How can Pakistan counter India’s ABM system?

[prototype]

Look,there is no BMD shield in the world (except Israeli) which has the right to claim 99% kill ratio...all else are "claims".

Tell me who actually verify or discard the claims,If Indian organization claim it had a interception ratio of 99 %(exactly around 97 %)on which basis u discard it,by stating that no other country have it,if that is the criteria then ur missile test success rate is also questionable,since that are miles ahead then each and every nation in the world that dominate this technology.[/QUOTE]

The present operational system like Shaheen-II DOES NOT have MIRV.
Here is why our Ballistic missiles can beat current Indian BMD (consisting of S-300 only)

1. Sheer numbers.
2. S-300 can intercept Ghaznavi class missiles and to some extent,Shaheen-I and Ghauri-I.However,it cannot intercept Ghauri-II and Shaheen-II,because their RVs have greater speed than that is in range for S-300 (Mach 5-8).
3. Shaheen-II has a counter-measures suite consisting of decoys (inflatable balloons and chaff).Also,its ReV employs Maneuverability,by using thrust nozzles.Hence,the MaRV can not only correct trajectory but also can dodge the ABM by changing flight path.

1.Sheer numbers dont work here my friend,ABM is not designed to block each and every missile in ur inventory,its purpose is altogether different,it is only developed to gather a grace period,we will not wait untill Pakistan fire each and every missile in its inventory toward us,as soon as u launch ur first missile,we will also reciprocate from here,ABM is only there to provide the much needed extra time,now to overwhelm the defense system if u launch all ur missiles in a single attempt that is a differet scenario,but even then I dont think u have a single launcher for each and every missile u have in ur inventory.

2.I am not talking about S-300 here,u know,we had that even in the 90's,there is nothing new,I am talking about AAD and PDV which will be inducted by 2013,now If u thing an MIRV version will be available at Pakistan's disposal by that time thats a different matter.

3.Remember I am not talking about intercepting stones here,I am talking about BM,MaRV,chaff's,flares,all this are nothing new,MarV is not about changing trajectory,it just a gliding technique,ABM is designed keeping this in mind,once again the current ABM shield is a two tier network will be also coupled with S-300 and Akash

 

[XYON]

Well,that is not the case...ABMs and BMDs are ready to engage hostile missiles in a matter of seconds...

The time factor only eases the decision of retaliation...i.e. Either to retaliate immediately or to wait for engagement or impact.

That is the case. Missiles launched near-to the border will acquire their targets in a matter of minutes. ABM capability requires complexed network of early warning/ detection, trajectory calculations, and impact point analysis all that requires more than a few minutes of prep time even by the fastest of military computers. Both sides do not have enough depth to have ABM counter measures in place.

ABM Counter measures have been suitable for presumed conflicts between USSR and USA, China and USA where the distances are in thousands of miles and the warning time is well within 1 hour plus!

 

[The Deterrent]

That is the case. Missiles launched near-to the border will acquire their targets in a matter of minutes. ABM capability requires complexed network of early warning/ detection, trajectory calculations, and impact point analysis all that requires more than a few minutes of prep time even by the fastest of military computers. Both sides do not have enough depth to have ABM counter measures in place.

Exaggeration here...if the time factor was too prominent and deploying ABMs was not feasible due to less reaction time,then
1. Israel wouldn't have deployed Arrow series ABM against Iran's Shahab series of missiles and Syria's Scuds
2. USA wouldn't have deployed Patriot SAMs against Iraqi Scuds.
3. India wouldn't have considered developing the ABM in the first place.As per you,it is a complete waste fo money,and I don't take Indians as idiots.

ABM Counter measures have been suitable for presumed conflicts between USSR and USA, China and USA where the distances are in thousands of miles and the warning time is well within 1 hour plus!

Too much exaggeration...

According to ex-US president Jimmy Carter,Soviet ICBMs gave a time window of 26 minutes before hitting their targets inside US mainland.30 minutes is the time stated by a former NATO General (don't remember his name).

 

[The Deterrent]

Tell me who actually verify or discard the claims,If Indian organization claim it had a interception ratio of 99 %(exactly around 97 %)on which basis u discard it,by stating that no other country have it,if that is the criteria then ur missile test success rate is also questionable,since that are miles ahead then each and every nation in the world that dominate this technology.

The 99% kill ratio is often misinterpreted....It does not necessarily mean that out of 100 missiles launched,99 will be intercepted.It means that teh incoming hostile missile faces a 99% interception ratio.That is for the first few missiles.
As the number of missiles launched increases rapidly,this ratio decreases,because BMs are over-whelming the BMD.

I cannot accept that because it is being misinterpreted.The ABM shield protecting one city/area cannot protect the others.If after deploying the system,DRDO says that we have the stated kill ratio,then it is only for that specific area.

Our missile tests are questionable....true.
Here is the answer.There are failures,but a little less than DRDO's.They are not reported as failures on the initiative of Pakistan Army.

 

[The Deterrent]

2.I am not talking about S-300 here,u know,we had that even in the 90's,there is nothing new,I am talking about AAD and PDV which will be inducted by 2013,now If u thing an MIRV version will be available at Pakistan's disposal by that time thats a different matter.

3.Remember I am not talking about intercepting stones here,I am talking about BM,MaRV,chaff's,flares,all this are nothing new,MarV is not about changing trajectory,it just a gliding technique,ABM is designed keeping this in mind,once again the current ABM shield is a two tier network will be also coupled with S-300 and Akash

2. Again the induction thing...It should be clear now that only Dehli will be protect by ABM shield by 2014.The other cities will follow on later,but to say India will completely deploy ABM shield by 2013 is a joke.

3. MaRV is just a gliding technique?
Since Dhanushs didn't have manuevering ReVs and counter measures,so I refuse to accept the claim of having the capability to intercept BMs with such characteristics until the ABM is tested against similar missiles.

And Akash cannot intercept BMs (maybe Nasr)...so

 

[XYON]

Exaggeration here...if the time factor was too prominent and deploying ABMs was not feasible due to less reaction time,then
1. Israel wouldn't have deployed Arrow series ABM against Iran's Shahab series of missiles and Syria's Scuds
2. USA wouldn't have deployed Patriot SAMs against Iraqi Scuds.
3. India wouldn't have considered developing the ABM in the first place.As per you,it is a complete waste fo money,and I don't take Indians as idiots.



Too much exaggeration...

According to ex-US president Jimmy Carter,Soviet ICBMs gave a time window of 26 minutes before hitting their targets inside US mainland.30 minutes is the time stated by a former NATO General (don't remember his name).

The examples you have quoted (Israel, Iran Syria, US-Iraq) all have a common factor......DISTANCE from point of launch to the Point of Impact. India has strategic depth and can place such ABM's near to its Eastern Borders in order to have ample time for a reaction to Pakistani launched missile. But the same could be countered by launching dummies or multiple missiles. No ABM in the world is that effective to have 100% kill ratio. Saddam Hussein fired a Scud over Saudi Arab, Patriot missile detected it, and intercepted it rather unsuccessfully and the missile fell over Riyadh. If that missile would have been NBC tipped, Riyadh would have been in big trouble (all this action took around 40 minutes). Indians are researching on ABM's mainly to support US program of having such missiles against rogue nations (read China).

Lastly, 30 minutes flight reaction window (barring the time period the US or Soviet Satellites could detect the location and aggressive posturing/ fueling of enemy missiles) is still is an eternity for a militarily advanced nation as USA compared to Pakistan or India which even do not have early warning satellites.

Therefore and realistically, ABM will remain an unaffordable venture and essentially a pipe dream for the Indo-Pak area.

 

[The Deterrent]

The examples you have quoted (Israel, Iran Syria, US-Iraq) all have a common factor......DISTANCE from point of launch to the Point of Impact. India has strategic depth and can place such ABM's near to its Eastern Borders in order to have ample time for a reaction to Pakistani launched missile. But the same could be countered by launching dummies or multiple missiles. No ABM in the world is that effective to have 100% kill ratio. Saddam Hussein fired a Scud over Saudi Arab, Patriot missile detected it, and intercepted it rather unsuccessfully and the missile fell over Riyadh. If that missile would have been NBC tipped, Riyadh would have been in big trouble (all this action took around 40 minutes). Indians are researching on ABM's mainly to support US program of having such missiles against rogue nations (read China).

Lastly, 30 minutes flight reaction window (barring the time period the US or Soviet Satellites could detect the location and aggressive posturing/ fueling of enemy missiles) is still is an eternity for a militarily advanced nation as USA compared to Pakistan or India which even do not have early warning satellites.

Therefore and realistically, ABM will remain an unaffordable venture and essentially a pipe dream for the Indo-Pak area.

Syria shares border with Israel.Iraq shares border with KSA (when US base was attacked by Scuds).

As for Patriot SAM failure:

On February 25, 1991, an Iraqi Scud hit the barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, killing 28 soldiers from the US Army's 14th Quartermaster Detachment.
A government investigation revealed that the failed intercept at Dhahran had been caused by a software error in the system's clock. The Patriot missile battery at Dhahran had been in operation for 100 hours, by which time the system's internal clock had drifted by one third of a second. Due to the closure speed of the interceptor and the target, this resulted in a miss distance of 600 meters.

I fail to understand how a Scud missile has a flight time of 40 minutes?...when the best variant of Scud series has a flight time of 10 minutes...
The rest I agree with you.Developing a BMD which can effectively shield a BM attck from Pakistan is going to be very,rather very very costly.

 

[deckingraj]

^^^^^^^^^^

Two points which we are clearly not looking into when commenting upon distance b/w India and Pakistan...

- If proximity results in less time for interception then it also fascilitate intercepting missile in its most vulnerable position i.e launch phase...
- what we all are banking upon is that BMD system cannot/least effective in intercepting missiles in such a short span of time...However no one has explained as to why??? why is 4-5 minutes time(as stated) not good enough to intercept a missile??? It all depends on when it got detected, no???
- BMD system is specifically meant to counter Pakistan(atleast in the first phase)...Look at the range of missiles we are dealing with in the first phase...I don't mind you guys thinking that Indian scienitist community is nothing but a bunch of fools but then we all know reality is different...

 

[deckingraj]

The rest I agree with you.Developing a BMD which can effectively shield a BM attck from Pakistan is going to be very,rather very very costly.

Security has no price tag...However BMD is a two edged sword..Not only it gives an extra layer of protection but also drain away resources of the enemy who now has to do much more to ensure she still have a good enough deterrant and capabilty to punish enemy should it try the unthinkable...

Having said that BMD can also you give a flawed sense of security which can make you take "not so smart decisions"...Let's see what future has in store ....

 

[The Deterrent]

^^^^^^^^^^

Two points which we are clearly not looking into when commenting upon distance b/w India and Pakistan...

- If proximity results in less time for interception then it also fascilitate intercepting missile in its most vulnerable position i.e launch phase...
- what we all are banking upon is that BMD system cannot/least effective in intercepting missiles in such a short span of time...However no one has explained as to why??? why is 4-5 minutes time(as stated) not good enough to intercept a missile??? It all depends on when it got detected, no???
- BMD system is specifically meant to counter Pakistan(atleast in the first phase)...Look at the range of missiles we are dealing with in the first phase...I don't mind you guys thinking that Indian scienitist community is nothing but a bunch of fools but then we all know reality is different...

1. Boost phase interception is close to impossible by ABMs.However,Boeing YAL-1 Airborne Laser has achieved effective Boost phase kills against Liquid-fueled missiles.

2. I agree...

3. If you are thinking of tackling China with ABMs then forget it.Just simply forget it.

---------- Post added at 12:07 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:05 AM ----------

Security has no price tag...However BMD is a two edged sword..Not only it gives an extra layer of protection but also drain away resources of the enemy who now has to do much more to ensure she still have a good enough deterrant and capabilty to punish enemy should it try the unthinkable...

Having said that BMD can also you give a flawed sense of security which can make you take "not so smart decisions"...Let's see what future has in store ....

Nice one-liner...

Security does have price tags.American projects like KEV,MKV and ABL are cancelled/dropped due to cost over-runs...

 

[deckingraj]

1. Boost phase interception is close to impossible by ABMs.However,Boeing YAL-1 Airborne Laser has achieved effective Boost phase kills against Liquid-fueled missiles.

2. I agree...

3. If you are thinking of tackling China with ABMs then forget it.Just simply forget it.

1. That is the goal...The debate is not if we can achieve it...Point is less distance makes it easy to intercept missile in the lauch phase...Anyways this piece of R&D is part of phase 2 of BMD...

2. Good..

3. Look you are not getting the point...Even Pakistani missiles cannot be countered 100% with BMD..There would be missiles that will sneak in...However with BMD less number will sneak in than otherwise...Secondly no one can fire all(large number of) their missiles in one go without loosing the surprise factor???...It is as simple as that...

---------- Post added at 03:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:29 PM ----------

Nice one-liner...

Security does have price tags.American projects like KEV,MKV and ABL are cancelled/dropped due to cost over-runs...

Security does not have price tags my dear and this is no one liner...If the system is effective and a good enough counter measure then price is not such a big deterrent as you are perceiving it to be???

 

[JayAtl]

The arguments/ positions taken in this post makes a case for india to go for the Nato missile shield which even russia is a part of ...

 

[ares]

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[The Deterrent]

1. That is the goal...The debate is not if we can achieve it...Point is less distance makes it easy to intercept missile in the lauch phase...Anyways this piece of R&D is part of phase 2 of BMD...

2. Good..

3. Look you are not getting the point...Even Pakistani missiles cannot be countered 100% with BMD..There would be missiles that will sneak in...However with BMD less number will sneak in than otherwise...Secondly no one can fire all(large number of) their missiles in one go without loosing the surprise factor???...It is as simple as that...

1. Boost phase interception by an ABM is very difficult because of some reasons...

a. Short range.The interceptor missile has to be very close to the launch point of the hostile BM.Currently only Aegis has a possible boost-phase capability, but—in the case of the SM-2—it needs to be within 40 km of a launch point.So the Shaheen and Ghauri series can be launched even from Baluchistan.
b. Very less time.Boost-phase interception gives a time window of less than a minute in case of majority missiles of Pakistan (including Abdali,Ghaznavi,Shaheen-I).

3. I'm getting your point.What I have understood after studying BMDs,is that they provide protection against hostile missiles in some particular scenarios.For example,a limited strike by a rogue state,accidental launches from enemy,limited strikes by rebels/terrorists etc.Another assurance they provide is the safety of strategic assets and major population/industrial centers.Now,this can be advantageous if the BMD capable country also holds the first strike option.So that they can take out majority nuclear assets in the first strike and the remaining can be intercepted.

But a professional Army realizes all these threats,and takes into account every possible way to over-whelm the enemy's defenses.Hence you are seeing more reliable missiles and tactical nuclear systems being developed by Pakistan.

Security does not have price tags my dear and this is no one liner...If the system is effective and a good enough counter measure then price is not such a big deterrent as you are perceiving it to be???

Exactly....if a system is effective and reliable,only then a high amount can be invested in it.But there is a limited to that too.I hope India does not have unlimited defense budgets like Pentagon and DoD had.

Have a read.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/wmd-mi...ssile-defenses-effectiveness-reliability.html

 

[The Deterrent]

The real threat which could cause considerable damage to Pakistani BMs is the Indian land-based Laser defense system (say,a bigger version of THEL) in phase-2 of the Indian BMD...It could damage BMs in their Boost phase.

Luckily,except Ghauri series,all Pakistani BMs are solid-fueled... which are faster,have less boost time and have thicker skins.Hence,the targeted laser should be very strong and the "heating-time" should be greater...