Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions

[sancho]

God is gr8888 my *** this is what we r all wting for, mr chutiya antony is the most disgusted DM ever
Major Indian procurements delayed until after general election, say officials - IHS Jane's 360
Halloweene
can u plz comfirm it

That has nothing to do with MoD, but with the election and I said it since the issues with Reliance came up, that Dassault is playing a dangerous game by delaying the decisions towards the elections.

 

[sancho]

There are some views in political circle that if a change in guard happens in New Delhi the deal may nt go thru citing too many stringent conditions and cost (not what media has reported). The so called some back up plan envisions more indigenous (read LCA variants) and direct off the shelf purchase to bolster up squadron reduction strength seen with retirement of Mig 21 and Mig 27 and stalling of up-gradation of Jaguars...

I believe Dassault/French Government and MOD/HAL should seal up the deal asap.. Both sides needs the deal.. The more the delay is, there can be shocker for all in store with deal cancellation to many other surprises..

For the current government and election ahead it's difficult to make such a big procurement of course, the BJP on the other hand might take a new look on the election and I'm sure there will be a reasonable ammount of pressure from the EF consortium as well as the Russians on them too.
The AAP even as a minor partner in a coalition would surely push for low cost fighters.
So the whole deal can be turned upside down again if there is no decision now.

Russia and UK are offering some new deal talks.. Russia it seems had offered a packaged deal of Super Sukhois, Su35 and later FGFA with TOT which can be fitted to the MKIs and Su35 later. Its still lying in cold storage as no where in media it has been reported. The surprise os SU35 at very low cost of offering to offset high cost of FGFA had MOD surprised...

There is nothing a Su 35 can offer IAF, that they wouldn't get through MKI upgrades anyway, so that is not interesting and the low cost is a myth too.
The brits however are desperate and as I said, they will do anything to pressure the BJP if they win.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

thats exactly my concern too.. u see some where we are clear is that we wont put all the eggs in the same basket.. But then if not france then UK ...thats the small feeling which is beginning to crop up... BTW what David C led UK had in favor is that internally some UK people with influential abilities had been close to BJP folks like Narendra Modi and other leaders.. another thot process states that getting Modi close to UK leaders may help finally USA also to relent and issue him Visa which would be potrayed as big moral victory for BJP,,, Thus BJP and UK have many things which works for them...

Now the question is at present where the deal is stuck or whats really the point of hiccup.. if @halloweene can check and let us know it would be really great. BTW if say Dassault does nt get this deal, whats their plan of action? any views on that

 

[sancho]

thats exactly my concern too.. u see some where we are clear is that we wont put all the eggs in the same basket.. But then if not france then UK ...thats the small feeling which is beginning to crop up... BTW what David C led UK had in favor is that internally some UK people with influential abilities had been close to BJP folks like Narendra Modi and other leaders.. another thot process states that getting Modi close to UK leaders may help finally USA also to relent and issue him Visa which would be potrayed as big moral victory for BJP,,, Thus BJP and UK have many things which works for them...

The Indo - US relations might be in trouble with Modi, so a come back of their fighters is unlikely, but the EF consortium includes big companies and desperate governments, so there will be a push from their side for sure (the currently increasing BS in the media could be one sign for it), although I don't know much about the preference of BJP to the European countries.

Now the question is at present where the deal is stuck or whats really the point of hiccup.. if @halloweene can check and let us know it would be really great. BTW if say Dassault does nt get this deal, whats their plan of action? any views on that

From the French side, the workshare that Reliance gets is too small and they want more diverted from HAL.
From the Indian side, Dassault still needs to find Indian industry partners to fulfill the offset and ToT requirements and after that clearence from finance ministry I guess. Besides the fact that growth has reduced in the recent years, while the Rupee has gone down.
If they don't get this deal, they will keep focusing on the Arab countries, which basically is the last hope for Rafale sales. The longer they take, they lower the chances for exports, since the future market will be split by 5th gen fighters and the cost-effective 4.5th gen Gripen E/F. Rafale can't compete with stealth fighters in operational terms, just as it can't compete the Gripen for cost reasons. So either India and the Gulf, or French forces only as major markets, Malaysia might still be a potential minor customer, but they will take a close look at Indias decision for sure.

 

[halloweene]

(the currently increasing BS in the media could be one sign for it)

It is, but i cant source.

 

[Sergi]

@sancho :
Few points
- if a BJP govt came then there will definatly be a question on deal if Dassault keep its stand. Presence of Relience and Dassaults persuation on that will make things difficult.
- what new govt will see is the worth of deal and the requriements of our PSUs and not the forces.
- if the TOT offered is expensive or insufficient the will be a Plan B.
- Modi being result oriented person ( my opinion ) will make a quick fix and go for longer plan.
- Plan B might involve
1. buying F-18SH with full ToT if Uncle Sam can provide. - its has two point score fixing his image in US lobby , making US arm lobby pro indian and fully Navalised bird.
2. Looking at Modi's relation with UK if UK offere any better low cost solution with TOT then they will be in game. But is difficult unless UK agree to devlaue its product to keep it alive.
3. Buying more MKIs offself ie Super MKIs and speed up LCA M-2 & AMCA. Worst case senario

 

[SrNair]

Scraping the deal with french will cause catastrophic diplomatic fallout.Remember France is the only european country that support us in our difficult times.

 

[sancho]

@sancho :
Few points
- if a BJP govt came then there will definatly be a question on deal if Dassault keep its stand. Presence of Relience and Dassaults persuation on that will make things difficult.

Is it? Can you, or any other member tell me if there are any links between BJP/Modi and Reliance/Ambani? Dassault is obviously the decision maker here, but I think that behind the scenes the whole HAL issue is mainly guided from India itself and by Reliance. If that is the case, they surely will take the chance of a government change to put more pressure on the new government directly too.

- what new govt will see is the worth of deal and the requriements of our PSUs and not the forces.

I would be reliefed if that is the case, but if they simply pass this deal, they hardly can make it their own and the Congress / Antony will remain with most of the credit, not to mention that the cost of the deal will create an issue in the public and the media anyway (it did even before the final selection), so whoever is fixing the deal, will have to justify it too. "We" might see the benefits of the industry, or the IAF and I am very sure the current government did as well, since they routed this competition and the policy changes in that direction, but a new government can have different views and change all this in a blink of an eye. So I don't give anything about promises or statments of BJP, or AAP at this point, because after the election things are always different.

- Plan B might involve
1. buying F-18SH with full ToT if Uncle Sam can provide

Not possible, that's part of the reasons they were rejected, or why several other deals didn't worked out so far. And if the Congress which had good relations to the US officials, couldn't change that, Modi and BJP won't have a chance at all.

2. Looking at Modi's relation with UK if UK offere any better low cost solution with TOT then they will be in game. But is difficult unless UK agree to devlaue its product to keep it alive.

They can't make the EF cheaper that's for sure, they only can provide other industrial advantages and most importantly more political power in the negotiations, unlike the Germans which lead the MMRCA proposal (a major mistake for the EF anyway). So again, politics can then play a bigger role in the decision, contrary to what we have seen so far, thanks to IAF and Antony.

3. Buying more MKIs offself ie Super MKIs and speed up LCA M-2 & AMCA. Worst case senario

That's only a solution to keep the numbers on paper, not a good one on operational terms and doesn't give Indian industry anything.

 

[Sergi]

Is it? Can you, or any other member tell me if there are any links between BJP/Modi and Reliance/Ambani? Dassault is obviously the decision maker here, but I think that behind the scenes the whole HAL issue is mainly guided from India itself and by Reliance. If that is the case, they surely will take the chance of a government change to put more pressure on the new government directly too.

Nobody can connect the dots but elder Ambani ie Mukesh whos Relience Industries is a pro congress industrialist. So HAL's objections will be listened more eagerly if the GOI is changed. And even HAL knows it

I would be reliefed if that is the case, but if they simply pass this deal, they hardly can make it their own and the Congress / Antony will remain with most of the credit, not to mention that the cost of the deal will create an issue in the public and the media anyway (it did even before the final selection), so whoever is fixing the deal, will have to justify it too. "We" might see the benefits of the industry, or the IAF and I am very sure the current government did as well, since they routed this competition and the policy changes in that direction, but a new government can have different views and change all this in a blink of an eye. So I don't give anything about promises or statments of BJP, or AAP at this point, because after the election things are always different.

If you ask me it is very unlikely to close the deal in 1 month. There are many pending issues which will take minimus month to settle and another month to document that. So they are done. Negotiations and documentaions can be done in code of counduct but the decision will have to wait for next DM.

Not possible, that's part of the reasons they were rejected, or why several other deals didn't worked out so far. And if the Congress which had good relations to the US officials, couldn't change that, Modi and BJP won't have a chance at all.

I am sorry i dont agree with you. Congress leadership is considered as moderate leaders. So US like them as they wont swing the balance. In case of Modi who is already not in good terms with US has a good chance to swing everything away from US. So they need to be extra good to keep relations or ready to say good bye to india.
More over F-18 prodction line is closing anyways. So getting 20 billion for 4.5+ gen aircraft while you are having 5th gen ac AND the said 4.5+ gen ac is more likely to be used to check China .... Doesnt sound bad even from US point of view. They can remove radar and avionic which India will replace anyway. So question is only engine.

They can't make the EF cheaper that's for sure, they only can provide other industrial advantages and most importantly more political power in the negotiations, unlike the Germans which lead the MMRCA proposal (a major mistake for the EF anyway). So again, politics can then play a bigger role in the decision, contrary to what we have seen so far, thanks to IAF and Antony.

You might be suprised on the cost i dont think india can use that political power for anything. I preffere French good-wil over UK any day.

That's only a solution to keep the numbers on paper, not a good one on operational terms and doesn't give Indian industry anything.

What our industrial need right now ???
- relible engine and a know how
- Good AESA and its know how
- some design philosophy and experience
Exactly thats why Dassault was a goid choice. Say for some reasons the deal is scarpped what are our options ???
Either Russia or US.
US might give us GE engine with full TOT and we can work with Israel on radar.

 

[sancho]

Nobody can connect the dots but elder Ambani ie Mukesh whos Relience Industries is a pro congress industrialist. So HAL's objections will be listened more eagerly if the GOI is changed. And even HAL knows it

HAL is actually pretty quiet, it's MoD and IAF that insisted on the RFP requirements and oppose changes and that for good reasons. So if Ambani is pro Congress, that didn't got him much in case of MMRCA, which again would prove that politics had no issue in the competition so far.

So they need to be extra good to keep relations or ready to say good bye to india.

You are overestimating the situation, because they would have to act against their own laws on ToT and if that wasn't possible to an Indian counterpart they had set up a reasonable trustworthy relationship, they definitely won't go over board with the BJP. In fact, it is likely that they will have to start up all over again, which actually is sad, the long term prospect of Indo-US relations with H. Clinton likely to become the next President looked pretty good and it needs to be seen how that might work out with BJP and Modi.

You might be suprised on the cost

Nope, I am following the EF development even longer that I did with Rafale and the costs were always an issue and IMO it gets only worse now. UK won't support it that much anymore, like they did in the past, they get F35 and already made a deal with France for the NG fighter development. They won't bother too much about Germany, Italy, or Spain and further fundigs for EF anymore. The only point for them is, to sell off some of the EFs they originally ordered, but even those can't be sold too far below the normal price, especially since we mainly will have a licence production. So don't expect wonders from that side anymore.

What our industrial need right now ???

Even basics, like modern production standards, but radar, engine, avionics or weapon techs are of course the keys. Wrt ToT France always is one of the best choices, that's why we have chosen them often for licence productions or JVs, so on that side the Rafale was sure to be one of the best offers and there are not many alternatives left, especially not from a single source. Israel can offer radar, avionics and weapon techs, which we already get, just like we already get most of what the Russians can offer, the French are the best western source.

 

[Sergi]

HAL is actually pretty quiet, it's MoD and IAF that insisted on the RFP requirements and oppose changes and that for good reasons. So if Ambani is pro Congress, that didn't got him much in case of MMRCA, which again would prove that politics had no issue in the competition so far.

HAL is not quiet. They are using correct channels unlike DRDO.
Politics has no issue so far is correct. But you cant say that after elections.
Reliance already got the piece of pie. Question is can they hold it.

You are overestimating the situation, because they would have to act against their own laws on ToT and if that wasn't possible to an Indian counterpart they had set up a reasonable trustworthy relationship, they definitely won't go over board with the BJP. In fact, it is likely that they will have to start up all over again, which actually is sad, the long term prospect of Indo-US relations with H. Clinton likely to become the next President looked pretty good and it needs to be seen how that might work out with BJP and Modi.

Pentagon has already made a list of techs that can be transferred to India. For every law there is back door eg a JV.
BJP coming in power is actually bad news for US as their PM is one who doesn't like the US so much. So question is what they can do ??? Keep india at distance ??? Can Modi be pursued ??? Yes they can. But to pursue a businessman you need to give him the offers he can not reject.
PS: these are my own opinions derived from some good source

Nope, I am following the EF development even longer that I did with Rafale and the costs were always an issue and IMO it gets only worse now. UK won't support it that much anymore, like they did in the past, they get F35 and already made a deal with France for the NG fighter development. They won't bother too much about Germany, Italy, or Spain and further fundigs for EF anymore. The only point for them is, to sell off some of the EFs they originally ordered, but even those can't be sold too far below the normal price, especially since we mainly will have a licence production. So don't expect wonders from that side anymore.

i am saying that because someone told me so. That was the exact reply "you might be surprised" and I don't think the person trolled me.

Even basics, like modern production standards, but radar, engine, avionics or weapon techs are of course the keys. Wrt ToT France always is one of the best choices, that's why we have chosen them often for licence productions or JVs, so on that side the Rafale was sure to be one of the best offers and there are not many alternatives left, especially not from a single source. Israel can offer radar, avionics and weapon techs, which we already get, just like we already get most of what the Russians can offer, the French are the best western source.

Not disagreeing on that. Just imagining backup plan is case of scrapping.

 

[sancho]

Reliance already got the piece of pie. Question is can they hold it.

Of course, because the RFP gives Dassault and it's French partners the freedom to chose the Indian counterparts for parts of the production as they want and Reliance was chosen by Dassault, so that can't be changed for sure.

Pentagon has already made a list of techs that can be transferred to India.

Yes, but according to their laws and to what they want to share, not what we want to have and that is the key! We wanted ToT of the radar for example, which is not possible with them, they even blocked the sale of the Israeli AESA because of the same reason. So they might change their policies today a bit, but according to their interests, not to ours.

Not disagreeing on that. Just imagining backup plan is case of scrapping.

I don't think it will be scrapped, but I don't want to new negotiations with EF partners, or even some of the rejected vendors again and delay the procurement even longer. I want a decision and the induction of the fighters as soon as possible, that's all.

 

[Sergi]

@sancho
1. Yes Relience got its share though Dassault and will keep it if everything goes as plan. But its in MODs hand to allow or reject the partners. Same thing happened in arty remember ??? And we are talking about after election

2. Yes. 100%. But right now their interest are matching ours and vice versa. I believe if US give us rights to produce F-18s and TOT of its engines. We might agree. Radar and avionics can be arranged from other sources.

3. I too dont think it will be scrapped but .....You never know and Dassault isnt really showing any need to wrap up early.

 

[Water Car Engineer]

 

[halloweene]

Had a brief talk with a top Dassault executive today, will try to sum up fomorrow, late at night here.