Guys!!! Is Pakistan in trouble regarding CPEC? Iran offers China

[Finer]

One small hint is which one is being built? That 5 nation route through chahbahar or cpec through gwadar??

Gawadar Port. That is ground route, cheaper and no hassle, which connects from Iran to Turkey and Middle East and on other side, Central Asia and China to Russia. More countries will get involved.

Whereas Chahbahar port is based on sea route, expensive and a lot of hassles on sea routes. For the project to operate on ground route, it is possible through Balochistan hence foreign-funded anti-Pakistani propaganda on Balochistan to separate Balochistan from Pakistan, or through Pakistan officially to Afghanistan leaving open accessible to Central Asia and whatnot.

Recently, Pakistan just denied India an access to Pakistan-Afghanistan trade transit which angered India no doubt, but as usual, left Afghanistan speechless and helpless not to pull out of Pakistan-Afghanistan transit.

I am not surprised. China is likely to explore alternative methods to gain access to ports in the Indian Ocean (i.e. contingency plan). Supposedly, if CPEC doesn't works for China as envisioned, it is wise for China to have a PLAN - B.

The above being said, alternative options do not jeopardize the CPEC project. Fellow Pakistani should not panic from such developments. China is simply protecting her interests.

CPEC is a fantastic project. It have the potential to spur economic growth in Pakistan. However, Pakistan needs to play its cards right in the geopolitical arena to ensure its long-term success.

Pakistan is not problem. It is usual that anarchist PTI continues to create more problems for Pakistan making CPEC as political hostage never mind its history of holding cities and towns as hostage earlier gone unnoticed. PTI is huge problem for Pakistan. The sooner that anarchist PTI is dealt with, the better for Pakistan and its economy in the long run.

 

[alimobin memon]

I don't know if it will work. But I am sure if China abandons and choose Iran. than Pakistan will be the only one facing issue.

 

[B+ Dracula]

People talking about Oil trade through CPEC miss a big point.

China's main oil imports would come from Russia, Iran, Iraq & Syria as they would trade in Yuan instead of Dollars.

China would no longer need any Oil from GCC.

China is in the process of dumping its dollars holdings by acquiring assets and investing in infrastructure projects around the world.


Gwadar would primarily be used as a Chinese Naval base while CPEC would be used for importing natural resources from Africa. There would not be any oil imports through CPEC.

It appears chinese are interested to buy Oil & Gas from all the major stakeholders in the world to make them please that include Russia,Turkmen,Iran etc ...Maybe it wont matter for Chinese bcoz their Oil Import bill are touching new highs everyday ....and by judging their mentality they are taking everyone under their thumb impression
.
I agree with your above points but Chinese are Torch bearer of new Eastern Blcok thats fulfills their direct and indirect goals simultaneously

 

[dadeechi]

I am not surprised. China is likely to explore alternative methods to gain access to ports in the Indian Ocean (i.e. contingency plan). Supposedly, if CPEC doesn't works for China as envisioned, it is wise for China to have a PLAN - B.

The above being said, alternative options do not jeopardize the CPEC project. Fellow Pakistani should not panic from such developments. China is simply protecting her interests.

CPEC is a fantastic project. It have the potential to spur economic growth in Pakistan. However, Pakistan needs to play its cards right in the geopolitical arena to ensure its long-term success.

Very well said.

I don't know if it will work. But I am sure if China abandons and choose Iran. than Pakistan will be the only one facing issue.

China is not abandoning Pakistan.

 

[Viper 94]

the whole point of CPEC is to give china direct access to the indian ocean
so the ships going to china don't have to pass through the indian controlled seas, strait of malacca, the disputed south china sea and Taiwan
the iranian proposed route is going in exact opposite direction passing through 5 different countries

 

[dadeechi]

One small hint is which one is being built? That 5 nation route through chahbahar or cpec through gwadar??

The Iranian route already exists. Check my earlier posts on this thread. In fact the Pakistan route also exists today. It is just being upgraded along with some other infrastructure.

Following are key reasons for Chinese interest in CPEC and Oil trade is not one of them.

1) Chinese Naval base in Gwadar

2) Trade with Africa - primarily for natural resources

3) Investments in (Loans to) Pakistan to generate revenue for China

4) Chinese exports to Pakistan

5) Create jobs for Chinese who would work on Infrastructure projects in Pakistan

 

[Mrc]

Can some one point out the iranian route more accurately rather than drawing semi circular line through world map ?, who built it and why? Is it working today and why not?

 

[MadDog]

The Iranian route already exists. Check my earlier posts on this thread. In fact the Pakistan route also exists today. It is just being upgraded along with some other infrastructure.

Following are key reasons for Chinese interest in CPEC and Oil trade is not one of them.

1) Chinese Naval base in Gwadar

2) Trade with Africa - primarily for natural resources

3) Investments in (Loans to) Pakistan to generate revenue for China

4) Chinese exports to Pakistan

5) Create jobs for Chinese who would work on Infrastructure projects in Pakistan

Oil trade shall be an important component, as chinese face malacca dellima , where US navy can choke them anytime at strait of malacca a bottle neck between Malaysia & Indonesia. Infact oil was the major reason of chinese interest in CPEC. Even if chinese get iranian oil it will go through cpec, the other route through Turkmenistan is 3-4 times costlier , for oil supplies it would be a logistic nightmare to pass through 4-5 countries, plus the time it would take to reach western china would quadruple. Chinese aren't idiots, they need to develop western regions bring them at par with their eastern regions, why on earth would they use a route which is highly expensive & not even viable, investments are done keeping profits in mind not losses, chinese planners are not kids , they will be working for their interests !!!

 

[MadDog]

I hope this helps

 

[Mansoor-Ur-Rehman]

Trade route with Iran is not possible.
Reason is Iran has soft corer for India . so in case of confortration with india . china,s SLOC doesn't get disturbed.

 

[dadeechi]

Trade route with Iran is not possible.
Reason is Iran has soft corer for India . so in case of confortration with india . china,s SLOC doesn't get disturbed.

Iran is an independent country and they deal with each country on their own merit. Be it Russia, China or India.

Oil trade shall be an important component, as chinese face malacca dellima , where US navy can choke them anytime at strait of malacca a bottle neck between Malaysia & Indonesia. Infact oil was the major reason of chinese interest in CPEC. Even if chinese get iranian oil it will go through cpec, the other route through Turkmenistan is 3-4 times costlier , for oil supplies it would be a logistic nightmare to pass through 4-5 countries, plus the time it would take to reach western china would quadruple. Chinese aren't idiots, they need to develop western regions bring them at par with their eastern regions, why on earth would they use a route which is highly expensive & not even viable, investments are done keeping profits in mind not losses, chinese planners are not kids , they will be working for their interests !!!

It is true that China trying to build alternatives to strait of Malacca but CPEC is just one of the many route that are being planned - Kra canal in Thailand, Myanmar, Iran etc.

Note that Rail road from Iran to China already exists. The route actuals passes through countries which actually have & sell Oil & Gas (O&G) to China (Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan)

Also, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan all are willing to sell O&G in Yuan while Chinese need to purchase the same in dollars from GCC. Incase of sanctions/war, this would be even more important for China.

 

[Mansoor-Ur-Rehman]

Can u give any reference on Iran or Russia willingness on trade in yuan????

 

[dadeechi]

Can some one point out the iranian route more accurately rather than drawing semi circular line through world map ?, who built it and why? Is it working today and why not?

I have already posted the details earlier on this thread

Guys!!! Is Pakistan in trouble regarding CPEC? Iran offers China | Page 7

Guys!!! Is Pakistan in trouble regarding CPEC? Iran offers China | Page 7

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