http://www.riazhaq.com/2018/01/trumps-godfather-doctrine-new-years.html
President Donald Trump began year 2018 with his very first tweet insulting and threatening Pakistan. Is this a continuing manifestation of what American foreign policy experts John Hulsman and Wes Mitchell call "The Godfather Doctrine"? Is Trump prepared to reject the US-created post World War II international institutional framework? Is he ready to abandon diplomatic route and act unilaterally against a whole range of nations, including Pakistan, refusing to kowtow? Does he think threats and intimidation will work with other nations? Is Trump willing to make a transactional arrangement with Pakistan? Let's examine possible answers to these questions.
Post World War II International Order:
After winning the second world war, the United States led the creation of a new rules-based architecture that heavily favored the United States above all other nations. International institutions such as the United Nations (UN) and its various agencies, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, World Trade Organization (WTO) and others to exercise power.
President Trump and his friends like Steve Bannon appear to be rejecting the value of this international framework created and sustained by his predecessors. Their preference is for transactional rather than strategic relationships with long-time US allies such as the Western Europeans and the Pakistanis.
Trump's Bilateral/Transactional Model:
Trump, a real estate developer, sees other nations like he saw his business partners, financiers and customers. Each deal is a transaction that must stand on its own. There's no such thing as "long term" or "strategic". Trump is willing to use intimidation and threats to try to get his way just as the Godfather movie character "Vito Corleone" tried. But he is rejecting renewing and using US-built international framework to deal with issues diplomatically.
Parallels with Vito Corleone:
As a superpower in relative decline like the Godfather in the movie, the United States faces a situation similar to the one Vito Corleone's sons Michael and Sonny and adopted son Tom Hagen, the consiglieri, faced right after the unexpected attack on the feared but aging Vito Corleone at the peak of his power that he built by an institutional framework that rewarded policemen, politicians, judges and competing crime bosses in New York City.
The elaborate international alliances and institutions that US has built over 60 years ago, such as UN Security Council, NATO, World Bank, OECD, WTO, IMF, IAEA etc, through which America exercises tremendous power and control, are being weakened by Donald Trump, and my guess is that these alliances and institutions will not survive as they are today. There will be a major realignment of nations, as the powerful new players, particularly China and Russia and other emerging powers such as India and Pakistan, demand greater say in world affairs.
US-Pakistan Transactional Relationship:
How can US and Pakistan negotiate an end to the current impasse if the Trump administration decides to cut whatever little aid Pakistan receives from the United States? Pakistan could demand significant fees for the use of Pakistani territory by the United States to supply its troops. If the US refuses, Pakistan could simply cut off the NATO supply route as it did back in 2011 after the Salala incident.
Summary:
Trump appears to be opting for the "Godfather Doctrine" to make offers that he mistakenly believes no one can refuse. He rejects the the renewal or use of the US-sponsored international institutional framework. Given the transactional nature of the relationships the Trump administration seeks, what would a transaction look like between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi? It could be in the form of Pakistan continuing to allow the use of its airspace and land routes to supply US troops in Afghanistan for substantial fees that could add up to more than the US aid to Pakistan today. If the US balks at it, Pakistan could simply cut off US supply routes as it did back in 2011 after the Salala incident.
Here's a discussion related to this subject:
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
What is the Haqqani Network?
Why is India Sponsoring Terror in Pakistan?
Mullah Mansoor Akhtar Killing in US Drone Strike
Gen Petraeus Debunks Charges of Pakistani Duplicity
Husain Haqqani vs Riaz Haq on India vs Pakistan
Impact of Trump's Top Picks on Pakistan
Husain Haqqani Advising Trump on Pakistan Policy?
Gall-Haqqani-Paul Narrative on Pakistan
Pakistan-China-Russia vs India-US-Japan
Robert Gates' Straight Talk on Pakistan
http://www.riazhaq.com/2018/01/trumps-godfather-doctrine-new-years.html
President Donald Trump began year 2018 with his very first tweet insulting and threatening Pakistan. Is this a continuing manifestation of what American foreign policy experts John Hulsman and Wes Mitchell call "The Godfather Doctrine"? Is Trump prepared to reject the US-created post World War II international institutional framework? Is he ready to abandon diplomatic route and act unilaterally against a whole range of nations, including Pakistan, refusing to kowtow? Does he think threats and intimidation will work with other nations? Is Trump willing to make a transactional arrangement with Pakistan? Let's examine possible answers to these questions.
Post World War II International Order:
After winning the second world war, the United States led the creation of a new rules-based architecture that heavily favored the United States above all other nations. International institutions such as the United Nations (UN) and its various agencies, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, World Trade Organization (WTO) and others to exercise power.
President Trump and his friends like Steve Bannon appear to be rejecting the value of this international framework created and sustained by his predecessors. Their preference is for transactional rather than strategic relationships with long-time US allies such as the Western Europeans and the Pakistanis.
Trump's Bilateral/Transactional Model:
Trump, a real estate developer, sees other nations like he saw his business partners, financiers and customers. Each deal is a transaction that must stand on its own. There's no such thing as "long term" or "strategic". Trump is willing to use intimidation and threats to try to get his way just as the Godfather movie character "Vito Corleone" tried. But he is rejecting renewing and using US-built international framework to deal with issues diplomatically.
Parallels with Vito Corleone:
As a superpower in relative decline like the Godfather in the movie, the United States faces a situation similar to the one Vito Corleone's sons Michael and Sonny and adopted son Tom Hagen, the consiglieri, faced right after the unexpected attack on the feared but aging Vito Corleone at the peak of his power that he built by an institutional framework that rewarded policemen, politicians, judges and competing crime bosses in New York City.
The elaborate international alliances and institutions that US has built over 60 years ago, such as UN Security Council, NATO, World Bank, OECD, WTO, IMF, IAEA etc, through which America exercises tremendous power and control, are being weakened by Donald Trump, and my guess is that these alliances and institutions will not survive as they are today. There will be a major realignment of nations, as the powerful new players, particularly China and Russia and other emerging powers such as India and Pakistan, demand greater say in world affairs.
US-Pakistan Transactional Relationship:
How can US and Pakistan negotiate an end to the current impasse if the Trump administration decides to cut whatever little aid Pakistan receives from the United States? Pakistan could demand significant fees for the use of Pakistani territory by the United States to supply its troops. If the US refuses, Pakistan could simply cut off the NATO supply route as it did back in 2011 after the Salala incident.
Summary:
Trump appears to be opting for the "Godfather Doctrine" to make offers that he mistakenly believes no one can refuse. He rejects the the renewal or use of the US-sponsored international institutional framework. Given the transactional nature of the relationships the Trump administration seeks, what would a transaction look like between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi? It could be in the form of Pakistan continuing to allow the use of its airspace and land routes to supply US troops in Afghanistan for substantial fees that could add up to more than the US aid to Pakistan today. If the US balks at it, Pakistan could simply cut off US supply routes as it did back in 2011 after the Salala incident.
Here's a discussion related to this subject:
Related Links:
Haq's Musings
What is the Haqqani Network?
Why is India Sponsoring Terror in Pakistan?
Mullah Mansoor Akhtar Killing in US Drone Strike
Gen Petraeus Debunks Charges of Pakistani Duplicity
Husain Haqqani vs Riaz Haq on India vs Pakistan
Impact of Trump's Top Picks on Pakistan
Husain Haqqani Advising Trump on Pakistan Policy?
Gall-Haqqani-Paul Narrative on Pakistan
Pakistan-China-Russia vs India-US-Japan
Robert Gates' Straight Talk on Pakistan
http://www.riazhaq.com/2018/01/trumps-godfather-doctrine-new-years.html
that too direct in public.
.
