Election results: Assam, Kerala, TN and West Bengal

[TejasMk3]

Tamil Nadu vote share decline should be due to absence of partners as well. But at least it gives you the extend of real BJP supporters in TN.

Support base of admk and bjp overlap to a certain extent,many who for bjp in 2014 preferred to voted for admk this election. just to make sure dmk is kept out...people vote differently for central and state elections.

IMO it is not right to compare 2014 percentages to 2016 state election percentages.

In 2011 BJP got 2.2%, compared 2.8% this time.

Also wrt to local bjp state unit, read this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/733508303729238020

 

[dray]

See who is getting hurt after 2014.....lolzzz
View attachment 306088

For Bengal I can tell you that Congress has increased it's vote share and seats because of their alliance with CPM, a '24-ghanta' news channel survey showed that 97% of the CPM supporters said that they will vote for Congress if there is a Congress candidate from the alliance. Interestingly, 75% of the Congress supporters said that they will NOT vote for CPM if there is a CPM candidate from the alliance.......CPM gave all its votes to Congress but got nothing in return, Congress party workers in Bengal simply didn't forget the reign of terror unleashed upon them during the left rule.

However, Congress is a marginal player in Bengal with less than 10% captive vote and presence in 3 districts. BJP has a similar or a little more captive vote in Bengal, but they are scattered all over the state and results in lesser seats, but you can expect that the BJP vote share that went to TMC in state election, (because BJP had little chance in state election and there was also a tacit understanding between BJP and TMC) will go back to BJP in LS election. Besides, BJP might emerge as the main opposition in Bengal from this point if they get their acts together, because CPM seems to be dead horse in Bengal permanently (now their cadres will start leaving) and Congress is toothless in Bengal for the last 3-4 decades, and very likely to remain so in future also.

 

[Darmashkian]

Adding to that, there are 2 more regional players who will come into play.

One is KCR and another Naidu. Neither have national ambitions as well. Naidu is facing a tough enemy and needs BJP in next elections to defeat YSRCP. He has no where else to turn to.
KCR on the other hand is an interesting chap. He has outwitted a lot of people in the last 5 years, so, I wouldn't under estimate him. Rumour has it that KCR's daughter will soon join in Modi's cabinet.

Point is, we keep talking about regional players but each regional player have their own interests at state level at hand, except for 3 people in Nitish, Mulayam and Kejru...and none of these 3 can work under each other.
Imagine Kejru trying to boss Mulayam

I will talk about naidu and KCR here.

Naidu does NOT need the BJP in AP. BjP is a big zero here and is in worse shape than TN BJP , can't even win a ward election here.

TDP can win 2019 on it's own.

And until BJP fulfills the big big promises made by Arun Jaitley,venkaiah naidu,modi(in his speeches) ato AP. It will remain a zero.

Venkaiah gave great publicity to how he saved AP in the Rajya sabha and repeated the big promises he and jaitley made there and outside parliament all over the state. He even got modi to praise him in public as to how he saved AP. Now he has gone in MMS mode regarding those promises and is very silent
---±-------------------

See KCR will not allow BJP to grow in TG at all in an alliance. That is pretty much obvious. He is very cunning and shrewd and very untrustworthy,more than CBN.
Also an alliance with KCR will mean u will continue to remain a zero in AP.

Add to that you can't have KCR and CBN on the same team, only one of them can be on your side.

And that rumour has been around for the past 2 years. Ignore it. As long as venkaiah naidu,modi and Delhi leadership wills,the alliance with TDP stays.

Support base of admk and bjp overlap to a certain extent,many who for bjp in 2014 preferred to voted for admk this election. just to make sure dmk is kept out...people vote differently for central and state elections.

IMO it is not right to compare 2014 percentages to 2016 state election percentages.

In 2011 BJP got 2.2%, compared 2.8% this time.

Also wrt to local bjp state unit, read this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/733508303729238020

Agreed. Many Hindu Munnani guys along with BJP supporters voted for Amma to stop karunanidhi and the church.

I believe BJP should have had an alliance with the PMK. Anbumani seemed to have changed and tried to reform his party and its outreach going by his public stand.

Gaptun and Vaiko, I would say their career is in coma and almost dead .

By the way the Telugu mentioned in that set of tweets is Venkaiah Naidu. He and his son are supposed to have business deals with many netas across all parties.

 

[CorporateAffairs]

Do not stop till Anti National Congress is buried deep under the sea.

BJP win is Assam makes it a "TRUE" national party, North, South, East West.
BJP raise in Bengal worries Momta, hence she started attacking BJP as soon as the results were out.
Kerala is also a good win (1 equals 10). But Rajagopalan is old and is ageing. More young people should now pickup the lantern.
Tamil Nadu is always a dravidian party, hence i simply ignore that state. Tamilains are stuck with Jaya and Karuna, they dont know how to come out. Vijaykanth proved to another joker after Chiranjeevi in Andhra.

BJPAssam should now pickup the long standing illegal immigration issue, speed up the laser wall on Assam - Bangla border. Identify Indian citizens and provide them Nationality cards ASAP. Assam and north east needs flushing out the illegal migrants into our Union.

All the best Sonorwal.

I will talk about naidu and KCR here.

Naidu does NOT need the BJP in AP. BjP is a big zero here and is in worse shape than TN BJP , can't even win a ward election here. TDP can win 2019 on it's own.

TDP is going down faster than expected. TDP will not win 19" unless BJP and Pawan Kalyan supports them.

Uttarandhra, Rayalaseema regions are angry over, Naidu doing same mistake as in Hyderabad. Desperate to centralize everything at Vijaywada (read as amaravathi).

He promised Railway Zone to Vizag and his own party MPs are trying to sabotage it and take away to vijaywada or guntur.

Similarly in Rayalaseema, people are angry over Kurnool losing everything to Kosta region (read as Guntur, Vijaywada).

Now, BJP has nothing to lose in AP, thanks to Venkayya Naidu who kept his own party under check to benefit his caste friends, the TDP (Both Naidus belong to Kamma caste).

WRT to 19" you will see big changes in AP political scene in coming years and runup to the general polls.

If Venkayya is is not given another RS term and is kicked out of union cabinet then it is sure that BJP will fight against TDP with help of other forces. If Venkayya gets another RS term, stays as minister then BJP will continue to play with TDP in AP.

 

[Nimitam]

Do not stop till Anti National Congress is buried deep under the sea.

BJP win is Assam makes it a "TRUE" national party, North, South, East West.
BJP raise in Bengal worries Momta, hence she started attacking BJP as soon as the results were out.
Kerala is also a good win (1 equals 10). But Rajagopalan is old and is ageing. More young people should now pickup the lantern.
Tamil Nadu is always a dravidian party, hence i simply ignore that state. Tamilains are stuck with Jaya and Karuna, they dont know how to come out. Vijaykanth proved to another joker after Chiranjeevi in Andhra.

BJPAssam should now pickup the long standing illegal immigration issue, speed up the laser wall on Assam - Bangla border. Identify Indian citizens and provide them Nationality cards ASAP. Assam and north east needs flushing out the illegal migrants into our Union.

All the best Sonorwal.

Be careful what you wish for.

If congress is dead and buried, BJP will no longer have a reason to be pro Hindu. It will turn into another Congress.

 

[CorporateAffairs]

Support base of admk and bjp overlap to a certain extent,many who for bjp in 2014 preferred to voted for admk this election. just to make sure dmk is kept out...people vote differently for central and state elections.

IMO it is not right to compare 2014 percentages to 2016 state election percentages.
In 2011 BJP got 2.2%, compared 2.8% this time.
Also wrt to local bjp state unit, read this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/733508303729238020

TN BJP is similer to AP BJP, playing as servants to Dravidian parties and TeluguDesam.

KL is different and thats why we saw BJP winning there.

As long as BJP leadership in TN and AP continue to act as stooges and servants to parties in power, BJP will never ever grow in those states.

Be careful what you wish for.

If congress is dead and buried, BJP will no longer have a reason to be pro Hindu. It will turn into another Congress.

This is will see raise another National party which believes in Nationalism. Good for the country.
But Congress is dead anti national, should be buried ASAP.

 

[Darmashkian]

Do not stop till Anti National Congress is buried deep under the sea.

BJP win is Assam makes it a "TRUE" national party, North, South, East West.
BJP raise in Bengal worries Momta, hence she started attacking BJP as soon as the results were out.
Kerala is also a good win (1 equals 10). But Rajagopalan is old and is ageing. More young people should now pickup the lantern.
Tamil Nadu is always a dravidian party, hence i simply ignore that state. Tamilains are stuck with Jaya and Karuna, they dont know how to come out. Vijaykanth proved to another joker after Chiranjeevi in Andhra.

BJPAssam should now pickup the long standing illegal immigration issue, speed up the laser wall on Assam - Bangla border. Identify Indian citizens and provide them Nationality cards ASAP. Assam and north east needs flushing out the illegal migrants into our Union.

All the best Sonorwal.



TDP is going down faster than expected. TDP will not win 19" unless BJP and Pawan Kalyan supports them.

Uttarandhra, Rayalaseema regions are angry over, Naidu doing same mistake as in Hyderabad. Desperate to centralize everything at Vijaywada (read as amaravathi).

He promised Railway Zone to Vizag and his own party MPs are trying to sabotage it and take away to vijaywada or guntur.

Similarly in Rayalaseema, people are angry over Kurnool losing everything to Kosta region (read as Guntur, Vijaywada).

Now, BJP has nothing to lose in AP, thanks to Venkayya Naidu who kept his own party under check to benefit his caste friends, the TDP (Both Naidus belong to Kamma caste).

WRT to 19" you will see big changes in AP political scene in coming years and runup to the general polls.

If Venkayya is is not given another RS term and is kicked out of union cabinet then it is sure that BJP will fight against TDP with help of other forces. If Venkayya gets another RS term, stays as minister then BJP will continue to play with TDP in AP.

Dont worry, it is just the middle of the term.

In 2018-2019 when the good work shows itsel and results come+ some of the stuff Venkaiyya promised, then the nos of TDP will go up and CBN will win again.

And NO, CBN does not want to take the railway zone from vizag.
La contraire He is fighting hard for it in the centre.
That is propaganda of the opposition and joker jagan.

If we haven't got it ,blame suresh prabbu for not giving it and the government of Odisha which is strongly opposing a railway zone for vizag and not CBN.

And going down??
Yes,tdp is falling apart and collapsing .
No wonder all those Ysrcp MLAs are deserting jagan to join the Telugu Desam. And the party organisation has grown stronger in rayalaseema and nelluru.

Also the bobbili raja has put apart his centuries old rivalry with the vizianagaram Rajus to join the TDP .

So how is it falling apart or collapsing?? Organisation is strong ,but some resentment and anger among people is there which will come down by 2019 when results show and many schemes will be fulfilled .
_--------------------++++
Venkaiah actually wants to be a governor or some other post,not a minister
It was on MODIs insistence he stayed in the cabinet. Venkaiah is loyal to him and modi depends on him. Add to that he is powerful at the Delhi HQ and among the RSS top leadership.

Dont worry, he willl continue to have influence in the BJP. Regardless of whether he is a minister /MP or not.

And are Amit shah and modi so stupid to depend on him and keep him around when they know he is loyal to his caste?

I agree he is incompetent and not that good.but don't jump to hasty conclusions like the pinkies and KCR bhakts always do.

Be careful what you wish for.

If congress is dead and buried, BJP will no longer have a reason to be pro Hindu. It will turn into another Congress.

I read from the wiki leaks us ambassadoor cables many years ago.
Arun jaitley told the American ambassador during UPA-1 that nobody in the BJP top leadership gives a damn about hindutva and it is only used for votes and it is a secular party!!

Even nitin gadkari once talked of rebuilding babri from what I've heard.

Since then I have little faith in BJP and hindutva.

Is modi even a hindutvawadi like us or is he like Arun jaitley who looks down on it?

 

[Star Wars]

I read from the wiki leaks us ambassadoor cables many years ago.
Arun jaitley told the American ambassador during UPA-1 that nobody in the BJP top leadership gives a damn about hindutva and it is only used for votes and it is a secular party!!

Even nitin gadkari once talked of rebuilding babri from what I've heard.

Since then I have little faith in BJP and hindutva. Is modi even a hindutvawadi or is he like Arun jaitley who looks down on it?

Modi along with his loyalists i believe are hindutvadi's as opposed to the 160 gang.

 

[Nimitam]

I read from the wiki leaks us ambassadoor cables many years ago.
Arun jaitley told the American ambassador during UPA-1 that nobody in the BJP top leadership gives a damn about hindutva and it is only used for votes and it is a secular party!!

Even nitin gadkari once talked of rebuilding babri from what I've heard.

Since then I have little faith in BJP and hindutva.

Is modi even a hindutvawadi like us or is he like Arun jaitley who looks down on it?

Modi was a RSS Pracharak. He was also the organizer of the Ram Mandir movement. He is an ex sanyasi who marched to kashmir to hoist Indian flag in Srinagar. Then the reaction go Godhra train burning. His brining Dr. Subramanian Swamy to the Rajya Sabha.

How many more proof do you need ? I am with BJP only because Modi is a true Hindutvadi. Jaitley is a product of lutyens, a product of the system. Modi's origin is from outside the system. Amit Shah too is a strong believer.

Most of the BJP is full of opportunistic politicians who don't give a damn about anything other than their next victory and power. There are a few like Giriraj singh (who Modi made minister despite his comments), or Adityanath etc. who are pro Hindutva.

But end of the day Modi is the PM of India and has to treat all Indians with the same level of service.

 

[Darmashkian]

Modi was a RSS Pracharak. He was also the organizer of the Ram Mandir movement. He is an ex sanyasi who marched to kashmir to hoist Indian flag in Srinagar. Then the reaction go Godhra train burning. His brining Dr. Subramanian Swamy to the Rajya Sabha.

How many more proof do you need ? I am with BJP only because Modi is a true Hindutvadi. Jaitley is a product of lutyens, a product of the system. Modi's origin is from outside the system.

Hmm. Yep I have always trusted modi a lot. But I don't trust these Lutyens Delhi heroes of the BJP. And jaitley too is quite close to modi, add to that o have been inactive from politics for some time.

Let me quote the late Ashok Singhal-" for the first time a proud Hindu is ruling from Delhi in 8 centuries" .

This is enough to convince me who modi is with

@CorporateAffairs @Mike_Brando @Star Wars

https://twitter.com/x/status/733844830774689792

Didi openly threatens aveek sarker,
Amma snubs and kicks out Sun TV and Kalaignar TV,
babu garu ignores sakshi completely,
KCR bans TV channels not on his side and forces print media(including eenadu) not to criticise him as far as possible ;and only praise him.

And Arun jaitley runs to ndtv every now and then with chandan Mitra. And together with barkha and prannoy they attack the BJP's SM supporters -_-.

And everybody takes credit for piyush goyals and gadkaris good work

What a media policy.

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

TN BJP is similer to AP BJP, playing as servants to Dravidian parties and TeluguDesam.

KL is different and thats why we saw BJP winning there.

As long as BJP leadership in TN and AP continue to act as stooges and servants to parties in power, BJP will never ever grow in those states.



This is will see raise another National party which believes in Nationalism. Good for the country.
But Congress is dead anti national, should be buried ASAP.

As for starters. This is the first time BJP ever tried to take TN seriously. The worst part is, they never improved upon the 2014 elections when they won the Kanyakumari constituency (consolidation of Hindu vote against christian vote) and Dharmapuri by PMK Anbumani Ramadoss( Vanniyar caste votes).
I expected BJP to win assembly seats at Kanyakumari. But a huge disappointment. It means they have more work left out. BJP should try to work on their strength in areas where Hindus feel marginalised and try to win 10 to 15 seats before trying to expand pan tamil nadu. It has now worked in Kerala and WB, and it will work in TN. it will just take 2 more elections.

 

[Nimitam]

Hmm. Yep I have always trusted modi a lot. But I don't trust these Lutyens Delhi heroes of the BJP. And jaitley too is quite close to modi, add to that o have been inactive from politics for some time.

Let me quote the late Ashok Singhal-" for the first time a proud Hindu is ruling from Delhi in 8 centuries" .

This is enough to convince me who modi is with

@CorporateAffairs @Mike_Brando @Star Wars

https://twitter.com/x/status/733844830774689792

Didi openly threatens aveek sarker,
Amma snubs and kicks out Sun TV and Kalaignar TV,
babu garu ignores sakshi completely,
KCR bans TV channels not on his side and forces print media(including eenadu) not to criticise him as far as possible ;and only praise him.

And Arun jaitley runs to ndtv every now and then with chandan Mitra. And together with barkha and prannoy they attack the BJP's SM supporters -_-.

And everybody takes credit for piyush goyals and gadkaris good work

What a media policy.

I completely agree with everything you have said. Those are exactly my sentiments. Prakash Javdekar comes across as an idiot.

Nitin Gadkari when asked on NDTV what he thought of Arvind Kejriwal attack the PM, he mumbled around and said he has forgiven AK. People like to see strength, not platitudes to the enemy. I was disgusted with his reply.

Even the BJP spokesperson makes me want to slap them. Only Nalin Koli seems to know how to speak. If only we could get more of his clones.

They have been in the opposition for so long, their balls have withered away.

 

[Marxist]

nemathu mathram kanakku koottalill paalicha patti..athu ozhichu nirthiyaal njaan poorna santhoshavaanu prathekichum vellapalliyude kaaryathill..avanulla pani varaan irikkunatheyullu..njaan ente vaaku paalikunnu..ella aashamsakalum nerunnu..poorna thripthiyode vida chollunnu..bye bye for ever..thankyu..nanni..

There is no reason for joy ,Vellapalli got 4% voteshare from 36 seats ,thats a good figure for 5 month old party with Hindutva ideolgy ,He can build the party or merge it with BJP ,Vellapalliye thottal kali marum athu Pinaryikku ariyam athukondu kooduthal pratheeksha venda ,This election BJP got Hindu votes from Congress ,Next election BJP will eat Left's Hindu votebank ...

And no need to leave for a silly bet

 

[Darmashkian]

There is no reason for joy ,Vellapalli got 4% voteshare from 36 seats ,thats a good figure for 5 month old party with Hindutva ideolgy ,He can build the party or merge it with BJP ,Vellapalliye thottal kali marum athu Pinaryikku ariyam athukondu kooduthal pratheeksha venda ,This election BJP got Hindu votes from Congress ,Next election BJP will eat Left's Hindu votebank ...

And no need to leave for a silly bet

@mooppan @Nair saab @nair @Levina

Can you tell me more about this Thomas Isaac-(The CPM MLA who will be the FM) & his policies & the school of economics he believes in? I find his emphasis on organic farming quite interesting.

& can you tell me more about this People's Plan Campaign?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Planning_in_Kerala

@mooppan - I doubt there is any need for you to leave. But if you are, then Bye Bye & Good Luck
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/list-of-ministers-in-kerala-cabinet/article8644493.ece
Compared to the ministerial list of the UDF. Majority >>Minority

I see more Hindus(14) than Christians(3) & Muslims(2) in here. Why?

Is the Left trying to keep it's Hindu vote safe & together to prevent poaching from the BJP?

 

[Nair saab]

@mooppan @Nair saab @nair @Levina

Can you tell me more about this Thomas Isaac-(The CPM MLA who will be the FM) & his policies & the school of economics he believes in? I find his emphasis on organic farming quite interesting.

Darmashkian Just remember one thing the word Communist and Economist never go hand in hand... A good economist can never be a Communist...


[QUOTE="Darmashkian, post: 8332449, member: 144075"
Compared to the ministerial list of the UDF. Majority >>Minority

I see more Hindus(14) than Christians(3) & Muslims(2) in here. Why?

Is the Left trying to keep it's Hindu vote safe & together to prevent poaching from the BJP?[/QUOTE]

Well

14 Communist Hindu Ministers = 0 Hindus Ministers

3 Communist Christians ministers = 3 Christian Ministers

2 Communist Muslim ministers = 2 Muslim Ministers

So Minority is still > Then Majority...

Do u want any more analysis from me???

Good thing is that education ministry is no more in the hand of Christian or a Muslim... It has always been in the hands of Minority ... but in the hands of Communist Hindu minister we get more High caste Bias and communist Martyrdom in text books and the teachers would no more wear Green Blouses instead a Red blouse from now on to welcome the Education minister...

Bad thing is that Home ministry is in the hand of our Quotation Gang leader (CM) Pinarayi Vijayan... Just imagine a Criminal handling the State Police Hahahahahahaha....