Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Conservatively, 36 are expected from Year 3 to 5.5 so add another max 2 years for additional 18. So counting from today, the outer limit is middle of 2023.

Thus the whole plan goes a bit tipsy turvy in terms of financial planning..

Interestingly @Picdelamirand-oil pls correct me if i am wrong to assume that Merignac line will run at 33 jets a year surely right from 2021 (perhaps from a year or 2 earlier) Merignac line can give a productivity in between 242-363 jets from 2021-30.. So will Dassault have a market for 242-363 jets?
Assuming FrAf another Tranche - The gap is still over 200-320 jets in that decade..

You have to take into consideration that the assembly line is viable economically from 11/year to 33/year. So you can adapt your production to your needs. If you get a lot of export you continue full production rate, but if export are deceiving you can decrease your production to the right level. Also you cannot decrease from 33 to 11 in one day but in one year.And if Dassault build a new line in India it could be different from the French, it could be a 15/45 line for exemple.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

You have to take into consideration that the assembly line is viable economically from 11/year to 33/year. So you can adapt your production to your needs. If you get a lot of export you continue full production rate, but if export are deceiving you can decrease your production to the right level. Also you cannot decrease from 33 to 11 in one day but in one year.And if Dassault build a new line in India it could be different from the French, it could be a 15/45 line for exemple.

In that scenario, what do you think would be the best case of line size in India .. Bcz i see Dassault benefiting from lower human capital cost of India versus Merignac line..and for that the line production has to be a bit longer is nt it? and use partially its production for export customers too...And still cater to Indian needs in say max 12 years.. add to it 3 years setup, i see 15 years whole project term minimum side..

The medium case also throws an interesting scenario of a squadron per year or 192 jets over 12 years and an option of 96 more either for exports or for India or for null production...Of course the variables can change and so can be the case of production line quantity or duration overall

 

[Dash]

And if Dassault build a new line in India it could be different from the French, it could be a 15/45 line for exemple.

15/45 is including French line or only India?

 

[Masterhunter]

@randomradio @Abingdonboy

See plan for IN is to have 04 carriers and four bases at A&N, laksdweep, Goa and Vizag..
The total requirement is 32+32+32 = 96 (for carriers) and 18 each for four bases = 72... Total of 168 planes by 2028. Add 54 for Vishal which will come after 2030 if its CATOBAR. Add five years more if its nuclear and EMALS. Now IN has 45 MIG 29 +46 NLCA is on order. Order of 24-32 more MIG is likely do vikrant as there is no one who can supply its airwing by 2019 except MIG29. Sso now we are left with 45 more planes to cater for Vikrant 2 and few bases.. Here IN is looking for 36-54 rafale to cater for Vikrant 2 as well as A&N.. Vikramaditya and vikrant will have 24 MIG +8NLCA or 16 each as airwing. Rest of the MIG make base defence sqn at hansa and dega. Vikrant 2 will fly rafale/NLCA combo.

The IN wants 200 fighter jets by present timelines of INS Vishal to be commissioned by 2028.. If that happens Vikrant 2 is out and the airwing requirement is 168+18= 186.. But present scenario of Vishal predicts that it won't be in service by 2028... As it will be new design and with nuclear power/EMALS it will take minimum 15 yrs from today if design is finalised in 2016 to give us timeline of 2032. That why there is possibility of vikrant 2.
As of now A&N and maritime sqn is with IAF and it will stay the same and IN will take over only after 2030 once Jags started being phased and IN will take over the mantle of A&N and maritime sqn. So timeline of 2027 does not fit in into that... It will be most likely 2030. How ever one thing is sure by IN will have following jet strength
2030 ..150-175.... 3 carriers
2035..220-250... 04 carriers (3+1)
2040..250-275..(2+2)
By 2040 IN will start looking to replace MMIG9 also

 

[Abingdonboy]

I can't get my head around the shortage of fighters. It amounts to 500 with just the MiGs and Jaguars and then there is the shortage of 8 squadrons today and God knows shortage of how many squadrons by 2030 when PLAAF go into their typical spamming fighter jet routine as well as donating jets to PAF.

It is actually quite a disgusting state by the IAF and they are still bloody haggling over the Rafales.

The GoI/MoD/IAF are all to blame for this, frankly, appaling state the IAF finds itself in. It's as if they have had their eyes closed for the past 15 years whilst the PLAAF (and even PAF) have been expanding at greater and greater speed with the IAF having stagnated. Now the situation faced is bordering on an emergency and is only going to get worse (as those MIGs in ICU are going to start being pronounced dead in the near future). I don't know what miracle these so-called "leaders" were hoping for but it simply hasn't materialised and yet they have just sat idle waiting for one to present itself.

To correct the course tough and innovative decsions need to be made today, not in 5/6/7/8/9 years time- by then it will be far too late.

@PARIKRAMA and I have been disucssing this sorry state for a while.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

15/45 is including French line or only India?

It's only India, french line needs to continue because Rafale is considered a strategic asset due to ASMP-A ==> France cannot get its Rafale from abroad.

 

[Dash]

It's only India, french line needs to continue because Rafale is considered a strategic asset due to ASMP-A ==> France cannot get its Rafale from abroad.

Then I doubt we can achieve 15 to 45 from year one, but may be in 3-4 yrs. But now you got me curious.
Do you specially configure anything in a Rafale for ASMP-A ? I am sure there will be software modifications as its a strategic weapon but I guess that would be a plug in. I dont see any structural changes to the plane as such?

EDIT: another question, couple of pages back you claimed that Rafale's operational availability is 97%. Do you have any literature available for that claim. I would be grateful to see it.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The GoI/MoD/IAF are all to blame for this, frankly, appaling state the IAF finds itself in. It's as if they have had their eyes closed for the past 15 years whilst the PLAAF (and even PAF) have been expanding at greater and greater speed with the IAF having stagnated. Now the situation faced is bordering on an emergency and is only going to get worse (as those MIGs in ICU are going to start being pronounced dead in the near future). I don't know what miracle these so-called "leaders" were hoping for but it simply hasn't materialised and yet they have just sat idle waiting for one to present itself.

To correct the course tough and innovative decsions need to be made today, not in 5/6/7/8/9 years time- by then it will be far too late.

@PARIKRAMA and I have been disucssing this sorry state for a while.

I think key here is 2 prong approach
1. To attract more talent and fresh faces in IAF and IN fixed wings and rotary wings arm
2. To have a solid plan backed by implementation where we target say 1000 Jets for IAF by 2045-46 or make it 2050 also followed by IN having a strong 500-600 fleet of jets

The question to ask is how its possible,,, We need lines in India churning out to meet almost 1200 new jets for 30 years of production and use the next 3-5 years to set that course (when i add 1000+600 - 400 approx of surviving jets and rest considering retired).

This implies almost 40 jets a year kind of figure is required for continuous basis. Now imagine a simple situation where we decide just 4 jets for future.. LCA (IAF+IN), Rafale (IAF+IN) , FGFA (IAF) and AMCA (IAF+IN)

A simple planned structure implementation like below could take the cake

The above structure for example

• LCA can have different versions as per upgrades available to both IAF+IN.
• Rafales can have both IAF+IN Needs
• FGFA purely IAF
• AMCA comes in at the very end of Rafale production timeline and caters to IN and IAF both
• Off the shelf or purchases from direct import mechanism is outside all this.. (read Mig29Ks or white elephant F35s or PAKFA direct procurement or anything else)

In essence i am replacing a considerable amount of other competition as well as considering everything to be under MII

Its just an example but if we as i mean GOI/MOD can implement such a simple plan, we kind of make up for everything in a step by step concrete manner..

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

In that scenario, what do you think would be the best case of line size in India .. Bcz i see Dassault benefiting from lower human capital cost of India versus Merignac line..and for that the line production has to be a bit longer is nt it? and use partially its production for export customers too...And still cater to Indian needs in say max 12 years.. add to it 3 years setup, i see 15 years whole project term minimum side..

The medium case also throws an interesting scenario of a squadron per year or 192 jets over 12 years and an option of 96 more either for exports or for India or for null production...Of course the variables can change and so can be the case of production line quantity or duration overall

The French line is able to produce between 11 and 33 plane a year and I suppose we duplicate that in India. at short term we will produce at maximum rate and at mid term we will tune the rate.

For the French line we have to produce 18 Egypt, 24 Qatar, 83 France (10 before 2020) and 36 India that's 161.
But the 73 for France are from 2020 to 2032 so at a rate of 6/year only. So there is a potentiality for export of 5 minimum to 27 maximum by year.

11 in 2016; 11 in 2017; 15 in 2018; 33 in 2019; 24 in 2020; 6 in 2021......2032

Now you can add the new export or India if you need to get Rafale faster.

There is a possibility of 9 in 2020 and 27 from 2021 to 2032.

It is likely that we will have new order in middle east between 60 and 80 (Egypt +Qatar+Saoudi Arabia+UAE) so we will produce 24 in 2020 and 14 between 2021 and 2032.

So for me the new line in India is for India only, because there is potential to growth in the French line.

Then I doubt we can achieve 15 to 45 from year one, but may be in 3-4 yrs. But now you got me curious.
Do you specially configure anything in a Rafale for ASMP-A ? I am sure there will be software modifications as its a strategic weapon but I guess that would be a plug in. I dont see any structural changes to the plane as such?

EDIT: another question, couple of pages back you claimed that Rafale's operational availability is 97%. Do you have any literature available for that claim. I would be grateful to see it.

For strategic asset there is control of production all along. It can be perform only in France. It's to ovoid any malign product.
I had literature for the availability, and I gave a link in IDF Forum, @randomradio saw it, but I fail to find it again for the moment. Sorry.

 

[Dash]

I had literature for the availability, and I gave a link in IDF Forum, @randomradio saw it, but I fail to find it again for the moment. Sorry

No problem. To be specific, this 97% is kind of short burst during war or a linear line through out the operational life? where the maximum desirable attainability during peace time is 75% globally but do it for economic reasons. If French have been able to make it at least 90% then I would say its a wonderful achievement.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

No problem. To be specific, this 97% is kind of short burst during war or a linear line through out the operational life? where the maximum desirable attainability during peace time is 75% globally but do it for economic reasons. If French have been able to make it at least 90% then I would say its a wonderful achievement.

We have two "disponibility" the technique and the operational. One of these disponibility takes into account the way the French use Rafale. For exemple we stop tu use it and store Rafale when it reach the maximum hours planned. And the Rafale stored are declared non available even if they are completly able to fly in 1 hour. And there is an other "disponibility" where we remove all these bias. For the latter the availability in France is around 93% and in operation is around 97%. The difference between the two depends of the organisation of maintenance : to get 97% cost more but is important in operation.
And France have OPEX (OPeration EXtérieure) for several years now: Afganistan, Lybia, Mali Central Africa, Syria.

 

[Dash]

We have two "disponibility" the technique and the operational. One of these disponibility takes into account the way the French use Rafale. For exemple we stop tu use it and store Rafale when it reach the maximum hours planned. And the Rafale stored are declared non available even if they are completly able to fly in 1 hour. And there is an other "disponibility" where we remove all these bias. For the latter the availability in France is around 93% and in operation is around 97%. The difference between the two depends of the organisation of maintenance : to get 97% cost more but is important in operation.
And France have OPEX (OPeration EXtérieure) for several years now: Afganistan, Lybia, Mali Central Africa, Syria.

I understand the "disponability" part, but I had assumed a 85-90% operational availability.but 97% is pretty high number and the cost associated with it is very higher, considering 75%-85% as an economic threshold and anything beyond that costs you an arm and a leg after that. Anyway, thats great to know and it makes sense to France when you have a single fighter platform for all your needs. It must have high serviceability and operational readiness.

 

[Taygibay]

They will buy the Rafale in tranches whenever new versions of Rafale are released.

The first 36 are of a different version, higher than F3-04T but lower than F3R, possibly. The next XX will be F3R and then another XX numbers of F3R2. Then the MLU version.

That's a wrong approach in your first sentence. There is no such thing as versions so far.
One of the major advantages to Rafale is that standards rule and tranches mean orders only.
All the Rafales produced can and are being upgraded ( w/w-o optional equipments onboard )
to the latest standard. That means that up to the MLU that may include cell re-design ...
all Rafales are one model with adaptation work and the idea of splitting orders on that base is
null and void.

Tranches in our case contrary to the Typhoon lines for example are the same as going to the store
once a week for a month to get 3 bread loafs each time. That gets you the same 12 loafs as if bought
in bulk and since freshness is not as much of a problem with fighters than with baguettes, there is no
need save cash flow/ capitalization to split the orders.

Two small footnotes :

Pilot numbers are a problem for the IAF. In India's interest, this has to be addressed at the same time
as the procurement itself so the 2 meet.

Anytime anyone mentions the SH in relation to India, I stop listening / reading. That plane lost the MMRCA!!!
Only in India do people keep harping on such things. The Royale tried to get F-18s back before the Raffy got
started and delayed and then restarted. Then it got so-so aircrafts with little ready, a hurried if not botched
order to compensate the delays. Yet even then, no one came back with the Hornet-SH buys!

It's like breaking up a relationship : it's been 2 years since and she's not coming back nor getting thinner?
At some point, get over it, get over her, get over yourself! She ain't coming back!

Good day all, Tay.

 

[randomradio]

Numbers can change. The MMRCA numbers were based on a squadron number of 21 planes, and now we know that with Rafale IAF will made 16 planes squadron. It is because the real objective is to have 14 planes availables and with a 90% availability 16 plane by squadron are enough.
Similarly the objective of Navy is to have 12 planes available by squadron: for that currently they made 18 planes squadron, but they will modify that with Rafale to 14/squadron. So you have to modify 54 ===>42.

I'm not entirely sure this will work anymore. Earlier, IAF asked for less number of Rafales per squadron as part of a bargain to save costs. This is for aircraft that are to be imported from French line. I think you may remember, IAF asked for 44 extra aircraft from French lines a few months ago. That came to 5 squadrons.

Now that Make in India is going to happen for sure, the numbers will go back to normal, 18 per squadron + 1 reserve. If Rafales are coming from an Indian line, the IAF won't have to go back to 16 aircraft per squadron.

I had literature for the availability, and I gave a link in IDF Forum, @randomradio saw it, but I fail to find it again for the moment. Sorry.

Yes, the pdf files are on IDF. We don't have the link for it. I failed to bookmark it or download it also.

The images were hosted on imageshack, so imageshack has deleted them.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

I'm not entirely sure this will work anymore. Earlier, IAF asked for less number of Rafales per squadron as part of a bargain to save costs. This is for aircraft that are to be imported from French line. I think you may remember, IAF asked for 44 extra aircraft from French lines a few months ago. That came to 5 squadrons.

Now that Make in India is going to happen for sure, the numbers will go back to normal, 18 per squadron + 1 reserve. If Rafales are coming from an Indian line, the IAF won't have to go back to 16 aircraft per squadron.

You are referring to 80 flyaway jet news which so called our DM Mp did not agree for right?