End of USA as world's lone superpower?

[Maarkhoor]

Kaun mungeri lal ? Pakistanis ?

I hit the spot again

 

[LeGenD]

No I am not. Your placing the cart before the horse. Britain did all that and built a web. USA did that and built a web. Both placed themselves in the centre to reign supreme.

But before they could do that they built up themelves to have the economic and military muscle. China is in process of building the muscle. Then horse will pull the cart. China will build all that and build a web. and client states will begin to gather around it because they will smell benefits.

Watch how countries start jumping on the china bandwagon driven by self interest. The Chinese are shrewd. They know money talks bullshat walks. Do you see Pakistan moving away from USA into the Chinese orbit more then ever before. I can assure you it's not because CCP offers take away called "athiesm" or the way it treats the Uighur Muslims.

$60 billion investment under CPEC does the trick. This is what you will see increasingingly.

You are assuming that Chinese economic prosperity is a given for indefinite period irrespective of the recent Petro-Yuan initiative and a number of other factors at play. See my response to an Iranian member in this thread: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/ending-dollar-dominance-in-world-market-updates.526367/page-5 (post no. 69)

Chinese economy [is] in struggling phase since 2015. Reason is that Chinese prioritized manufacturing over other aspects of economy for a long-time (the SUPPLY side of the equation). In this manner, China not only incurred lot of pollution but has been heavily reliant on American investment for its economic ends. However, this train is almost out of fuel and the Chinese are finally coming to terms with the FACT that they have to diversify their economic system much like the US in order to ensure a sustainable economic future; enter the OBOR initiative and embracing eco-friendly economic practices. However, it won't be easy for China to reduce its reliance on oil exports anytime soon and global warming is a major threat.

Note that IMF granted Yuan global reserve currency status in 2015; the whole Petro-Yuan chapter is an elaborate TRAP because China is almost out of excuses to keep Yuan devalued for indefinite period. Cheap Yuan ensures that Chinese products are affordable worldwide but this might change with Yuan acting as a global reserve currency in the years to come. In the matters of economy, something has to GIVE in response to a new initiative (this is a reality that escape the mind of many). China cannot have its cake and eat it in the manner it wants to for indefinite period.

Another thing is that Trump administration is not going to last forever. Remember the China-containment initiative of Obama administration? If Democrats come to power in the next elections, this initiative can be revived once again because it draw strength from Chinese territorial disputes with its neighbors across the Pacific and who doesn't want American companies to invest in their country? They bring a lot of technological know-how and create jobs.

China also benefits a great deal from its relations with Russia. However, in-case you haven't noticed, Russia desires good relations with the US in the long-term because this is in its best interests. Trump administration wanted to oblige but was stopped by the SENATE. If US and Russia ever manage to formulate a working relationship, this will enable US to counteract China from another angle because Russia will exercise neutrality consequently.

Even greater threat emanate from the GLOBAL WARMING phenomenon. China is experiencing a significant desertification crises in its homeland and has failed to tackle this phenomenon even after pouring billions of dollars into measures against it since the end of WW2. The Three Gorges Dam is also contributing to Chinese desertification crises, ironically.

Go through these links:

http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat10/sub66/item389.html
https://desertification.wordpress.c...ee-gorges-dam-a-new-great-wall-envirowriters/
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/1369903/ (Chinese paper)

Then there is also the question of aging population in China. Once a chunk of a billion+ population grows old, state-based measures to take care for them will be an extremely costly endeavor and a big strain on Chinese economy consequently.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...tion-becoming-more-of-a-problem/#661b04bd140f

Contrary to the popular belief, emerging realities are not hunky dory for Chinese economy in the foreseeable future. China has a lot on its plate and it is not easy to manage the needs of a billion+ population over the long-term, specially when the living standards are improving due to rapid urbanization. And what if the desertification crises grow to an extent that it triggers exodus of many Chinese from the homeland at some point in the future?

American population size is really small for the amount of resources at its disposal, but its spending is still massive due to the fact that living standards are much better there in comparison to the living standards in a large number of countries.

GDP per capita:-

Russia: 8748.36
China: 8123.18
India: 1709.39
Pakistan: 1468.19
Bangladesh: 1358.78

USA: 57466.79

Picture that, my friend.

---

China [can] do very well in all fronts in the near future but the ride is going to bumpy in the long-term, and the unforeseen.

One thing is clear that our world is likely to change a lot in the next 50 years. More importantly, Allah Almighty will decide the fate of every country in this world in the long-term. Remember that we all plan but we tend to overlook the God factor in the picture.

---

CPEC is a welcome development but it is not wise to put all your eggs in a single basket. Unlike many countries, Chinese [private] corporations do not have any issue in providing kickbacks to Pakistani politicians in exchange for favorable deals. Pakistan [should] diversify its economic investments and attempt to attract investment from all over the world. Otherwise, the country risks turning into a Chinese colony in the foreseeable future. Pakistan needs to revive its industry and worry about the looming water crises.

Do you know that the Global Warming phenomenon will subject Pakistan to droughts in the coming years? Lest we forget.

So instead of wasting our time in predicting decline of the US and fellating the Chinese at every forum (which may or may not happen due to the fact that US is a very resilient and powerful nation), we should worry about the future of Pakistan. Fear the Allah Almighty.

---

Rants aside, I aspect the world to be multi-polar in the near future. It is already multi-polar.

 

[Gurjot.S]

I hit the spot again

you are free to hit your own created spots.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

You are assuming

Yes, indeed I am assuming. But then so are you. And so do all other projections. You list reasons why the Chinese train will derail on it's journey to the top. There is no doubt that this journey like any human endevour is frought with problems. I am not going to answer each as it is pure speculation and as such I don't think it would make the case for or against any stronger. Our views will be largely informed by our political outlook. I respect your views.

However I would raise a few points for you to consider. I was in high school when our geography teacher talked about China and famine in one sentance. In less than 30 years that country has lifted more people out of poverty then any country has ever done in history. The CCP has brought about social and economic improvement to mass of humanity that is of biblical proportions. In my eyes it has done more good to humanity at the practical level then all religions combined. For what can be greater moral service to lift such a vast chunk of humanity out of disease, poverty, want, hunger?

To see the progress China has made in last 30 years is nothing short of a miracle. I know that word is a cliche but in this case it is appropriate and fitting to use. To if China has come this far up the mountain I have no doubt that it will prevail and get to the top but as you say along the way it has to face many challanges. But it has faced challanges all along. Facing challanges is not exceptional. Overcoming them is exceptional and thus far China has shown the genius to overcome it.

Every nation at the top including yours - USA faced a hard long journey to the top. You were not destined for it. You worked hard and overcame the challanges. If America could do it I can't see why China can't do it. Is there something intrinsic to American people that they conquered the challanges they faced but China won't? That seems incredibly haughty and borderline racist assumption.

Many here appear to be citing American exceptionalism. I am sorry I am not going to buy into the argument that Americans are blessed somehow but other peoples are not. You have had over 120 years as top dog in economic terms and have consolidated your position. From that high vantage Washington displays hubris and that no other peoples can get close to your lofty position amongst the gods in the clouds.

Don't forget once there was Rome. Once there were Caesars who played with gods. The only constant is change.

 

[royalharris]

You are assuming that Chinese economic prosperity is a given for indefinite period irrespective of the recent Petro-Yuan initiative and a number of other factors at play. See my response to an Iranian member in this thread: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/ending-dollar-dominance-in-world-market-updates.526367/page-5 (post no. 69)

Chinese economy [is] in struggling phase since 2015. Reason is that Chinese prioritized manufacturing over other aspects of economy for a long-time (the SUPPLY side of the equation). In this manner, China not only incurred lot of pollution but has been heavily reliant on American investment for its economic ends. However, this train is almost out of fuel and the Chinese are finally coming to terms with the FACT that they have to diversify their economic system much like the US in order to ensure a sustainable economic future; enter the OBOR initiative and embracing eco-friendly economic practices. However, it won't be easy for China to reduce its reliance on oil exports anytime soon and global warming is a major threat.

Note that IMF granted Yuan global reserve currency status in 2015; the whole Petro-Yuan chapter is an elaborate TRAP because China is almost out of excuses to keep Yuan devalued for indefinite period. Cheap Yuan ensures that Chinese products are affordable worldwide but this might change with Yuan acting as a global reserve currency in the years to come. In the matters of economy, something has to GIVE in response to a new initiative (this is a reality that escape the mind of many). China cannot have its cake and eat it in the manner it wants to for indefinite period.

Another thing is that Trump administration is not going to last forever. Remember the China-containment initiative of Obama administration? If Democrats come to power in the next elections, this initiative can be revived once again because it draw strength from Chinese territorial disputes with its neighbors across the Pacific and who doesn't want American companies to invest in their country? They bring a lot of technological know-how and create jobs.

China also benefits a great deal from its relations with Russia. However, in-case you haven't noticed, Russia desires good relations with the US in the long-term because this is in its best interests. Trump administration wanted to oblige but was stopped by the SENATE. If US and Russia ever manage to formulate a working relationship, this will enable US to counteract China from another angle because Russia will exercise neutrality consequently.

Even greater threat emanate from the GLOBAL WARMING phenomenon. China is experiencing a significant desertification crises in its homeland and has failed to tackle this phenomenon even after pouring billions of dollars into measures against it since the end of WW2. The Three Gorges Dam is also contributing to Chinese desertification crises, ironically.

Go through these links:

http://factsanddetails.com/china/cat10/sub66/item389.html
https://desertification.wordpress.c...ee-gorges-dam-a-new-great-wall-envirowriters/
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/1369903/ (Chinese paper)

Then there is also the question of aging population in China. Once a chunk of a billion+ population grows old, state-based measures to take care for them will be an extremely costly endeavor and a big strain on Chinese economy consequently.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...tion-becoming-more-of-a-problem/#661b04bd140f

Contrary to the popular belief, emerging realities are not hunky dory for Chinese economy in the foreseeable future. China has a lot on its plate and it is not easy to manage the needs of a billion+ population over the long-term, specially when the living standards are improving due to rapid urbanization. And what if the desertification crises grow to an extent that it triggers exodus of many Chinese from the homeland at some point in the future?

American population size is really small for the amount of resources at its disposal, but its spending is still massive due to the fact that living standards are much better there in comparison to the living standards in a large number of countries.

GDP per capita:-

Russia: 8748.36
China: 8123.18
India: 1709.39
Pakistan: 1468.19
Bangladesh: 1358.78

USA: 57466.79

Picture that, my friend.

---

China [can] do very well in all fronts in the near future but the ride is going to bumpy in the long-term, and the unforeseen.

One thing is clear that our world is likely to change a lot in the next 50 years. More importantly, Allah Almighty will decide the fate of every country in this world in the long-term. Remember that we all plan but we tend to overlook the God factor in the picture.

---

CPEC is a welcome development but it is not wise to put all your eggs in a single basket. Unlike many countries, Chinese [private] corporations do not have any issue in providing kickbacks to Pakistani politicians in exchange for favorable deals. Pakistan [should] diversify its economic investments and attempt to attract investment from all over the world. Otherwise, the country risks turning into a Chinese colony in the foreseeable future. Pakistan needs to revive its industry and worry about the looming water crises.

Do you know that the Global Warming phenomenon will subject Pakistan to droughts in the coming years? Lest we forget.

So instead of wasting our time in predicting decline of the US and fellating the Chinese at every forum (which may or may not happen due to the fact that US is a very resilient and powerful nation), we should worry about the future of Pakistan. Fear the Allah Almighty.

---

Rants aside, I aspect the world to be multi-polar in the near future. It is already multi-polar.

GDP per capital of 2017 by IMF:
Turkey 9594.038USD
China 9481.881USD
Russia 8949.197USD
Brasil 8471.814USD
India 1964.973USD
Bangladesh 1462.887USD

Although all kinds of reasons china economy should slow down, but the truth is chinese ecnomy still increase very fast
China have set the growth goal of 6.5%， But in the end the growth speed is 6.8%

 

[soundwave1987]

US may remains unchallenged for a very long time. Yes China is taking over US as the largest economy by GDP in next decade, but even then they are still 4 times more productive than us (right now they are 5 times more productive). China's manufacturing is the largest in the world and moving upward in the chain, but still we need a much larger service factor to improve our lives. In short-mid term, We may overweight them in economy and counter them(at least in some extent) in technology and millitary, but still they(and the west) hold up the basic (political, philosophy, economic, cultrual) rules, standerds which our modern world even including NorthKorea built on. They have Briton/Canada/Austrilia/New Zealand and whole europe stand with them but we don't even have Korea and Japan on our side(let alone build a whole new eastern world order/system), so it's unlikely to change the world from the "west made" in the coming decades.
But I'm not worried too much about our aging population. In Chinese language, challenge/risk contains the meaning of opportunity too( like the yin and the yang), that's why we are investing hugely in AI and automation, which could easy the aging problem and be more productive right? Besides, in the worst sinario, we will have to work untill 70 years old like the Japanese today, but the ecomomy will still be a lot better than predicted. Why? Because current predictions and researches overlooked the huge gap of human capital between generations( because it will be too complicate to calculate and almost unquantifiable). The aging generation( our parents) is actually much less capable and less productive than my peers, and I can't tell you how astonished I was when I constantly saw the much higher productivity and capacity on the younger generations, especially those born in the end of 1990s and after 2000s ( I'm not that old and uncapable actually, I was born in the late 1980s and have a phd degree, but still). So, when we are really facing the aging problem, the overall productivity of our population is actually higher than today's. And when our parents( the less productive and largest aging geration) eventually pass away, our demographic structure will return to a better one.
In the end, our intention was never about replacing the US to be the sole superpower but improving ourselves. We don't care that much about wheither the US is declining or not, we care only about to improve our condition, to create better and more, to conttribute more to our 5000 years civilization, to answer the expectation of our ancestors, to take the responsibility of our time, and to ensure a better future for our childern.