How much of Pakistan do the Taliban actually control

[Elmo]

This should be helpful for those not familiar with the political geography of these areas.

Your map shows Buner, Chitral, Swabi as being under Taliban control. That's incorrect.

So are Charsadda, Peshawar, Mardan, Kohat and Karak misclassified.

Also as I posted earlier, not all tribal agencies in FATA are under the control of the Taliban.

It's again an exaggeration of the actual area under the Taliban.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Well for the sake of argument & granting that premise, what area's you would contest or dispute?

Please see my responses to Nadia and S-2.

Moreover, isn't that a self defeating exercise with respect to the overriding issue at hand? Sugar coating a reality that the Taliban i.e any Anti-Pakistani order exists on the soil of Pakistan should be incensing enough.

FTR, I don't consider the people behind LWJ to have any kind of bias with respect to Pakistan because that would be inherently a self-defeating. A failed Pakistan is NOT in our self interest. That should be beyond obvious by now.

Sugar coating isn't the point - accurate analysis of Taliban strength in different agencies definitely is.

I have largely read only Roggio from LWJ, and my opinions were reflective of him.

While the LWJ may not want to see Pakistan fail as a state, the anti-PA/ISI narrative fits in with the propaganda out of the US administration (courtesy 'anonymous officials'), of vilifying the security services of Pakistan on the basis of negative distorted and skewed reporting related to their operations and activities.

His work is the equivalent of the 'US Army shoots Pregnant woman in stomach' - usually a heavily biased interpretation of events.

 

[AchtungSpitfire]

Please see my responses to Nadia and S-2.

Sugar coating isn't the point - accurate analysis of Taliban strength in different agencies definitely is.

I have largely read only Roggio from LWJ, and my opinions were reflective of him.

While the LWJ may not want to see Pakistan fail as a state, the anti-PA/ISI narrative fits in with the propaganda out of the US administration (courtesy 'anonymous officials'), of vilifying the security services of Pakistan on the basis of negative distorted and skewed reporting related to their operations and activities.

His work is the equivalent of the 'US Army shoots Pregnant woman in stomach' - usually a heavily biased interpretation of events.

I'd love to see referenced rebuttals especially w.r.t to the Bruner region that has been prominently featured on this site. Either way, that is really beyond the point at hand.

As to the LWJ and you contention of "Anti PA/ISI" narrative being complicit within our whole outlook vis-a-vis Pakistan, its hard to rebutt such a loaded accusation. You give no credence to the mounting reality that the ISI isn't as forthcoming by any stretch or the fact that the Pakistani Army just *might* have Pan-Islamist sympathizers? Plausible deniability means jack isht in this context.

I'm going to just beg the question then by asking why one of the most formidable Armies in Asia seems so woefully ineffective dealing with the Taliban on it's own sovereign soil? Can we agree that ISAF/NATO and the USA are working with the Pakistani state in re-establishing its sovereign dictate over these area's?

I see no reason why these conspiratorial theories should gain any serious credence seeing that we are beholden to the tune of billions in seeing that Pakistan and its Agencies succeed in rooting out the Taliban. Existentially we are your biggest underwriters. If not, then who?

Talk about biting the hand that feeds.

 

[S-2]

"the anti-PA/ISI narrative fits in with the propaganda out of the US administration (courtesy 'anonymous officials'), of vilifying the security services of Pakistan on the basis of negative distorted and skewed reporting related to their operations and activities."

His work fits with the U.S. gov't.

His work is the equivalent of the 'US Army shoots Pregnant woman in stomach' - usually a heavily biased interpretation of events.

So too my government, eh?

But YOU know better.

From Michigan.

I stayed out of it the other day but I think Muse is on to something with you. The change has been noticeable since the WAB days. A.M. if you are reflective of your emerging leadership then I sense no substantive change away from your pseudo-embrace of islamism which now exists throughout your gov't bureaucracy.

Your state is now being called to task by the two polar ends. Which do you choose? I ask because either has the ability to move you off center but only one is determined to do so. They're now at war within your lands.

The outcome of that shall determine our reaction and it's becoming increasingly clear that our best recourse may be to allow your failure and then defeat the victor.

There's now little we can do to prevent it anyway. All this talk of civil and military aid is too little too late for the necessary substantive change that would be required to "win hearts and minds".

Nope. You'll be beating the snot out of your people soon to hang on to what you have and the lines within Pakistan shall be stark and clear indeed.

Luck y'all.

 

[Rabbit.Rabbit]

A lot of the areas which are marked as "under Taliban control" are not officially recognized as such by the GoP.
If you consider full-fledged Sharia as Taliban control then yes only a couple of districts.
But, if you consider the areas where the government writ effectlively no longer applies, then that map is more or less accurate.

 

[S-2]

The map is generally fine and disputing such is quibbling. N. and S. Waziristan now very justifiably have a new name-the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan, and it is called such by these lads.

I suppose Khyber is not "controlled". It's disputed and I'm sure of that because we fight our convoys through. Some even make it.

Kurram isn't a problem at all, I believe. I'm sure that Abu Zolfiqir (a shia muslim from there) promises that they'd all be dead as they sure as hell aren't like the sikhs being run out of Orakzai.

Oh yeah, sorry. The government promises that they're going to take care of that. Sure they are...

Anybody wish to travel to Tank? How about Paradise? You know, SWAT? I think Chitral is prettier. Anybody up for a trip?

The west is gone and we didn't even mention Baluchistan.

 

[Rajkumar]

i see solution of this problem is 'Strong political willpower'. PA is very capable to root out these low life but to do that PA need to leave their mental sympathy baggage towards Muslims.

second, you need a PM who can take harsh decisions like indira gandhi. i think after 1971, Pakistani politicians lost their sight of future and cant do the things which are beneficial in future but may hurt the sentiments of common masses in short run.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I'd love to see referenced rebuttals especially w.r.t to the Bruner region that has been prominently featured on this site. Either way, that is really beyond the point at hand.

I think we have already pointed out why his maps are inaccurate.

Prior instances have included a distorted and skewed reporting of events related to the PA. Buner had nothing to do with the PA.

You give no credence to the mounting reality that the ISI isn't as forthcoming by any stretch or the fact that the Pakistani Army just *might* have Pan-Islamist sympathizers? Plausible deniability means jack isht in this context.

And how forthcoming is the CIA? Is that a bit of an oxymoron, expecting an intelligence agency of being 'forthcoming'? This isn't about plausible deniability as much as an absolute lack of any evidence indicating complicity.

I'm going to just beg the question then by asking why one of the most formidable Armies in Asia seems so woefully ineffective dealing with the Taliban on it's own sovereign soil?

By the same standard the most powerful armies in the world havn't been capable of stabilizing Afghanistan.

I see no reason why these conspiratorial theories should gain any serious credence seeing that we are beholden to the tune of billions in seeing that Pakistan and its Agencies succeed in rooting out the Taliban. Existentially we are your biggest underwriters. If not, then who?

The 'conspiracy theory' here is suggesting that a nation is having its soldiers and citizens killed and has 'conspired' to lose upwards of 30 billion dollars in economic losses in the process.

The arrogance from some in the West is astounding - you can talk about ten billion and say that validates your 'good intentions' and claim critiquing your methods and polices amounts to 'conspiracy theories', while leveling all sorts of accusations at a nation fighting this war on its own soil, that has lost billions and thousands of soldiers and civilians.

How absurd.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

His work fits with the U.S. gov't.

And the 'anonymous sources' have shown the US governments to be full of drivel.

So too my government, eh?

Indeed - little evidence, tons of vilification of Pakistani security forces.

But YOU know better.

From Michigan.

From the facts available, US obfuscation and dissembling is apparent, and in the absence of any evidence, there is no reason to believe a government fighting a war on foreign soil that has a minimal impact on its citizens and economy, vs a government fighting a war on her soil that has suffered thousands of casualties, remains at the risk of suffering thousands more, and has lost billions.

I stayed out of it the other day but I think Muse is on to something with you.

Pleas stay out of this now as well. When I need your or Muse's opinion of me I'll ask.

Till then this is unwelcome and useless off topic drivel.

Your state is now being called to task by the two polar ends.

Indeed, and the lack of a coherent policy to deal with the situation does not automatically imply that everyone in Pakistan is in bed with the Taliban.

 

[S-2]

"And the 'anonymous sources' have shown the US governments to be full of drivel"

Well, we've reached a "mexican standoff" of my gov't's drivel against your gov't. drivel. Can we toss other nation's driveling thoughts in such as Afghanistan, Canada, and Great Britain too?

Sure.

We can do that.

You are utterly defensive and totally irrational. There are serious problems in any gov't that justifies proxy warfare for ANY reason over ANY issue. If you haven't grasped that salient fact then neither you personally nor your government can be good partners in the mission being conducted in Afghanistan by forty one nations besides America's afghani hosts

Essentially, I gather that all of them think you're pissing on their efforts. I'm sure it's simply "drivel".

As to blood, we've traveled far to die for a cause that virtually all our soldiers believe in. I'm sorry for the fine soldiers in your army whose bravery for a common cause exceeds the government, citizens, and civilian leaders of your country. They did, however, die on their own soil. If a soldier is to fight on his own soil and not be victorious, it's best to die.

Will you be victorious A.M. or do you need civil and military aid without restrictions and a U.S. sponsored plebiscite in Kashmir before you suddenly get interested?

Nobody really cares. I don't think aid can help you anyway. There's a 10% surcharge right off the top once it crosses your country's lines. Sunk costs in that case or throwing good money after bad. Wouldn't be the first time with Pakistan.

Keep your "contacts". You'll be needing them I suspect.

 

[Rabbit.Rabbit]

No Agnostic there's no conspiracy theory. Pakistan's handling of this problem is almost completely devoid of any manner of planning or grand strategy.

 

[S-2]

"Indeed, and the lack of a coherent policy to deal with the situation does not automatically imply that everyone in Pakistan is in bed with the Taliban."

I'm confident that Rabzon, All-Green, and fatman17 aren't. Others live outside your country of whom I'm equally confident. There are some on this board whom I simply don't know well enough that also might meet that criteria above.

Beyond that?

Well beyond that there's the more salient point that you don't have to sleep with the enemy to abet him. Your country's silence is deafening and in that vacumn of thought pass the taliban with seamless ease.

You have been utterly outmanuevered in an information war and no amount of civil or military aid can overcome that message at this point. This isn't about money. It's completely about moral determination and your civil and military leadership are as bankrupt there as your coffers.

 

[Xeric]

People talk here of failure, misjudgments, moles, being afraid, lacking a grand strategy, etc etc, i wonder how exactly it can also fit in for ISAF.

The mightiest military machine of world, who spend 50% of world's defence budget on its soldiers, whose defence spendings are even more than the total of the top 20 defence spenders, have failed to achieve any results except that the world today is more dangerous than ever before.

Forgot to the mention the time period involved.

Interestingly it has the guts to blame a force designed conventionally for conventional war of its failures.

The force who has the guts to face the enemy in the eye and the force that don't duck will sitting in front of the command module of a Reaper or Predator drone.

The force who have suffered the most and have done the most, on ground, nit sitting in air conditioned tents.

A piece of advice, get us some results (except killing innocents both inside Pakistan and Afghanistan) then we might pay heed to your slander.

 

[S-2]

"...have failed to achieve any results except that the world today is more dangerous than ever before."

This isn't true. We succeeded in kicking your minions across your border in 2001. I'm sorry that they ran faster than we could attack but they clearly knew where their safety was assured.

And so it was. Where was your army? Do you not defend ALL of your borders at a time of national crisis-especially your western borders as it becomes certain that America is going to war?

So we know that we've kept an Afghan government not of your choosing in power for seven years. Since we'll be there another 15-20, that will likely continue. Kiss your strategic space away.

"The force who has the guts to face the enemy in the eye and the force that don't duck will sitting in front of the command module of a Reaper or Predator drone."

Most of those are flown where we can't seem to find any fighting forces to contest the enemy-Pakistan.

Over in Afghanistan, our lads are having a fine time in their air conditioned night-time exercise gymnasium.

Does your army leave garrison after dark? I've heard they had an odd habit of returning each night up in SWAT and down in Waziristan before heading east after Mumbai. Home by dark. Is that true?

Perhaps you're satisfied with your army's performance. I don't know. I wouldn't know why though. Dying proudly for your country really isn't the objective unless it advances the greater good. Have your 1600 military martyrs done so for your country? I don't think your leadership have served their memory well at all, personally, but that's just me.

enigma 947, I could give a ratz azz if your army is trained for conventional war. I'd strongly encourage your peers and you to engage in some new operational horizons real damned quick. We're not calling a "time-out" while you get your tactical act together. You just might have to do a bit of OJT.

I know if they were Indians you'd be charging with pitchforks, brooms, mudclods, bricks, anything you could lay your hands on without regard to "collaterral damage".

Not now.

Makes a guy wonder how bad you wish to "win"?

Here's my suggestion-sit tight and DO NOT DEPLOY WEST FROM PUNJAB WITH YOUR ARMY.

No need. They'll be introducing themselves to you in Punjab anyday now.

Thanks.

 

[Elmo]

@Achtung spitfire: I'm going to just beg the question then by asking why one of the most formidable Armies in Asia seems so woefully ineffective dealing with the Taliban on it's own sovereign soil? Can we agree that ISAF/NATO and the USA are working with the Pakistani state in re-establishing its sovereign dictate over these area's? I see no reason why these conspiratorial theories should gain any serious credence seeing that we are beholden to the tune of billions in seeing that Pakistan and its Agencies succeed in rooting out the Taliban. Existentially we are your biggest underwriters. If not, then who? Talk about biting the hand that feeds.

— I would disagree that the “ISAF/NATO and the USA are working with the Pakistani state in re-establishing its sovereign dictate over these area's.” You might be beholden to the tunes of millions but is the effort really sincere. As for long term thinking, what were the Americans doing when they were funding the same jihadis who are now creating havoc. As for biting the hand that feeds, I would say that you are highly mistaken. It’s not only the giving away part that the West is playing, it is using the soil of Pakistan to engage in a war on “terror” whose credibility is highly widely questioned.


@S-2: Well beyond that there's the more salient point that you don't have to sleep with the enemy to abet him. Your country's silence is deafening and in that vacumn of thought pass the taliban with seamless ease.You have been utterly outmanuevered in an information war and no amount of civil or military aid can overcome that message at this point. This isn't about money. It's completely about moral determination and your civil and military leadership are as bankrupt there as your coffers.

—I couldn’t agree more with the determination bit!

@ enigma947: People talk here of failure, misjudgments, moles, being afraid, lacking a grand strategy, etc etc, i wonder how exactly it can also fit in for ISAF. The mightiest military machine of world, who spend 50% of world's defence budget on its soldiers, whose defence spendings are even more than the total of the top 20 defence spenders, have failed to achieve any results except that the world today is more dangerous than ever before.

— War can never bring peace. History, man, history 

@S-2
@Agnostic Muslim: Mostly agree. However, they have largely been chased out of Bajaur and Mohmand (though not eliminated) so I would put those two agencies in the 'Khyber category'. None of the affected agencies (or for that matter some of the settled districts) will really move out of the 'Khyber category' so long as S&N Waziristan remain outside government writ, and the TTP-S does not lay down arms.
@Rabbit.Rabbit: A lot of the areas which are marked as "under Taliban control" are not officially recognized as such by the GoP. If you consider full-fledged Sharia as Taliban control then yes only a couple of districts. But, if you consider the areas where the government writ effectlively no longer applies, then that map is more or less accurate.


— FATA can be divided into three blocks geographically: One in the north comprising of Bajaur and Mohmand, a central one of Kurram, Khyber and Orakzai, and a third in the south with Waziristan agencies. The worst-hit areas are those in the north and south blocks.

South (Waziristan agencies): Serves as the headquarters for TTP under Baitullah Mehsud. The influx of the Taliban started in 2002 with the US invasion of Afghanistan. Interestingly it was in 2003 that an operation was conducted here — this was also the first time that PAF planes patrolled the tribal areas. Has seen numerous drone attacks.

North (Bajaur/Mohmand): Strongholds governed by naib amirs of the TTP. The Bajaur operation started in August 2008 went on till late last year but was unsuccessful in flushing out the Taliban. Mohmand is the only agency where the leadership is derived from the locals (naib amir Omer Khalid belongs to the Safi tribe there).


Central (Kurram and Orakzai): Predominantly sectarian strife. While Kurram has seen violence on and off Orakzai has been largely peaceful. Another reason that Orakzai is the last to be affected is that it does not share any border with Afghanistan — the other six agencies do.

Central (Khyber): Mostly infighting between Deobandis and Barelvis, though Lahskar-e-Islam (Deobandi) is alleged to have backing from the Taliban to fight against Ansarul Islam.