Geopolitics of ASEAN+ region

[iajj]

Lets discuss the issue of ASEAN expansion. Currently there are 10 members, which countries do you think will be added next? And what would be ASEAN's final list of countries?

China will eventually understand that a united ASEAN or ASEAN+ is in its best interest, because it will reduce outside interference from US, India or Russia in this region and it will be a big economic partner of China.

china understands that perfectly well; it understands that east and southeast asia is its lebensraum and will have no problem to see asean expanding to include bonzi and nipponzi. but china is also humble and knows the limit to its military power and economic dominance: WE DO NOT WANT NEW GUINEA IN ASEAN!

 

[kalu_miah]

china understands that perfectly well; it understands that east and southeast asia is its lebensraum and will have no problem to see asean expanding to include bonzi and nipponzi. but china is also humble and knows the limit to its military power and economic dominance: WE DO NOT WANT NEW GUINEA IN ASEAN!

Who is bonzi and nipponzi, Korean and Japanese?

Excellent, actually supporting ASEAN as a group has been PRC policy for decades (the link paper in OP), to reduce US, ANZ or future Indian or any outside influence in the region. By supporting ASEAN+ which will include Korea (N+S) and Japan, it will help to reduce US/West influence in East Asia and eventually remove US bases in South Korea and Japan.

PNG is neighbor to Indonesia and ANZ but has some kind of partnership with ANZ, I don't have much information on this, we can look into it in detail.

What do you think about inclusion of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, East Timor and Maldives in ASEAN?

If China helps integration of ASEAN+, it can be a strong strategic ally, as well as the biggest economic partner with a population of one billion.

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

Lets discuss the issue of ASEAN expansion. Currently there are 10 members, which countries do you think will be added next? And what would be ASEAN's final list of countries?



China will eventually understand that a united ASEAN or ASEAN+ is in its best interest, because it will reduce outside interference from US, India or Russia in this region and it will be a big economic partner of China.

China definitely is part of SE Asia, and it is a key economic partner of ASEAN or a future ASEAN+.

No, my friend. In my opinion, China does not want to see an ASEAN instability, but she also does not want to see an ASEAN solidarity and cohesive closely, especially in disputes status the SCS today.
One thing that many people do not know, ASEAN would be very easy to fall into the state of disunity under China's intentions if without the US in the region.

If ASEAN closer links with Japan, South Korea but without her, she would definitely jump up.

But of course, China would not protest if Bangladesh joined ASEAN.

I think, the next country to join ASEAN, most likely as Timor Leste, then could be Bangladesh and Papua New Guinea...

 

[kalu_miah]

No, my friend. In my opinion, China does not want to see an ASEAN instability, but she also does not want to see an ASEAN solidarity and cohesive closely, especially in disputes status the SCS today.
One thing that many people do not know, ASEAN would be very easy to fall into the state of disunity under China's intentions if without the US in the region.

If ASEAN closer links with Japan, South Korea but without her, she would definitely jump up.

But of course, China would not protest if Bangladesh joined ASEAN.

I think, the next country to join ASEAN, most likely as Timor Leste, then could be Bangladesh and Papua New Guinea...

I think I understand what you are saying, China supports ASEAN, but it does not want ASEAN or ASEAN+ to become like United States of East Asia, which may become a threat for it in the future.

But for China, if they really want to reduce US and Indian influence in this region, they need to help the formation of a strong ASEAN+ union, which can become a United States of East Asia in the future, otherwise the US bases in Okinawa and South Korea will continue to be there and whenever there is any issue between China and any other ASEAN or East Asian states (South Korea or Japan), like what we have today in SCS dispute with Vietnam and Philippines, the USA and/or India will take these opportunities to get involved, backed up by their local bases (in case of USA) and maritime blue water forces. If China helps the formation of a strong and united ASEAN+, like NATO, then ASEAN+ will remain allied with China.

The way I see it is that, there is definitely a need and viability for ASEAN+ among all its member states, but it cannot happen without support from one or both of top two powers, USA and China. If China comes forward and help unite ASEAN+, it will ally with China, on the other hand, if USA comes forward, it will lean more towards USA. The ideal situation is that if both China and USA compete and extend their help, then it will remain allied with both or become kind of a neutral entity and not side with China or USA, in case of any conflict and would rather mediate and resolve conflicts between China and USA.

ASEAN+ states of course will continue to have trade and economic relations with other powers and regions of the world, including Russia and India.

Many Indian posters are under the impression that India is a better candidate than Bangladesh to join ASEAN, please let me know your thoughts about this. I get inputs from a Korean individual from time to time, and inclusion of India or China is out of the question according to this person, because neither Japan or Korea want to be dominated by a large country within this union, as it will diminish their leadership position. Indonesia and Bangladesh, although they are large, they are not in the scale of China or India. Both nations (Indonesia and Bangladesh) will follow leadership of Japan and South Korea, whereas that is not necessarily true in case of India or China.

I saw iajj from China did not want PNG to become a part of ASEAN, I wonder why? Could the following have anything to do with this feeling?
Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

 

[NiceGuy]

I think I understand what you are saying, China supports ASEAN, but it does not want ASEAN or ASEAN+ to become like United States of East Asia, which may become a threat for it in the future.

But for China, if they really want to reduce US and Indian influence in this region, they need to help the formation of a strong ASEAN+ union, which can become a United States of East Asia in the future, otherwise the US bases in Okinawa and South Korea will continue to be there and whenever there is any issue between China and any other ASEAN or East Asian states (South Korea or Japan), like what we have today in SCS dispute with Vietnam and Philippines, the USA and/or India will take these opportunities to get involved, backed up by their local bases (in case of USA) and maritime blue water forces. If China helps the formation of a strong and united ASEAN+, like NATO, then ASEAN+ will remain allied with China.

China knows VN-Laos-Camb - members of ASEAN never lean toward US or China, we only allied with Soviet union, we don't like China-US, and we're strong enough to protect ourselves.So ASEAN solidarity never be US or China's ally.

ASEAN have its own way to go, we won't need alliance, we don't care if China or Us collapse, dude.

 

[kalu_miah]

China knows VN-Laos-Camb - members of ASEAN never lean toward US or China, we only allied with Soviet union, we don't like China-US, and we're strong enough to protect ourselves.So ASEAN solidarity never be US or China's ally.

ASEAN have its own way to go, we won't need alliance, we don't care if China or Us collapse, dude.

Of course ASEAN member states are the first priority for ASEAN and it can remain non-aligned, but please consider the situation of other 7 ASEAN states out of 10. Many of them are US as well as Chinese allies.

With US and China remaining the top two economic and military powers of the world, it is hard to avoid them. My recommendation is to use both and whichever helps ASEAN integrate and expand more, lean to that party so the other one also steps up with their helping activity, as mentioned in the above post. Russia is a faraway power with reduced global footprint, it is not comparable to USA or China any more, unless of course they succeed in their effort with Eurasian Union and expand it southward towards warm water ports:
http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/180767-geopolitics-eurasia-region.html

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

ASEAN needs both China and the US, and also India and Russia., for the interests of each country, and is also a game of balance forces.
But Russians are now only interested in the ASEAN's weapons market.
India has a growing relationship with ASEAN, along with her ​​development.

If you think China will help ASEAN to develop strong, it is also possible, but it's hard to see...
More intuitive, let us look at Myanmar. Before, China was almost a power presence in Myanmar. And what were results?
And here, let us look at the map below. China cares the interests of ASEAN countries or only for her interests, like this map?

If you think that ASEAN does not want the presence of both the US and China, which is good, but it is only theory, not reality.

Most ASEAN countries want to benefit from China rising, but they don't want to be dominant by China. Therefore, they also expect the strong presence of the US. It's a game of ASEAN...

 

[kalayaan]

I want to believe that ASEAN would be able to unite as a regional bloc, but at the moment, this is just a dream. The other SEA nations are more of letting Vietnam and the Philippines deal with the SCS disputes while they wait and watch the development like its a noontime drama.

The water region over there could be shared by the nations with real legal claims, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.

 

[Battle of Bach Dang River]

I want to believe that ASEAN would be able to unite as a regional bloc, but at the moment, this is just a dream. The other SEA nations are more of letting Vietnam and the Philippines deal with the SCS disputes while they wait and watch the development like its a noontime drama.

The water region over there could be shared by the nations with real legal claims, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.

Yes, it's foolish if Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei don't stand up for their rights, together against the expansionism of China. If China successfully bullying the Philippines and Vietnam, next will be their turn...

 

[NiceGuy]

Of course ASEAN member states are the first priority for ASEAN and it can remain non-aligned, but please consider the situation of other 7 ASEAN states out of 10. Many of them are US as well as Chinese allies.

There is No more China's allies in ASEAN, bro. and US also don't care about her allies in ASEAN, as you can see US almost do Nothing to help Phillipine against China. So, once day, ASEAN countries will have to unite to fight against any threat together.

With US and China remaining the top two economic and military powers of the world, it is hard to avoid them. My recommendation is to use both and whichever helps ASEAN integrate and expand more, lean to that party so the other one also steps up with their helping activity, as mentioned in the above post. Russia is a faraway power with reduced global footprint, it is not comparable to USA or China any more, unless of course they succeed in their effort with Eurasian Union and expand it southward towards warm water ports:

Oki, they're on the Top, but ASEAN soon will take over USA to fully control Malacca strait, and ASEAN is strong enough to protect what belong to ASEAN. so if US-China threaten ASEAN, then we will shut down Malacca strait to hurt them back.

That's the way to deal with threat, bro.

 

[faithfulguy]

There is No more China's allies in ASEAN, bro. and US also don't care about her allies in ASEAN, as you can see US almost do Nothing to help Phillipine against China. So, once day, ASEAN countries will have to unite to fight against any threat together.

Oki, they're on the Top, but ASEAN soon will take over USA to fully control Malacca strait, and ASEAN is strong enough to protect what belong to ASEAN. so if US-China threaten ASEAN, then we will shut down Malacca strait to hurt them back.

That's the way to deal with threat, bro.

You talk about the fall of US too much. A single US carrier task force is enough to keep peace in SE Asia. Including securing the Malacca strait. The earlier I see US not caring about Malacca strait is maybe 2080. We'll let our grand kids debate that issue. Right now, lets be realistic.

 

[NiceGuy]

You talk about the fall of US too much. A single US carrier task force is enough to keep peace in SE Asia. Including securing the Malacca strait. The earlier I see US not caring about Malacca strait is maybe 2080. We'll let our grand kids debate that issue. Right now, lets be realistic.

Hehe, maybe US's plan is staying in Malacca strait until 2080, just like US wanted to stay in South VietNam forever, but we will find out the way to send them back to their home sweet home much more earlier

On the potential application of the Type 636 attack submarines and Su-30 MK2V multirole fighters in the SCS, Yin replies that the Type 636 attack submarines can be a major threat in the SCS. Yin adds that Vietnam has designated a submarine ambush zone in the Straits of Malacca for its tactical training. Yin says that the Straits of Malacca is a shipping lifeline of many countries including China, the United States, Japan and South Korea. "By designating a submarine ambush zone over there, it is to destroy the means of livelihood for everybody because it [Straits of Malacca] is everybody's lifeline," says Yin.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/chines...nam-get-sub-fleet-6-years-state-media-11.html

With Russia support, our Sub-Marine base will soon complete, and then, it's the perfect time to deal with US-China in Malacca strait.

Don't forget our Russia boss is supper power nation too. and we also have Carrier-killer Shaddock missile with its warhead up to 1,000kg. one hit, one carrier killed

 

[kalu_miah]

List of articles on Asian Pivot policy of the US, Japan and ASEAN:

America's Pacific Century - By Hillary Clinton | Foreign Policy
Obama pivots policy toward Asia | Stanford Daily
Power Pivot or Duffer
The American Pivot to Asia - By Kenneth Lieberthal | Foreign Policy
http://www.risingpowersinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/policyalert_nov2011_pivot.pdf
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42448.pdf
US Asian pivot calls for Japanese strategic response | East Asia Forum
Pacific pivot: America
Japan’s choices in a multipolar world | East Asia Forum
ASEAN: a united front to tackle the South China Sea issue | East Asia Forum
The ASEAN Civil Society Conference: a
ASEAN centrality: a year of big power transitions | East Asia Forum

 

[ahfatzia]

@kalu-miah

Let me tell you a little secret, if it wasn't because of China around there is an ambitious nation would swallowed up some ASEAN country one by one. What do you think the actual purpose of 1979 war?

 

[xdrive]

The Original Post leaves out any mention of Australia.