Here is why CPEC never reached its full potential

[muhammadhafeezmalik]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456933963122020356

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456934214209875985

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456934776988917766

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456935031897788418

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456935220758908929

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456935325473906694

@Patriot forever @ziaulislam @farok84 @blueazure @muhammadhafeezmalik @POPEYE-Sailor @Muhammad Omar @Beast @Shotgunner51 @beijingwalker @Dual Wielder @AZ1 @Path-Finder

Halal PTM propaganda.

 

[Falconless]

Comparing Maritime Versus Railway Transportation Costs

Several years ago, two independent studies compared maritime to railway transportation costs involving the movement of containers. It seems possible

www.maritime-executive.com

 

[Patriot forever]

i stopped reading at "in shipping the cheapest way between any two points is by sea" that's not correct in all circumstances, sorry sir you are in my opinion not correct. Among other things, when you calculate costs what would time? isn't that of any importance?

And there is way more to CPEC and Gawadar than meets the eye, the geo-political scenario is rapidly changing, we never would have thought that we will say Russians and Pakisani's will be friends and will be working together?

Bro the mistake you are making is goods that need to be transferred will be coming from Chinese industrial hubs that are on its Eastern coast. Shipping route is cheaper than by land. By train its cheaper if China plans on to develop its Western country side. ( It was meant to be a long term project).

BTW have any rail network been set?
If rail network was so vital why has it never been a priority project?
ML-1 why China is not agreeing on concessionary financing if it was that vital to their objectives?

Anyways the point is Pakistan can gain from it by China transferring low end manufacturing to Pakistan, but it is not short term scenario rather a long term. We already to some degree messed it up when we signed those expensive IPP contracts (probably the highest electricity tariff in entire Asia).
We used it for vanity projects like Orange train.
We went for imported fuel costing us billions in forex each year instead of utilizing this opportunity for developing thar coal phase wise.
We frontloaded extremely high ROI 'take or pay' energy projects for political reasons (we only needed 2-5k MW till our hydro or others come online) ending up with Rs1 trillion capacity payment each year.

The only worthy part of CPEC which makes economic sense in the long term is motorways and port itself, which barely makes up 10% of cost of CPEC sofar, and yes Lahore-Mitiari power transmission line also.

 

[Patriot forever]

yes

only of pdf , PTI morons will tell you :-

1. land route is cheaper vs sea

2. LNG is cheaper than NG

Not PTI, plmn morons.

We have been saying this for a long time, land route only by China's western Pakistan bordering areas makes sense.

We have been shouting for ages that IPP 'take or pay' imported fuel power plants will devastate us.

Fun fact.

( The capacity payments has surpassed the generation cost of all electricity)

 

[ziaulislam]

Disagree how will i get kick backs in BOT model

 

[blueazure]

Not PTI, plmn morons.

We have been saying this for a long time, land route only by China's western Pakistan bordering areas makes sense.

We have been shouting for ages that IPP 'take or pay' imported fuel power plants will devastate us.

Fun fact.

( The capacity payments has surpassed the generation cost of all electricity)

CPEC has nothing to do with energy agreements, FFS

 

[Patriot forever]

CPEC has nothing to do with energy agreements, FFS

Tell that to plmn folks.

I know which projects were financed using Chinese concessionary loans ( the core of CPEC) vs IPP's under 2015 policy by Chinese companies.

They still do advertise it under CPEC. These energy projects make up majority of Chinese investment and are included in $40b / $60b figure quoted for CPEC. The rest actual part is just a fraction of this figure.

 

[Crimson Blue]

CPEC has nothing to do with energy agreements, FFS

Official List of Energy Projects under CPEC

Pakistan urges China to soften terms for CPEC power deals

Yeah whatever ....

 

[Wood]

The biggest problem for CPEC seems to be the population distribution of China. The western part of China is not arable and therefore sparsely populated. There is no real market incentive to ship large goods to this part of China via CPEC route.

I do not doubt the motives of China with respect to Pakistan. A strong and prosperous Pakistan will undoubtedly handle China's ambitions with respect to India easily. But the reality of population distribution in China stands on the way of this plan.

CPEC may have limited economic prospects, but is certainly more fruitful in diplomatic and military terms for Pakistan.

 

[Crimson Blue]

The biggest problem for CPEC seems to be the population distribution of China. The western part of China is not arable and therefore sparsely populated. There is no real market incentive to ship large goods to this part of China via CPEC route.

There is not gonna be much of transit trade between Pakistan & China under CPEC, anytime soon. There is no mention about this even on CPEC official website. There is no planned big highways or rail track between China & Pakistan to facilitate such transit trade from Gwader to China. Even when BRT buses were sent to Peshawar, those were shipped via sea to Karachi port & not through some imaginary CPEC road between China & Pakistan.

But this is the main aspect that western media (CNBC, DW, CNN & BBC) focuses on and then tries to prove how CPEC is going to fail since such a transit trade is not feasible.

 

[Wood]

There is not gonna be much of transit trade between Pakistan & China under CPEC. There is no mention about this even on CPEC official website. There is no planned big highways or rail track between China & Pakistan to facilitate such transit trade from Gwader to China.

But this is the main aspect that western media (CNBC, DW, CNN & BBC) focuses on and then tries to prove how CPEC is going to fail since such a transit trade is not feasible.

Well, China did say that CPEC is the crown of BRI (the grand plan to revive silk route). So you cannot entirely blame the western media for it.

 

[Crimson Blue]

Well, China did say that CPEC is the crown of BRI (the grand plan to revive silk route). So you cannot entirely blame the western media for it.

Well I expect higher level criticism from Western media like an article published in NY Times or Washington Post. Even criticism lobed by Alice Wells at Woodrow Wilson Center in 2019 was just superficial.

Either Western Media has really no idea how CPEC is going to work (which I find baffling) or they are just picking easy target of criticizing transit trade from Gwadar to China.

 

[Prince Kassad]

I understand that most of the Pakistani brethren would assume by default that any Indian saying anything negative would be out of jealousy. Well you reserve that right to your view point. I see some positives for Pakistan, but a lot more negatives in the long run. Talking just economics here, a lot is murky in terms of benefits and longer term welfare gain for the people of Pakistan. Short term monetary details, I dont care about loans, debt or interest rates right now. But show me the long term gain for the common people.

1. Pakistan’s Manufacturing sector: The first market that really opens up for Chinese goods is the biggest in that region aka Pakistan. Not Iran, not CIS. This development gives Chinese goods swifter and cheaper access than before. So how will Pakistan protect its local industry from dumping by China? They can dump products at dirt cheap prices halfway around the world, so dont tell me they cant. Same goes for exported goods. You would be in a dream if you think Pakistani manufactured goods can compete with Chinese ones exported out of that port. How many markets open up for Pakistani goods in reality? Remember that the ability of China to finance massive subsidies is far greater than the GDP of most countries.
2. High paying jobs: Almost all the literature I read, most of the development contracts were with Chinese companies as well as the better paying jobs. Locals are being employed only in construction labor and other low paying jobs. This, does nothing to your long term welfare. This also includes sourcing. Everything from steel to equiment is being brought from China. Atleast if you had a better local sourcing regulation, Pakistan Steel Mills could have been revived at the very least.
3. Power: A lot has been spoken about the huge thermal power plants being set up. In the short term, they will plug the peak deficit leading to lower load shedding. But if Chinese manufacturing causes your industries to close down (say) who consumes that much extra power? Generation capacity follows demand. Dont give a blind trust key to China just because they let you use their veto. Protect your manufacturing.
4. Manufacturing shift: Over the longer term, say 10-15 years if CPEC is hale and running, Pakistan will become a dumping ground for Chinese manufacturing. Not cutting edge high tech stuff, low end highly polluting ones that the government of China would want to offshore given the current trends in China. They are moving up the value chain, incomes are continuously rising, plus there is an emphasis and mass consensus on environment there. Pakistan sits ideal in terms of access to both China and rest of the world then, plus cheap labor.

In the short term, it appears this would benefit the people of Pakistan. Its up to Pakistani people to ensure that they aren’t curing just the short term headache of a tumor with a short term analgesic, meaning just short term benefit, but are killing the real problem i.e. the tumor as well. I am not being critical here, I am not sure how much of a safety net pakistan is building for itself.

 

[Crimson Blue]

Manufacturing shift: Over the longer term, say 10-15 years if CPEC is hale and running, Pakistan will become a dumping ground for Chinese manufacturing.

What 10-15 years? It has already started and operating. Also here & here .

And almost forgot this Steel Mill which would consume 45 MW of electricity all by itself.

That's what CPEC is about. Its not about transit trade of raw material from Gwader to China but rather it is about Industry Relocation. I don't know why this is so hard for western media to grasp.

 

[RoadRunner401]

Wow, Mr @Norwegian, Did you pay attention to the guy's qualifications (Father of 3 amazing kids) PLus shipping, receiving supervisor That qualifies him to make a judgment call on a $60 billion dollar project. Stop posting propaganda bull!!!!!!

This highly qualified person goes on to say (Most successful countries develop when they are doing about 40% regional trade.) Now I definitely didn't go to the same shcool (school) as this individual did, trade international and or regional requires connectivity, and without building the infrastructure that's there is no connectivity.

CPEC had to deal with Indian Terrorism, Pakistani sold-out completely incompetent politicians, and Afghanistan not to mention energy shortages, so before people judge and compare Chinese regions and the Turkish region's progress remember they didn't have these issues.

Infrastructure builds for CPEC have already started paying dividends, we have started trading with Uzbekistan, Tajikstan and other states will follow soon plus we now offer access to warm waters (sea route) throughout the year to those states that were cut off from the world 6 months of the year.