did you know who oppressed European Jews?
Don't tell me Hitler that's a BS lie. Hitler did whatever he had been asked to do.
I'm pretty sure that Jews are waking up. I also advice you to leave Israel and end the occupation. We have no problem with you if you let Palestinian women children go and stop killing them immediately. Leave our holy land then we can end enmity.

 

[dani958]

wont heppend

 

[Muhammed45]

wont heppend

So you will be the human shields of David Rockfeller, Neathan Rothschild , George Soros and other Zionists who are controlling USA.
We don't want to kill you, you are forcing us.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Hegemony? US hegemony will always be there until Israel ceases to exists or until the US stops controlling oil or its 7th Fleet stationed is moved over there.

What we are now seeing is an resurgent Russia that has now started to do more to protect countries outside its borders. Russia itself should get its facts right and start an economic revolution to 'stand long' if they wish to remain dominant and if they wish Syria is not an one time thing.

Personally I would like to Assad in power, areas fully under its control, rebels either surrender or choose a political path and finally an UN monitored elections. Syrian Army and Russian Army should defeat the terrorists at any costs.

 

[T-72M1]

They should go full Dresden/Grozny/Tokyo etc and firebomb the hell out of every square inch of Aleppo and retake it from the jihadis asap.

 

[cleverrider]

Syria is ruled by illegal junta which seized power in military coup. People have all right to resist it.

Welldone for answering the question.

 

[mike2000 is back]

what is your problem with israel?
Israel did nothing bad to iran what do you want from us

mullah constant Islamic propaganda. what do expect after the so called "Islamic revolution"?. Notice Iranian were not that obsessed during the moderate shah era. lol

No wonder many of their youths/people fled to the west after the "Islamic revolution" which they wanted to export to the whole region. its from there that the sectarian stuffs/conflict started in the middle east as the new Shia rulers in Tehran started battling with the Saudi Sunni powerhouse monarchs in KSA . The results of that is easy for all to see today.lol

They should go full Dresden/Grozny/Tokyo etc and firebomb the hell out of every square inch of Aleppo and retake it from the jihadis asap.

you should do the same in Kashmir using your logic.