Hypothesis: Hypothesis: Should China sell J-8II H/F to N. Korea to replace gaining Fleet

[shuttler]

North Korea does have the money. Everyone thinks they are poor, but that is not entirely correct as they still have the "hard currecly", better than anything else - gold reserves.

I qoute:

North Korea has begun to sell large amounts of gold to China in a bid to tide over its economic crisis, multiple sources familiar with North Korea affairs said Wednesday.
The disposal could be an indication of an imminent economic collapse as it goes against founding leader Kim Il-sung's order to never sell the country's gold, according to the sources.

"Since several months ago, North Korea has begun to sell even its gold," one source said, asking that he not be identified. "Overseas sales of gold are a barometer of whether the North Korean economy is in a crisis or not."

It is the first time that North Korea has sold gold since its leader Kim Jong-un took power in late 2011 following the death of his father Kim Jong-il, the sources added. Kim Il-sung is the current leader's grandfather.

According to South Korean government data, North Korea holds about 2,000 tons of gold reserves worth at least US$8 billion.

N. Korea sells gold in sign of imminent economic collapse: source

Good for the N Koreans
They have also discovered large rare earth reserves

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/NH08Dg01.html

 

[BigDaddyWatch]

J-8 ? I don't think that SAC produces J-8's anymore. The SAC today is producing J-11B, J-11BS and J-15. The J-15S, J-16 and the J-31 are in development. The PLAAF are no longer buying any new J-8's and they are next on the chopping board for the PLAAF fleet after the J-7's. And there are no foreign buyers for the J-8 at this moment. That means that the plane is no longer in production. And i don't think the J-8 will do the North Koreans any good against the modern F-15 Slam Eagle's and F-35's in the future of the South Korean air force. They would need something with more spunk like the J-10B or the J-16 to counter those new South Korean planes. The North Koreans will never get those planes from China. The North Koreans didn't even get the JH-7 Flying Leopards in 2011 when Kim Jong Il ask for it.

On the question rather China should. I would say no. The North Koreans are becoming scary.

 

[2049_Prc]

There was talk of SK uniting all of Korea either with Chinese help or at least Chinese approval, but the deal is new Korea will be neutral in all Chinese affairs and have no American presence.

The Americans won't want to be in South Korea for much longer, even they must admit that having 20,000+ men won't do anything to stop China, all it is, is that it will add 20,000+ body bags almost instantly. The fire power between Americans stationed in Asia and PLA is too big even now, but soon, we will have enough fire power to keep any reinforcements out of Asia.

Let's not forget, the americans are there on the pretence that NK is a threat, once that's gone, they will have no legitimate reason to stay, and even if they don't leave, we will have an excuse to start something.

So korea unification is good for all.

BTW Taiwan is all but settled, once we reach economic maturity, we will unify.

Well, I have to respectfully disagree. Talk is talk while actions speak louder than Words.

NATO promised Russia not to expand in 1990, and look where NATO is today? Knocking on Russian's doors. In China's case, the U.S. has already started to "knock" on Chinese doors.

For instance, Afghanistan. The U.S decided not to withdraw after all. They will keep at least 10.000 troops there.

I think it is very naive to just say that 20,000 U.S. troops are "nothing". 20,000 is indeed 20,000 more than "nothing". Nothing would be 0 = zero.

It's all about military bases and its infrastructure that will stay intact in SK as long as the U.S. haven't pulled out completely.

So you need to learn that the U.S. ALWAYS finds a way to stay somewhere. They even came back to The Phillippines now, after pulling out from there in 1992.

So basically, you have the U.S. forces in Australia, Japan, South Korea/United Korea, Afghanistan and The Phillippines. Please do let me know if I have forgotten any other countries to add to this list.

Unfortunately, I don't have any hopes for any reunification With Taipei, whether or not China reaches economic matury. Taiwanese have aquired different mindset over the past 65 years, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

 

[bolo]

Said Chinese officials themselves.



http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/KOR-01-070813.html
Wikileaks cables reveal China 'ready to abandon North Korea' | World news | The Guardian




Why China is afraid of North Korea - The Week

The reason China help DPRK is for its own stragedical purpose, but this partnership is becoming more and more counter productive. The partnership between PRC and ROK is based on pragmatism, and the relationship is depended on mutural benefits. So as a pragmatic leaders as what PRC has right now, who would you choose as your friend.

The Guardian article you quote, well, first of all it's the Guardian, take it with a grain of salt. Secondly, any intelligent statesman can/should use Wikileaks as a tool to misinform and disinform. Here is the article you posted:

"WikiLeaks: Better not believe it
How far might the new Sino-South Korean rapport go? Maybe all the way. On November 29, 2010 the top front page story in the Guardian, a leading British daily paper, bore the striking headline: "Wikileaks cables reveal China 'ready to abandon North Korea'" The sub-heading expanded and explained: "Leaked dispatches show Beijing is frustrated with military actions of 'spoiled child' and increasingly favors reunified Korea."

Really? No, not really. On closer inspection this was just gossip. A particular official known to be an outspoken hardliner - Chun Yung-woo, senior foreign policy secretary to the then ROK president, Lee Myung-bak - was telling the US ambassador in Seoul, over breakfast, some grumbles about the DPRK he'd heard from low-level Chinese officials on the sidelines of the six-party talks - in 2008, two years earlier! So this was no bombshell, but tittle-tattle.

It was also very misleading, since in fact China's line was the exact opposite. In May 2010, when South Korea accused the North of torpedoing one of its warships in March (46 young sailors drowned), Beijing angered Seoul by refusing to condemn Pyonyang - which denied responsibility. More broadly: From about 2008, when Kim Jong-il's health first became a concern, all signs indicate that China took a strategic decision to grit its teeth and prop up the Kim regime, no matter what. Trade (see above) and visits both rose markedly.

Why would China choose so? Old friendship - "like lips and teeth", it used to be said - was the least of it. Old-timers who valued wartime comradeship no longer held power in China. Their pragmatic successors were impatient with the DPRK as an ungrateful loose cannon.

So why support it? For very cogent reasons. Seen from Beijing, if there is one thing worse than North Korea, then it is no North Korea. Both the process and outcome of any regime collapse in the DPRK look like nightmares for the PRC. Thousands of refugees would flee across the long (1,416 kilometer) and porous river border into China. There might be fighting, and China could get drawn in.

The nightmare scenario would be if China intervened, but so did the US and South Korea. A superpower clash in Korea, again? One Korean War was bad enough. (Chinese casualties were huge: 145,000 deaths, 25,000 missing, 260,000 wounded.) As for the outcome: If Korea reunifies like Germany and the DPRK vanishes, then the ROK, a staunch US ally which hosts 28,000 US troops, would share a border with China. Not good.

Yet this calculus is not set in stone. What if North Korea refuses to change, but continues to tax China's and everyone's patience with nuclear defiance and provocations? Or on the other side of the coin, a smart China should also cultivate South Korea and try to lure it away from quite so tight an embrace of the US. Many in Seoul fret that the ROK is punching below its weight on the global stage, and yearn for the foreign policy autonomy of a Turkey or a Brazil.

Eventually, if North Korea is stupid enough to remain obdurately recidivist, China may have to choose. Thinking strategically and long-term, which of the Koreas does it make economic and political sense for China to have as its ally or at least a good friend? If the question is put like that, the answer is obvious. So Kim Jong-eun had better not push China too far.

If Beijing ever decides it has had enough and cuts the cord, that would be the end of the DPRK. But if Kim sees the light and opts for peace and reform, there could still be two Koreas for a while to come. Northeast Asia's future, and his country's and his own, all hinge on how he decides. That visit to Mao Anying's grave suggests that Kim knows which side his bread is buttered.

Aidan Foster-Carter is honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University in the UK, and a freelance consultant, writer and broadcaster on Korean affairs. A regular visitor to the peninsula, he has followed North Korean affairs for 45 years.

A Chinese translation of an earlier version of part of this article was commissioned by and first appeared in SingTao Daily (Hong Kong), issue of 27-28 July 2013. Used by kind permission."

The article is wishy washy, back and fourth, maybe, a little bit, but not really, blah , blah...at best the answer is "no", China is not abandoning NK.

NK is a buffer zone for China. China will support NK over SK, if not, it will be a bad chess move on China's part, and maybe a costly one. 30,000 US troops across China's border may not seem alot, but combine those with advanced military hardware, missiles, etc and you have a different ball game.

Some Chinese members tend to underestimate the US' military strength, but luckily CPC members are smarter than that.

As long as SK is still a bitch of the US and their people continues to believe in Christianity, China should not abandon NK. Virtually every foreign policies SK have implemented have countered China. Recently, they claim China's ADIZ overlaps their ADIZ, and will not call for planes to release their flight details to China. Not to mention there are a growing number of extreme right-wing S Koreans claiming revisionist history against China.

Until SK is positively pro-China, we will not support the south kimchis.

 

[帅的一匹]

I am a Christian, you gonna kick me out of China?

 

[Nan Yang]

Well, I have to respectfully disagree. Talk is talk while actions speak louder than Words.

NATO promised Russia not to expand in 1990, and look where NATO is today? Knocking on Russian's doors. In China's case, the U.S. has already started to "knock" on Chinese doors.

For instance, Afghanistan. The U.S decided not to withdraw after all. They will keep at least 10.000 troops there.

I think it is very naive to just say that 20,000 U.S. troops are "nothing". 20,000 is indeed 20,000 more than "nothing". Nothing would be 0 = zero.

It's all about military bases and its infrastructure that will stay intact in SK as long as the U.S. haven't pulled out completely.

So you need to learn that the U.S. ALWAYS finds a way to stay somewhere. They even came back to The Phillippines now, after pulling out from there in 1992.

So basically, you have the U.S. forces in Australia, Japan, South Korea/United Korea, Afghanistan and The Phillippines. Please do let me know if I have forgotten any other countries to add to this list.

US bases all around China is not new. They have been there since the end of WW2 almost 70 years ago. Did it stop China rise ? You can contain a small country like Cuba but you cannot contain a country with the 2nd largest economy in the world with a huge backdoor to Central Asia, South East Asia and South Asia.

Unfortunately, I don't have any hopes for any reunification With Taipei, whether or not China reaches economic matury. Taiwanese have aquired different mindset over the past 65 years, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Does it matters ?

First of all pretty much the entire world says Taiwan is part of China. That part is done.
Secondly, Taiwan is in the process of being integrated into China whether they like it or not.
Integrated includes economic, transportation, communication, financial etc. A peace treaty would be the only thing left.
Finally, It is only a matter of time that China will break through the first island chain and totally cover Taiwan and beyond. US would be push further out to Guam.

By that time, Taiwan would then be just like Hong Kong except Taiwan would have its own military.

 

[jhungary]

maybebits a little bit strange that you hear this from me, but China cannot affordbto let NK go, not because they needed buffer anymore but purely because of one man, Kim Jun Un

think about it, kim is a madman, and he have nuclear weapon and he isbnot afraid to use it, the dat China withdrew support from the birth and direct to the south, this is the very move that will kill the North Korea, worse, in Kim’s eyes, he willbthink Chinese betray them.

People need to know this, Kimbis just like Hong Wu in this fkrum, except he is the real deal and have control tobnuclear weapon, if North Korea have to gobdown, there are no guarantee that Kim will notbuse his stockpile to their mortal enemy and their new betrayer. That’s Chinese and south korea, both of it was in range with NK nuke. That isbwhy China cannot withdrew support from the North. Its abnuclear blackmail

 

[MightyDragon]

China can sell J-8II to any country... it is just an outdated fighter!

 

[bolo]

North Korea does have the money. Everyone thinks they are poor, but that is not entirely correct as they still have the "hard currecly", better than anything else - gold reserves.

I qoute:

North Korea has begun to sell large amounts of gold to China in a bid to tide over its economic crisis, multiple sources familiar with North Korea affairs said Wednesday.
The disposal could be an indication of an imminent economic collapse as it goes against founding leader Kim Il-sung's order to never sell the country's gold, according to the sources.

"Since several months ago, North Korea has begun to sell even its gold," one source said, asking that he not be identified. "Overseas sales of gold are a barometer of whether the North Korean economy is in a crisis or not."

It is the first time that North Korea has sold gold since its leader Kim Jong-un took power in late 2011 following the death of his father Kim Jong-il, the sources added. Kim Il-sung is the current leader's grandfather.

According to South Korean government data, North Korea holds about 2,000 tons of gold reserves worth at least US$8 billion.

N. Korea sells gold in sign of imminent economic collapse: source

Gold is better than any fiat currency in the world. Even if NK did not have the money, China can still provide them with soft loans and discount the old planes

i honestly think that china should remain contended after screwing up PAF by selling their useless junk jf17, plz chinese , dont f**K up north korea too

NK is a trusted friend of China.

 

[Nan Yang]

maybebits a little bit strange that you hear this from me, but China cannot affordbto let NK go, not because they needed buffer anymore but purely because of one man, Kim Jun Un

think about it, kim is a madman, and he have nuclear weapon and he isbnot afraid to use it, the dat China withdrew support from the birth and direct to the south, this is the very move that will kill the North Korea, worse, in Kim’s eyes, he willbthink Chinese betray them.

People need to know this, Kimbis just like Hong Wu in this fkrum, except he is the real deal and have control tobnuclear weapon, if North Korea have to gobdown, there are no guarantee that Kim will notbuse his stockpile to their mortal enemy and their new betrayer. That’s Chinese and south korea, both of it was in range with NK nuke. That isbwhy China cannot withdrew support from the North. Its abnuclear blackmail

Every country in the 6 party talks have their own interest. All different.

US wants a regime change
China wants stability. No collapse, no war, no nuclear weapon
Japan wants no unification.
Russia has no interest other then to keep an eye on US-Japan
S Korea pretty much the same as China
N Korea wants a peace treaty with US

 

[ephone]

Why should China sell anything to that SOB???

 

[2049_Prc]

US bases all around China is not new. They have been there since the end of WW2 almost 70 years ago. Did it stop China rise ? You can contain a small country like Cuba but you cannot contain a country with the 2nd largest economy in the world with a huge backdoor to Central Asia, South East Asia and South Asia.

Does it matters ?

First of all pretty much the entire world says Taiwan is part of China. That part is done.
Secondly, Taiwan is in the process of being integrated into China whether they like it or not.
Integrated includes economic, transportation, communication, financial etc. A peace treaty would be the only thing left.
Finally, It is only a matter of time that China will break through the first island chain and totally cover Taiwan and beyond. US would be push further out to Guam.

By that time, Taiwan would then be just like Hong Kong except Taiwan would have its own military.

They have been there since WW2, exactly my point. Even when USSR collapsed, they were still intact, and Guess what? They are more intact today than ever before.

Not only are those bases intact, but the U.S. has increased the number of bases, which is an escalation since WW2 or since 1991 if you will.

China is NO Super Man, and cannot afford to lose allies, no matter how small, weak or "crazy" they might be in someones eyes. China does NOT have the luxury to lose allies.

It is about to stop China's rise NOW. The U.S. has been busy in the Middle East for the past 12 years, but that is about to change now.

China is still not even Close to achieving its potential, yet the U.S. has already decided to stop China. To be honest, the U.S. is doing a good job. They have allies everywhere while you argue for China to abandon North Korea.

Just try to imagine what kind of Message it sends to other potential allies seing China abandoning North Korea.

If South Korea is serious and wants to have good relationship With China, then they need to kick out U.S. forces from SK.

China does NOT have troops in North Korea so why does the U.S. still have troops in South Korea? Imagine China sending 25.000 soldiers to North Korea. The U.S. and SK would protest big time. You on the other hand, want China to "lose" North Korea for basically nothing in Return. It just doesn't work that way.

Regarding Your reply about Taiwan. WHEN and IF China achieve what you are talking about, only THEN you can start "losing" North Korea. Doing so BEFORE China has any Control over First Island Chain is totally useless; not to mention Dangerous.

 

[Nan Yang]

^^^^^
I do not think China is abandoning N Korea. China is just pulling S Korea into its orbit by putting pressure on N Korea. The current Korean women President will never shake hand with Abe who had said that comfort women were prostitutes. This will break the S Korea - Japan link. S Korean and China relationship has never been better. The ADIZ is just a small overblown distraction.

US having the bases in Korea and Japan no longer make sense. Today these bases are well within range of China’s ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. These bases are practically hostages in time of tension. I think US will eventually move further away to Darwin, Australia or back to Guam.

China on the other hand do not need a base in N Korea. China is just next door.