Guys!!! Is Pakistan in trouble regarding CPEC? Iran offers China

[somebozo]

irani working anti Pakistan prime example is when they seen Pakistan is providing Afghanistan land route for its supplies they construct Iran Afghan road and encourage Afghanis to do business through this route and stop from Pakistan and after that when they seen Pakistan Started Gawadar port they started work on Chahbahar small city where no need of any port they just want to snatch Pak Aghan Trade now they are lobbying against CPEC wich will become Hub for Pakistan China Afghanistan

We lived through the sanctions made nukes tested them and win...we test missiles in broad day light without any hue and cry...can the same be said about Iranians.?? NO...Iranian politicians are big thieves and after getting a boat load of foreign capital in the country they will do something silly so all capital gets stuck in the hands of Ayatollahs....and forigen companies lose it all!

It is true that

China and Iran mapped out a wide-ranging 25-year plan to broaden relations and expand trade during the first visit by a Chinese leader to the Islamic republic in 14 years.

"Today we discussed the strategic relationship between both countries, setting up a comprehensive 25-year plan and also promoting bilateral relations of up to $600 billion over the next 10 years," Rouhani said.

But this balance of trade is largely in Chinese favour in form of exports and CPEC will play its due duty here..because while Chahbar is very Iran centric...Gawadar gives equality convenient access to Iran and Arabia..

 

[dadeechi]

My eyes hurt but cant find a direct route..too many borders to cross...someone took their PhD in geography from Ayatollah University!

Don't get agitated my friend. I was only pointing out the fact that routes already exists between Iran and China.

Most of the routes were already functional since central Asian republics were part of USSR.

The below route already exists

Mashhad (Iran) => Tedzhen) (Turkmenistan) => Bukhara (Uzbekistan) => Samarkand (Uzbekistan) => Tashkent (Uzbekistan) =>Almaty (Kazakhstan) =>Urumqi (China)

As you know India is planning to do develop Chabahar port (Iran) which would be connected to Mashhad (Iran) through Zahedan (Iran) . So in summary India would have access to Russia through Iran & Central Asia.

China could very well use the same route.

 

[krash]

Iran is not jealous from Pakistan, but Pakistan is jealous from Iran. Iran can provide safer route but Pakistan can't.

And what route would that be? From Chabahar to Tehran and then back again?

You are probably too much high. See previous posts; China can easily bypass Afghanistan and Pakistan to reach Iran. When you get into your senses, see world map.

You should have also read the dozens of responses amply explaining how hilariously stupid that alternative route is. Now when you come to your senses kindly read the whole thread before pushing ludicrous posts which have already been answered.

 

[GoldenRatio1618]

Don't get agitated my friend. I was only pointing out the fact that routes already exists between Iran and China.

Most of the routes were already functional since central Asian republics were part of USSR.

The below route already exists

Mashhad (Iran) => Tedzhen) (Turkmenistan) => Bukhara (Uzbekistan) => Samarkand (Uzbekistan) => Tashkent (Uzbekistan) =>Almaty (Kazakhstan) =>Urumqi (China)

As you know India is planning to do develop Chabahar port (Iran) which would be connected to Mashhad (Iran) through Zahedan (Iran) . So in summary India would have access to Russia through Iran & Central Asia.

China could very well use the same route.


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what ever indian do But chinese are our trusted friend they need short route that is only through Pakistan and they need Navy Base for them best Place is at Gawadar to keep watch USA, Keep Watch India, Keep Watch on their cargo ships.

 

[dadeechi]

what ever indian they do But chinese are our trusted friend they need short rout that is only through Pakistan and they need Navy Base for them best Place is at Gawadar to keep watch USA, Keep Watch India, Keep Watch Russia.

You got me wrong. As I said earlier the route to Iran would run in parallel to CPEC and would act as a contingency to mitigate any risk.

 

[Nilgiri]

You got me wrong. As I said earlier the route to Iran would run in parallel to CPEC and would act as a contingency to mitigate any risk.

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Many Pakistanis want CPEC to be the be-all end-all of Chinese access to Indian ocean....so don't be surprised at some of the responses you get here when Iran is brought into the equation .

Competition and hedging is only a natural thing to happen in the world.

 

[CriticalThinker02]

You got me wrong. As I said earlier the route to Iran would run in parallel to CPEC and would act as a contingency to mitigate any risk.

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The CPEC route according to your pic is the shortest route and only goes through ONE country, a very friendly and a pro china country, other routes go through multiple countries including turkey, iran, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan , Uzbekistan, Krygystan and Turkministan and are twice as long, when it comes to being the risk factor, CPEC is the safest of the three.

BTW do you really think that middle eastern Arab countries are going to trade with China through Iran? and even with Chabahar port it's going to go through Pakistan again one country, btw are you aware of how many lives that were lost in building the Karakorum highway, it's regarded as the most dangerous road in the world because the highway was literally carved out through high mountains, does such a highway exist through the mountains of Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan or Tajikistan?

 

[dadeechi]

The CPEC route according to your pic is the shortest route and only goes through ONE country, a very friendly and a pro china country, other routes go through multiple countries including turkey, iran, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan , Uzbekistan, Krygystan and Turkministan and are twice as long, when it comes to being the risk factor, CPEC is the safest of the three.

BTW do you really think that middle eastern Arab countries are going to trade with China though Iran? and even with Chabahar port it's going to go through Pakistan again one country, btw are you aware of how many lives that were lost in building the Karakorum highway, it's regarded as the most dangerous road in the world because the highway was literally carved out through high mountains, does such a highway exist through the mountains of Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan or Tajikistan?

No doubt that CPEC is shortest and passes through a single country but there are risks too as I mentioned earlier. Any major nation would always hedge their bets.

The Iran-China route already exists and very well would be used.

Now any investment needs to have ROI. I do not know the details of the ROI for CPEC where it would be primarily be used by China but incase of the trans central Asian route, Russia, China & India would all be using those routes which only means that there is bound to be better ROI for the infrastructure hosting country to get paid enough to pay back the loans while generating revenues for themselves.

With regards to your question on if Saudia would allow trade through Iran to China, even if Saudia does not allow, the route would be supported by the Oil & Gas resources from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia which itself is a big chunk.

 

[GoldenRatio1618]

No doubt that CPEC is shortest and passes through a single country but there are risks too as I mentioned earlier. Any major nation would always hedge their bets.

The Iran-China route already exists and very well would be used.

Now any investment needs to have ROI. I do not know the details of the ROI for CPEC where it would be primarily be used by China but incase of the trans central Asian route, Russia, China & India would all be using those routes which only means that there is bound to be better ROI for the infrastructure hosting country to get paid enough to pay back the loans while generating revenues for themselves.

With regards to your question on if Saudia would allow trade through Iran to China, even if Saudia does not allow, the route would be supported by the Oil & Gas resources from Iraq, Syria, Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia which itself is a big chunk.

Don't worry indians... our Chinese friends have more super computers to count their Return on Investment (ROI) in advance and more advance brains to calculate each step what they move for the prime example of their calculated move building Gawadar port and now 46 billion dollar CPEC and today express news soucess reported that iran agreed a rail link between Chahbahar to Gawadar and later this link will connect CPEC...

 

[Osiris]

Biggest problem China faces is, that CPEC passes through a disputed area.

Tomorrow if a war breaks down between Indian and Pakistan and Line of Control changes (as has happened in previous India-Pakistan war), then entire 46 Billion investment will be down drain.

Cease fire line of 1948 Karachi agreement was altered in 1971, and the new areas captured by India in Kashmir and Line of control came into being after Shimla agreement.

Thats is why China has been pushing Pakistan settle LOC with India into International border and to make GB a province of Pakistan.

But if Pakistan does that, it violates UN resolutions and losses claim to rest of the Kashmir.

Hence the Pakistani dilemma.

 

[jupiter2007]

obviously the route will have to go through multiple countries, but I wouldn't see this as a negative. this means China can built inroads into these countries!! economically and politically.

This might be a backup plan just in case if the route via Pakistan doesn't workout.
It will be a big loss of Pakistan.

 

[dadeechi]

Biggest problem China faces is, that CPEC passes through a disputed area.

Tomorrow if a war breaks down between Indian and Pakistan and Line of Control changes (as has happened in previous India-Pakistan war), then entire 46 Billion investment will be down drain.

Cease fire line of 1948 Karachi agreement was altered in 1971, and the new areas captured by India in Kashmir and Line of control came into being after Shimla agreement.

Thats is why China has been pushing Pakistan settle LOC with India into International border and to make GB a province of Pakistan.

But if Pakistan does that, it violates UN resolutions and losses claim to rest of the Kashmir.

Hence the Pakistani dilemma.

Absolutely, that is the biggest risk for CPEC apart from the spill of insurgency from Afghanistan. That was the reason why China has been prodding Pakistan to settle the Kashmir dispute with India.

 

[somebozo]

obviously the route will have to go through multiple countries, but I wouldn't see this as a negative. this means China can built inroads into these countries!! economically and politically.

Is China spending its inlaws inheritance to be such reckless?? The route is neither viable economically due to start from Zero vs upgrading in a country which already has the required roads? Further Chinese shipments coming via Iran will be a big No No for Arabs! Third is the physical disability of being too long!

Well thats a real wild stretch of imagination and defies what we call common sense and logic.
The proposed route wont only increase the distance three times but the transportation costs as well and isnt safe any more than Pakistan.

Besides its not only about money always China wants a stable and prosperous Pakistan to keep India in check which wont be possible with Iran as she shares cozy relation with India.

Any turbulence(whether political or militancy) can at max delay it by a year or two but all stakeholders know thats the only way out for both China and Pakistan.

Btw the more countries you involve the more trouble you are asking for while China-Pak corridor gets China in one go straight into Arabia sea though I personally strongly support China should help Iran in building Chabahar instead of India and Pakistan and Iran should link these ports by train and ferry service.

think of the time when every country decides to take a share of tax on Chinese exports! Or when strait of Hrmouz is closed or worst yet bombed

No doubt that CPEC is shortest and passes through a single country but there are risks too as I mentioned earlier. Any major nation would always hedge their bets.

The Iran-China route already exists and very well would be used.

.

Please have some burnol.

Biggest problem China faces is, that CPEC passes through a disputed area.

Tomorrow if a war breaks down between Indian and Pakistan and Line of Control changes (as has happened in previous India-Pakistan war), then entire 46 Billion investment will be down drain.

Cease fire line of 1948 Karachi agreement was altered in 1971, and the new areas captured by India in Kashmir and Line of control came into being after Shimla agreement.

Thats is why China has been pushing Pakistan settle LOC with India into International border and to make GB a province of Pakistan.

But if Pakistan does that, it violates UN resolutions and losses claim to rest of the Kashmir.

Hence the Pakistani dilemma.

Pakistan ceded a chunk of disputed territory to China earlier and settled its borders permanently - it is now regarded as a the most peaceful border in the world.

Now we are annexing GB and soon we will also strike more favourable position with AJK with more economic benefits.


What can Indians do about all this?? NIL, Nadda, ZERO!
There is one thing Indians know from 1991 experience..no one will come to bail them out financially...Where as Pakistan has plethora of option even at times of deep bankruptcy!

 

[dadeechi]

Don't worry indians... our Chinese friends have more super computers to count their Return on Investment (ROI) in advance and more advance brains to calculate each step what they move for the prime example of their calculated move building Gawadar port and now 46 billion dollar CPEC and today express news soucess reported that iran agreed a rail link between Chahbahar to Gawadar and later this link will connect CPEC...

You have to consider the benefits and risks from both Chinese as well as Pakistan's perspective

If CPEC fails China would fallback on the Iranian, Myanmar and Thai corridors but from Pakistan's perspective you would have a huge loan & interest to pay back with no new revenue generation. How is Pakistan planning it's risk mitigation? The answer is in the resolution of Kashmir issue with India. Now I know many here would not like it.

 

[somebozo]

You have to consider the benefits and risks from both Chinese as well as Pakistan's perspective

If CPEC fails China would fallback on the Iranian, Myanmar and Thai corridors but from Pakistan's perspective you would have a huge loan & interest to pay back with no new revenue generation. How is Pakistan planning it's risk mitigation? The answer is in the resolution of Kashmir issue with India. Now I know many here would not like it.

CPEC is not failing anywhere more like Indian terrorist and assets operating in Balochistan and Pak-Afghan border are failing..