The record-breaking heatwave in India and Pakistan is gripping other parts of South and Central Asia as well.
Will the heatwave in India break in time for Eid?
An unprecedented heatwave in South Asia this month has brought dangerously high temperatures to over a billion people this week. India and Pakistan have been hit the hardest. Temperatures topped 113 degrees F (45 degrees C), but the World Meteorological Organization said today (April 29, 2022) that temps in parts of India may ease by May 2, which corresponds to the date of
Eid, a major Muslim holiday. Meanwhile, experts suggest that the heat in parts of Pakistan and northwestern India will likely continue through next week.
The heatwave began in late March for northern India and Pakistan and spread into the first weeks of April. Although heatwaves are not uncommon in this region during the pre-monsoon season from April to June, residents and meteorologists have noted that this heatwave was the earliest they could remember.
Some observers are suggesting this heatwave pattern might become one of the longest-lasting in recent decades. Some are calling this year
the year without a spring.
The
#heatwave in
#India and
#Pakistan is hitting many millions of people and the economy. Temps topped 45°C (113°F), will ease by 2 May
#Heatwaves are one of the signs of
#climatechange
Air temps at 1200 UTC from
@CopernicusECMWF
WMO roundup at
https://t.co/au1UovUieL pic.twitter.com/wGuZXIU2yS
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO)
April 29, 2022
More heat for coming weeks
The average temperature in India in March 2022 was about 92 degrees F (33 degrees C), the warmest March ever recorded since records began in 1902.
Forecast models vary for different parts of the Indian subcontinent. Some models indicate that parts of Pakistan and northwestern India could reach temperatures near 120 degrees F (50 degrees C) over the weekend and through next week. Major cities such as
Delhi and
Lahore are forecast to reach 113 degrees F (45 degrees C). These temperatures are 18 degrees F (10 degrees C) warmer than the normal high temperatures for April, and would approach the all-time record temperatures for the month. Temperatures in major metropolitan areas can be further exacerbated by the
urban heat island effect, increasing local temperatures a few degrees higher than the surrounding countryside.
Due to these forecasts, officials issued heat wave warnings for 10 major cities in India. Last week, some regional educational systems shut down all schools for five days. Heat wave conditions should last at least eight more days before abating.
Dust-Thunderstorm/Rain Predicted during Eid Holidays
(Heat Wave Conditions likely to Subside during the Period)
westerly wave is likely to enter western part of the country from 01st May and likely to persist till 05th May (Thursday).
#HeatWaves #ThunderStrom#DustStrom pic.twitter.com/Ql1XoBrGgl
— Pak Met Department ????? ??????? (@pmdgov)
April 29, 2022
And there’s a rainfall deficit
In addition to the heat, the region has also recorded a significant rainfall deficit in the pre-
monsoon season since early March. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, many Indian regions are experiencing a 99% deficit in normal rainfall amounts.
There are growing concerns about the potential for regional food shortages if the lack of rainfall continues.
Unusually high temperatures also spread north and east through Asia. Temperatures reached over 95 degrees F (35 C) in both China and Taiwan. South Korea measured temperatures around 86 degrees F (30 C) earlier this month, coming close to nationwide records for the month of April.
Technically, the heat hasn’t been one continuous heatwave since the beginning of March. Still, this spring will likely be one of the warmest two-month periods on record for South Asia.
Heatwaves develop under high pressure systems that can form south of the jet stream. In Eastern Asia, a stubborn “ridge” in the jet stream has remained persistent since early March, allowing the high pressure system over the region to become unusually strong. This traps the atmosphere in a heat dome that can last for days or even weeks. Relief usually comes in the form of rainfall or a cold front.
Experts don’t expect the monsoon season to begin until June or July for much of the region. So it’s possible the heat in South Asia will continue into the summer months.
A heatwave is a silent killer
Heatwaves are a “hidden” type of severe weather, according to the World Health Organization. They are often overlooked as a dangerous type of weather that can kill. Whether through strained power grids or reductions in water availability, heatwaves hey can quietly kill thousands of people living in vulnerable situations.
In 2015, a similar heatwave (hot enough to
melt roads) killed over 500 people in New Delhi alone. The elderly or sick are the most likely to be impacted, but everyone outdoors or without air conditioning are at risk from extreme temperatures.
Bottom line: An unprecedented heatwave in India and Pakistan in April 2022 has brought dangerously high temperatures to over a billion people. Some experts predict May 2 – corresponding with the date of Eid – for when the heat will end.
-------
Pakistan: Heatwave alert issued as temperatures top 48°C in April
The extreme heat threatens crops and flooding from melting glaciers, Met Office warns
People cool off at a swimming pool during a hot summer day in Lahore on April 28, 2022.Image Credit: AFP
Islamabad: With temperatures in Pakistan soaring at 48°C in some parts of rural Sindh, Pakistan’s climate change ministry issued a heatwave alert in all provinces and advised people and authorities to take precautionary measures.
Pakistan Met Office said that most parts of Pakistan would experience “above normal” temperatures and remain in the grip of heatwave conditions during the current week till May 2.
The extreme heat has threatened crops, increased fire risks and flooding from melting glaciers, Pakistan Met Office said. Pakistanis are also experiencing long power outages in sweltering heat and during the month of Ramadan, making fasting even more challenging. “This is the first time we are seeing this scorching weather in April in Islamabad. Usually, we experience this weather in June,” said 32-year-old schoolteacher Saba Usman.
“The unannounced and long load-shedding hours in Ramadan have made things even worse,” she complained. Islamabad city recorded a maximum of 39C on April 28.
Temperatures are surging to dangerously high levels across the country. The city of Dadu in Sindh hit 48°C (118 degrees Fahrenheit) — reported to be the hottest in the region this year in April so far. Maximum temperatures on April 28 were recorded in these cities: Dadu (48°C), Dera Ghazi Khan (Punjab) and Sibbi (Balochistan) 47°C, Mohenjo Daro 46°C, Multan, Sukkur and Sargodha 45°C. There’s no escape in sight from ruthless heat as the mercury is forecasted to hit 50°C in Jacobabad city of Sindh.
“A heatwave in the month of March and April is unprecedented and alarming,” said climate change minister Sherry Rehman. “South Asia, particularly India and Pakistan are faced with what has been a record-breaking heatwave” during Ramadan,” she said, adding that unusually hot weather and insufficient rainfall “is harmful to agriculture output and public health.” March 2022 was ranked the ninth driest month since 1961 as the national rainfall remained 62 per cent below normal, according to Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
Heatwave worries farmers
Record-breaking temperatures and little rain so far this year left the farmers worried in the country known for its agrarian economy. Pakistani farmers face the dual threat of enduring severe hot conditions on the job and heatwaves affecting the quality of crops. “The early summer in the form of heatwave has negatively impacted the wheat crop, particularly in South Punjab, as it led to wheat crop ripening early” which affects the average yield, Pakpattan-based farmer Aamer Hayat Bhandara told Gulf News.
Aamer fears that the unusual change in climate may decline wheat production by six to nine per cent and can also impact livestock production.
Pakistan mainly produces wheat, rice, cotton, maize and sugarcane - which are affected by climate change. “This heatwave is not only impacting the wheat crop but it may lead to lower productivity in corn as well as upcoming rice crops. This will not just affect the lives of farmers but can lead to food insecurity and put the economy under stress” he cautioned. Adaptation to climate-smart strategies is essential for Pakistan to achieve food security while reducing the impacts of climate change, suggests Aamer, who is leading ‘Digital Dera’ - the first of its kind digital agriculture community network in Pakistan.
The human-caused global climate change is becoming more evident with frequent heatwaves, droughts, and changes in rainfall patterns. It is also impacting agriculture and affecting crop yields around the world. “Climate change may affect the production of maize and wheat as early as 2030,” according to the latest Nasa study.
