Hypothetical war scenario between China and India

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Hi,

Do these young people have totally lost their minds and co,,om sense---. More muslims are dead by the invasion of the US military in the region than thru the armies of Chengiz Khan---.

And these muslim boys so blind that they can't even see that---.

PakBrother mine, dear MK,


I did ask Our @Mentee to Define War in the PresentAge..... I am waiting, waiting, waiting....

The Vectors of War have changed... and TotalWar has evolved too...and so has the Nature of Diplomacy... for which TotalWar is supposed to be an extension.

WarGaming is gone Artificial Intelligence heavy... and constantly fed new data from the BattleSpace to keep it coming up with NewScenarios ....

I find The Art of War to be a sublime Artefact of Thinking and a powerful Critique on Statecraft ...of which Total/DirectWar is a component ...

However, as the Contextual Nature of DirectWar/TotalWar has changed...so is the value of Applied Art of War!

Bitter is the sip from hemlock in the Cup of Experience... perhaps thats what getting old means...or perhaps not... All is Contextual!

YoungPaks are learning the ropes... if they stand open people like your good self be a great learning curve!

Mangus

 

[Mentee]

I did ask Our @Mentee to Define War in the PresentAge..... I am waiting, waiting, waiting....

Taking advantage of the situation when the nemesis is least expecting.


In my view point it's is basically tri dimensional, economic, diplomatic and military.

Moreover when we are about to exhaust any one of these especially the military one, all necessary factors which could render the enemy a sigh of relief should also be taken into account and strategies planed accordingly.

Now there's a solid apprehension of the enemy being unpredictable and all those relief valves for the adversary getting clogged in the hind sight for obvious reasons.

Dear sir my assertion is that those relief valves must not/not allowed to be infinitely obstruct achieving the national strategic goals. And that's what war means.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Taking advantage of the situation when the nemesis is least expecting.


In my view point it's is basically tri dimensional, economic, diplomatic and military.

Moreover when we are about to exhaust any one of these especially the military one, all necessary factors which could render the enemy a sigh of relief should also be taken into account and strategies planed accordingly.

Now there's a solid apprehension of the enemy being unpredictable and all those relief valves for the adversary getting clogged in the hind sight for obvious reasons.

Dear sir my assertion is that those relief valves must not/not allowed to be infinitely obstruct achieving the national strategic goals. And that's what war means.

Oye Putar Pakistan dae!!!


Had to sleep on it to do your post justice.

With SouthTibet and Sikkim under the IndianOccupation the SoftUnderbelly of the Dragon is permanently exposed.... and then there is de facto Occupation of Bhuttan by the good Indians.... ditto in effect to the SofterBelllyThing.

Ladakh is another extremely vulnerable point of entry to Tibet..almost a Gateway.... so the Quantum of Threat is rather large.... @StormBreaker @Blacklight

The Chinese know it very well and have planned accordingly....

Doklam was such a great victory for the good Indians that the supreme leader CheeWala had to ask for personal mono o mono with Pres. Xi ....in BeiJing..... Modi besieged and Xi agreed to clam things down....

The Chinese are still there on Doklam...the road is still there...and some throughout-the-year accomodations for the PLA have also been built...

And oh yeah let us not forget BraMouse as if the other side will be sitting playing Game of Go ...unawares of falling BraMouse....

If we need to understand the probable SinoIndian egagement then we need to see where both of them measure in terms of Quantum of Maturity in the 9 Vectors of War....

BTW as @Khanivore will inform us the PLAAN is running quite a mechanised School of Intelligent Fish in the AfroAsian/AfroPakOcean for some time now....mapping, mapping, gridding the grid....

So what we see before us beyond the Chinese Horn of Africa Logistic Base is also overall synergy developing between PNS and PLAAN ...sharing the same StrategicObject i.e. AfroAsian/AfroPakOcean remains FREE!

We have to enlarge our Calculus a bit to bench mark assets of the both...and their comparative effecitiveness or capabilities... in any given BattleSpace or in TotalWarSpace.

For China it will be fuitile to engage in any battle which doesn't open the next climbing step.... Staircase offers reprie/rest ...and also some consolidation.... Winning Miles inch by inch is an artform if a DirectWar is not desired.

In case of hostility China will first endeavour to Blind India in totality... it could employ anyone one of or combinations of tools/assets to leverage gains in each of the 9 Vectors of TotalWar.

All the time making sure that South China and East China Seas remain calm... this is clearly be seen from the Chinese naval build up... more of Defensive than offensive in nature even today...all geared towards Denial of space within the 9 DashLine.... it is not only for Oil n Gas but a protection layer for the mainland from LRSLCM

This constant nagging about TwoFrontWar is more of a soundbite of selfassurance or at best an empty brovado...

In a DirectWar with Pakistan ... even if we go down... MightyIndia will be reduced to rubble... and the good Indians know it...hence we are in the TrenchWarfare for so long on CeaseFireLine ....

If you care to look carefully the String of Pearles was a smokescreen with the good Indians took hook and nook...and are still chewing on it.

Tibet is China's Palm.... this needs to be understood in a much broader context than just a landmass....

Neither Japan nor India possess capital, manpower or expertise to come up against BRI ...whereas Japan has now changed its tune and is cooperation/jointventuring in selected project.... India is bogged in the dry mud of its own doing...

So for now the IndiaContainmentStrategy will keep moving forward Inch by Inch...and before you know Miles would have been eaten.

It is our thorough failure that we have NEVER tried to understand the ChineseCulture/Civilisation or Political/MilitaryThinking...

We have our Biggest Market nextdoor and we know Jack about it... Kottaism Reigns Supreme in all segements of the Elite.... @Ace of Spades @N.Siddiqui

The purpose of creating such a large artificial country aka India was to Keep Pakistan Down and China Out ....

Now what do you think is the CounterIntuitiveStrategy of SinoPakAxis? @Slav Defence

Good things to those who weight.... weight with Intent and Will that is.... @jaibi @Signalian @PakSword

Kashmir Will be Solved When China Wants it to be Solved... might not be that far off! @Verve @Reddington

For now allow me to share a favourite!

Mangus

 

[Surya 1]

Hi,

Guys let's discuss a hostile scenario between the two Asian rivals and implications for world's peace

@Mangus Ortus Novem @fitpOsitive @SIPRA @Syed Hammad Ahmed @BHarwana @StormBreaker @Cashew @Max @maxpayne @Baba Google @black light @Ace of Spades @Philip the Arab

The country which mobilizes its forces to attack will e defeated. None of the countries has the capability to mobilize its forces on foreign soil and win a war there.

 

[Juggernaut_Flat_Plane_V8]

If India chooses to challenge China's One China initiative. China may go the 1962 way of settling her territorial disputes with India which is a ceremonial proceeding in most thought process.

The question is: What is the assessment of Chinese on the impact of a destabilized India on their economy and strategic goals.

Well India did have a reply in 1967

 

[Mentee]

Oye Putar Pakistan dae!!!


Had to sleep on it to do your post justice.

With SouthTibet and Sikkim under the IndianOccupation the SoftUnderbelly of the Dragon is permanently exposed.... and then there is de facto Occupation of Bhuttan by the good Indians.... ditto in effect to the SofterBelllyThing.

Ladakh is another extremely vulnerable point of entry to Tibet..almost a Gateway.... so the Quantum of Threat is rather large.... @StormBreaker @Blacklight

The Chinese know it very well and have planned accordingly....

Doklam was such a great victory for the good Indians that the supreme leader CheeWala had to ask for personal mono o mono with Pres. Xi ....in BeiJing..... Modi besieged and Xi agreed to clam things down....

The Chinese are still there on Doklam...the road is still there...and some throughout-the-year accomodations for the PLA have also been built...

And oh yeah let us not forget BraMouse as if the other side will be sitting playing Game of Go ...unawares of falling BraMouse....

If we need to understand the probable SinoIndian egagement then we need to see where both of them measure in terms of Quantum of Maturity in the 9 Vectors of War....

BTW as @Khanivore will inform us the PLAAN is running quite a mechanised School of Intelligent Fish in the AfroAsian/AfroPakOcean for some time now....mapping, mapping, gridding the grid....

So what we see before us beyond the Chinese Horn of Africa Logistic Base is also overall synergy developing between PNS and PLAAN ...sharing the same StrategicObject i.e. AfroAsian/AfroPakOcean remains FREE!

We have to enlarge our Calculus a bit to bench mark assets of the both...and their comparative effecitiveness or capabilities... in any given BattleSpace or in TotalWarSpace.

For China it will be fuitile to engage in any battle which doesn't open the next climbing step.... Staircase offers reprie/rest ...and also some consolidation.... Winning Miles inch by inch is an artform if a DirectWar is not desired.

In case of hostility China will first endeavour to Blind India in totality... it could employ anyone one of or combinations of tools/assets to leverage gains in each of the 9 Vectors of TotalWar.

All the time making sure that South China and East China Seas remain calm... this is clearly be seen from the Chinese naval build up... more of Defensive than offensive in nature even today...all geared towards Denial of space within the 9 DashLine.... it is not only for Oil n Gas but a protection layer for the mainland from LRSLCM

This constant nagging about TwoFrontWar is more of a soundbite of selfassurance or at best an empty brovado...

In a DirectWar with Pakistan ... even if we go down... MightyIndia will be reduced to rubble... and the good Indians know it...hence we are in the TrenchWarfare for so long on CeaseFireLine ....

If you care to look carefully the String of Pearles was a smokescreen with the good Indians took hook and nook...and are still chewing on it.

Tibet is China's Palm.... this needs to be understood in a much broader context than just a landmass....

Neither Japan nor India possess capital, manpower or expertise to come up against BRI ...whereas Japan has now changed its tune and is cooperation/jointventuring in selected project.... India is bogged in the dry mud of its own doing...

So for now the IndiaContainmentStrategy will keep moving forward Inch by Inch...and before you know Miles would have been eaten.

It is our thorough failure that we have NEVER tried to understand the ChineseCulture/Civilisation or Political/MilitaryThinking...

We have our Biggest Market nextdoor and we know Jack about it... Kottaism Reigns Supreme in all segements of the Elite.... @Ace of Spades @N.Siddiqui

The purpose of creating such a large artificial country aka India was to Keep Pakistan Down and China Out ....

Now what do you think is the CounterIntuitiveStrategy of SinoPakAxis? @Slav Defence

Good things to those who weight.... weight with Intent and Will that is.... @jaibi @Signalian @PakSword

Kashmir Will be Solved When China Wants it to be Solved... might not be that far off! @Verve @Reddington

For now allow me to share a favourite!

Mangus

If Chinese just manage to make the world and them selves look the other way around for three - 4 weeks in case india crosses the red line and - - - - - - - - so it would be considered only a regional issue and by the time peace prevails India might have paid dearly? this imo saves the depletion of Chinese military and economic muscle.

 

[El Sidd]

Well India did have a reply in 1967

Yes and we can see China struggling ever since

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

If Chinese just manage to make the world and them selves look the other way around for three - 4 weeks in case india crosses the red line and - - - - - - - - so it would be considered only a regional issue and by the time peace prevails India might have paid dearly? this imo saves the depletion of Chinese military and economic muscle.

It is, of course, the Chinese saying: How to cook a living frog?

 

[Joe Shearer]

And Indian will be watching Bollywood movies during the time period...

Why are you getting involved? These are their fantasies; read their comments, and their firm belief that they won everything but lost the peace every time. Leave them alone; read their comments and study them, because their worst insecurities and fears are open for inspection in these threads. Any effort at long-lasting peace must take these fears into account.

 

[SIPRA]

If Chinese just manage to make the world and them selves look the other way around for three - 4 weeks in case india crosses the red line and - - - - - - - - so it would be considered only a regional issue and by the time peace prevails India might have paid dearly? this imo saves the depletion of Chinese military and economic muscle.

Janaab: Ae Chinese nay mil kay akathay kiray mootar wi ker chhadeya; tay India aalay warh jaan gay.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Technically that's not true. What do you call a war? The military defines it very carefully and precisely. Therefore, we've to study this subject keenly. If militaries are convinced that a major conflict is coming and are preparing for it thinking of a conventional inward push then they'd train and invest accordingly. In case of a different form of belligerence, such as a small scale intense small war or an unconventional military pressure (i.e. exclusive drone usage or completely cyber operations) then the organisation won't be able to adapt quickly enough to impose its own will in face of such aggression. That's why I'm telling you, total war is not a likely situation. Focus on small wars, and if we look at it that way then I think it'd be a close competition.

Here's my thinking, being completely neutral here: India has had experience in holding multiple fronts simlutaneously such as continuous military presence against active insurgencies. India can back up her military efforts industrially as well and has the number of forces available to reasonably defend supply lines. If there is a prolonged war then India would could realistically come on top.

However, the Chinese side has a much more aggressively trained military. Their inter-services coordination and civil-military relations are smooth and designed for adaptability. Therefore, their aim would be to have an intense small war to inflict as much damage as possible before int'l pressure or regional pressures force a political settlement. Thus, if provoked they'd be razor sharp in their attacks, their strategy would be to delay a prolonged operation and try to finish the fight in the first few rounds. So it's strategically the exact opposite of India (remember, China has had extremely rare military conflicts but has invested heavily in her capabilities and learnt well through allies and geopolitical involvement). So, China would have the upper hand in a small, time bound, focused war that limits territorial incursions to hold especially civilian areas.

Interesting isn't it?

Here's the point I think is important, I think in the current situation, China's military is a in a better shape in terms of the synchronity of manpower (epecially of the officers), technical capabilities (focused on inter-services cooperation) as well as tactical (how to fight) and strategic (victory conditions) features of modern warfare. Therefore, it's more likely that they'd swing the battle in their own interest. I would not write India off though, I think that the bureaucratic incursion starting with the fall of Congress recently had sent the Indian military machine into a more bureaucratic direction and their inter-services cooperation, strategic aims and tactical capabilities as well as focus shows that lapse. India, being closer to a Western democracy in their politics than Pakistan or China had more chances of utilizing their media to highlight the issue, use advisors and readjust. Sadly, the politicalization of the military and lobbying of the media made it impossible. Therefore, instead of learning from the previous episode the focus has been in creating victory conditions. Unless that changes, I think in any situation China would get the upper hand in a confrontation.

My thoughts are based purely on military thinking, not political position or nationalism. This is purely academic speculation or educated guess work. If I offended anyone especially from the two nations I'm discussing then I apologize and wish you to know that that's not my intention.

Regards.

I wish you hadn't intervened. You have almost single-handedly converted this into a rational thread.

 

[jaibi]

Apologies, sir, couldn't resist

I wish you hadn't intervened. You have almost single-handedly converted this into a rational thread.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Apologies, sir, couldn't resist

Very unkind of you, considering the lack of anything to do in these days of lock-down. On the other hand, I recognise the temptation.

It does make me nervous, however, to read the kind of infantile fantasies floating around. Sometimes, it makes me think that Modi and his acolytes are a predictable reaction, until it comes to mind that they are not reacting, they were toxic from the days of Savarkar. But the possibilities of silly young people in India reacting on the Internet is not very harmful; it is if such attitudes percolate - Heaven forbid - into our young officers that serious, long-lasting damage will be done.

 

[The BrOkEn HeArT]

Well here is what I think will happen:

1- China will start by launching a massive AI/Cyber attack on India's 3rd grade infrastructure. Within first 6-hours, most of indian civilian communication systems and essential infrastructure will stop working. Within 10 hours all Military communications will be dead.
2- Within first 6-hours, China will destroy all indian satellites.
3- Within first few minutes, China will launch 'Hypersonic' missiles at all Indian nuclear sites. Most of the indian nuclear sites will be destroyed. Those remaining will not be able to communicate.
4- Within first few minutes, China will launch 'Hypersonic' and other missiles to destroy most of indian storage facilities including fuel.
5- Within 24 hours, China will gain Air Superiority. Within one week, most of Indian Airforce will be destroyed.
6- Within 48 hours, all indian border military infrastructure will be destroyed.
7- PLA will then launch massive Ground and naval offensive. Within 48 hours, most of Northern india will be under the control of China. Within 7-days, New Delhi will be under the Chinese Control.
8- In Coordination with Pakistan, all J&K will be conquered by Pakistan along with Indian Punjab.
9- Chinese Naval forces will disrupt Indian Navy to the extent that it remains ineffective.

All in all, 70% of India will fall to China within 7 to 10 days.

problem solved. Now ask your daddy to attack on India if they have a thing called "gutts".
BTW they still are not able to build a road in Doklam.

i think Pakistan will fully support china in any such war and our army will invade kashmir,india has many independent movements and large number of their people want independence,I think india will disintegrate easily in such war and large number of indian states will declare independence,indian economy is in no position to sustain war with china

You are making the same mistake what your grandparents made in the past and lost Bangladesh.

Modi again fires a Salvo at pak Kashmir to earn brownies back at home and suppress the corona mayhem a bit but, this time they manage to hit some real school or military targets? - - - - - - - - forcing Pak to retaliate with a greater intensity than ever before - - - - - - -.



But India doesn't call it a day and instead fire another one, Pak left with no option but to kick back again and the cycle gains momentum - - - - - - - - - so consequently cpec gets jeopardized - - - - - -


Now what would you call it?





The world didn't come down to bail you out on 27 th of February against Pakistan, why would they render you a victory against China?


Indians with their delusions of self inevitability

@MastanKhan @Blacklight any Indian misadventure might turn into a short term regional conflict to force India to give up her imperial hegemonic designs and for that to happen the winners shall take a chunk of territory out of the Indian union becoz its essential to have a everlasting peaceful working and trade relationship with the down sized version of Indian later on. I hope the guys at the top do count it in their theat analysis

Besides this is also the only saving grace for India if it want to survive as a country after the battle

You are trolling on your own thread. Have some shame.

 

[M. Sarmad]

I wish you hadn't intervened. You have almost single-handedly converted this into a rational thread.

Janab how are you feeling now?

As for the thread, would like to know your opinion on India-China rivalry ... I believe it didn't have to be this way... China and India could have been strategic allies .. Nehru made a strategic blunder by ignoring repeated Chinese requests/attempts to foster good neighbourly relations with India... Pakistan had requested Chinese to settle border issues with them on a number of occasions but the Chinese completely ignored our requests. They were more interested in settling border issues with India. It was only after stubborn refusal of Indians (and even right out insults) to consider Chinese requests that a frustrated China finally decided to settle boundary with Pakistan. The rest is history