Exclusive: U.S. moves to cut Huawei off from global chip suppliers

[antonius123]

Nope, bulk of China’s exports arent based on these 3rd world countries. Whether they stick to them or leave has very little effect

- u don’t wana lose ur biggest customer that’s spending $100 in ur store vs 5-6 little customer who may barely spend $20-$30 altogether.

US’ companies also don’t rely on these countries if the assumption that if they stick to China it means they reject US companies.

World economy currently sits at $80 trillion of which US, EU and Japan comprise around $45 trillion.
These 3 nations hold more than half the world gdp. Severing ties will definitely have severe effects on China

Likewise with US, Europe, and Japan. Bulk of their export was to China. Eventhough China export more to than import from them, isolation will hit hard all.

This is data of 2019: china export more to US than import from US. But I believe 2020 figure will be more balance due to high tariff that US impose on many goods imported from China.

 

[Han Patriot]

Trump only needs to sign an executive order. Here is the text I formulate for him (just copy and paste):

“herewith I - Donald Trump, the President of the United States, order the use of USD in China is forbidden with immediate effect. Every transaction in USD is forbidden in mainland China, HK and Macau.

Every entity, be either chinese or foreign, that acts against this president executive order will be subject of sanctions.”

Keep wagging your tail puppy. Hahah, 90k Amerucans are dead now. If he wants the US to implode, go ahead.

The question is this, the easiest way to decouple is just default and ban all US exports and imports from China. Trump is not doing that despite 1.5mil infected and 90k killed. Y? The best he can do know is just keep on banging Huawei. Come on we basically killed 90k Americans by US logic and the best revenge is just banning chip sales to Huawei? We blew the US economy back to depression era and destroyed all the wealth created since 2008. 30mil Americans are jobless, food supply chain destroyed. The best he can do is bang Huawei? Seriously? I would friggin default, ban China trade and attack China. All the tough talk.... Lolol


Huawei is already prepared to get banned for life man. The largest telecom market in the world is in CHINA not USA. Get it?

 

[SEAISI]

Failed OP, just like this one
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...-just-crashed-how-many-are-left/#7ac1761154c3

 

[tower9]

Why would China's economy get destroyed? At most we can't sell higher end phones, ya think basestation uses 5nm chips? That's the difference between a real superpower and smaller countries, you seriously think our economy is only about selling goods to Americans? We consume produce and innovate, if you take away the US paper printing casino economy, China is the largest economy in real terms. Life is not just about appeasing US like other puny states, its about independence.

Semiconductors are the backbone of modern computing. China has very weak fundamentals here. This is a choke point. Nearly all advanced semiconductor technology are held by the US or US allies. If they are withheld from China it would significantly slow China's technological advancement.

 

[Han Patriot]

Semiconductors are the backbone of modern computing. China has very weak fundamentals here. This is a choke point. Nearly all advanced semiconductor technology are held by the US or US allies. If they are withheld from China it would significantly slow China's technological advancement.

I get that we are stuck at 14nm, but then we had been behind for decades, are we imploding? Military applications don't really need cutting edge chips, cell phones do. Not even supercomputers use the latest chips.

It might slow Chinese industrial output but not technological development. How can you slowdown something we don't have. If Huawei can't sell phones with 5nm chips, at most they will sell at middle level market. The opposite will happen, full embargo will force Chinese companies to use Chinese equipment. Smic use to buy coaters from JEOL Japan and only smaller labs would buy from King Eemi. Now all are made by King Semi, the same for etchers testers and materials. If I am a Chinese company I would prefer to buy proven foreign products even if it meant paying more, I could reduce my work and time, I don't need to requalify them to my standards. Now you have Smic engineers qualifying Chinese equipment, fineyuning them to reach international levels. You have not seen that before. China had always been an open economy, foreigj companies were free to sell, now they are forbiddened to sell from US.... I

 

[tower9]

I get that we are stuck at 14nm, but then we had been behind for decades, are we imploding? Military applications don't really need cutting edge chips, cell phones do. Not even supercomputers use the latest chips.

The problem is that "good enough" is not good enough when you are getting isolated from cutting edge technology. China cannot afford to perpetually be two or even one step behind because the more it is isolated, the more it will probably fall behind.

 

[Han Patriot]

The problem is that "good enough" is not good enough when you are getting isolated from cutting edge technology. China cannot afford to perpetually be two or even one step behind because the more it is isolated, the more it will probably fall behind.

We had been perpetually behind bro. Did it stop us from creating other tech? Even if we managed to catch up to a generation behind, the most we lose if jus money, but remember we have the largest market to support continuous R&D. Do some research on Chinese Euv and DUV, there is a proposal to use DUV to reach 7nm by a Chinese manufacturer. Will Smic give them a chance? I am sure they have no choice.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

I think a point lost in all the panic posting is that physics is on China's side. A silicon atom has a diameter of 0.2nm. Instead of thinking of feature sizes in terms of nm, lets think of them in terms of silicon atoms. 14nm would be 70 Si atoms, 7nm would be 35 Si atoms, 3nm would be 15 Si atoms, etc. I admit that I'm not a technical expert in the field, but it seems obvious to me that if you want to build a transistor out of silicon, you need at least one silicon atom!

If we take Moore's law of halving the number of atoms every two years, from the current production of 35 Si atoms we have a little more than a decade to reach the ultimate physical limit. This will signal the ultimate development of the silicon semiconductor and no one will be able to surpass that limit.

This is not unusual in technology, we have had radios for more than a century yet no one has surpassed the fundamental limit of the speed of light in transmitting radio waves! Of course radios today are far more sophisticated than they were 100 years ago, but in our analogy that would be increased sophistication in chip design, not smaller feature sizes.

We had been perpetually behind bro. Did it stop us from creating other tech? Even if we managed to catch up to a generation behind, the most we lose if jus money, but remember we have the largest market to support continuous R&D. Do some research on Chinese Euv and DUV, there is a proposal to use DUV to reach 7nm by a Chinese manufacturer. Will Smic give them a chance? I am sure they have no choice.

China is not even perpetually behind in semiconductors as a whole. China's etching machines have reached the cutting edge and are used by TSMC.

The problem is that "good enough" is not good enough when you are getting isolated from cutting edge technology. China cannot afford to perpetually be two or even one step behind because the more it is isolated, the more it will probably fall behind.

That's just historically untrue. China has been perpetually behind, often far more than a step or two behind, since 1949. The gap has shrunk precipitously, not widened.

 

[Han Patriot]

I think a point lost in all the panic posting is that physics is on China's side. A silicon atom has a diameter of 0.2nm. Instead of thinking of feature sizes in terms of nm, lets think of them in terms of silicon atoms. 14nm would be 70 Si atoms, 7nm would be 35 Si atoms, 3nm would be 15 Si atoms, etc. I admit that I'm not a technical expert in the field, but it seems obvious to me that if you want to build a transistor out of silicon, you need at least one silicon atom!

If we take Moore's law of halving the number of atoms every two years, from the current production of 35 Si atoms we have a little more than a decade to reach the ultimate physical limit. This will signal the ultimate development of the silicon semiconductor and no one will be able to surpass that limit.

This is not unusual in technology, we have had radios for more than a century yet no one has surpassed the fundamental limit of the speed of light in transmitting radio waves! Of course radios today are far more sophisticated than they were 100 years ago, but in our analogy that would be increased sophistication in chip design, not smaller feature sizes.

China is not even perpetually behind in semiconductors as a whole. China's etching machines have reached the cutting edge and are used by TSMC.

That's just historically untrue. China has been perpetually behind, often far more than a step or two behind, since 1949. The gap has shrunk precipitously, not widened.

I agree on your analysis, we will reach a limit unless we go quantum which is where China has some strong fundamentals. The nanometer race is about commercial dominance, frankly speaking 5nm dies not make sense for other applications except fast moving goods like cellphones.

I would say after US, we have the most complete semiconductor chain.

1) we have process tech 14nm, we make our own gases n raw materials and we make 22nm equipment.

2) Taiwan has 5nm nearly non existant material and equipment industry. Same for Korea, that's why they bought Chinese gases and material during Jap embargo.

3) Japan has material and equipment tech but gave up on process tech after Korean and Taiwanese assault.

 

[tower9]

I think a point lost in all the panic posting is that physics is on China's side. A silicon atom has a diameter of 0.2nm. Instead of thinking of feature sizes in terms of nm, lets think of them in terms of silicon atoms. 14nm would be 70 Si atoms, 7nm would be 35 Si atoms, 3nm would be 15 Si atoms, etc. I admit that I'm not a technical expert in the field, but it seems obvious to me that if you want to build a transistor out of silicon, you need at least one silicon atom!

If we take Moore's law of halving the number of atoms every two years, from the current production of 35 Si atoms we have a little more than a decade to reach the ultimate physical limit. This will signal the ultimate development of the silicon semiconductor and no one will be able to surpass that limit.

This is not unusual in technology, we have had radios for more than a century yet no one has surpassed the fundamental limit of the speed of light in transmitting radio waves! Of course radios today are far more sophisticated than they were 100 years ago, but in our analogy that would be increased sophistication in chip design, not smaller feature sizes.

China is not even perpetually behind in semiconductors as a whole. China's etching machines have reached the cutting edge and are used by TSMC.

That's just historically untrue. China has been perpetually behind, often far more than a step or two behind, since 1949. The gap has shrunk precipitously, not widened.

True, China made significant technological achievements during its period of relative isolation (1960 to 1980). However when China opened up, it was a dirt poor, backward country. It has been able to advance rapidly because it had access to Western technology, know how and capital from 1980 to now. If this was shut off, China will struggle to continue advancing at the same pace. Yes, it will still manage to come up with achievements but its progress will be dramatically slowed. China will be unrecognizable from the China of 2019.

So what I am saying is that it is absolutely within China's interest to do several things:

1. Delay confrontation with the West, in this area Xi Jinping has severely miscalculated. His flaunting of Deng Xiaoping's advice of keeping a low profile has raised alarm bells in Washington, who was already predisposed to be suspicious of China. Xi has a poor understanding of foreign cultures and how they perceive China, combined with his tendency to want to assert power and dominance, an early clash was inevitable.

2. Go into war footing to develop technological independence. China has begun to do this beginning last year. Which is a very reactive move. China should've really started to do this since 2014 when Obama was in office.

3. China needs to become the world's leading innovator. This is the only way to make itself indispensable. Although the US will continue to want to choke off China's progress, other countries will want to get access to Chinese technology and even US allies will be predisposed to shrug off American pressure.

As for the US, the earlier there is war with China, and I mean, a shooting war which will lay waste to China's industrial coastal provinces, the better. The sooner China's development comes to a chaotic crash, the better. So a military confrontation will be provoked very soon, read next 1-2 years, and the virus was part of the plan.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

True, China made significant technological achievements during its period of relative isolation (1960 to 1980). However when China opened up, it was a dirt poor, backward country. It has been able to advance rapidly because it had access to Western technology, know how and capital from 1980 to now. If this was shut off, China will struggle to continue advancing at the same pace. Yes, it will still manage to come up with achievements but its progress will be dramatically slowed. China will be unrecognizable from the China of 2019.

So what I am saying is that it is absolutely within China's interest to do several things:

1. Delay confrontation with the West, in this area Xi Jinping has severely miscalculated. His flaunting of Deng Xiaoping's advice of keeping a low profile has raised alarm bells in Washington, who was already predisposed to be suspicious of China. Xi has a poor understanding of foreign cultures and how they perceive China, combined with his tendency to want to assert power and dominance, an early clash was inevitable.

2. Go into war footing to develop technological independence. China has begun to do this beginning last year. Which is a very reactive move. China should've really started to do this since 2014 when Obama was in office.

3. China needs to become the world's leading innovator. This is the only way to make itself indispensable. Although the US will continue to want to choke off China's progress, other countries will want to get access to Chinese technology and even US allies will be predisposed to shrug off American pressure.

As for the US, the earlier there is war with China, and I mean, a shooting war which will lay waste to China's industrial coastal provinces, the better. The sooner China's development comes to a chaotic crash, the better. So a military confrontation will be provoked very soon, read next 1-2 years, and the virus was part of the plan.

This is what I find so frustrating about you. I can't dismiss you as a troll because you clearly have some good ideas, but on some topics you're just way out there. Points 2 and 3 I 100% agree with - with a caveat that the Chinese business community wasn't interested in decoupling in 2014 and there's only so much the government can do - but I don't get what "flouting" of Deng's dictum Xi did. Was it MiC 2025? Hu Jintao - which I'm sure you'll agree is as milquetoast as they come - had "indigenous innovation", Xi just took an old plan and put a new name on it. Technological self-reliance was always the plan; I'd go so far as to say that it was the whole point of trading with the West.

The reason the US didn't move against China sooner was because of 9/11 and the subsequent debacle War on Terror. That bought China a good decade where it could develop in peace, it wasn't Hu Jintao's diplomacy. Similarly, "hide and bide" was 99% Western arrogance and 1% Chinese cunning. Whatever China said in that period in the 1980s wouldn't have mattered - it could have shouted from the rooftops that it was out to dominate the world and everyone who even bothered to listen would have just laughed. The reason the US is hostile to China now is because China is much more powerful than it used to be. That's it. It has nothing to do with Xi Jinping.

I also think you vastly overestimate US allies' commitment to it. The reason for the increasingly shrill US attacks on Huawei is that it failed so utterly to strong-arm its allies into abandoning it. To be honest, it shocked even me that only Australia and Japan signed up for outright bans; I had no idea Huawei's technology was that advanced and desirable. I've occasionally heard reports that Asian diplomats tell their American counterparts, "Don't force us to choose because you won't like the choice we make."

There is no isolating China. China is far too big, far too attractive a market, and far too willing to play by global norms, and most importantly far too integrated for anyone to abandon. The only thing its not willing to accept is US domination. And the West has always kept its most advanced technology far away from China, yet China has advanced at this stupendous rate nonetheless.

BTW, don't buy into the stupid conspiracy theories that the US released this virus. It has nowhere near the technology necessary to engineer a virus like this.

 

[tower9]

This is what I find so frustrating about you. I can't dismiss you as a troll because you clearly have some good ideas, but on some topics you're just way out there. Points 2 and 3 I 100% agree with - with a caveat that the Chinese business community wasn't interested in decoupling in 2014 and there's only so much the government can do - but I don't get what "flouting" of Deng's dictum Xi did. Was it MiC 2025? Hu Jintao - which I'm sure you'll agree is as milquetoast as they come - had "indigenous innovation", Xi just took an old plan and put a new name on it. Technological self-reliance was always the plan; I'd go so far as to say that it was the whole point of trading with the West.

The reason the US didn't move against China sooner was because of 9/11 and the subsequent debacle War on Terror. That bought China a good decade where it could develop in peace, it wasn't Hu Jintao's diplomacy. Similarly, "hide and bide" was 99% Western arrogance and 1% Chinese cunning. Whatever China said in that period in the 1980s wouldn't have mattered - it could have shouted from the rooftops that it was out to dominate the world and everyone who even bothered to listen would have just laughed. The reason the US is hostile to China now is because China is much more powerful than it used to be. That's it. It has nothing to do with Xi Jinping.

I also think you vastly overestimate US allies' commitment to it. The reason for the increasingly shrill US attacks on Huawei is that it failed so utterly to strong-arm its allies into abandoning it. To be honest, it shocked even me that only Australia and Japan signed up for outright bans; I had no idea Huawei's technology was that advanced and desirable. I've occasionally heard reports that Asian diplomats tell their American counterparts, "Don't force us to choose because you won't like the choice we make."

There is no isolating China. China is far too big, far too attractive a market, and far too willing to play by global norms, and most importantly far too integrated for anyone to abandon. The only thing its not willing to accept is US domination. And the West has always kept its most advanced technology far away from China, yet China has advanced at this stupendous rate nonetheless.

BTW, don't buy into the stupid conspiracy theories that the US released this virus. It has nowhere near the technology necessary to engineer a virus like this.

Why do you think I would be a troll just because I have a different opinion from you? Is everyone supposed to be an intellectual clone to you in order to be deemed an honest source?

Yes, I do agree that the US was distracted with wars in the Middle East for nearly two decades, China was also much weaker so the fear wasn't there. However, as you know, Xi has been far more assertive and controlling than his predecessors. He has a penchant for displays of power. He could've probably pushed technological interdependence and expanding links to the developing world without making massive global announcements such as China 2025 and the Belt and Road which made it clear he was determined to change the global order. Prior to the last 2-3 years as well, China has acted very arrogantly towards its smaller neighbors thus sowing even more distrust. Not to mention the Uighur re-education camps. While I agree that the issue has been exaggerated by the Western press, there was far more freedom for Uighurs before Xi. Many Uighur professors and intellectuals have been persecuted under him. So overall, Xi has been a very harsh ruler and this sets off further alarm bells.

I do agree that conflict was going to come sooner or later, but Xi has done his part in accelerating it. However, much of it had to do with his complete miscalculation of Western, namely American perceptions. For example, Trump absolutely took him by surprise. He was not ready for a maverick like Trump.

Lastly, yes the Chinese market is very attractive and vast. But that only pertains to peacetime circumstances. This is why it is imperative for the US to ratchet up tensions and even provoke a Cold War or even a shooting war.

Also don't be naive. Creating a virus like Covid-19 is very easy, especially considering the vast resources that the CIA has. They could easily have planted this in China. In fact, I am sure they were responsible for all of the mysterious viruses that decimated China's pig and fowl populations during the trade war as well.

 

[Yankee-stani]

Again there will be conflict down the road between China and the US but it will be akin to proxy conflicts first in South Asia India will be the US partner while Pakistan will be the Chinese partner, more instable Asian countries will suffer from these proxy conflicts between China and the US,Trump is basically trying his best to decouple any economic link with PRC and in both Democratic and Republican circles the new crop of politicians are much more binary on China than before so China is gonna be casted aside as a major rival no more affairs of the last 40 years

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Why do you think I would be a troll just because I have a different opinion from you? Is everyone supposed to be an intellectual clone to you in order to be deemed an honest source?

Fair enough, point taken.

While I agree that the issue has been exaggerated by the Western press, there was far more freedom for Uighurs before Xi.

There was also far more terrorism and rioting in Xinjiang before Xi. I'm sure you've seen the videos, I don't want to post them as they're quite violent and gruesome. Xi did what needed to be done, and if that ruffled some feathers in the West then tough luck for them. Bush was also preparing to escalate things with China (the Hainan Incident) before 9/11 blindsided him. Is Xi to blame for that too?

He was not ready for a maverick like Trump.

Who was? It's a simple point I'm making: instead of Monday morning quarterbacking Xi's decisions and comparing him against the ideal leader in your imagination, compare him to his contemporaries. Try to honestly imagine what you would have done in his place without the benefit of hindsight and under the pressures of the time.

 

[gambit]

We had been perpetually behind bro. Did it stop us from creating other tech? Even if we managed to catch up to a generation behind, the most we lose if jus money,...

Wrong...You WILL lose far more than money. This is why it is so entertaining reading you fools.

There is nothing wrong with being technologically behind. The issue is whether you have CONTINUAL access to developing technologies to maintain your status quo. In isolation, you either have no or little access to those developing technologies. Indigenous development to catch up? Dream on. Commodity semicon products takes 2-3 months from wafer start to client.

https://www.zeiss.com/semiconductor...nership/zeiss-systems-in-a-wafer-stepper.html

Wafer steppers and wafer scanners are among the most important production machines for chip manufacture. The functional principle is comparable to that of an oversized slide projector: in the wafer stepper, the structures of the later semiconductor components are transferred from a mask (reticle) to the wafer, which is coated with photoresist. This step, known as lithography, is a particularly important production process in the manufacture of semiconductor components.

You just developed a new stepper? Try at least 2 YEARS of engineering wafer runs before a single client is willing to accept engineering samples just to test wafers that came from your new stepper. That client will take one year of testing under his own criteria before publishing his findings. Now three years have passed and in that time, you cannot develop further that new stepper you just built. You have to lock in that technology to remove all the engineering variables that comes with continuous development. In that three yrs time, the client will compare wafers that came from your indigenously developed stepper against GLOBAL standards and if there are greater than %3 difference in all criteria, your stepper WILL be rejected. If one client reject, most likely others will without doing their own evals. In short, you have to wait 2-3 yrs to find out if your new hardware have any shortcomings under COMMODITY products, let alone using the new hardware on new 'cutting edge' products.

Right now, under autonomous autos requirements, 20 nm NAND commodity dies are being rejected left and right from all manufacturers and we are talking about major players like Samsung, Micron, Toshiba and so on. TWENTY NM...!!! How old is that NAND technology? Try at least 10 yrs old. In other words, autonomous driving requirements are rejecting %50 of wafers from established technologies as inadequate. That is NASA, ESA, and CNSA level.

Your China is slowly being severed from these global standards. The tool of that severance is not a scalpel but a dull spoon and that is why Huawei is terrified.