Delhi & Tokyo may ink pact for India’s first Bullet Train during Shinzo Abe’s visit

[Rangila]

@Jai Bharat

So BJP wins Uttarakhand, Karnataka, HP, Assam, and all NE states.

BJP never had any (significant) presence in NE.
Hence above is a tall statement.

NE = Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura = 24 LOk Sabha seats.

First come first:

1) Arunachal Pradesh, wherein BJP has just 11 of the 60 seats.

You think they are going to make a miracle here?

Respond rationally.

 

[Jai Bharat]

@Jai Bharat

So BJP wins Uttarakhand, Karnataka, HP, Assam, and all NE states.

BJP never had any presence in NE.
Hence above is a tall statement.

NE = Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura = 24 LOk Sabha seats.

First come first:

1) Arunachal Pradesh, wherein BJP has just 11 of the 60 seats.

You think they are going to make a miracle here?

Respond rationally.

BJP had 31% of vote-share last election, and Kiren Rijiju will be pulled back in order to contest as CM. If Assam can be taken, then the other states will lean towards BJP, as they will be seen as 'having a presence'. Winning mindshare is key to victory.

Assam is the key to the entire region, and things are really not looking good for Congress right now. Tarun Gogoi has served far too long, and there is already a lot of infighting within the party. Anti-incumbency is high because of slow development, stalled projects, and illegal Bangladeshi immigration. Congress won't do anything to alleviate their worries as they fear of losing the Muslim sympathy vote in other states.

 

[dadeechi]

So BJP wins Uttarakhand, Karnataka, HP, Assam, and all NE states.

Maintains status quo in West Bengal where they currently have NO presence to being with, but maybe some minor seat gain.

Punjab will be a tough fight. That is okay. 60 years Congress rule, but they didn't win every state all the time, nor did they always have easy elections.

UP is a toss-up, but even if 'Grand Alliance' formed, it will be with Congress in the background only providing media support, and BJP with a good chance to increase seat share where it currently has none, which would still be a boost to their RS seats.



So BJP wins Uttarakhand, Karnataka, HP, Assam, and all NE states. These are states run by Congress, and so Loss of Congress = gain of BJP, because they are the only other major players in those regions.

Problem with 3rd and 4th front is that they rely on different parties voting together for a coalition in LS. Regional parties got throttled in 2014 LS, and I don't see why that would change.

People vote in LS for future PM, so local political leaders can't properly leverage their popularity as they won't be ruling and their constituents won't be benefiting from their promises. We say this in 2014 in UP and Bihar, 'grand alliances' only work on the local levels.

BJP was lucky to have won in 2014. Repeat or bettering of this result is next to impossible. Look at the major states and see which of these could BJP win if congress losses.

UP - SP & BSP
WB - TMC & Left
Bihar - JDU & RJD
TN - AIDMK & DMK
AP - TDP
Telangana - TRS
Odisha - BJD
Kerala - Left
Karnataka - JDS

States - MPs, MPLAs and MLCs

 

[Rangila]

BJP had 31% of vote-share last election, and Kiren Rijiju will be pulled back in order to contest as CM. If Assam can be taken, then the other states will lean towards BJP, as they will be seen as 'having a presence'. Winning mindshare is key to victory.

Assam is the key to the entire region, and things are really not looking good for Congress right now. Tarun Gogoi has served far too long, and there is already a lot of infighting within the party. Anti-incumbency is high because of slow development, stalled projects, and illegal Bangladeshi immigration. Congress won't do anything to alleviate their worries as they fear of losing the Muslim sympathy vote in other states.

Please revisit my post again.
I will come to all the NE states.
Lets go one by one.

Reply to my specific question on AP first.
Then one by one, Assam included, we shall come.

Reply my post on AP first please.
Can the BJP make miracle there, if yes, then how?

 

[Jai Bharat]

Reply my post on AP first please.
Can the BJP make miracle there, if yes, then how?

Since you repeated the question, I will just repeat my answer, and 31% of vote-share is NOT a small number, they have prescence in AP already:

BJP had 31% of vote-share last election, and Kiren Rijiju will be pulled back in order to contest as CM. If Assam can be taken, then the other states will lean towards BJP, as they will be seen as 'having a presence'. Winning mindshare is key to victory.

Assam is the key to the entire region, and things are really not looking good for Congress right now. Tarun Gogoi has served far too long, and there is already a lot of infighting within the party. Anti-incumbency is high because of slow development, stalled projects, and illegal Bangladeshi immigration. Congress won't do anything to alleviate their worries as they fear of losing the Muslim sympathy vote in other states.

BJP was lucky to have won in 2014. Repeat or bettering of this result is next to impossible. Look at the major states and see which of these could BJP win if congress losses.

UP - SP & BSP
WB - TMC & Left
Bihar - JDU & RJD
TN - AIDMK & DMK
AP - TDP
Telangana - TRS
Odisha - BJD
Kerala - Left
Karnataka - JDS

As I said before, I am talking about State Assembly elections and ONLY predicting Karnataka, HP, Uttarakhand, and NE states to be won by BJP in majority.

I don't expect BJP to win any of the states you mentioned except Karnataka. I have said it before many times, when BJP faces up against a local strong-arm party results can get very difficult for them. Hell CONgres in its full might has had trouble winning against local parties, Rajiv got annihilated by the Comunists of WB despite Congress being the strongest under him since the first government. BUT, against a Congress with no major regional parties against them BJP will emerge victorious. Hence my predictions.

For all the 'Other' controlled states and Kerala, I just want to see BJP contest a few seats and start making inroads, it will be a decade before they can challenge regional parties for a majority I think. I would love to be proven wrong however. Ill donate 100% of my next pay-check to BJP if they get a majority in UP State Assembly elections.

 

[dadeechi]

Since you repeated the question, I will just repeat my answer, and 31% of vote-share is NOT a small number, they have prescence in AP already:








As I said before, I am talking about State Assembly elections and ONLY predicting Karnataka, HP, Uttarakhand, and NE states to be won by BJP in majority.

I don't expect BJP to win any of the states you mentioned except Karnataka. I have said it before many times, when BJP faces up against a local strong-arm party results can get very difficult for them. Hell CONgres in its full might has had trouble winning against local parties, Rajiv got annihilated by the Comunists of WB despite Congress being the strongest under him since the first government. BUT, against a Congress with no major regional parties against them BJP will emerge victorious. Hence my predictions.

For all the 'Other' controlled states and Kerala, I just want to see BJP contest a few seats and start making inroads, it will be a decade before they can challenge regional parties for a majority I think. I would love to be proven wrong however. Ill donate 100% of my next pay-check to BJP if they get a majority in UP State Assembly elections.

BJP could win Karnataka only if it is a three way fight else it would be a tough call in spite of anti incumbency.

 

[Rangila]

@Jai Bharat

Since you repeated the question, I will just repeat my answer, and 31% of vote-share is NOT a small number, they have prescence in AP already:

I had to repeat my question, because you did not reply the specific. Its normal.
So the fault is within your tricky attitude to not respond the question appropriately & willfully.

That only proves here that you have no proper answer or you deliberately digressed & skipped the issue. That also despite me telling you that we shall take NE states one by one to be fair.

All right man.
I request you to not tag me hereafter or address me in the future.
Have a good day or whatever is left of it.

 

[Jai Bharat]

@Jai Bharat

Since you repeated the question, I will just repeat my answer, and 31% of vote-share is NOT a small number, they have prescence in AP already:

I had to repeat my question, because you did not reply the specific. Its normal.
So the fault is within your tricky attitude to not respond the question appropriately & willfully.

That only proves here that you have no proper answer or you deliberately digressed & skipped the issue. That also despite me telling you that we shall take NE states one by one to be fair.

All right man.
I request you to not tag me hereafter or address me in the future.
Have a good day or whatever is left of it.

Ill give you the benefit of the doubt, maybe I was being unclear:

BJP had 31% of vote-share last election, and Kiren Rijiju will be pulled back in order to contest as CM. If Assam can be taken, then the other states will lean towards BJP, as they will be seen as 'having a presence'. Winning mindshare is key to victory.

Assam is the key to the entire region, and things are really not looking good for Congress right now. Tarun Gogoi has served far too long, and there is already a lot of infighting within the party. Anti-incumbency is high because of slow development, stalled projects, and illegal Bangladeshi immigration. Congress won't do anything to alleviate their worries as they fear of losing the Muslim sympathy vote in other states.

I will break it down again, as you didn't seem to understand it the first time.

31% vote share was in AP during the last State Assembly Election, this only gave them 11/60 seats, but BJP already has presence in AP.

Kirin Rijiju is from AP, and he will be pulled from Centre to contest CM in AP.

Mind-share will increase in AP (along with all other NE states) after Assam goes to BJP due to reasons listed. 31% will swing closer to 50% as BJP will be seen as having mindshare and power in the general region if they can win the largest state, Assam.


Everything in my post was proper response to your question about 'BJP could pull a miracle in AP'. I have no idea what you are talking about now.

1) Arunachal Pradesh, wherein BJP has just 11 of the 60 seats.

You think they are going to make a miracle here?

Respond rationally.

BJP could win Karnataka only if it is a three way fight else it would be a tough call in spite of anti incumbency.

We will see, I am not going to pretend that I am an unbiased observer. Congress will definitely lose more than a few seats however.

Siddaramaiah is an idiot, he still thinks he is running for office. He has been reduced to name-calling and political posturing to pander to vote-banks. Nobody knows what he is doing, people want to see growth and development not wasting tax money for birthday parties to long-dead men of questionable character, even Congress members are starting to get mad at him.

 

[egodoc222]

@dadeechi @Rangila @Jai Bharat with all due respect...gtfo this thread!!! Look at the thread title and what you are discussing!!! Take your discussion some where else...It would be nice if you delete your off topic posts!! Thanks!

 

[Kaniska]

CMs do that. Not PMs.
PM = whole nation.
He has to carry many states to be selected again.
Gujarat alone wont cut the mustard.
He is only helping Gujarat with his heart, being a native of Gujarat.
Having a soft corner for one state and keeping other state on back burner is uncivilized.

View attachment 278386

In fact he is losing voters confidence (lately) everywhere, his state included.
So when the development issue is concerned for a PM of the nation, he has to see that piece of such
development is extended to every state, not only his own.
This is selfish from any PM of India to say the least.

I can get your intent by reading your post...Trust me...India should be fortunate to get a PM like Modi...I am not sure many people wont realise it now..I feel, unless and otherwise, some one better choice is not available, then after Indira Gandhi, Modi is one of my best and favorite PM which i ever imagined...Haters will always find execuse to hate..One can not help them...It is a matter of ones ability to see positive things rather than things which are unwanted and -ve...

 

[Rangila]

I can get your intent by reading your post...Trust me...India should be fortunate to get a PM like Modi...I am not sure many people wont realise it now..I feel, unless and otherwise, some one better choice is not available, then after Indira Gandhi, Modi is one of my best and favorite PM which i ever imagined...Haters will always find execuse to hate..One can not help them...It is a matter of ones ability to see positive things rather than things which are unwanted and -ve...

He received a mandate from Indian people so he will complete his term.
No ifs or buts & no discussion on that.
However, What is wrong to criticize the Indian PM if he does some wrong?
Are you saying he is flawless? No.
Criticism is not called hate. You may come up with better terminology against this.

There are several issues with him that need to be addressed and relevant questions asked.
After all he is the man who can make or break India as the PM.

One pertinent example of his morality:

Lets leave Rich/Crorepatis here.
Lets talk about "Criminally accused" people as his ministers that he selected.

Modi had an option to select unblemished ministers.
But instead, he did the opposite.
A moral example set by none other than the PM of India for younger generation to follow?

Like this, there are several other issues.
So people WILL speak. Its democracy.
Hate? I do not see any, smell any.

Honest people do not behave this way. Neither they shout from the rooftop: "Na khata hun na khane deta" types.

 

[Kaniska]

He received a mandate from Indian people so he will complete his term.
No ifs or buts & no discussion on that.
However, What is wrong to criticize the Indian PM if he does some wrong?
Are you saying he is flawless? No.
Criticism is not called hate. You may come up with better terminology against this.

There are several issues with him that need to be addressed and relevant questions asked.
After all he is the man who can make or break India as the PM.

One pertinent example of his morality:

View attachment 278439


Lets leave Rich/Crorepatis here.
Lets talk about "Criminally accused" people as his ministers that he selected.

Modi had an option to select unblemished ministers.
But instead, he did the opposite.
A moral example set by none other than the PM of India for younger generation to follow?

Like this, there are several other issues.
So people WILL speak. Its democracy.
Hate? I do not see any, smell any.

Honest people do not behave this way. Neither they shout from the rooftop: "Na khata hun na khane deta" types.

I think you are right..He is not flawless either....And he is not flawless because, he is human...And every one has right to criticize their leaders.I am with you...But my point is for those people who hate him...And there is difference between criticize and hate.That is what i was referring to..

Healthy criticism..is a backbone of democracy...Even i agree with you that criminals are in his ministry...That is why I have very high hope on Arvind Kejriwal...He is a good and clean man....But unfortunately...He is slowly turning into another politician....