Has the Groundwork already been laid for a Turkic Corridor?

[FuturePAF]

no densely populated country has made it rich on mining and other natural resources
generally natural resources have been a curse to the common man in the third world countries

the world economy took off after maritime trade became common in the 16th century. why would anybody want to go back to land based trade ?

Land based trade is safer from obstruction by a potentially hostile peer competitor.

 

[nahtanbob]

Land based trade is safer from obstruction by a potentially hostile peer competitor.

you are at the whims of everyone

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

no densely populated country has made it rich on mining and other natural resources
generally natural resources have been a curse to the common man in the third world countries

Afghanistan is not densely populated... do check largest exports of Australia...

the world economy took off after maritime trade became common in the 16th century. why would anybody want to go back to land based trade ?

Trade in essence is a transaction among people... fulfilling demand of some by effort, products or resources of others... What you describe is a large scale colonization of disparate far flung militarily meek by advanced war fighting peoples who of course bypassed a tough middleman to enslave and usurp resources.

Trade today is perhaps finding balance again and possibly it's purpose... people!

 

[nahtanbob]

Afghanistan is not densely populated... do check largest exports of Australia...



Trade in essence is a transaction among people... fulfilling demand of some by effort, products or resources of others... What you describe is a large scale colonization of disparate far flung militarily meek by advanced war fighting peoples who of course bypassed a tough middleman to enslave and usurp resources.

Trade today is perhaps finding balance again and possibly it's purpose... people!

Afghanistan is densely populated for amount of resources it have. Australia is a continent sized country with population of Karachi.

colonialism ended 50+ years ago. If a European want to import pepper from India or Indonesia who wants to pay some Turkish or Arab middleman a cut ? There is a good reason most of the world is using maritime trade

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

Afghanistan is densely populated for amount of resources it have. Australia is a continent sized country with population of Karachi.

colonialism ended 50+ years ago. If a European want to import pepper from India or Indonesia who wants to pay some Turkish or Arab middleman a cut ? There is a good reason most of the world is using maritime trade

So, question is can densely populated countries make it rich on mining?...
Do elaborate on correlation, as roughly both(Afghanistan and Australia) have about the same size population with one having least exploited resources perhaps in the whole world... and the other living off them...
then we will pivot to Afghan population in comparison to it's resources ...

Let's accept colonialism ended 50 years ago... perhaps inferring on your Indian background... but then you retort back to European import from xyz and Turks as Middlemen, why? Are Turks themselves not a market and as I previously mentioned, Europe had an appetite for which they circumnavigated the whole world ... population centers being densely populated Europe, South, southeast and Eastern Asia...
We are not living the same world anymore, Europe no longer is the center of world in commerce or consumption. China is by far the largest client of Aussie resources and biggest loser if it(China) develops resources in it's proximity... As it stands now, Afghanistan has the largest unexploited Iron ore deposits in Asia... Uranium is abundant in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, Lithium in Af/Pak so on and so forth... you get the drift, right?
All that being said one must look at the bigger picture... connecting each region opens its "people" for trade as producers or end consumers. Silk road benefited everyone along the route... in knowledge, communication and commerce.

 

[nahtanbob]

So, question is can densely populated countries make it rich on mining?...
Do elaborate on correlation, as roughly both(Afghanistan and Australia) have about the same size population with one having least exploited resources perhaps in the whole world... and the other living off them...
then we will pivot to Afghan population in comparison to it's resources ...

Let's accept colonialism ended 50 years ago... perhaps inferring on your Indian background... but then you retort back to European import from xyz and Turks as Middlemen, why? Are Turks themselves not a market and as I previously mentioned, Europe had an appetite for which they circumnavigated the whole world ... population centers being densely populated Europe, South, southeast and Eastern Asia...
We are not living the same world anymore, Europe no longer is the center of world in commerce or consumption. China is by far the largest client of Aussie resources and biggest loser if it(China) develops resources in it's proximity... As it stands now, Afghanistan has the largest unexploited Iron ore deposits in Asia... Uranium is abundant in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, Lithium in Af/Pak so on and so forth... you get the drift, right?
All that being said one must look at the bigger picture... connecting each region opens its "people" for trade as producers or end consumers. Silk road benefited everyone along the route... in knowledge, communication and commerce.

If a Pakistani is purchasing oil from Russian producer why does anyone else other than Russian producer need to be paid ? Why does a Turk need to get paid for that transaction ?

Replace Europe with China. Nothing changes. If they can have it Chinese are not paying any middlemen a dime. Keep dreaming if you think otherwise

I have nothing against land based trading routes. Land locked countries in Europe use them. That means rule of law, political stability and no territorial disputes. That is not the case in Asia. I do not want my products to be at the mercy of political instability in Pakistan or a civil war in Afghanistan. Neither do most buyers and sellers.

Silk road was there because there was no other alternative. There are alternatives now.

Afghanistan does not compare with Australia in any known mineral resources. Afghanistan population is larger than Australia and it will keep growing.

Iron ore: global reserves by country 2023 | Statista

The reserves of crude iron ore in Australia, the country with the world's largest iron ore reserves, were estimated to be approximately 58 billion metric tons in 2023.

www.statista.com

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

If a Pakistani is purchasing oil from Russian producer why does anyone else other than Russian producer need to be paid ? Why does a Turk need to get paid for that transaction ?

Replace Europe with China. Nothing changes. If they can have it Chinese are not paying any middlemen a dime. Keep dreaming if you think otherwise

I have nothing against land based trading routes. Land locked countries in Europe use them. That means rule of law, political stability and no territorial disputes. That is not the case in Asia. I do not want my products to be at the mercy of political instability in Pakistan or a civil war in Afghanistan. Neither do most buyers and sellers.

Silk road was there because there was no other alternative. There are alternatives now.

Afghanistan does not compare with Australia in any known mineral resources. Afghanistan population is larger than Australia and it will keep growing.

Iron ore: global reserves by country 2023 | Statista

The reserves of crude iron ore in Australia, the country with the world's largest iron ore reserves, were estimated to be approximately 58 billion metric tons in 2023.

www.statista.com

I don't know if you're using middleman as an original thought or just kicking the can... anyways, who says don't buy directly from the vendor and I don't know if I remotely inferred it... by all means buy from vendor... and I guess at this point it is futile to even mention distribution channels or chains... resource supply chain... of how absurd it is when when we mention Iron ore supply to China, end product manufacturing and end buyer/consumer.
In a rapidly changing global environment, Chinese threat perception, untapped markets and their potential... China is developing it's own markets, chains and consumers of it's products/services... is that any different then what you mentioned earlier about Europeans?

Silk road was there because people were there! You have very euro-centric view of the trade ... a lot more than just shipping routes killed Silk road and its revival is again banking on the people...

Let's backtrack a bit... China signed one of the largest ever bilateral agreements with Iran... I guess they're not listening to Tanned Bob.

 

[nahtanbob]

I don't know if you're using middleman as an original thought or just kicking the can... anyways, who says don't buy directly from the vendor and I don't know if I remotely inferred it... by all means buy from vendor... and I guess at this point it is futile to even mention distribution channels or chains... resource supply chain... of how absurd it is when when we mention Iron ore supply to China, end product manufacturing and end buyer/consumer.
In a rapidly changing global environment, Chinese threat perception, untapped markets and their potential... China is developing it's own markets, chains and consumers of it's products/services... is that any different then what you mentioned earlier about Europeans?

Silk road was there because people were there! You have very euro-centric view of the trade ... a lot more than just shipping routes killed Silk road and its revival is again banking on the people...

Let's backtrack a bit... China signed one of the largest ever bilateral agreements with Iran... I guess they're not listening to Tanned Bob.

I am not against middlemen per se. It exists in most transactions. A retailer is a middleman. I cannot avoid it.

The problem with the ancient Silk route is that there were middlemen (probably too many).

Silk route has everything to do with geography. The population of Middle East, Central Asia and Turkey in Silk age days is a fraction of the population in South Asia and East Asia.

China has traded with Iran for a long time. Nothing changes with this bilateral agreement. Most Iranian oil is going to flow in tankers to China unless China can bend Pakistan or Central Asian Republics to allow a pipeline for cheap

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

I am not against middlemen per se. It exists in most transactions. A retailer is a middleman. I cannot avoid it.

The problem with the ancient Silk route is that there were middlemen (probably too many).

Silk route has everything to do with geography. The population of Middle East, Central Asia and Turkey in Silk age days is a fraction of the population in South Asia and East Asia.

China has traded with Iran for a long time. Nothing changes with this bilateral agreement. Most Iranian oil is going to flow in tankers to China unless China can bend Pakistan or Central Asian Republics to allow a pipeline for cheap

Looks like we're on a merry-go-round... So my last few words if they make sense... Chinese supply chain and resource security is totally contingent on Chinese threat perception ... it wouldn't change on mine or your whims, desires or apprehensions. These are strategic initiatives and Chinese money...
Good luck Bob!

 

[nahtanbob]

Looks like we're on a merry-go-round... So my last few words if they make sense... Chinese supply chain and resource security is totally contingent on Chinese threat perception ... it wouldn't change on mine or your whims, desires or apprehensions. These are strategic initiatives and Chinese money...
Good luck Bob!

Disclaimer - I understand supply chains and I have worked on them for a living.

The only problem with land based supply chains is that they end at the borders of Iran and Russia. Gwadar is no secure more secure than Shanghai in a confrontation with the US Navy. Iran and Russia are not going to hand over their independence to China for a few dollars unlike Pakistan and/or Central Asian Republics. The amount of raw materials and energy resources in Central Asia/Afghanistan are not enough to support China's needs.

I have seen way too many threads in CPEC section on how transport corridors will make Pakistan rich or developed or indispensable in the new economic order. A lot of these threads are "feel good" threads with no basis in reality. The Suez Canal which dramatically cuts the time to transport goods from Asia to Europe yields $7 billion for Egypt. This is revenues not profits. The Suez Canal is a functional project

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

Disclaimer - I understand supply chains and I have worked on them for a living.

The only problem with land based supply chains is that they end at the borders of Iran and Russia. Gwadar is no secure more secure than Shanghai in a confrontation with the US Navy. Iran and Russia are not going to hand over their independence to China for a few dollars unlike Pakistan and/or Central Asian Republics. The amount of raw materials and energy resources in Central Asia/Afghanistan are not enough to support China's needs.

I have seen way too many threads in CPEC section on how transport corridors will make Pakistan rich or developed or indispensable in the new economic order. A lot of these threads are "feel good" threads with no basis in reality. The Suez Canal which dramatically cuts the time to transport goods from Asia to Europe yields $7 billion for Egypt. This is revenues not profits. The Suez Canal is a functional project

So, first Suez Canal is not an appropriate retort... See against my better judgment, I'm continuing to indulge you in the absurd...
Suez is a waterway, land routes on the other hand connect people... So, I don't know how long you've been to the U.S. but wherever you live it should relate
Whichever exit you take on I-5, 40, 90 or 95 you'd find a motel(monopolized by a certain community), one or many fuel stations, one or many restaurants, a Dunkin' Mickey D's or some other chain/franchised fast food joint, perhaps a truck stop if a certain distance from previous one all of this infrastructure and related economic activity is what lifts people. In fact this it seems is exactly unfolding in Pakistan along with designated SEZ's...
But actually, I give up! At this point I concede B'desh is yours! Congratulations

 

[nahtanbob]

So, first Suez Canal is not an appropriate retort... See against my better judgment, I'm continuing to indulge you in the absurd...
Suez is a waterway, land routes on the other hand connect people... So, I don't know how long you've been to the U.S. but wherever you live it should relate
Whichever exit you take on I-5, 40, 90 or 95 you'd find a motel(monopolized by a certain community), one or many fuel stations, one or many restaurants, a Dunkin' Mickey D's or some other chain/franchised fast food joint, perhaps a truck stop if a certain distance from previous one all of this infrastructure and related economic activity is what lifts people. In fact this it seems is exactly unfolding in Pakistan along with designated SEZ's...
But actually, I give up! At this point I concede B'desh is yours! Congratulations

You are comparing American interstate freeways with no tolls to with your land routes where Pakistani/Afghan interests are going to extract tolls. Is that a comparison you want to make ?

On the highway exits wtih gas stations, restaurants and motels the owners of those business make money. rest of the population is living off below average wages unless it is in a tourism destination. I do not know of any major metropolitan area that survives off those business models. Most of the towns with only motels, gas stations and restaurants have a few thousand people at most.

On the SEZs in Pakistan the devil is in the detail. For starters most of them are in interior of Pakistan

Industrial Cooperation/Special Economic Zones(SEZs) | China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Authority Official Website

CPEC | China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Official Website Develop By Ministry of Planning Development & Special Initiatives CPEC Authority 'P' block Pak-Secretariat, Islamabad,Pakistan. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a framework of regional connectivity. CPEC will not only benefit...

cpec.gov.pk

No TDH in the global market is going to pay for the added cost of transportation from interior of Pakistan to Karachi. SEZs in China worked because they are close to the coast and close to the shipping ports

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Looks like we're on a merry-go-round... So my last few words if they make sense... Chinese supply chain and resource security is totally contingent on Chinese threat perception ... it wouldn't change on mine or your whims, desires or apprehensions. These are strategic initiatives and Chinese money...
Good luck Bob!

Turkey has sent her first train of exports to China via the Caucasus and the Central Asia! Currently, it’ll take 12 days.....

 

[OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ]

You are comparing American interstate freeways with no tolls to with your land routes where Pakistani/Afghan interests are going to extract tolls. Is that a comparison you want to make ?

On the highway exits wtih gas stations, restaurants and motels the owners of those business make money. rest of the population is living off below average wages unless it is in a tourism destination. I do not know of any major metropolitan area that survives off those business models. Most of the towns with only motels, gas stations and restaurants have a few thousand people at most.

On the SEZs in Pakistan the devil is in the detail. For starters most of them are in interior of Pakistan

Industrial Cooperation/Special Economic Zones(SEZs) | China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Authority Official Website

CPEC | China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Official Website Develop By Ministry of Planning Development & Special Initiatives CPEC Authority 'P' block Pak-Secretariat, Islamabad,Pakistan. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a framework of regional connectivity. CPEC will not only benefit...

cpec.gov.pk

No TDH in the global market is going to pay for the added cost of transportation from interior of Pakistan to Karachi. SEZs in China worked because they are close to the coast and close to the shipping ports

Instead you expose yourself further! Didn't you just present yourself as gainfully employed in some supply chain dynamic... changing oil?

U.S. interstate tolls are regulated by states except where Fed has a say... so firstly calling U.S. interstate system toll free is absurd at the very least and an outright lie at worst!!! Second, commercial traffic, yes, their tolls are per axle, besides being part of IFTA(google it if you are not familiar), weigh stations and limitations. Businesses on exits are not subsidized but a form of commerce and it doesn't mean shops at the exits hire entire towns... serenity now! You look at the board how many regionally or nationally get gainfully employed by this economic activity, perhaps that is what you meant, understanding supply chain much?!

CPEC's SEZ aims are trade, investment and job creation... you tell both Chinese and Pakistanis why they are wrong in setting these in such places and hiring people from the interior? Besides, you're the last person to figure on who will and will not pay for which services ...

Further, Gwadar is a Panamax deep port, capable of catering to Chinamax and Seawaymax Ships, connecting an untapped region, that, right there is the key to it's success...

Now stop this bickering, nothing more than a show of one upmanship ... my response can only be limited to what is presented and I feel it is a distraction especially when I have to repeat myself to get through to your thick skull... besides, if nothing else Pakistan and the region still desperately needs modern infrastructure and regional connectivity especially with it's hinterland.

 

[FuturePAF]

you are at the whims of everyone

It is indeed a tough sell. That’s why it depends first and foremost on the Turks. It is also why Pakistan is trying to find common cause with all the players around the board. Nothing ventured nothing gained. If all parties benefit, it’s mutually beneficial, if not it’s back to business as usual, which isn’t working for anyone in the neighborhood.