Has the Groundwork already been laid for a Turkic Corridor?

[nahtanbob]

The key is Turkey. If they make the investment, they would only have done so after a careful economics feasibility of the move. Granted, it would be a small investment at first, but that is only to prevent being burned, if the politics of the venture are not right.

The central Asian countries (and Russia) would also want to diversify away from an emerging China. Which is why Turkmenistan would be the key central Asian country in this venture. They could start by building a series of pipelines for their oil and gas to Azerbaijan, as well as through Afghanistan to Pakistan and the world market. A route through Turkmenistan by road and/or rail would be all that is needed, if the Turks become interested and a secure corridor through Afghanistan can be formed. Recently Russia indicated it wanted to expand trade with Pakistan, which this corridor through Turkmenistan would do.

Western mining companies would also venture in if there is money to be made with the expected increase in demand for renewables and batteries. They may want to use this route if Biden and his incoming administration sanctions business ventures or trade with Russia directly.

It comes down to politics and if the initial investments bare any fruit. That is why a CPEC expansion through Afghanistan would be an addendum to a Turkish led effort. Chinese investors could come in to fund value added factories in Pakistan if the minerals can be shipped to them, because they wouldn’t feel as securing building those same factories in Afghanistan.

In the 2nd paragraph you want to move away from China. In the 4th paragraph you want to involve China. Decide what you want.

If you want Turkmenistan to ship to countries other than China look at the atlas. It borders Iran and build your transport corridor and get it over. Shipping something over the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and then on land to Turkey and then shipping by sea is not economical.

You are right anyway you look at it - it is either Russia or Iran or China

 

[Indus Pakistan]

arrogant rich white goras

With attitude like that your never going to get out of the self imposed village mentality you have. The fact this region is full of "goras". Turks, Azerbaijani's, many Central Asians are almost or are goras. Just look at Erdogan or Aliyev. They dress, posture, think like "goras". And you expect wit your village level Pakistani mentality to engage with Eurasia and make Pakistan a hub? Are you frikken joking ???

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

With attitude like that your never going to get out of the self imposed village mentality you have. The fact this region is full of "goras". Turks, Azerbaijani's, many Central Asians are almost or are goras. Just look at Erdogan or Aliyev. They dress, posture, think like "goras". And you expect wit your village level Pakistani mentality to engage with Eurasia and make Pakistan a hub? Are you frikken joking ???

You know very well what I mean. By gora I mean white Americans and Europeans. Others on here understand as well. You have a history of anti Pakistan, pro gora thinking.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

What Pakistan needs is to stabilize Afghanistan and then make corridors to the CAS states So they can use Pakistani ports for trade.

View attachment 693279

We also need to build new ports and build cities from scratch at Pasni, Jiwani, and Omrara just like Gwader. More cities means more jobs and will take the load off Karachi and spread the population evenly on all other cities.

View attachment 693278

Pakistan also needs to build canals connecting the Indus River to all these major cities. This will not only satisfy the demand for water by the population in these cities but also make all the areas on the way cultivatable.

In my opinion this is the future of Pakistan.

Great post and you hit bullseye. Any plan has to be based on solid foundation. Pipedreams don't work. The map yiou have drawn is based on solid facts and geography. Pakistan's coast and ports like Gwadar, Pasni, Ormara have Central Asia as their hinterland. In fact I did some calculation once and it appeared that even Russian Western Siberia, places like Novosibirsk are within Gwadar hinterland. All that is required is roads, rail and the walls built up from the British Raj and Russian Empire days being brought down. Pakistani's need to pull their heads out of "desi" ar*se and think Eurasian.

Instead of being Gangu Centric, which is legacy of British Raj -

Pakiostani's need to think Eurasia-centric where the future lies with enormous potential -

You have a history of anti Pakistan, pro gora thinking

and you have a history of being American.

 

[Yankee-stani]

With attitude like that your never going to get out of the self imposed village mentality you have. The fact this region is full of "goras". Turks, Azerbaijani's, many Central Asians are almost or are goras. Just look at Erdogan or Aliyev. They dress, posture, think like "goras". And you expect wit your village level Pakistani mentality to engage with Eurasia and make Pakistan a hub? Are you frikken joking ???

Great post and you hit bullseye. Any plan has to be based on solid foundation. Pipedreams don't work. The map yiou have drawn is based on solid facts and geography. Pakistan's coast and ports like Gwadar, Pasni, Ormara have Central Asia as their hinterland. In fact I did some calculation once and it appeared that even Russian Western Siberia, places like Novosibirsk are within Gwadar hinterland. All that is required is roads, rail and the walls built up from the British Raj and Russian Empire days being brought down. Pakistani's need to pull their heads out of "desi" ar*se and think Eurasian.

Instead of being Gangu Centric, which is legacy of British Raj -

View attachment 693564


Pakiostani's need to think Eurasia-centric where the future lies with enormous potential -


View attachment 693566
and you have a history of being American.

Its been 30 years since the fall of the "Iron Curtain" in Eurasia(Eastern Europe, Caucasus,Central Asia) and there is still this thinking and "dreams" of Pakistanis to expand into Eurasia with their "Moulvi" mindset no wonder the past 3 decades of political strategy have been a failure,Shirvan from Caspian Report btw he is Azerbaijani did a report sometime back on this subject you know what made the plans of the 1990s fail its because we had nothing in common with former Communist stans and their apparatchiks in power their elite and populace were heavily secularized compared to ours and despite a "brief" rise in Saudi money funneling to radicalize the populace the apparatchiks kept in control they only stan they succeed sort of was in Tajikstan which had a bloody civil war between 1991 and 1997 anyways Pakistan needs to have good ties with all Eurasian axis powers Moscow,Beijing,Ankara and Tehran these powers may have differing interests and goals perharps clashes but we should not pick one side over the other we need take advantage of all

In the 2nd paragraph you want to move away from China. In the 4th paragraph you want to involve China. Decide what you want.

If you want Turkmenistan to ship to countries other than China look at the atlas. It borders Iran and build your transport corridor and get it over. Shipping something over the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and then on land to Turkey and then shipping by sea is not economical.

You are right anyway you look at it - it is either Russia or Iran or China

Turkemenistan is generally less Moscow centric its deeply distrustful of Moscow the leadership prefers Chinese loans generally and Turkey is not trusted either weird isolated country

Agree we should explore participation in this....but certainly not as a rival to CPEC. We're not in the business of ditching true allies - and China is a true ally.

I would argue the sad fact in terms of the superpowers the "pork eating" Chinese "communists" are practically the go to ally for the Pakistani state

 

[Yankee-stani]

The Turks did win the Karabakh conflict but the jaws of victory was spoiled by Putin for the first time in 2 decades Troops from Moscow will be stationed in Azerbaijani territory Soviet/Russian troops left Azerbaijan fully in 1993 now they are back even though a corridor will give Ankara access to Caspian the Russian FSB and bases in Armenia and Azerbaijan will keep look at Ankara geo political moves however Russian presense is said to be only on "paper" until 2025 if post Soviet conflicts of the past show Russia does not leave at all unless countered like in 1980s Afghanistan but look at Georgia,Moldova and Ukraine as a good example and Azerbaijan under Aliyev isnt anti Moscow he prefers Balance between Ankara and Moscow so dont expect them to leave in 5 years

 

[FuturePAF]

In the 2nd paragraph you want to move away from China. In the 4th paragraph you want to involve China. Decide what you want.

If you want Turkmenistan to ship to countries other than China look at the atlas. It borders Iran and build your transport corridor and get it over. Shipping something over the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and then on land to Turkey and then shipping by sea is not economical.

You are right anyway you look at it - it is either Russia or Iran or China

Chinese investors like all investors are chasing ventures that will make them the most profit. The Central Asian republics, while still being under the influence of Russia, need investment if they want to grow their economies, especially with oil and gas prices being so low. Russia, being weary of Chinese influence in Central Asia may welcome Turkish investment in Central Asia as a hedge against Chinese influence. While the Chinese know this would diminish some of their influence it would also spread the costs to develop the region among the other powers.

Iran is a regional and international pariah, so a corridor through them may face political hardships. Besides, if there is a corridor built through Iran from Pakistan, it would be a Chinese venture under that massive $400 Billion investment deal China signed with them. Any products shipped through that route would probably be “flying” a Chinese flag.

While it may not be economically feasible for Pakistan to undertake such a venture itself, it can try to piggyback on the efforts of the Turks, who would have to find a way to make it economically feasible for their own sake. The Turks may also be willing to bare the high costs for strategic and political reasons. If Turkey could rehabilitate a Central Asia railroad, and a couple of Roll on Roll off ports in Baku and Turkmenbashi it maybe enough to draw foreign investors. Turkish influence with Central Asian leaders and certain Afghan warlords like Dostum would be crucial to this venture.

The Chinese investors in Pakistan would be processing and shipping back to China but also to global markets. If the costs vs. time to ship ratio make sense, then shipping by road or rail through Central Asia to Europe maybe economically feasible. This is all contingent on the political landscape in the coming years. Especially if Biden puts harsher sanctions on Russia, and Turkey finds a way back into the good graces of the western powers, at which point the US and Europe may back this corridor for strategic economic reasons.

Otherwise it may be more cost effective to ship time sensitive perishable products through China and Russia to Europe, cutting out Central Asia all together.

 

[nahtanbob]

Its been 30 years since the fall of the "Iron Curtain" in Eurasia(Eastern Europe, Caucasus,Central Asia) and there is still this thinking and "dreams" of Pakistanis to expand into Eurasia with their "Moulvi" mindset no wonder the past 3 decades of political strategy have been a failure,Shirvan from Caspian Report btw he is Azerbaijani did a report sometime back on this subject you know what made the plans of the 1990s fail its because we had nothing in common with former Communist stans and their apparatchiks in power their elite and populace were heavily secularized compared to ours and despite a "brief" rise in Saudi money funneling to radicalize the populace the apparatchiks kept in control they only stan they succeed sort of was in Tajikstan which had a bloody civil war between 1991 and 1997 anyways Pakistan needs to have good ties with all Eurasian axis powers Moscow,Beijing,Ankara and Tehran these powers may have differing interests and goals perharps clashes but we should not pick one side over the other we need take advantage of all

Seriously Iran is the most convenient route for Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan When the sanctions on Iran are removed it is going to take away couple of the stans.

Two of them Tajikstan and Kirghizstan have little in the way of natural resources.

Kazakhstan is the only real prize left.

 

[FuturePAF]

Seriously Iran is the most convenient route for Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan When the sanctions on Iran are removed it is going to take away couple of the stans.

Two of them Tajikstan and Kirghizstan have little in the way of natural resources.

Kazakhstan is the only real prize left.

Even the Indians have been studying the feasibility of these routes

http://www.aitd.net.in/pdf/3/5.%20TRANS-ASIAN%20RAILWAY%20-%20MISSING%20LINKS.pdf

And if the movie W is to be believed, Eurasian resources (not just Mideast resources) are expected to be important for future economic development. (With the low price of oil and gas, US fracking will become economically unfeasible, so imports will pick up again)

CSIS has been studying these routes as well

The Rise of China-Europe Railways

The emergence of China-Europe railways does not signal the return of a world in which overland trade dominates. The railways have found speed, but their scale remains limited.

www.csis.org

From 8:17-11:39

 

[nahtanbob]

And if the movie W is to be believed, Eurasian resources (not just Mideast resources) are expected to be important for future economic development. (With the low price of oil and gas, US fracking will become economically unfeasible, so imports will pick up again)

Keep in mind we are moving to emission free world to control climate change
Central Asia is of little interest unless they are helping in that regard

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

The Azerbaijan-Armenian war ended with Azerbaijan guaranteed a corridor to its western enclave. The Turks seem like they plan to invest a lot into this corridor along the Armenian-Iranian border. It’s ramifications on Iran and Iranian trade in oil maybe seen as giving this route a green light from the west.

Could this be the unique opportunity President Erdogan hoped for when offering to collaborate more with Pakistan when he met PM Imran Khan, and also the push now for better relations with Russia and a trade corridor through Afghanistan

It may all be speculation until something actually happens. It would certainly make good use of the infrastructure built as part of CPEC.

From 8:08

moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/11/24/the-emerging-nakhchivan-corridor/amp/

Turkey’s infrastructure projects, investments total almost $6B in 2020

Turkish Transportation Minister Karaismailoglu says a railway project connecting Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan to Turkey is being planned, and research for the project is near completion.

www.trtworld.com

Turkey to build gas pipeline to supply Nakhchivan

Turkey is fast-tracking a gas pipeline to supply Azerbaijan’s exclave of Nakhchivan, which would sideline Iranian gas sales to Azerbaijan and comes as Ankara is trying to repair its relationship with the U.S.

eurasianet.org

It's known as the Turan Corridor to connect Anatolia with Horasan...

Please note that the Muslim Civilization in Anatolia was built on the teachings of the Horasan Erens (Pioneers from Horasan) - the most notable amongst them is Mevlana Jelaleddin Rumi....

*Pakistan and Horasan are intricately interconnected

 

[FuturePAF]

Keep in mind we are moving to emission free world to control climate change
Central Asia is of little interest unless they are helping in that regard

Mining wise; cobalt and lithium for batteries can be mined in the region.

Potentially more importantly, the Chinese may need more arable land for their ever growing domestic food needs, and Eurasia is potentially the closest and most reliable large patch of underdeveloped farm land their companies can move into. The Soviets may not have had the means to properly farm the region, but the Chinese maybe getting ready to make a go of it.

The future will have to be both emission free and sustainable.

 

[nahtanbob]

Mining wise; cobalt and lithium for batteries can be mined in the region.

Potentially more importantly, the Chinese may need more arable land for their ever growing domestic food needs, and Eurasia is potentially the closest and most reliable large patch of underdeveloped farm land their companies can move into. The Soviets may not have had the means to properly farm the region, but the Chinese maybe getting ready to make a go of it.

The future will have to be both emission free and sustainable.

The Central Asian Republics are no where in the top 10 for cobalt and lithium
In terms of rainfall the Central Asian Republics are dry

Mining wise; cobalt and lithium for batteries can be mined in the region.

Potentially more importantly, the Chinese may need more arable land for their ever growing domestic food needs, and Eurasia is potentially the closest and most reliable large patch of underdeveloped farm land their companies can move into. The Soviets may not have had the means to properly farm the region, but the Chinese maybe getting ready to make a go of it.

The future will have to be both emission free and sustainable.

The Central Asian Republics are no where in the top 10 for cobalt and lithium
In terms of rainfall the Central Asian Republics are dry

 

[FuturePAF]

The Central Asian Republics are no where in the top 10 for cobalt and lithium
In terms of rainfall the Central Asian Republics are dry


The Central Asian Republics are no where in the top 10 for cobalt and lithium
In terms of rainfall the Central Asian Republics are dry

The relatively large lithium mine is in Afghanistan, but even if it turns out to not be as large, after some kind of Afghan peace process, could become open to foreign investors.

Foreign (Western, Turkish, and Chinese) investors would probably feel more comfortable putting up processing facilities in the more stable Pakistan, especially with the existing transportation network to ports and the global market.

Secondly, these mines, even if relatively smaller then other mines, are still located within Eurasia and therefore, territory that doesn’t need a SLOC to transport and defend.

 

[nahtanbob]

The relatively large lithium mine is in Afghanistan, but even if it turns out to not be as large, after some kind of Afghan peace process, could become open to foreign investors.

Foreign (Western, Turkish, and Chinese) investors would probably feel more comfortable putting up processing facilities in the more stable Pakistan, especially with the existing transportation network to ports and the global market.

Secondly, these mines, even if relatively smaller then other mines, are still located within Eurasia and therefore, territory that doesn’t need a SLOC to transport and defend.

no densely populated country has made it rich on mining and other natural resources
generally natural resources have been a curse to the common man in the third world countries

the world economy took off after maritime trade became common in the 16th century. why would anybody want to go back to land based trade ?