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Hypothetical war scenario between China and India

Though i have to give this one to Indians, either out of their cowardliness, or banya thinking; they won't get provoked in to doing anything as such! And as we know of China they won't either because they are too smart to do so... Afghanistan library episode is a perfect example; gangus had lots to gain strategically if they were to involve militarily in Afghanistan but they didn't because they knew Afghanistan is big boys game.

Although another likely scenario is if economically India gets sustainable growth and becomes export driven; the interdependence of China vis a vis India will be too much; and will dent the military corporation between China and Pakistan. No permanent foes no permanent friends.


YoungPakBrother mine,

Utterly rational post. And I fail to find a flaw in its surface reality...

However, we do blind ourselves if we limit the threatre to the Actors aforementioned...

The present world PowerArchitecture has become stuck in a flux with advancement of China and the Chinese Comprehensive National Strength...

So either the TechnoFeudal Elite makes room at the HighTable for China or tries to contain it by retarding its further consolidation of Power...

India would need stable borders and peace within the region to develop for next 30 odd years to be on par with China of today...which is now becoming KeyTech producer and nascent Innovator as well.

So a DirectWar between China and India won't be prompted by themselves but rather would be engineered by those who could benefit from post DirectWar situation.

Neither China nor India will deploy Nukiz... not out of cowardice but out of sanity and will to live...

The theoratical question remains: Outcome of the DirectWar?

What does China need to declare TotalVictory? Ditto for the good Indians?

As of now there is Strategic Inertia in the region... look at PakIndia trenchwar on CeaseFireLine...going on for 7 decades... everyone is stuck knee deep and the Paradigm hasn't changed..

27Feb made the region dangerous
to miscalucation as it proved that there is NO Regional Hegemon... which makes room for both underestimation and overestimation... death sentence for countries...

We need to analyse India's Capabilities without PakBias
...and coldly evaluate its WarFightingAbilities... also, factoring in the recurring statements from IAChiefz..of TwoFrontWar Paradigm Readiness... is it a bluff of the weak or a promise of the strong?

China needs consumers for its products ..not countries...something to ponder upon!

Mangus
 
I would like to add up one important thing.

This is a fact in general.

Throughout the world,

  1. There are weak and poor countries (Eg : somalia)

  2. Then comes countries with limited Military power and economy, To defend against small scale proxies or constraints. (Eg : Nigeria, Sri Lanka)

  3. Then comes countries that have vast trade relations, Quite an economy, Good military buildup, But they are in Development phase, the pace is slow. They have big militaries, Inventory of weapons, A fragile but functioning economies, Squeeze it and you can get some drops for procurement. They have average to no indigenization.They have relationship troubles with some countries. (Eg : Pakistan, Egypt, India)
  4. Countries that have wealth, They always have the power to procure things they want, Economy on top. These countries generally are preferred by every vendor due to the “Cash in pockets”, Everyone wants them as customers. They are powerful but lack influence and face hurdles for coming out loud. (Eg : KSA, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar)
  5. SuperPowers - Countries that have huge economy, Infrastructure is there, Development graph has no to least change, curve is flat and on top. They have local industries or excess means to buy weapons, Maintain Huge forces and influence over other countries. (EG : USA, Russia, China)

Now, Take this scenario.
China and India, A war happens, Why ? What is the reason ? What is the meaning of war ? What is the difference between war and battle ? Are the Conflicts we know as war, Are actually wars or battles or just ops ?

Is war Not categorized ?

In fact, Wars can be categorized into three Categories.

  • Absolute War
  • Instrumental War
  • Agnostic Fighting
Absolute war is unrestricted and unregulated war,
Agonistic fighting is regulated according to norms,
and Instrumental war may or may not be restricted, according to considerations of expediency.

What The OP is considering here is Absolute War. Total Annihilation of either of the sides, But why ? Any Major Absolute War in the 21st century is directed upon the enemy’s economy and then on the Military Might. The spine of a country is Economy and To small extent, Military, But it varies from region to region where sometimes both are equally important. One can’t survive without the other.

For instance, Country such as KSA, Has Huge economy, Military Might is surprisingly not what such economy can actually support given the huge defence budget, (Military should be double or triple to what they are, Pakistan has 6 times smaller budget yet military is huge by multiple folds).

Coming back to total annihilation war between China And India, First question arises, “WHY ??”

What can lead to such disaster ? Such wars only happen if either of the country deems the destruction of the other is the ONLY key to survival. When did that happen the last time in the world ? Soviet Invasion ? Cold war ? WW2, WW1 ? Break everyone for survival ?

Fortunately, China and India doesn’t seem to share such thoughts mutually, Both parties know the consequences, India never openly comes out threatening China “Officially”.

China on the other hand, Knows, Any disturbance from any part if the world, Be it South China sea potential conflict, Conflict with India, Or any other state, Will lead to collapse of China’s economy, Export industry will be lost, Customers go elsewhere, Engine stalls then breaks, Take CoViD-19 as a Real Life and RealTime example, Look what has happened to the world, Would anyone want such to happen without preparing for backups ? Simple Answer is NO.

World will intervene in case of any conflict, the intervention would be Real and From the core. Prevention will be the ultimate solution unless one wants to introduce WW3 where USA backs India against China, Sides are made, Pakistan acts accordingly, Russia has to decide whether to part with or part ways.

Let me highlight another important Factor of Why A war wouldn’t happen Between India And China.

Simple, SuperPower and A country belonging to Point No.3 (refer to the table above) can’t fight, Doom for the latter, Economy breaks, The little might they gathered over years destroyed in a matter of week or even days, Feet cut, Vulnerable by the weakest.

As stated earlier,
Superpowers have enough cash to sign huge weapons deals for the lowest time period contracts ie, They can afford to pay cash upfront on spot, have cash to spare all the time for such huge deals. Their primary focus is not building up but maintaining what they have.


OTOH, Countries from Category 3, They spare money but with problems, Not easy to do that, Economic problems, Civil crises, Poverty, They all are the Limiting Factors. It takes these countries decades to build up some might that a super power can pay in a matter of 3-6 years and can gather a might more than these Cat3 countries. Cat 3 countries take decades, smallest of the deals take 3-5 years to materialize, Cash isn’t upfront, rather on installments, They allocate from defence budget every month just for something not so big.

SuperPowers also usually have local industries to manufacture weapons on urgent basis when needed, This helps in war.


So when Cat 3 countries fight against Super powers, Victory isn’t certain but stalemate has some chances while defeat is imminent.

To defeat a superpower, Nuclear is the way.

TLDS : India doesn’t stand a chance against the economic, Infrastructure and military might of China for even a week in a ‘TOTAL ANNIHILATION WAR’ unless Nuclear comes on the table to cool things down or worsen it.

@Mangus Ortus Novem @SIPRA @Slav Defence @WebMaster @HRK @Signalian @Blacklight @The Eagle @Dazzler @dbc @aliyusuf @jaibi @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Verve @RescueRanger @notorious_eagle


Umm I don't think India will go to war alone...alliance with Japan,Vietnam,South Korea,USA and may be Turkey is the only way..other than that well written piece..you earn my upvote

India can't win a "war" with Pakistan, let alone China. All you gotta do is look at the history of "india" go back thousands of years and you will see what will be the outcome. India in it's current form is artificial, bound to disintegrate.


As long as political Islam is a threat, India will continue to be united...but I would agree with you, without the backdrop of political Islam, the natural composition of India would be four states...with Pakistan --->Five

Indian subcontinent is aorund 4 million sq kms...if we include the western half of Pakistan (which is not traditionally subcontinent but rather central Asia and West Asia) then it is around 4.3 million sq kms

naturally around 4 big countries of 1 million sq kms should exist and one smaller of around 300,000 sq kms
 
Umm I don't think India will go to war alone...alliance with Japan,Vietnam,South Korea,USA and may be Turkey is the only way..other than that well written piece..you earn my upvote
Small petty issues get solved on tables when it comes to super powers (China here), forming of alliances means the world is being affected by the conflict, which I don’t see anytime soon so no chance of war
 
YoungPakBrother mine,

Utterly rational post. And I fail to find a flaw in its surface reality...

However, we do blind ourselves if we limit the threatre to the Actors aforementioned...

The present world PowerArchitecture has become stuck in a flux with advancement of China and the Chinese Comprehensive National Strength...

So either the TechnoFeudal Elite makes room at the HighTable for China or tries to contain it by retarding its further consolidation of Power...

India would need stable borders and peace within the region to develop for next 30 odd years to be on par with China of today...which is now becoming KeyTech producer and nascent Innovator as well.

So a DirectWar between China and India won't be prompted by themselves but rather would be engineered by those who could benefit from post DirectWar situation.

Neither China nor India will deploy Nukiz... not out of cowardice but out of sanity and will to live...

The theoratical question remains: Outcome of the DirectWar?

What does China need to declare TotalVictory? Ditto for the good Indians?

As of now there is Strategic Inertia in the region... look at PakIndia trenchwar on CeaseFireLine...going on for 7 decades... everyone is stuck knee deep and the Paradigm hasn't changed..

27Feb made the region dangerous
to miscalucation as it proved that there is NO Regional Hegemon... which makes room for both underestimation and overestimation... death sentence for countries...

We need to analyse India's Capabilities without PakBias
...and coldly evaluate its WarFightingAbilities... also, factoring in the recurring statements from IAChiefz..of TwoFrontWar Paradigm Readiness... is it a bluff of the weak or a promise of the strong?

China needs consumers for its products ..not countries...something to ponder upon!

Mangus


I agree completely; power from "the west" is slipping like the sand slips from fist as we speak, lil bit less every single moment; recent decades of growth of china was not from "indigenous export" rather "west driven manufacturing export"; which however is changing and i can't agree more that "China needs consumers for its products ..not countries" and if this consolidates; we are in hot waters.

IMO, china is a solid reality now and "west" have to offer them something, yeah they will try to use India to counter to a certain extent. Militarily if they were able to do something, west would've had provoked china via japan in south china sea fiasco to "contain it". But that didn't happen, so i don't think they are putting their weight behind India in that regard. Another likely scenario is moving those "west driven exports industry" of china to India or another country "for containment". But the diversification of china's economy and moving away from that model of growth to "indigenous growth" will be a key for prevention on china's part. World economy after covid-19 will be the driving factor for next few decades. And the posturing we are seeing from China says quite much!

The scenario i want to discuss is rather if China takes it's weight away from Pakistan. When Pakistan was ally of US in 1960s onward we had golden chance to take investments to build industries and take manufacturing sectors for US, we rather opted for military corporation, we now have god given chance to do the same with China but we are opting for military corporation more than industrial corporation. Ok a bit is going on on CPEC front; but the geo-dynamics are changing too quickly and we have to act now to secure our interests before it's too late.
 
@beijingwalker ...How come you are missing in action in this thread...Share something that can keep us busy in this thread...
 
Small petty issues get solved on tables when it comes to super powers (China here), forming of alliances means the world is being affected by the conflict, which I don’t see anytime soon so no chance of war


Say if civilization starts collapsing because of one of these virus getting out of control...on top of that global warming related disasters...what will happen to the nukes? will all the powers make one last mad dash to make gains before the clock of civilization is turned back?
 
The scenario i want to discuss is rather if China takes it's weight away from Pakistan. When Pakistan was ally of US in 1960s onward we had golden chance to take investments to build industries and take manufacturing sectors for US, we rather opted for military corporation, we now have god given chance to do the same with China but we are opting for military corporation more than industrial corporation. Ok a bit is going on on CPEC front; but the geo-dynamics are changing too quickly and we have to act now to secure our interests before it's too late.


Please, start a thread on this subject... I would like to contribute there than here!

Great thinking...but now think harder!

Mangus
 
Say if civilization starts collapsing because of one of these virus getting out of control...on top of that global warming related disasters...what will happen to the nukes? will all the powers make one last mad dash to make gains before the clock of civilization is turned back?
What happened to your thread
 
Total war would quickly become disasterous for everyone therefore it's unlikely you need to focus on the efficency of small scale ops as direct hostility. Believe me, that's an art in itself.
I would like to add up one important thing.

This is a fact in general.

Throughout the world,

  1. There are weak and poor countries (Eg : somalia)

  2. Then comes countries with limited Military power and economy, To defend against small scale proxies or constraints. (Eg : Nigeria, Sri Lanka)

  3. Then comes countries that have vast trade relations, Quite an economy, Good military buildup, But they are in Development phase, the pace is slow. They have big militaries, Inventory of weapons, A fragile but functioning economies, Squeeze it and you can get some drops for procurement. They have average to no indigenization.They have relationship troubles with some countries. (Eg : Pakistan, Egypt, India)
  4. Countries that have wealth, They always have the power to procure things they want, Economy on top. These countries generally are preferred by every vendor due to the “Cash in pockets”, Everyone wants them as customers. They are powerful but lack influence and face hurdles for coming out loud. (Eg : KSA, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar)
  5. SuperPowers - Countries that have huge economy, Infrastructure is there, Development graph has no to least change, curve is flat and on top. They have local industries or excess means to buy weapons, Maintain Huge forces and influence over other countries. (EG : USA, Russia, China)

Now, Take this scenario.
China and India, A war happens, Why ? What is the reason ? What is the meaning of war ? What is the difference between war and battle ? Are the Conflicts we know as war, Are actually wars or battles or just ops ?

Is war Not categorized ?

In fact, Wars can be categorized into three Categories.

  • Absolute War
  • Instrumental War
  • Agnostic Fighting
Absolute war is unrestricted and unregulated war,
Agonistic fighting is regulated according to norms,
and Instrumental war may or may not be restricted, according to considerations of expediency.

What The OP is considering here is Absolute War. Total Annihilation of either of the sides, But why ? Any Major Absolute War in the 21st century is directed upon the enemy’s economy and then on the Military Might. The spine of a country is Economy and To small extent, Military, But it varies from region to region where sometimes both are equally important. One can’t survive without the other.

For instance, Country such as KSA, Has Huge economy, Military Might is surprisingly not what such economy can actually support given the huge defence budget, (Military should be double or triple to what they are, Pakistan has 6 times smaller budget yet military is huge by multiple folds).

Coming back to total annihilation war between China And India, First question arises, “WHY ??”

What can lead to such disaster ? Such wars only happen if either of the country deems the destruction of the other is the ONLY key to survival. When did that happen the last time in the world ? Soviet Invasion ? Cold war ? WW2, WW1 ? Break everyone for survival ?

Fortunately, China and India doesn’t seem to share such thoughts mutually, Both parties know the consequences, India never openly comes out threatening China “Officially”.

China on the other hand, Knows, Any disturbance from any part if the world, Be it South China sea potential conflict, Conflict with India, Or any other state, Will lead to collapse of China’s economy, Export industry will be lost, Customers go elsewhere, Engine stalls then breaks, Take CoViD-19 as a Real Life and RealTime example, Look what has happened to the world, Would anyone want such to happen without preparing for backups ? Simple Answer is NO.

World will intervene in case of any conflict, the intervention would be Real and From the core. Prevention will be the ultimate solution unless one wants to introduce WW3 where USA backs India against China, Sides are made, Pakistan acts accordingly, Russia has to decide whether to part with or part ways.

Let me highlight another important Factor of Why A war wouldn’t happen Between India And China.

Simple, SuperPower and A country belonging to Point No.3 (refer to the table above) can’t fight, Doom for the latter, Economy breaks, The little might they gathered over years destroyed in a matter of week or even days, Feet cut, Vulnerable by the weakest.

As stated earlier,
Superpowers have enough cash to sign huge weapons deals for the lowest time period contracts ie, They can afford to pay cash upfront on spot, have cash to spare all the time for such huge deals. Their primary focus is not building up but maintaining what they have.


OTOH, Countries from Category 3, They spare money but with problems, Not easy to do that, Economic problems, Civil crises, Poverty, They all are the Limiting Factors. It takes these countries decades to build up some might that a super power can pay in a matter of 3-6 years and can gather a might more than these Cat3 countries. Cat 3 countries take decades, smallest of the deals take 3-5 years to materialize, Cash isn’t upfront, rather on installments, They allocate from defence budget every month just for something not so big.

SuperPowers also usually have local industries to manufacture weapons on urgent basis when needed, This helps in war.


So when Cat 3 countries fight against Super powers, Victory isn’t certain but stalemate has some chances while defeat is imminent.

To defeat a superpower, Nuclear is the way.

TLDS : India doesn’t stand a chance against the economic, Infrastructure and military might of China for even a week in a ‘TOTAL ANNIHILATION WAR’ unless Nuclear comes on the table to cool things down or worsen it.

@Mangus Ortus Novem @SIPRA @Slav Defence @WebMaster @HRK @Signalian @Blacklight @The Eagle @Dazzler @dbc @aliyusuf @jaibi @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Verve @RescueRanger @notorious_eagle

Clearly state it's your opinion to avoid any confusion such as 'OPINION: Hypothetical Small Scale Battle in Asia' etc.,
got deleted..since it was just a discussion thread without any links
 
Total war would quickly become disasterous for everyone therefore it's unlikely you need to focus on the efficency of small scale ops as direct hostility. Believe me, that's an art in itself.


Clearly state it's your opinion to avoid any confusion such as 'OPINION: Hypothetical Small Scale Battle in Asia' etc.,
I believe kargil was never a war, Pakistan and India have been in a state of war since 1947, All 4 so called wars are nothing but a group of battles, it gets cold then hot and cold..
 
Yes. Asal jang Ghazwa e Hind ho gi.
7963F9C6-BDF9-4FEC-8A7E-D9C4BD46AF5A.jpeg
 
Technically that's not true. What do you call a war? The military defines it very carefully and precisely. Therefore, we've to study this subject keenly. If militaries are convinced that a major conflict is coming and are preparing for it thinking of a conventional inward push then they'd train and invest accordingly. In case of a different form of belligerence, such as a small scale intense small war or an unconventional military pressure (i.e. exclusive drone usage or completely cyber operations) then the organisation won't be able to adapt quickly enough to impose its own will in face of such aggression. That's why I'm telling you, total war is not a likely situation. Focus on small wars, and if we look at it that way then I think it'd be a close competition.

Here's my thinking, being completely neutral here: India has had experience in holding multiple fronts simlutaneously such as continuous military presence against active insurgencies. India can back up her military efforts industrially as well and has the number of forces available to reasonably defend supply lines. If there is a prolonged war then India would could realistically come on top.

However, the Chinese side has a much more aggressively trained military. Their inter-services coordination and civil-military relations are smooth and designed for adaptability. Therefore, their aim would be to have an intense small war to inflict as much damage as possible before int'l pressure or regional pressures force a political settlement. Thus, if provoked they'd be razor sharp in their attacks, their strategy would be to delay a prolonged operation and try to finish the fight in the first few rounds. So it's strategically the exact opposite of India (remember, China has had extremely rare military conflicts but has invested heavily in her capabilities and learnt well through allies and geopolitical involvement). So, China would have the upper hand in a small, time bound, focused war that limits territorial incursions to hold especially civilian areas.

Interesting isn't it?

Here's the point I think is important, I think in the current situation, China's military is a in a better shape in terms of the synchronity of manpower (epecially of the officers), technical capabilities (focused on inter-services cooperation) as well as tactical (how to fight) and strategic (victory conditions) features of modern warfare. Therefore, it's more likely that they'd swing the battle in their own interest. I would not write India off though, I think that the bureaucratic incursion starting with the fall of Congress recently had sent the Indian military machine into a more bureaucratic direction and their inter-services cooperation, strategic aims and tactical capabilities as well as focus shows that lapse. India, being closer to a Western democracy in their politics than Pakistan or China had more chances of utilizing their media to highlight the issue, use advisors and readjust. Sadly, the politicalization of the military and lobbying of the media made it impossible. Therefore, instead of learning from the previous episode the focus has been in creating victory conditions. Unless that changes, I think in any situation China would get the upper hand in a confrontation.

My thoughts are based purely on military thinking, not political position or nationalism. This is purely academic speculation or educated guess work. If I offended anyone especially from the two nations I'm discussing then I apologize and wish you to know that that's not my intention.

Regards.
I believe kargil was never a war, Pakistan and India have been in a state of war since 1947, All 4 so called wars are nothing but a group of battles, it gets cold then hot and cold..
 

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