First of all, you have made excellent points and I agree with almost all of them and Jazāk Allāhu Khayran for the detailed answer.
Taking the holistic view and not knowing the version evaluated by RMAF so assuming it is the most up to date Block-II
Agreed that RMAF would have evaluated the Block-ll version but I highly doubt that the discussion will be about Block-ll. It's most probable that RMAF will go for Block-3 as production is presently set up for it and nobody will go for the previous version when the latest and better one is available. We have the example of Barma regarding this.
Aircraft:
Avionics - nearly equal with the 2032 edging out on known modes
ECM - identical
Performance - nearly identical(on paper) with the JF-17 having a single digit edge on T/w and better rate of climb and ceiling.
Advantage - Thunder
Avionics - Disagree with the nearly equal, JF17 has a bigger, better radar system with more energy to power it and other goodies.
ECM - Disagree with ECM being identical as well, JF17 is better.
Performance - somewhat agree.
Thunder surpasses F/A-50 by quite a good margin.
LIFT capability - F/A-50 has the clear edge with the basic design focused on imitating other aircraft and parameters. LIFT was a key RMAF requirement, the JF-17B does only itself.
Advantage -Golden Eagle
Agree F/A-50 being the better LIFT aircraft but RMAF is going to acquire a total of 36 aircraft of this catogary and the number is too much for LIFT role.
RMAF has 8 F-18 and 18
Sukhoi Su-30, So according to these numbers, it seems they need an LCA with additional LIFT capability not the other way around and F/A-50 does not fit in that class. Just my guess.
Onboarding:
Logistics - The F/A-50 shares a common engine with a current RMAF frontline fighter (F/A-18) which means spares and knowledge is cross functional and aircraft techs will take lesser time to familiarize themselves.
The RMAF operated the Rd-33 but has not for the last few years so that knowledge will take time to regain along with spares.
advantage - Golden Eagle
Both aircraft have the common mil-bus but the F/A-50 can share weapons with the F/A-18 from day one with all codes authorized. The JF-17 will only be permitted the Sidewinder with all other weapons requiring OEM authorization which will never come because of the JF-17s origin. Although the Russians might relent because of the engine sales.
Advantage - Golden Eagle
At a glance it's true but if you look closer you will see that the number of F-18 is too low to matter. The number of AIM-9X and AIM-120C7 is way too low to matter as well.
Agreed that RMAF will take a bit of time to relearn the maintenance knowledge but Pakistan has already done the grueling work of how to maintain JF-17/Rd93, which is arguably better than RMAF's knowledge as Pakistan has been extensively using JF-17 and teams from PAC will be there to improve upon their knowledge and dramatically reduce the relearn period. So, in essence, it's a minor thing.
Spare parts for F/A-50/GE404 will be quite expensive than JF-17/Rd93 and JF Package might be cheaper than F/A-50 plus RMAF might already have leftover spares in their inventory, So I guess this evens out.
RMAF will most probably get PL15 which is far better than AIM-120C7, even if they only get SD-10 it's equivalent. RMAF will also get PL10 as well which is good as well. Additionally, Russia might give permission to integrate their armament which can be used as well.
Arguably the JF has the advantage here.
Spares support - Malaysians have a good relationship and generally no territorial issues with any of the suppliers on the F/A-50 side. The Chinese do not have issues with the supply but there are territorial concerns that could potentially come up at some point.
Advantage - even(ish)
RMAF has a good relationship with Russia so they can acquire them directly from them as well. Chinese are looking to increase their footprint in the world alliances, so I think they are more motivated to improve their relationship with Malaysia and they will have assurance from Pakistan as well.
Diplomatic net result
If the F/A-50 is selected the Chinese will feel irked - they may not get palm oil and other smaller diplomatic nitpicks - but they need all the allies they can get so it wont be a complete abandonment. Pakistan really has no allies pool other than the usual disappointed “ummah” category.
if the JF-17 is selected - the stakeholders will possibly go as far as sanctions,severe diplomatic pressure and try to destabilize the current Malaysian government.
Advantage F/A-50
Ummah is for Muʾmins.
Pakistan has been kept afloat for quite many years by the help of ___________ + sellout money from the US, I think you guessed it
.
The last point is arguable but if that option is used china and Russia will probably jump in to take their place.
In my opinion, JF-17 is far ahead in the race but other things matter as well, So let's see what the future brings in.
Jazāk Allāhu Khayran Bro
