End of USA as world's lone superpower?

[VCheng]

I only meant Nuclear Fusion as an example. Maybe it's a Cancer cure..or how to turn lead into gold..

They've set countries up for something.

All of the Middle East will be made over in the next few decades.

 

[war&peace]

I only meant Nuclear Fusion as an example. Maybe it's a Cancer cure..or how to turn lead into gold..

They've set countries up for something.

Oh I see so it is even more vague than I initially thought. BTW welcome aboard the conspiracy theory bandwagon. I mean if we say the similar stuff it would be called a conspiracy theory but if you say, it is an analysis and a prediction

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Game is not over yet! Far from it.

I never said the "game is over". This thread seems to have just two tracks. One has it US will prevail till hell fills up and time comes to end. The other track thinks USA is about to become used condom like Mexico. What I said is that over the horizon China will overtake USA. Every year we move forward we are getting closer to that point. I have not read any serious report that doubts China will overtake USA. The question is not "if" but "when". For instance Pricehousewatercooper report has USA at 3rd slot by 2050 and china at number 1 slot.

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html

• As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
• 
  
• The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050

Fastest-growing economy

• The US may not dominate for much longer, however.
• 
  
• Although China trails the US by $7 trillion, it’s catching up. China’s economy grew by 6.7% in 2016, compared with America’s 1.6%, according to the IMF.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017/

Note these are not fanboy Pakistani, mullah Iran, or Shining Star, China reports. Most reports I have read on the subject take it as China will be number one but all disagree in which decade. But all display remarkable concordance that US will end up second or third not because it will go down but because others are on a steeper trajectory.

 

[terranMarine]

I voted yes.
In fact China will be the world's largest economy very soon, if it is not already.
Probably by 2020 China will have the world's largest economy.

Yes the writing is on the wall, some believe China already is the biggest economy based on how it was calculated. Maybe China intentionally loves staying 2nd for the time being and withholding some data, who knows. The Western economic sites all cites that China is set to surpass USA within a decade. Yet some Yankees here still living in his own world thinks USA shall remain the biggest forever. Based on what kind of logic is that?

 

[MultaniGuy]

Yes the writing is on the wall, some believe China already is the biggest economy based on how it was calculated. Maybe China intentionally loves staying 2nd for the time being and withholding some data, who knows. The Western economic sites all cites that China is set to surpass USA within a decade. Yet some Yankees here still living in his own world thinks USA shall remain the biggest forever. Based on what kind of logic is that?

Is China's economy really the largest in the world?
By Ben CarterBBC News

• 16 December 2014

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Image copyrightTHINKSTOCK
For the first time in more than 140 years, the US has lost the title of the world's largest economy - it has been stolen by China, according to the IMF. But how reliable are the statistics underpinning this claim? The BBC's economics editor, Robert Peston, explains lower down why China matters to all of us.

The Chinese economy is now worth $17.6tn, slightly higher than the $17.4tn the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates for the US.

So for the first time since 1872, when it overtook the UK, the US has been knocked off the top spot.

The IMF calculated these figures by using purchasing power parity (PPP) which enables you to compare how much you can buy for your money in different countries. As money goes further in China than in the US, the figure for China is adjusted upwards.

Without the PPP adjustment, the IMF estimates that China's economy is worth far less - $10.3tn.

But how much faith can be placed in the accuracy of GDP figures supplied by China when even the current premier, Li Keqiang has doubted their validity in the past?

A declassified US diplomatic cable revealed that in 2007, Li, who was then secretary general of Liaoning Province, had told the US ambassador that Chinese GDP statistics were "man-made" and "for reference only".

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
But with a population of 1.36 billion people, China really should be the world's largest economy, argues Matthew Crabbe, author of Myth-Busting China's Numbers. He's spent more than 20 years looking at the country's figures and the facts behind them.

His reaction to China's new title: "So what?"

Listen to More or Less on BBC Radio 4 and the World Service, or download the free podcast

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He points out that if you look at per capita spending power - the value of all goods and services produced within a nation in a given year divided by the average population for the same year - then, even adjusted for PPP, China ($11,868) is still lagging a long way behind not only the United States ($53,001) but also the likes of Turkmenistan ($12,863) and Suriname ($16,080).

So how easy is it to accurately measure the size of the Chinese economy or even just parts of it?

Not very, says Crabbe. "One of the key things that has to be understood is that distortions that happen at the village and provincial levels become amplified as they go out the statistical gathering chain.

"Year on year the GDP figures for each province grew faster than the national total, which logically and mathematically could not be."

He attributes part of this discrepancy to corruption but also says that inaccuracies became exacerbated by the sheer size of the country and the rate at which it was growing.

Inaccurate GDP figures can have serious consequences for companies that base investment decisions on them. Crabbe has a cautionary tale.

Image copyrightAFP
In 2005 the Chinese government readjusted its GDP figures and the statistics on which they were based, including retail sales. The consensus in the retail community at the time was that nobody really understood the true size of the retail market in China.

"I went through each of the sectors to see what the real size of each of those would be, how fast they were growing and therefore what the real size of the retail market was.

"My conclusion was that the real retail market at that time was half the value of the official government figure," he says.

Crabbe discovered there were problems with definitions of what retail goods actually were. The government figures included wholesale sales of consumer goods, some government procurement, and some business to business sales - so not everything that had been included was strictly retail.

It's difficult to gauge whether the accuracy of definitions and the data have really improved in recent years. But the IMF forecasts growth of 7.4% in China for 2014 and 7.1% in 2015, compared to US growth of 2.2% this year and 3.1% next year.

This means that the Chinese are unlikely to relinquish their number one status soon. In fact the IMF predicts that by the end of this decade the Chinese economy will be worth $26.98tn - 20% bigger than the US at $22.3tn.

But while the US held the top spot for 142 years, China may not be able to match that record - long term financial forecasts from the IMF and others indicate that by 2100 India could overtake them both.

Why China matters
Robert Peston, BBC Economics Editor

The most important number in the world, for the past 30 years and next five years, is China's growth rate. For 30 years its economy grew at a mind-boggling rate - roughly 10% a year but that stopped when the global economy hit problems in 2008 and it fell very sharply.

Then the Chinese government did something remarkable and persuaded its banks to lend as if there was no tomorrow. They lent for investment and investment went up from an already extremely high 40% or so of GDP, to about 50% and the growth rate picked up again. There's been nothing like it in the history of capitalism. It's astonishing.

The Chinese have worked out that this new way of growing through debt funded investment rather than exports can't go on forever and is actually potentially quite dangerous. So they are trying to reconstruct the economy but it's not going desperately well and growth is now around 7%.

I'm not sure whether we can trust these numbers to be honest though. I think most of us would say that if we're slightly uneasy about most government statistics, then we're profoundly uneasy about China's statistics. We do know that China is slowing down and there is a big debate about how fast that should be happening.

But the big story that has influenced all our lives in the last 30 years has been the economic revolution in China. For years it improved our living standards by making the things we buy cheaper and cheaper. It gulled central banks everywhere into thinking they had inflation under control so they kept interest rates way too low for too long.

China generated these enormous surpluses, which it then lent to the US to finance its colossal deficit. China was the big economic force in the world - and it still is - but it's moving in the opposite direction and the speed at which it slows down and the way that it slows down influences all our lives.

We should be under no illusion that the really big thing in the world, which will have an impact on our living standards is what happens in China. Nothing else really matters in comparison.

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http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30483762

Its an old article, but it says China will be the largest economy soon.

 

[F-22Raptor]

I suppose F-22 still believes US shall remain as the biggest economy in the world for a very long time

Your projected demographics are telling. By 2050 China's population of 60 and above will be over 300 million. That's almost the entire US population. Your population is projected to fall by up to 400 million by the end of the century. Instead of being 4 times as large as the US, that will drop to only a little over 2 times. Even IF China's economy surpasses the US in the short term, the US may very well retake the lead again in the mid term.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Oh I see so it is even more vague than I initially thought. BTW welcome aboard the conspiracy theory bandwagon. I mean if we say the similar stuff it would be called a conspiracy theory but if you say, it is an analysis and a prediction

I'm just saying my 2¢ of something they could have up their sleeve. This was a vote they knew they had no chance of winning...what was the purpose of even going down this road?

 

[VCheng]

For the first time in more than 140 years, the US has lost the title of the world's largest economy

Incorrect, and that is just the first sentence.

USA was not the largest economy for the last 140 years, not by a long shot!

 

[MultaniGuy]

Incorrect, and that is just the first sentence.

USA was not the largest economy for the last 140 years, not by a long shot!

Well Mr. Haider, go tell that to the BBC then.

I am merely the messenger not the author of the article.

 

[VCheng]

Well Mr. Haider, go tell that to the BBC then.

I am merely the messenger not the author of the article.

It pays to know facts properly.

USA came into the lead only after WW2 when the dollar replaced the sterling.

 

[django]

And will wane more as China brings better options to the table then USA.

With the US absence from TPP, the Chinese certainly will take advantage .Kudos bro

 

[war&peace]

I'm just saying my 2¢ of something they could have up their sleeve. This was a vote they knew they had no chance of winning...what was the purpose of even going down this road?

But they didn't gain anything... let's suppose for moment that Israel has hit upon some new tech .. most likely smuggled to it from a US research institution with all IP rights etc. How this vote will alter anything for Israel? It could exploit the world anyway?

 

[KAL-EL]

There are many people on this forum who have wet dreams about the demise of US as a superpower and will grasp on to anything that makes US look bad, including this insignificant UNGA vote on Jerusalem.

^^^This in bold x1000

The over orgasming and cheerleading by some (not all) in circle jerk threads like this is approaching Cartoon level.

 

[LeGenD]

lol China is on the advance, and USA is on the backfoot!

The world is against USA in the UN. Thats a huge diplomatic defeat!

For Jerusalem only.

I never said the "game is over". This thread seems to have just two tracks. One has it US will prevail till hell fills up and time comes to end. The other track thinks USA is about to become used condom like Mexico. What I said is that over the horizon China will overtake USA. Every year we move forward we are getting closer to that point. I have not read any serious report that doubts China will overtake USA. The question is not "if" but "when". For instance Pricehousewatercooper report has USA at 3rd slot by 2050 and china at number 1 slot.

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html

• As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
• 
  
• The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050

Fastest-growing economy

• The US may not dominate for much longer, however.
• 
  
• Although China trails the US by $7 trillion, it’s catching up. China’s economy grew by 6.7% in 2016, compared with America’s 1.6%, according to the IMF.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/03/worlds-biggest-economies-in-2017/

Note these are not fanboy Pakistani, mullah Iran, or Shining Star, China reports. Most reports I have read on the subject take it as China will be number one but all disagree in which decade. But all display remarkable concordance that US will end up second or third not because it will go down but because others are on a steeper trajectory.

Bro,

Take all [long-term] economic projections with a grain of salt. They are typically based on a set-of-assumptions and/or grounded in current trends. In reality, economic conditions fluctuate a lot over the course of years due to different factors.

China is strong in the SUPPLY side of the equation at present. But what if Yuan appreciates a lot in its value and/or much of the world decides to cut-short its manufacturing-related investments in China in the coming years? Then what?

Fate of countries not just rest upon their actions but also on external actors. Global warming is in the picture and silently doing its work.

China is a experiencing a major desertification crises in its homeland: http://www.geocases1.co.uk/printable/Desertification and land degredation in China.htm

Pakistan is on the brink of experiencing a water crises: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/pakistan-droughts-2025-warning-water-levels-a7949226.html

Conditions of the world might change considerably in the next 50 years. All of us should fear one entity the most: Allah Almighty.

It is possible for China to outpace US even in the DEMAND side of equation at some point in the future, if everything proceeds in its favor. However, only Allah Almighty knows for sure what will happen.

I do not have blind faith in any man-made projections.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

But they didn't gain anything... let's suppose for moment that Israel has hit upon some new tech .. most likely smuggled to it from a US research institution with all IP rights etc. How this vote will alter anything for Israel? It could exploit the world anyway?

Say Israel has a cure for Cancer and they want to hold back from giving it to Arab countries. How could they pull it off without looking like the ultimate bad guy? They organize an obvious lame useless vote about their capital. Then they a few months later announce this cure and say the "trials" will start in their favorite UN countries. They expect the trials to last...oh at least a dozen years...