How long will Russia last?

[ThunderCat]

i don't think its deniable that USSR was dominated by russia and was essentially, russian in every way. nor is it deniable that USSR had achievements for its time that neither the preceeding Russian Empire nor the following Russian Federation were able to produce.

Not really. The Soviet Union had many people contributing to it. I believe many senior officers in the Soviet military were Georgian and Azerbaijani.

The head of the Soviet space program was Azeri.

 

[chauism]

Not really. The Soviet Union had many people contributing to it. I believe many senior officers in the Soviet military were Georgian and Azerbaijani.

The head of the Soviet space program was Azeri.

Don't forget Stalin himself is a Georgian.

 

[TorontoNoctis]

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Russia. In fact, Russia is in better hands than China. The speaker in the OP fundamentally does not understand economics.

First let's address the idea in the OP that "entrepreneurs are people who invent things and using natural resources is economic weakness." It is a fundamental misunderstanding of capitalism that capitalism rewards the smartest, most intelligent individuals. Instead, capitalism rewards those who are most ambitious. So a strong, capitalistic economy does not necessarily have many engineers producing Windows and iPhones, but simply many ambitious individuals. Enter the Russian oligarchs. Besides, the utility of many Western style entreprenuers is questionable (who needs Windows and iPhones? If they disappeared tomorrow there would always be Linux and other devices.) Some would prefer Russian entreprenuers, who base their fortune on resources necessary to live on.

Much of an individual's economic success is about arbitrage. Take from one place then sell at another, at a higher price. From this you can conclude that entrepreneurs, far from being the restrictive definition by the speaker in the OP of an engineer who "invents stuff" share several key qualities:

1. They are ambitious.

2. They got there first, before anyone else.

3. They understand or own key routes of transport between manufacturing and consumer.

Next, let's address the implied idea in the OP that because Russian industries have privatized, it is a sign of weakness in the Russian economy. First, Putin's style of privatization is not Western style; companies are expected to advance national interests or suffer a bullet in the head. Second, the main weakness of central economies is they cannot anticipate nor do they take advantage of discrete units of knowledge available only to an individual. Certain facts and statistics cannot be gathered by a central authority, processed then an economy planned, without severe economic consequences. All this is a fancy way of saying that capitalism is the road to success and central planning leads to serfdom. Those who do not understand I suggest reading Hayek's "Use of Knowledge in Society."

Finally, let's address the idea of corruption being bad for an economy. No bribes is very much a Western ideal. Perhaps we all want to live in a society with no bribing and no underhanded deals. But China is quite successful and you can easily bribe local officials. The Chinese corruption problem is systemic and far greater than the Russian problem (the main problem in China being the central government cannot easily squash corrupt local officials.) So corruption by itself is not necessarily a sign of a bad economy. What exactly are bribes? A bribe is currency changing hands. In fact, bribes are economic activity. So bribes have nothing to do with economics. Nobody wants to live in a country where another person can bribe someone and get what they want before someone else in line, but that is a social issue and not an economic one. In fact all corruption could mean is infrastructure and laws have not been enacted yet to collect "service fees."

So in summary,

1. It is not necessarily a sign of weakness in an economy to get rich off of natural resources.

2. Large companies successfully privatizing is not a sign of weakness, but in fact a sign of strength.

3. Entrepreneurs are not just Western style IT engineers who make software or useless gadgets.

4. Corruption is not necessarily a sign of a weak economy.

Russia is stronger than ever and it's time that Western observers accept that.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

But China is quite successful and you can easily bribe local officials.

No, you can bribe Russian local officer quite easily.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5983401.ece

Yes, PRC is corrupted, but it cannot openly accept bribery like that.

Just mind your own business, China's doomsayer.

 

[Tshering22]

No, you can bribe Russian local officer quite easily.

Russian police code of conduct bans bribery, swearing and drinking - Times Online

Yes, PRC is corrupted, but it cannot openly accept bribery like that.

Just mind your own business, China's doomsayer.

Who isn't? It is sort of an endemic disease for Eastern hemisphere. I'd say that PRC has better control on crime and corruption than India and Russia combined. That law and order stuff is really appreciable.

 

[mivy]

Russia will soon find out that USA is more trustworthy ally and will soon form an alliance with USA to contain against the rise of China.

Mark my words, Russia will finally join into EU.

In my opinion, Russia herself will not be a trustworthy ally at all, neither will be USA, We can easily find the fact from their history. Just as the saying goes:Not the forever enemy, does not have the forever friend, only has the forever benefit. Actually,in ancient China, long-term friendship bewteen countries exists and China valued the trust with other countries, but quite different from Western pattern,if you look into the history of China.

However, this political tradition is ruined as China now becomes a modern Country infulenced greatly by Western countries(many neibour countries break away from Sinosphere,which is no longer welcome).

 

[mivy]

then China is what...a shame for humanity..!!!. every Chinese knows this.... if this is how u understand in ur language....

and ur pathetic language and post not withstanding....Russia is a great country and one of two powers in this world.... ur pathetic jealously of Russia is not going to have any effect on reality....

Russia will not fall as long as she has the largest reserve of nuclear weapons, and it will be difficult to tell the future of Russia, but it is certain that India will not become the superpower in the short future. Many Indians have not realized that they are in the same boat with China. The western countries do not welcome a powerful India which can challenge their leadership either.

In fact, many Chinese don't consider India as major threat but a friend
which is also a developing country, especially for official media.
Do you know that China government is for India to fight for the permanent membership in UN security council, while it is unacceptable that India want to attain the membership along with Japan.

 

[logic]

Re: How long will Russia last?

This question is very vague.

As a piece of land inhabited by human beings it will be there till the end of the earth.

But the regime or ideology or concept of government might change over long period of time and this can happen to any country.

 

[canadakz]

to be frank, as long as Russia stays strong economically and militarily, it will last. Soviet union collapsed due to its unbalanced economy and it ethnic makeup. Only 43% of the USSR population are russian which means that not a single ethnicity represents the majority. Russia on the other hand, like China, is a country built on the foundation of a single ethnicity and culture, so, unless foreign power can conquer it (in the case of north and south korea, east and west germany), it will stay united. India might not be able to maintain its land with a muslim majority since the ration of muslim to hindu is like 1 to 6, but the identity of india will survive unless the indian race perish which is something that will only happen in a disaster like "2012". although china also has a complicate ethnic makeup, out of 1.3 billion chinese around 1.25 billion are hang chinese which makes the hang race an absolute majority.
That said, i want to point out that Pakistan and india has long been one country. the only reason for their separation is because the british empire, seeing it can no longer maintain its colonial rule, tries to divide its colonies into as many pieces as possible and creating tension between those colonies so that they will focus on fighting each other instead of the UK.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Longer then Israel

 

[Hafizzz]

Zakaria, author and host of CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS," spoke to CNN this week. Here is an edited transcript:

CNN: The Obama administration has indicated they want to reset the relationship with Russia from the Cold War mindset. Do you think that is a good idea?

Fareed Zakaria: Yes. Russia is a major power, spanning three continents, with thousands of nuclear warheads. It is also a prickly nationalistic country. So dealing with it means giving it some respect. There are lots of areas where deals can be struck with them -- such as nuclear arms -- and the Obama administration is doing the right thing in tackling those. I would only caution that Russia is a weird great power, one who's basic economy is not very impressive and getting weaker not stronger over time. So, we shouldn't pin too many hopes on a U.S.-Russian partnership.

CNN: Why are there so many Russian billionaires? One just bought the New Jersey Nets and there seem to be many on the Forbes list.

Fareed Zakaria: It's a sign of the weakness of the Russian economy. Every one of them is a natural resource billionaire -- their fortunes derive from oil, natural gas, nickel, copper, aluminum. These were assets of the Soviet state that were privatized and some Russians ended up with the lion's share. There are few real entrepreneurial fortunes in Russia, despite having had many engineers. My own suspicion is that many of the scientifically trained Russians left Russia in the 1990s, most ending up in Israel -- which has had a tech boom based on the talents of its Russian immigrants. (Israel today, only excels in a few areas, including agriculture and radar systems.)

CNN: There appears to be close ties between these billionaires/oligarchs and the Russian government. Is that causing political problems in the country?

Fareed Zakaria: There are ties, but the balance of power has shifted. The oligarchs are now distinctly subordinate to the government. Putin's first great power shift was to assert the power of the Russian state -- over the oligarchs. He has continued to consolidate power and at this point, while the oligarchs are very rich, they exist at the pleasure of the state -- and they know it.

CNN: President Dimitry Medvedev has admitted to the corruption problem. Why is he not able to do anything about it?

Fareed Zakaria: Two reasons. First, the rot is deep. So many elements of the Russian government are corrupt and are implicated in this almost mafia-like system of rule that it's not easy to change. They quietly subvert any efforts at reform. They have allies throughout the government at all levels, so even if the directive comes from the top, it never actually gets implemented. Second, it remains unclear how much power Medvedev has. He seems to say all the right things, but his words are rarely followed by action. He may have some influence, but it still appears that the "deep state" that actually rules Russia is run by Vladimir Putin and his coterie of advisers.

Russia frustrated with Iran but unlikely to fully support sanctions - CNN.com

It's Manifest Destiny that you guys should surpass Russia in the next decade. But, instead of China's rapid progress being the only factor, one has to take Russia's stagnancy into account. More importantly, what will be the military fate of India if its daddy retires?

Hope Russia will last forever because the world needs Russia to counter balance the Imperial USA.

 

[kan]

Russia will not fall as long as she has the largest reserve of nuclear weapons, and it will be difficult to tell the future of Russia, but it is certain that India will not become the superpower in the short future. Many Indians have not realized that they are in the same boat with China. The western countries do not welcome a powerful India which can challenge their leadership either.

In fact, many Chinese don't consider India as major threat but a friend
which is also a developing country, especially for official media.
Do you know that China government is for India to fight for the permanent membership in UN security council, while it is unacceptable that India want to attain the membership along with Japan.

Even China cannot see a Powerful India. China supports us but without a Veto Power.

 

[somebozo]

When will China take democracy lesson from Russia?

 

[CardSharp]

Russia will not fall as long as she has the largest reserve of nuclear weapons

Leveraging nuclear weapons for money and food is risky and by no means gareentees a state won't fail. (Just look at dear leader)

Russia is stronger than ever and it's time that Western observers accept that.

I just disagree. You are underestimating the damage done by the breakup and oligarchs. You talk about Putin's privatization but what about the preceding 10 years of outright plunder? All privatized oil income flowed out the country for a decade and the economy was stagnant. Putin has certainly changed policy around and put Russian nationalism on a new high (good or bad?)but the Russian economy is still commodities driven and its growth is tightly correlated to the rise(and fall) in commodities prices.

from wiki

"The Russian economy is still commodity-driven despite its growth. Payments from the fuel and energy sector in the form of customs duties and taxes accounted for nearly half of the federal budget's revenues. "

and there are some lecture notes that I am too lazy to dig up that say the something similar.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

First welcome to the forum.

Secondly Control urself kid, don't get too excited. You are replying to some old post. If u carry on like this u will not be staying for long. Learn to respect others, this is not ur house to speak vulgar language and throw tantrums.

I've already reported him in the other thread.

Hopefully we can get back on track.