Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Ali Zadi]

Restarting the F22 with USA alone would be too expensive but with an export version its viable. It has been said before also that a F22 > F35 in stealth among other things not to mention using the same engine as the F35 the F22 would make for a very potent fast aircraft.

The real sticky is the price I don't expect the F22 E to cost less than PAK FA simply put its american tech and they are always expensive compared to russian. The other thing is the reduced specs of the F22 E, if they are reduced specs overall compared to the original F22 and not a modernized F22 its again not worth it. The F35 is said to have a RCS of a metal golf ball where as in F22's case its a metal marble, the F22 E might have a larger RCS around that of a F35/PAK FA and it will surely be more expensive than a F35 "Two Engines, etc, etc"

 

[PARIKRAMA]

F22E some points

• Congress recently tasked the Air Force to study the cost and feasibility of restarting the F-22 Raptor production line.
  
• Early in the Obama administration, then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates succeeded in his effort to kill the F-22 program.
• The assembly line was shut down after the last Raptor was delivered in 2012.
• “We don’t have enough F-22s,” said Gen. Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, commander of Air Combat Command, at a conference last year. “That’s a fact of life. We didn’t buy enough.”
• Even if Congress lifted the export ban, which was put in place due to concerns that the sophisticated technology on the F-22 could fall into the wrong hands, not many countries would be lining up to buy it
• Japan, Israel and Australia are the only allies that have expressed interest in the fighter and would be in a position to purchase and operate it effectively. The latest names added is India in the same list.
• From a financial, industrial and political perspective, there are a number of hurdles to reopening the F-22 line and building additional planes. One is the price tag. Such an effort would cost about $40 billion including the costs of getting the production pieces back into place and modernizing outdated component
• Upgrading F22 to new specs would cost $5 Bn approx included in that $40 Bn cost
• Order size estimated is
  • F22 USA - 200 (194)
  • F22E -
    
    • Japan - 100
    • Israel - 50
    • Australia - 45
    • India -75
    • NATO allies - 100
  • Total orders - 570 with Export downgraded version at 370

Decision may be taken when new US counter air operations strategy for next 2 decades is discussed next financial year. Post which formal notification for budgetary approval will be in front of Congress. LM is hoping to showcase firm commitments from allies by then to get approval and funding for restarting the line.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

F22E some points

• Congress recently tasked the Air Force to study the cost and feasibility of restarting the F-22 Raptor production line.
  
• Early in the Obama administration, then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates succeeded in his effort to kill the F-22 program.
• The assembly line was shut down after the last Raptor was delivered in 2012.
• “We don’t have enough F-22s,” said Gen. Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, commander of Air Combat Command, at a conference last year. “That’s a fact of life. We didn’t buy enough.”
• Even if Congress lifted the export ban, which was put in place due to concerns that the sophisticated technology on the F-22 could fall into the wrong hands, not many countries would be lining up to buy it
• Japan, Israel and Australia are the only allies that have expressed interest in the fighter and would be in a position to purchase and operate it effectively. The latest names added is India in the same list.
• From a financial, industrial and political perspective, there are a number of hurdles to reopening the F-22 line and building additional planes. One is the price tag. Such an effort would cost about $40 billion including the costs of getting the production pieces back into place and modernizing outdated component
• Upgrading F22 to new specs would cost $5 Bn approx included in that $40 Bn cost
• Order size estimated is
  • F22 USA - 200 (194)
  • F22E -
    • Japan - 100
    • Israel - 50
    • Australia - 45
    • India -75
    • NATO allies - 100
  • Total orders - 570 with Export downgraded version at 370

Decision may be taken when new US counter air operations strategy for next 2 decades is discussed next financial year. Post which formal notification for budgetary approval will be in front of Congress. LM is hoping to showcase firm commitments from allies by then to get approval and funding for restarting the line.

So my question is why should we go for F 16 ; just WAIT for F22 E

Japan has already applied for F 22

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...the-fighter-jet-japan-desperately-wants-16913

 

[PARIKRAMA]

So my question is why should we go for F 16 ; just WAIT for F22 E

Japan has already applied for F 22

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/th...the-fighter-jet-japan-desperately-wants-16913

That point will come eventually. But before that LM would like to push us F16 so that they can offload the line and associated costs to us and ensure F16 are churned out for another decade.

Thats why it is necessary to see what is really coming .. F16 Blk72 with F35 and F22E is a much bigger deal but F22E will kill PAKFA stage 1 direct procurement as well as delay AMCA program as too many 5th gen projects will be there and multiple 5G platforms.

Let them formally give the proposal in writing with numbers and assurance of codes to ensure there is no electronic kill switches nor any limitation of not able to use for N roles.

A good question to wonder would be F22E downspec - how it will fare up against
1. rafale
2. rafale NG
3. Super Sukhoi Su 30 mki
4. Pakfa stage 1

In simple words its imperative to understand that unless it brings additional capability without any stick+hindrances, there is absolutely no use for us to go after this carrot..

 

[randomradio]

Restarting the F22 with USA alone would be too expensive but with an export version its viable. It has been said before also that a F22 > F35 in stealth among other things not to mention using the same engine as the F35 the F22 would make for a very potent fast aircraft.

The real sticky is the price I don't expect the F22 E to cost less than PAK FA simply put its american tech and they are always expensive compared to russian. The other thing is the reduced specs of the F22 E, if they are reduced specs overall compared to the original F22 and not a modernized F22 its again not worth it. The F35 is said to have a RCS of a metal golf ball where as in F22's case its a metal marble, the F22 E might have a larger RCS around that of a F35/PAK FA and it will surely be more expensive than a F35 "Two Engines, etc, etc"

The F-35 has a smaller RCS than the F-22.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Here is a good read from IDRW
http://idrw.org/defense-minister-pulled-off-coup-rafale-offset-contract/

Has Defense Minister pulled off a coup in Rafale Offset Contract?
Published July 13, 2016 SOURCE: Sairama V/ FOR MY TAKE / IDRW.ORG

There has been reports of France offer to restart Kaveri Engine for Tejas 1A along with stealth, AESA radar and missile technology. If the reports are true. Then Defense Minister seem to have pulled off a coup in the Rafale offset deal to bring about a quantum leap in Technological advancements. Rafale aircraft though costliest among its peers, the offset clause providing investments and technology will save billions of dollars for India. Though India has been developing technologies slowly through DRDO, but these offers will speed up the development timeline and reduce the imports considerably.

Restarting the Kaveri Engine, will be a biggest boon for LCA Tejas. Safran has considerable experience in building jet engines (M88 for Rafale, M53 for Mirage and LEAP with GE) for more than 5 decades Rafale offset investment should produce two engine with 95KN for Tejas 1A and 110-120KN thrust for AMCA. 95KN thrust engine will negate the need for Tejas Mk2 and will be suitable for carrier operation. Any development of Tejas Mk2 should have the same engine as AMCA with thrust vectoring nozzle.

The cost of GE F414 engine was $4.44 million in 2013 and $5.36 million in 2016. The price quoted by GE for 99 F414 engines was $822 million in 2010. The contract stipulates initial batch supplied directly and remaining produced in India with ToT.

Tejas 1A/Mk2 is expected to replace 300 Migs of IAF along with 50 Tejas for Navy. Fighters require 3.5 engines throughout the life time without considering the extended lifespan. Overall Tejas need 1225 engines. In the case of twin engine AMCA, 200nos will correspond to 1300 engines. The numbers will go up if both IAF and Indian Navy choose 5th Gen AMCA than Tejas with longer combat radius and larger payload. All these doesn’t include the export potential of Tejas along with the Kaveri engines for UAVs.

With 2500 engine requirement, if Kaveri engine is priced atleast $2 million lesser than GE, India will save over $5 billion without considering the French investment. The inflation, foreign exchange volatility and other technological Investments (AESA radar, Missile Technology) will take the savings above the procurement cost of 36 Rafales. The technological leap and the jobs generated/ material sourced in India will push the worth of Kaveri development.

But India should be careful, since France have dragged the MRCA deal leading to its cancellation. The huge price escalation led to order reduced from 126 to 36 aircrafts without any ToT. France has promised to abide by MRCA tender but it has used every chance to divert the contract to its interest. This offset contract should not be used again by France to secure the Rafale deal but India should make France abide by the clauses of the contract without any loop holes through sovereign guarantee. The offset contract should stipulate the finished product with specific standards instead of the value of investment in developing the product.

++
This article is more or less the views and sentiments which has been in detailed explained by VSTOL in another forum. he defined the same in great details

Here is his original post:

pls read the conditions associated with 100% FDI. This is allowed only for select technologies which India needs and not for every Item. I do not want to post here what I sent to top boss but just the Kaveri and HTFE-25 upgrade will make 36 Rafales free for India if we add the benefits of the money saved due to upgrade of Kaveri and HTFE-25. The savings on most conservative estimate are going to be over US$11B over 25 years. The correct amount is over US$17B. Now tell me what is better?
Saving US$17B over 25 years by paying US$8.5B for 36 Rafales or Saving US$8.5B by cancelling Rafale deal and get stuck with importing engines for next 25yrs worth over US$ 32B with associated blackmails and fear of sanctions?

and

I will show you calculation of the most conservative estimate. And here it is.

These two engines will help us replace 75% of engines being used on our fleet of aircraft/helicopters and help us save over US$10B over next 25 yrs. Kaveri will replace F404 in LCA Mk1A and we won’t need LCA Mk2 thereafter. Kaveri can also replace engines of Mig-29 and can be used on AMCA. HTFE-35 can be used to replace Jaguar engines, Hawk-132 engines and Predator-c drone engines. The Turboprop version can be used on all helicopters and HTT-40 being produced in India. Every aircraft needs about three engines in its life time. We will need over 600 Kaveri engines for a fleet of 200 LCAs + 500 for a fleet of 110 twin engine Mig-29/29Ks. The requirement for AMCA will be easily over 1200 engines. The HTFE-35 will have a requirement of over 250 engines for a fleet of 125 Jaguars + 600 engines for a fleet of 200 Hawk-132. The details of savings are listed below:-

Over 2300 Kaveri type engines for LCA, AMCA, Mig-29/29Ks @US$6m/engine average price for next 25 yrs.= US$13.8B
Over 800 HTFE-35 Type engines for Jaguars and Hawk-132s @US$3m/engine average price for next 25yrs= US$2.4B
Over 3000 HTSE-1700 Type engines for helicopters & HTT-40 @US$2m/engine average price for next 25yrs=US$6b

This makes it a total of US$22.2B. If we consider that Indian engines will cost 60% of the value listed above, we will save US$8.8B over next 25 yrs + US$1B for developing LCA Mk2 + we recover the money spent on Kaveri development till date amounting to US$500m. The net savings will be well over US$10B.

This means that we will end up getting 36 Rafale virtually free of cost. I have not added the earnings we may have by exporting the aircraft using these engines. The benefits in terms of having no fear of sanctions by using our own engine can’t be quantified.

 

[randomradio]

F22E some points

• Congress recently tasked the Air Force to study the cost and feasibility of restarting the F-22 Raptor production line.
  
• Early in the Obama administration, then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates succeeded in his effort to kill the F-22 program.
• The assembly line was shut down after the last Raptor was delivered in 2012.
• “We don’t have enough F-22s,” said Gen. Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, commander of Air Combat Command, at a conference last year. “That’s a fact of life. We didn’t buy enough.”
• Even if Congress lifted the export ban, which was put in place due to concerns that the sophisticated technology on the F-22 could fall into the wrong hands, not many countries would be lining up to buy it
• Japan, Israel and Australia are the only allies that have expressed interest in the fighter and would be in a position to purchase and operate it effectively. The latest names added is India in the same list.
• From a financial, industrial and political perspective, there are a number of hurdles to reopening the F-22 line and building additional planes. One is the price tag. Such an effort would cost about $40 billion including the costs of getting the production pieces back into place and modernizing outdated component
• Upgrading F22 to new specs would cost $5 Bn approx included in that $40 Bn cost
• Order size estimated is
  • F22 USA - 200 (194)
  • F22E -
    • Japan - 100
    • Israel - 50
    • Australia - 45
    • India -75
    • NATO allies - 100
  • Total orders - 570 with Export downgraded version at 370

Decision may be taken when new US counter air operations strategy for next 2 decades is discussed next financial year. Post which formal notification for budgetary approval will be in front of Congress. LM is hoping to showcase firm commitments from allies by then to get approval and funding for restarting the line.

You can add this to your post too.
http://www.reuters.com/article/india-boeing-superhornet-idUSKCN0VC0IB

Muilenburg also flagged the F-22 Raptor, a fifth-generation fighter jointly developed with Lockheed Martin Corp, as a future sales prospect for India, calling it "an area of future investment for which we are interested".

The F-22s for India has been hinted once before. But I think they are threatened by the PAK FA/FGFA, and that's why the offer.

@Deino
What do you think will be China's reaction if the F-22s are sold to India?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@randomradio - can confirm that idrw article is inspired from vstol writings.

You can add this to your post too.
http://www.reuters.com/article/india-boeing-superhornet-idUSKCN0VC0IB


The F-22s for India has been hinted once before. But I think they are threatened by the PAK FA/FGFA, and that's why the offer.

@Deino
What do you think will be China's reaction if the F-22s are sold to India?

Muilenburg also flagged the F-22 Raptor, a fifth-generation fighter jointly developed with Lockheed Martin Corp, as a future sales prospect for India, calling it "an area of future investment for which we are interested".

Yes you are correct.. he did point that out..

 

[Deino]

You can add this to your post too.
http://www.reuters.com/article/india-boeing-superhornet-idUSKCN0VC0IB


The F-22s for India has been hinted once before. But I think they are threatened by the PAK FA/FGFA, and that's why the offer.

@Deino
What do you think will be China's reaction if the F-22s are sold to India?

IMO this is as likely as a German landing on the Mars within the next two years !

Sorry, but especially in order to rise emotions against china there is currently so much BS written esp. in the Western press ... and this is a prime example.

1. The restart of the F-22's production is IMO more than unlikely and ...
2. if it will be restarted, a sale to India even more.

So I think we should even more prepare the landing celebration for that unknown German astronaut on Mars.

 

[BON PLAN]

My God!
This will be greatest catch of our times, if true.
till now US government has not allowed F 22 to be exported to any country including closest allies Israel and if we can lay hands on Raptor, it will change the military dynamics (or air power atleast) in the region forever. It would also mean an end to FGFA program and possibly AMCA number reduction.

Pratt & Whitney? or GE?

Now here is something interesting. If Lockheed is making an offer, it means they have some assurances from US administration (can't be a blatant Carrot and Stick game). A lot of path breaking policy changes seem to be in offing, if some or most of above offers are to be realized in future and with sensitive technologies (that are always accompanied by changes in national policies), i'm sure someone, who takes decision has taken into account, that national policies might not change either in India or US over a long period of time.
therefore my take away from your note @PARIKRAMA is that defence is only a sector we are looking at, but Indo US relations are now under going a sea change and we will see its implications in several other areas (foreign policy included) in next few years.

DO YOU REALLY EXPECT USA WILL GIVE YOU F22, EVEN IN EXPORT MODEL??? AND WITH TOT ....

 

[Spectre]

DO YOU REALLY EXPECT USA WILL GIVE YOU F22, EVEN IN EXPORT MODEL??? AND WITH TOT ....

I would prefer Jessica Alba instead as it is a more realistic option.

 

[BON PLAN]

F16 and SH18 on the table. India not interested.

F35 on the table. India even don't open an eye.

Now F22 on the table... Please, wait ! in some weeks USA will offer you the tech for Seawolf and Virginia SSN, plus Falcon 9 one, plus EMALS and THAAD tech....

 

[randomradio]

1. The restart of the F-22's production is IMO more than unlikely and ...

I think you will be in for a surprise.

The restarting of the line is not completely realistic for just 194 units that the USAF wants. Adding a 300+ export order is what will make the line feasible, especially if the F-22 has to compete with the PAK FA's upcoming avionics.

if it will be restarted, a sale to India even more.

India rejecting the F-22 is more likely.

But what I had asked for is an opinion on how you think China will react to F-22s in India, regardless of whether the Germans make it to Mars and beyond. Think of it as being a hypothetical question if you want. I'm looking for a pro-Chinese perspective.

 

[Spectre]

I'm really beginning to hate the this thread, too damn much wishing, too much rumors, not enough substance.

YOU ARE NOT GETTING THE F-22!!

Not in any form, export or not. The production line is closed, prohibitively expensive to reopen and buried in a f*cking desert somewhere in the Western US. And this isn't even to mention the requirement of Congressional approval, which isn't likely either, nor to mention the US likes to maintain a qualitative edge over even its allies.

I should start handing out negative ratings for this kind of garbage.

And before someone responds with something like "But we're getting the FGFA, we don't need the F-22."

I don't care. So save yourself the trouble of responding.

That is the wrong way to argue with Indians (myself included). Just quote the operating cost and see the dreams die. It is a beautiful feeling!!

but then fault lies with Americans too - You guys make a fighter jet which can outfly and outfight all the gods and their and angles together and then blame us for having fanciful dreams. tch tch!

 

[21 Dec 2012]

How many 'source based' posts are we expected to see here? This deal was already done according to Mr. 'source' back in April. Its July 13 and there's no sign of it. Even the French have stopped talking about the India sale. This thread is truly the biggest joke on the forum.

long day.. just reached home.. but straight to the PC to type good news...

• Deal is done.. final papers exchanged..
• its officially 36 flyaway
• 90 make in India tranche 1
• Final numbers would be 300 Rafales with 100+ Rafale Ms
• The original 36+18 follow on.. The follow on will be later exercised for Rafale M for Indian Navy..
• Expect deal announcement soon..
• The 18s was pitted very aggressively but a question was asked what besides the jet and cooperation on other projects, the answer was inconclusive.
• The deal papers were exchanged in the meeting of March 29,2016.
• Bankers are confirmed...
• The first 36 flyaway, last batch jets will see a small job work in Indian facilities
• Details of the deal and actual contours wont be released in public except limited information.
• LnT is getting something very very big from French side as a part of the deal..Will straight forward go to an interesting project where 2 specific products with nuclear propulsion will simultaneously get constructed for 2 very different strategic roles.
• Officially certain news will be out soon..but before that expect a flurry of anti Rafale media reports
• Big folks expected soon to sign...dates will be announced soon..