EU Iran sanctions: Nations poised to ban Iran oil imports

[nirreich]

Whether we build the bomb or not,scaring the sh*t out of Israeli regime right wing nuts is a good prize.
having the nightmare of something bad every night is worse than that thing.

I think you are confused. Iran hardly scares Israel, it is not Lebanon or Bahrain that Iran can intimidate.

 

[fd24]

I think you are confused. Iran hardly scares Israel, it is not Lebanon or Bahrain that Iran can intimidate.

Then why the hell are you knocking on daddys door all the time to deal with Iran? Why do you talk constant crap? If Iran cant intimidate Israel then why is your government hell bent on destroying Iran? Why are you sending mossad to kill the scientists? Its because you are scared shitless - you know it, i know it and we all know it

 

[TrMhMt]

I hope Turkiye will not be part of this comedy...

 

[IranZamin]

guys, ignore this zionist. lets focus on the counter measures

 

[Takaavar]

European Union foreign ministers are expected to announce a ban on the purchase of oil from Iran at a meeting in Brussels.

What idiots.... If you don't buy, so someone else (Asian countries) will do

But hey, do you know whats the result? Oil price would rise (which is what we want), but your economy will be (more) ****ed. Greece for example, currently, only relies on Iranian oil and even Azerbaijan refused to sell her

 

[Unbeliever]

I am not sure this is a smart move by the EU. I mean I understand the motivation behind it but China and India need enormous quantities of oil.. With less demand, have we not just lowered the price for them?

I know 80% of government revenue in Iran comes from oil exports, so this and the isolation of their central bank will probably hurt them somewhat. I just don't see sanctions like this being terribly effective without China and India on board...

Is it possible India may actually come on board? (honest question I don't know).

China and Russia probably won't right?

Now I suppose apart from escalating tensions this will have two effects:

1. Bolster support for the regime in Iran, despite its barbaric actions in the past, because a common outside enemy has that effect.. always.
2. make gas/oil products more expensive in the EU (or at least give the corporations a justification to make it more expensive..)
3. slow the Iranian nuclear program down by margin X (I don't think it is going to be a huge percentage though)...

Tell me what you think.

 

[RayKalm]

Come down Superkaif. Don't attack one side unnecessarily based on their nationality.

 

[Safriz]

iran wont lose much...they will have their oil in the wells for sale at a later date.....
it will be EU..who will suffer by an.increase in oil prices..only to arse wipe USA/Israel.

 

[nirreich]

I am not sure this is a smart move by the EU. I mean I understand the motivation behind it but China and India need enormous quantities of oil.. With less demand, have we not just lowered the price for them?

I know 80% of government revenue in Iran comes from oil exports, so this and the isolation of their central bank will probably hurt them somewhat. I just don't see sanctions like this being terribly effective without China and India on board...

Is it possible India may actually come on board? (honest question I don't know).

China and Russia probably won't right?

Now I suppose apart from escalating tensions this will have two effects:

1. Bolster support for the regime in Iran, despite its barbaric actions in the past, because a common outside enemy has that effect.. always.
2. make gas/oil products more expensive in the EU (or at least give the corporations a justification to make it more expensive..)
3. slow the Iranian nuclear program down by margin X (I don't think it is going to be a huge percentage though)...

Tell me what you think.

The EU countries are not dependent on Iranian oil, as some participants tried to argue. Europe will easily find other resources.

On the other hand, Iran is going to be badly hurt as around 25% of its oil export is to the EU. Even if China accepts buying that surplus (which I doubt as China already secure other oil resources in the UAE and KSA), it will offer much lower prices and exploit the Iranian distress. The Iranian currency already lost 50% of its value in the past year and with 20% unemployment (unofficial figure based on estimates, the official figure is 10%) the Iranian economy is in bad troubles.

As for India, it is not officially part of the embargo, but already cancelled several projects with Iran and could easily be persuaded to continue in this course.

The only fly in the ointment is that the EU embargo will only starts in July, and that is a long time for Iran's nuclear programme.

 

[SOHEIL]

self deleted

 

[Arian]

I am not sure this is a smart move by the EU. I mean I understand the motivation behind it but China and India need enormous quantities of oil.. With less demand, have we not just lowered the price for them?

Indeed. the EU and the USA are pushing hard for lower prices for China and India. This leaves Iran with no option but to sell its oil with lower prices to China.

From businessweek:

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- China has hired at least two supertankers to ship oil from Iran as the U.S. and allies try to cut the Islamic Republic’s oil income to pressure it over its nuclear program.

The two supertankers were booked to carry about 2 million barrels of crude from Kharg Island to China, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. Two other ships that called at an Iranian oil terminal are heading for China, according to AISLive Ltd. ship- tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

China isn't going to give up Iranian oil. They will continue buying Iranian oil and they will definitely increase their import of Iranian oil as well. That would be to the benefit of China and a great loss for the EU.

I know 80% of government revenue in Iran comes from oil exports, so this and the isolation of their central bank will probably hurt them somewhat. I just don't see sanctions like this being terribly effective without China and India on board...

the Iranian government revenue is calculated in Iranian Rial (IRR) at the end of every Iranian fiscal year. (Iranian fiscal year ends on March 21st). Oil incomes are less than one fourth of the Iranian GDP, but it is about 60% of Iran's exports I think. the EU share of Iran's oil exports is 18% and as far as I know Iran's oil revenue in 2011 was around 105 US Billion dollars according to the IMF, so that would be like 19 Billion US dollars loss for the Iranian economy and that number surely won't cripple Iran's economy with a nominal GDP of $420.894 billion, but that would make so many problems for the Iranian people. It'll also have inevitable consequences for EU countries like an increase in gasoline prices. European countries like Greece, Italy and Spain will face more troubles than Iran when this decision comes to effect in July I think, so the European Union has to support them financially.

Is it possible India may actually come on board? (honest question I don't know).

Yes, it is.

China and Russia probably won't right?

Russia itself is the world's largest oil producer, they don't import oil from Iran. Russia has enormous oil and gas reserves in Siberia and other federations of Russia, but China is already increasing its share of Iran's oil as I showed you in the news.

Now I suppose apart from escalating tensions this will have two effects:

1. Bolster support for the regime in Iran, despite its barbaric actions in the past, because a common outside enemy has that effect.. always.
2. make gas/oil products more expensive in the EU (or at least give the corporations a justification to make it more expensive..)
3. slow the Iranian nuclear program down by margin X (I don't think it is going to be a huge percentage though)...

Tell me what you think.

1. I doubt. People are really disappointed at how the regime is handling the economy. I'm personally very disappointed, although I will blame the USA for that, not Ahmadinejad. I was about to go to Georgia 2 weeks later for spending some time in there, with Iranian Rial devaluing like ***, the cost of travel for me has already doubled in less than a month. You can see how much I feel disappointed because if the Iranian rial keeps getting devalued, I'll have to pay much more for travel. So, I doubt it would strengthen the support for the Iranian regime but it'll surely have a negative impact on Iranians' view of the EU and the USA. the Iranian regime is still selling US dollar to traders with previous rates, so the traders and other businessmen will not feel the economic pressure, but ordinary Iranians like me who have to buy dollar with a double rate are really feeling the pressure.

2. Well, even if it doesn't have that affect in reality, it'll have an effect similar to that one psychologically. the EU is already in trouble, I'm sure a news like this will have an impact on European countries' economy at least psychologically.

3. the Iranian nuclear program won't get hurt if Iran loses 19 Billion US dollars, But Iranian people will surely be under pressure. In fact the USA and the EU hope that by doing this they'll weaken the public support for Iran's nuclear program inside Iran.

 

[nirreich]

Indeed. the EU and the USA are pushing hard for lower prices for China and India. This leaves Iran with no option but to sell its oil with lower prices to China.

From businessweek:


China isn't going to give up Iranian oil. They will continue buying Iranian oil and they will definitely increase their import of Iranian oil as well. That would be to the benefit of China and a great loss for the EU.



the Iranian government revenue is calculated in Iranian Rial (IRR) at the end of every Iranian fiscal year. (Iranian fiscal year ends on March 21st). Oil incomes are less than one fourth of the Iranian GDP, but it is about 60% of Iran's exports I think. the EU share of Iran's oil exports is 18% and as far as I know Iran's oil revenue in 2011 was around 105 US Billion dollars according to the IMF, so that would be like 19 Billion US dollars loss for the Iranian economy and that number surely won't cripple Iran's economy with a nominal GDP of $420.894 billion, but that would make so many problems for the Iranian people. It'll also have inevitable consequences for EU countries like an increase in gasoline prices. European countries like Greece, Italy and Spain will face more troubles than Iran when this decision comes to effect in July I think, so the European Union has to support them financially.


Yes, it is.


Russia itself is the world's largest oil producer, they don't import oil from Iran. Russia has enormous oil and gas reserves in Siberia and other federations of Russia, but China is already increasing its share of Iran's oil as I showed you in the news.



1. I doubt. People are really disappointed at how the regime is handling the economy. I'm personally very disappointed, although I will blame the USA for that, not Ahmadinejad. I was about to go to Georgia 2 weeks later for spending some time in there, with Iranian Rial devaluing like ***, the cost of travel for me has already doubled in less than a month. You can see how much I feel disappointed because if the Iranian rial keeps getting devalued, I'll have to pay much more for travel. So, I doubt it would strengthen the support for the Iranian regime but it'll surely have a negative impact on Iranians' view of the EU and the USA. the Iranian regime is still selling US dollar to traders with previous rates, so the traders and other businessmen will not feel the economic pressure, but ordinary Iranians like me who have to buy dollar with a double rate are really feeling the pressure.

2. Well, even if it doesn't have that affect in reality, it'll have an effect similar to that one psychologically. the EU is already in trouble, I'm sure a news like this will have an impact on European countries' economy at least psychologically.

3. the Iranian nuclear program won't get hurt if Iran loses 19 Billion US dollars, But Iranian people will surely be under pressure. In fact the USA and the EU hope that by doing this they'll weaken the public support for Iran's nuclear program inside Iran.

Europe can easily survive an oil embargo on Iran, otherwise it would not decide on it.

Unfortunately it is almost impossible to differentiate between the regime and the public when it comes to punitive measures. However, this alone cannot be an excuse for halting the international efforts to stop Iran's nuclear programme.

 

[indushek]

Indeed. the EU and the USA are pushing hard for lower prices for China and India. This leaves Iran with no option but to sell its oil with lower prices to China.

From businessweek:


China isn't going to give up Iranian oil. They will continue buying Iranian oil and they will definitely increase their import of Iranian oil as well. That would be to the benefit of China and a great loss for the EU.



the Iranian government revenue is calculated in Iranian Rial (IRR) at the end of every Iranian fiscal year. (Iranian fiscal year ends on March 21st). Oil incomes are less than one fourth of the Iranian GDP, but it is about 60% of Iran's exports I think. the EU share of Iran's oil exports is 18% and as far as I know Iran's oil revenue in 2011 was around 105 US Billion dollars according to the IMF, so that would be like 19 Billion US dollars loss for the Iranian economy and that number surely won't cripple Iran's economy with a nominal GDP of $420.894 billion, but that would make so many problems for the Iranian people. It'll also have inevitable consequences for EU countries like an increase in gasoline prices. European countries like Greece, Italy and Spain will face more troubles than Iran when this decision comes to effect in July I think, so the European Union has to support them financially.


Yes, it is.


Russia itself is the world's largest oil producer, they don't import oil from Iran. Russia has enormous oil and gas reserves in Siberia and other federations of Russia, but China is already increasing its share of Iran's oil as I showed you in the news.



1. I doubt. People are really disappointed at how the regime is handling the economy. I'm personally very disappointed, although I will blame the USA for that, not Ahmadinejad. I was about to go to Georgia 2 weeks later for spending some time in there, with Iranian Rial devaluing like ***, the cost of travel for me has already doubled in less than a month. You can see how much I feel disappointed because if the Iranian rial keeps getting devalued, I'll have to pay much more for travel. So, I doubt it would strengthen the support for the Iranian regime but it'll surely have a negative impact on Iranians' view of the EU and the USA. the Iranian regime is still selling US dollar to traders with previous rates, so the traders and other businessmen will not feel the economic pressure, but ordinary Iranians like me who have to buy dollar with a double rate are really feeling the pressure.

2. Well, even if it doesn't have that affect in reality, it'll have an effect similar to that one psychologically. the EU is already in trouble, I'm sure a news like this will have an impact on European countries' economy at least psychologically.

3. the Iranian nuclear program won't get hurt if Iran loses 19 Billion US dollars, But Iranian people will surely be under pressure. In fact the USA and the EU hope that by doing this they'll weaken the public support for Iran's nuclear program inside Iran.

No we aren't going onboard that wagon. We are continuing our Iranian oil imports.

India drawn to Iran's favourable oil terms - Reddy | Reuters

 

[Arian]

Europe can easily survive an oil embargo on Iran, otherwise it would not decide on it.

Unfortunately it is almost impossible to differentiate between the regime and the public when it comes to punitive measures. However, this alone cannot be an excuse for halting the international efforts to stop Iran's nuclear programme.

Of course EU can overcome it easily. I didn't say it would cripple their economy or it would have an important impact on their economy, but countries like Greece, Italy and Spain will find it harder to recover from the recession and the problems they are facing now.
Possibly one of the reasons that the EU has decided to make the decision come to effect 6 months later on the condition that the economic situation of the EU is better is because they can't cut Iran's oil imports right now. I see no other reasons that they should execute the decision 6 months later and not now.

 

[nirreich]

No we aren't going onboard that wagon. We are continuing our Iranian oil imports.

India drawn to Iran's favourable oil terms - Reddy | Reuters

Australia decided to join the EU embargo.

---------- Post added at 02:17 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:15 PM ----------

Of course EU can overcome it easily. I didn't say it would cripple their economy or it would have an important impact on their economy, but countries like Greece, Italy and Spain will find it harder to recover from the recession and the problems they are facing now.
Possibly one of the reasons that the EU has decided to make the decision come to effect 6 months later on the condition that the economic situation of the EU is better is because they can't cut Iran's oil imports right now. I see no other reasons that they should execute the decision 6 months later and not now.

The timeline is connected to KSA capability to replace Iran. Agreements already signed for this eventuality (at least with Spain).