Geopolitics of ASEAN+ region

[jaunty]

Kalu_Miah please include India in your ASEAN+, we don't want to be left out

 

[Thomas]

My personal view is that with China's continuous rise, if US is eventually replaced by China as the world's No. 1 power, only when this new reality looks like a certain outcome, lets say in 10-20 years time frame, will Japan and South Korea defect the US non-NATO alliance team and perhaps join ASEAN to create a more powerful ASEAN+, which will still be somewhat dependent on US/West, but also not unfriendly towards China.

Never going to happen because as the years go on Chinese aggression over regional resources will become even more pronounced.

 

[EastSea]

@kalu-miah

Let me tell you a little secret, if it wasn't because of China around there is an ambitious nation would swallowed up some ASEAN country one by one. What do you think the actual purpose of 1979 war?

Sino Vietnam war is made by mad man Deng and his extremist followers, he believed that with backing of new master USA, China could play new role in region. China showed his aggressive face too early with attack on Hoang Sa of Vietnam 1974. USA is happy now, talking to non-involve but use it best for return region.

 

[kalu_miah]

ASEAN needs both China and the US, and also India and Russia., for the interests of each country, and is also a game of balance forces.
But Russians are now only interested in the ASEAN's weapons market.
India has a growing relationship with ASEAN, along with her ​​development.

If you think China will help ASEAN to develop strong, it is also possible, but it's hard to see...
More intuitive, let us look at Myanmar. Before, China was almost a power presence in Myanmar. And what were results?
And here, let us look at the map below. China cares the interests of ASEAN countries or only for her interests, like this map?

If you think that ASEAN does not want the presence of both the US and China, which is good, but it is only theory, not reality.

Most ASEAN countries want to benefit from China rising, but they don't want to be dominant by China. Therefore, they also expect the strong presence of the US. It's a game of ASEAN...

Battle of Bach Dang River, that was an excellent post. Its the South East and East Asian geopolitical chess game or great game, whatever you like to call it. Moves are being made as we speak.

ASEAN-10 countries bring with them their previous history of alliances and enmities, so these will have lingering effects. But as the regional group ASEAN gets more integrated with time and expand with new members, it is hoped that people will develop a more common group identity out of necessity of survival against outside threats, like they say, united we stand, divided we fall or "Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno" One for all, all for one. So even if China is a friendly nation to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka now, if we are to become part of ASEAN and become part of security architecture based on ASEAN, then in a conflict situation with China vs ASEAN, both Bangladeshi's and Sri Lankan's will need to contribute troops and die for ASEAN, that is the nature of the game, just like NATO soldiers are dying in Afghanistan.

Of course ASEAN+ will have intimate and continuing relations with neighbor powers China, India, Russia and ANZ as well as global power USA (as mentioned in OP), these relationships will evolve with time with their own unique dynamics.

Chinese exploitation of Myanmar's resources and attempt at monopolization is a good case in point, so is this South China Sea debacle. The Chinese will have to grow out of their current behavior patterns, which will be self-defeating if continued in the long term, as others like USA and India are just waiting to take advantage of Chinese mistakes.

Regardless of Chinese current trends, I am hoping that the Chinese will eventually become a mature and responsible power in a few decades. Democratization of the Communist party will probably help bring out better strategic calculations from a much wider more talented team within China. But as long as there is limitation on Chinese approaches, powers like USA and India will have relevance in this space. Like you said that is the nature of this game of geopolitical chess game.

I want to believe that ASEAN would be able to unite as a regional bloc, but at the moment, this is just a dream. The other SEA nations are more of letting Vietnam and the Philippines deal with the SCS disputes while they wait and watch the development like its a noontime drama.

The water region over there could be shared by the nations with real legal claims, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.

Patience my friend, patience. The game is just starting. Without these conflicts and aggression, ASEAN would only remain a talking shop. Only when something bad happens, people of the region will feel the need to unite. I would say people are watching and learning and these will be reflected in the next moves in the years to come.

 

[ahfatzia]

China never wants to be a part of ASEAN other than an active participant and as an observer. She has big stakes in the well beings of ASEAN membership nations and she wants to be sure they are thriving. For one, individually, they are her close neighbors/trading partners, and together ASEAN could be her most devoted ally and vice versa in the future. Secondly most of her Diasporas living among these countries and is very natural for her to wish the best for them.

Because of all the above reasons, there shouldn't be any doubts about her sincerity. Don't take me wrong by saying it's almost like China is like a mother who genuinely cares about her children.

 

[kalu_miah]

Hehe, maybe US's plan is staying in Malacca strait until 2080, just like US wanted to stay in South VietNam forever, but we will find out the way to send them back to their home sweet home much more earlier

With Russia support, our Sub-Marine base will soon complete, and then, it's the perfect time to deal with US-China in Malacca strait.

Don't forget our Russia boss is supper power nation too. and we also have Carrier-killer Shaddock missile with its warhead up to 1,000kg. one hit, one carrier killed

US/West has a combined GDP of 34 trillion, whereas China+Taiwan is around 8 trillion, so fall of the US/West is not going to be sudden, but I think it will be a gradual shift of power over many decades. But 2080 is 70 years from now, I am not sure if it will take that long for China+Taiwan to surpass the US/West economically and militarily, although it is possible, especially if US/West suddenly improves upon its dismal internal economic policies and external geopolitics, from the current debilitating mess we are seeing now.

But countering the Chinese or the US (they are not on the same team, US will be mostly siding with ASEAN) with some Russian built submarines or missiles will be difficult. We ASEAN+ can reach parity with China or US, only when South Korea and Japan decides to join us and we can utilize their achievements in science, technology and management skills.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

@kalu-miah

Let me tell you a little secret, if it wasn't because of China around there is an ambitious nation would swallowed up some ASEAN country one by one. What do you think the actual purpose of 1979 war?

The existence of China is essential for ASEAN, anyone who denies it is a fool.

 

[kalu_miah]

@kalu-miah

Let me tell you a little secret, if it wasn't because of China around there is an ambitious nation would swallowed up some ASEAN country one by one. What do you think the actual purpose of 1979 war?

I am just beginning to get into the recent history of the region, thanks for bringing this up. I just went through this wiki article:
Sino-Vietnamese War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

All I can say about the Vietnamese is that for a relative small country, this country and its people show incredible intestinal fortitude or guts. I guess their history with Yuan invasions were also good example.

From my first reading, it looks like China failed to gain its objective to get the Vietnamese to withdraw from Cambodia from this costly war. Was there another motive?

The Original Post leaves out any mention of Australia.

The OP does mention ANZ as a neighbor power. ANZ was left out mainly because people I have talked to including Koreans I know, feel that they want an exclusively "Asian" space, dominated initially by Japan and South Korea, which ANZ populations may not be comfortable with. And of course there is the issue of ANZ being really an integral part of the West, although being a remote outpost.

Kalu_Miah please include India in your ASEAN+, we don't want to be left out

India is mentioned as a neighbor power. It was not included because India itself is a large union of sorts and its inclusion will leave it the single most dominant power with billion plus population, which is not acceptable to most existing and future members. India cannot be included for the same reason China cannot be included in ASEAN+, as it defeats the whole purpose of such union of small states. For details please see the philosophy behind this and other regional groups:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/164048-kalu_miahs-new-world-order-road-map-future.html

Never going to happen because as the years go on Chinese aggression over regional resources will become even more pronounced.

Never say never in politics and geopolitics. Change is the only thing that is permanent.

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

@kalu-miah

Let me tell you a little secret, if it wasn't because of China around there is an ambitious nation would swallowed up some ASEAN country one by one. What do you think the actual purpose of 1979 war?

You want to talk about Vietnam?
It is stupid if think that a country was exhausted by Vietnam war like Vietnam in the 1970s could threaten other Asean countries.
We just had to take up arms to fight against the Khmer Rouge, after being attacked along the border during 1975-1978. They were brutally killed thousands of Vietnamese civilians living near the border.
We also helped Cambodian people escape from Khmer Rouge regime, an excellent pupil of Maoism, a savage genocide regime in human history, a Chinese ally.

Defend the Khmer Rouge was a most shameful of Chinese, as well as other countries, UN...
PM Hun Sen once said, Where were "powers" while Cambodians were killed by the Khmer Rouge genocide in many years? and only a poor friend Vietnam helped Cambodians people escape from the genocidal PolPot.

Where were your mouth powers during that years?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ba_Chuc_Massacre

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

You want to talk about Vietnam?
It is stupid if think that a country was exhausted by Vietnam war like Vietnam in the 1970s could threaten other Asean countries.
We just had to take up arms to fight against the Khmer Rouge, after being attacked along the border during 1975-1978. They were brutally killed thousands of Vietnamese civilians living near the border.
We also helped Cambodian people escape from Khmer Rouge regime, an excellent pupil of Maoism, a savage genocide regime in human history, an Chinese ally.

Defend the Khmer Rouge was a most shameful of Chinese, as well as other countries, UN...
PM Hun Sen once said, Where were "powers" while Cambodians were killed by the Khmer Rouge genocide in many years? and only a poor friend Vietnam helped Cambodians people escape from the genocidal PolPot.

Where were your mouth powers during that years?

China only wants the fair trade with ASEAN, while Vietnam dreams to conquer all ASEAN nations one by one.

Big difference here.

 

[NiceGuy]

US/West has a combined GDP of 34 trillion, whereas China+Taiwan is around 8 trillion, so fall of the US/West is not going to be sudden, but I think it will be a gradual shift of power over many decades. But 2080 is 70 years from now, I am not sure if it will take that long for China+Taiwan to surpass the US/West economically and militarily, although it is possible, especially if US/West suddenly improves upon its dismal internal economic policies and external geopolitics, from the current debilitating mess we are seeing now.
.

No one knows when a supper power collapse, bro. supper power Soviet union could be a very good example, so, we'd better to prepare for any case may happen.

When US colllapse, then ASEAN must strong enough that time to protect Malacca strait, other while, China will rob it away.

But countering the Chinese or the US (they are not on the same team, US will be mostly siding with ASEAN) with some Russian built submarines or missiles will be difficult. We ASEAN+ can reach parity with China or US, only when South Korea and Japan decides to join us and we can utilize their achievements in science, technology and management skills.

in 1979, we didn't have any sub-marine, but we still fought against both US-China in VN-Laos's borders , Cambodia-Thailand's territories and we defeated both China-Us there. So, when we have more powerful weapon, it will be easier to defeat them both again.

btw: Japan, SK are Vn's friend now, and we're learning alot from them now. Malacca trait is important to Japan-SK too, so they surely will tie-up friendship with ASEAN.

The existence of China is essential for ASEAN, anyone who denies it is a fool

Yep, China is a good cash cow for ASEAN, we can't let our cash cow run away

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Yep, China is a good cash cow for ASEAN, we can't let our cash cow run away

Ok, lets say China is a cash cow for them, then they also view Vietnam as a hungry wolf, that's why nobody in ASEAN trusts you.

 

[ahfatzia]

I am just beginning to get into the recent history of the region, thanks for bringing this up. I just went through this wiki article:
Sino-Vietnamese War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

All I can say about the Vietnamese is that for a relative small country, this country and its people show incredible intestinal fortitude or guts. I guess their history with Yuan invasions were also good example.

From my first reading, it looks like China failed to gain its objective to get the Vietnamese to withdraw from Cambodia from this costly war. Was there another motive?



The OP does mention ANZ as a neighbor power.

There no doubt Vietnam and her people have resilient strength and great determination and can go far if peace exist for duration.

Among China's objectives in 1979 was to stop Vietnam's westward expansion or at least that's how China perceived it at the time and the invasion did snub that ambition. Remember both Cambodia and Laos were failed states that can be easily took over by Vietnam. One can argue Vietnam did not leave Cambodia in 1979, but then she wouldn't know what actions China would be if she continued to occupy Cambodia. And besides Vietnam did achieve her intended goal of removing Pol Pot anyway so she withdrew.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

There no doubt Vietnam and her people have resilient strength and great determination and can go far if peace exist for duration.

Among China's objectives in 1979 was to stop Vietnam's westward expansion or at least that's how China perceived it at the time and the invasion did snub that ambition. Remember both Cambodia and Laos were failed states that can be easily took over by Vietnam. One can argue Vietnam did not leave Cambodia in 1979, but then she wouldn't know what actions China would be if she continued to occupy Cambodia. And besides Vietnam did achieve her intended goal of removing Pol Pot anyway so she withdrew.

The southern part of Vietnam was originally the land of Khmers, hopefully more young Khmer nationalists could realize it in the future.

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

China never wants to be a part of ASEAN other than an active participant and as an observer. She has big stakes in the well beings of ASEAN membership nations and she wants to be sure they are thriving. For one, individually, they are her close neighbors/trading partners, and together ASEAN could be her most devoted ally and vice versa in the future. Secondly most of her Diasporas living among these countries and is very natural for her to wish the best for them.

Because of all the above reasons, there shouldn't be any doubts about her sincerity. Don't take me wrong by saying it's almost like China is like a mother who genuinely cares about her children.

Your leaders don't think so, they have actions seems contrary to your thinking. I must say that I always admired the leadership of Singapore, who is extremely smart. Evidence that they have agreed to Uncle Sam to deploy 4 warships the most modern highspeed in Singapore. And they said: Uncle Sam is indispensable...

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