Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Masterhunter]

You have taken a standard number. What you need to do is count squadrons.

Su-30MKI = 13.5
Mig-29 = 3
M-2000 = 3
Jaguar = 3.5

Total = 23 without new inductions. 485 jets.

New inductions
Su-30MKI = 2
Rafale = 2
LCA Mk1/A = 6

Total = 33. 202 jets.

So at least 33 squadrons are confirmed by media.

It means we still need 9 squadrons of extra aircraft. That's about 180 aircraft.

You believe 180 aircraft can be achieved by 2027. Yes, it is possible, but you did not take into account that IN needs 7 squadrons by 2027. A large chunk of the Indian made Rafales will go to IN also. So 9 squadrons for IAF + 7 squadrons for IN. Totally we need 9+7 = 16 new squadrons by 2027.

After 2027, the IAF will continue inducting new squadrons since they want more than 50 squadrons in reality. The total squadron strength is expected to rise after 2027. So add another 8 squadrons. Obviously, the navy also plans expansion after 2027. So more squadrons for them also.

You haven't considered attrition replacement either. That could easily add 5 jets a year or more. And some of the aircraft to be manufactured in India will be exported also. This is meant to make the line more profitable.

So even the second MMRCA line is too less. We are pressed for time. That's why even the FGFA has been fast tracked.

Even AMCA has been fast tracked. Once the FSED starts, probably this year, the first demonstrator will be built by 2019. First flight is expected then. One more demonstrator and four prototypes out of seven are expected in a span of just three years after 2019. They want to finish flight testing before 2025. The new engine will be integrated before 2021, so that's probably when the first prototype will fly. FGFA will be equally slow, with FOC expected only in 2025. Regardless, we still need the second MMRCA line.



The final numbers have been decided. The only people who know the numbers and the tranches outside Dassault and the Indian govt are Picdel, an ex-Indian Navy pilot called Vstol from IDF, a member called CNL from IDF and myself.

The numbers are part of the MoU that was signed in Jan. Once the first contract for 36 is signed, things will start moving in the Make in India front. The IN needs to complete evaluation for final numbers. MoD has pegged the number at 54 for now for the navy. The offsets will be covered by transferring tech for LCA program and building a production line in India.

This is the same thing I wanna to hear to discuss...
See what is standard size for a sqn..18 or 20. IAF used 18 fro western planes and 20 for Russian ones. I M aware this is done to offset low availability of Russian planes. But it can be increased and looked into.
Also when govt sanctions sqn strength it does go into numbers, that is where IAF plays with it.

Now let's see what IAF has...it has sanctinoed strength has 42 sqn by 2027. It includes physical present and order confirmed.
Su 30..15 sqn..300 planes (312 on order)
Mig29/mirage/jags..9.5 sqn ..173 planes
LCA...6sqn...(108+20 on order)
Rafale..2 sqn.. 36.. (Order almost done)
Total.. 31.5 sqn... 629 planes...
deficient of about 11 sqn. All above orders will be completed by 2023-24.

Now what actually IAF need by 2027.. 42 sqn strength.
Heavy fighter..15-20 sqn
Medium...12-15 sqn
Light 12-15 sqn.

1. Heavy fighter . (15-20 sqn) already have 15 su30 sqn. Can order 2 more and will get by 2025 by then FGFA will start production.. Can get 1-2 sqn by 2027.

2. Medium fighter:- (12-15 sqn) we already have 11.5 sqn.. Can order 03-04 sqn more rafale by MII ..will get by 2027.

3. Light fighter12-15 sqn) .. Getting 6sqn by 2024.....can get max 03 more sqn by 2027.

So total sqn that can be made from existing or proposed prod line is 09-11 more by 2027..

This will complete our deficiency by 2027.

Now the problem is we need more light aircraft that is LCA...
The solution of our problem is having a second production line is tejàs and not a new MRCA line. IAF don't need more MRCA to build up numbers, it can be better done by LCA. A new production line of LCA from 2021 churning 8-16 plane/yrs.. Can gives us minimum of 56 planes to max of 112 planes... That is approx 3- 51/2 sqn more of LCA

About IN need of rafale, IN need rafale after 2027 as Vishal/Vikrant2 will come after 2028 at best. MII rafale line will produce about 16/yr from 2022 at worst, if all goes well( decision by Dec 2016, negotiations by dec 18/Jan 19 plus three yrs for 1st plane to roll out. So from 2022 we can have minimum11 Rafales/yr( comparison French prod line..to give a minimum of 66 planes (3.5 sqn)... Or 16/yr to give 96 planes(5 sqn). This matches my figure of minimum production.

Now, if LCA second line starts we càn have 12-16 sqn more by 2027..approx matching what IAF force structure should be.

We will be retiring JAG/mirage/MIG from 2030-35.. ..total of 9.5 sqn
From 2028-2035
FGFA- 3-4 sqn..( to make a total of 5sqn
AMCA -02
Rafale..2028-30 will give IN their 54 Rafales.. From 2030-35 , 05 sqn for IAF.
LCA..1-2 sqn to keep line open till 2030..
So total sqn IAF might get in 2028-2035 are 11-13 to replace 91/2 sqn..
By 2035, IAF will have
Su 30... 17 sqn +FGFA..5 sqn = 22 sqn of air superiority
Rafale.. 10-11 sqn+ AMCA 2 sqn = 12-13 of MMRCA
LCA... 13-16 sqn..
Total is 47-51 sqn...by 2035....

Now again IAF needs more to increase pilots than to increase combat strength... If IAF can get 1.2 pilot/plane from present ratii of 0.8, it can get more sorties from each plane during war and can utilise its air assets better.... And it's more economicalthan buying more planes...
IAF whatever I have seen them working, once u give them 50 sqn they will ask for 60 citing china has 60......
We will be fighting defensive while fighting china.. So in defensive warfare, we can very well assume that china needs more than 1.5 times of our air assets to get air space control.. If we have 45 sqn.. 10 sqn with good airdef will keep pak at bay nd 35 sqn against chinese border. China need to put 50 sqn against us while keeping its borders with Japan/Taiwan and SCS manned..they need a total of 70+ sqn...too big a number to achieve in conventional warfare.

Also in this u can include follow on order of 18 more rafake through French line..

And hence total sqn of rafale with IAF by 2035 will be 3 sqn (French line) + 5 sqn (2022-27 MII) + 5sqn (2031-35) = a total of 13 sqn... 2 more than what IAF actually wants by MMRCA (189 planes or 10 sqn)

This all is in addition to 3sqn for IN ( 2028-2030) and 12 extra if prod line can max churn out 16/ yr..
If the prod can churn at 24/ yr from 2022... U can get max 112 planes more (6sqn) and that can euip the complete navy if needed.

Finally India don't need a new MRCA line.. It waste and will add one more aircraft variety into IAF inventory. Just need to optimise Present prod lines or buy off the shelf..

An order of 3 sqn of MIG 29/35 or 2 sqn of PAKFA or 2-3 sqn of old M2K will cover any lag in procurement to buildup number without creating new infrastructure of new plane

For Indian Navy, present status is
1. INS vikramaditya. .airwing..MIG29.. delivery of 45 planes completed.
2. INS vikrant... Operational date 2018.. Possible airwing MIG29/NLCA.. Order of 30-40 odd MIG29 likely as NLCA is operational by 2025-26..
3. INS vikrant 2..operational in 2027-28. Airwing not finalised.. Likely NLCA/RAfaleM... 32 planes needed
4. INS Vishal.. Likly operational by 2030-32.. Airwing rafale M moat likely.. 54 planes needed.
5. iNS Vishal 2 likly operational date 2038-40.. Airwing Rafale/ Naval AMCA ..54 needed..

Hence by 2030 IN needs 4 -5sqn.. Of which 2 sqn of MIG29 will be ordered offthe shelf. And rest 2 sqn of rafale-M I have catered for. From 2032 for Vishal.. NLCa will be ready and inducted (2 sqn) and one sqn of rafale (already catered) so to complete Vishal airwing.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The final numbers have been decided. The only people who know the numbers and the tranches outside Dassault and the Indian govt are Picdel, an ex-Indian Navy pilot called Vstol from IDF, a member called CNL from IDF and myself.

If this is true then Dassualt also know about the "second MMRCA" requirement to get numbers in service ASAP and thus, would it be fair to say that Dassualt are a profit maximising firm and would be interested to capture this extra revenue also so are working on a strategy to secure the "second MMRCA" order? Surely Dassualt are in the best postion of any global firm to secure follow on orders as they have all the ground work for MII laid.

I would still much prefer a Rafale fleet of 200+ than a mixed Rafale/F-18 fleet of 240 or so- I think the latter will just lead to pain in the long term for the IAF.

 

[Masterhunter]

If this is true then Dassualt also know about the "second MMRCA" requirement to get numbers in service ASAP and thus, would it be fair to say that Dassualt are a profit maximising firm and would be interested to capture this extra revenue also so are working on a strategy to secure the "second MMRCA" order? Surely Dassualt are in the best postion of any global firm to secure follow on orders as they have all the ground work for MII laid.

I would still much prefer a Rafale fleet of 200+ than a mixed Rafale/F-18 fleet of 240 or so- I think the latter will just lead to pain in the long term for the IAF.

Yea that should be the practical solution. To build up number we just one production line of Rafale and two prod line of Tejas..

Rafale fleet of 200 for IAF and 100 for IN is any day better than mixed fleet of rafale/F18 or rafale/Typhoon. 2 naval air bases and 4 bases for IAF is more than enuf to house these planes and economise the money spent on building base infrastructure.

 

[Abingdonboy]

4 bases for IAF is more than enuf to house these planes and economise the money spent on building base infrastructure.

2-3 SQNs per base makes sense IMO- this is around the figure of M2Ks found at Gwalior and around the figure the IAF likes to operate for all other types.

@Taygibay @Picdelamirand-oil @randomradio @PARIKRAMA

Sirs, say the govt-govt Rafale deal is signed in a few weeks and the MII part by this time next year.

a) How long to get 54 off the shelf Rafales into IAF service?
b) How long to get 150 Made in India Rafales into IAF service?

(for this I will discount the IN's Rafale requirements)

 

[randomradio]

Now the problem is we need more light aircraft that is LCA...

The second MRCA line is most likely for a single engine fighter.

As for a second line of LCA, there is no company today that can handle an entire aircraft production line. We will have to raise one over the next 10 years and then have private companies taking over AMCA production when the time comes.

About IN need of rafale, IN need rafale after 2027 as Vishal/Vikrant2 will come after 2028 at best.

IN needs the Rafales this decade. They don't have enough fighters for both Vikramaditya and Vikrant.

All the aircraft that we need through MMRCA program will be for immediate needs. That's before 2030. Post 2030, we will only be making FGFA and AMCA for IAF. If production of MMRCA continues, it will be for export.

Also IAF has stated that they don't want single engine fighters after 2027.

And hence total sqn of rafale with IAF by 2035 will be 3 sqn (French line) + 5 sqn (2022-27 MII) + 5sqn (2031-35) = a total of 13 sqn... 2 more than what IAF actually wants by MMRCA (189 planes or 10 sqn)

Rafale production in India won't take that long unless a new version is made. Even then, it is unlikely IAF will buy anything except FGFA and AMCA. I actually proposed the Rafale production line can make way for the FCAS UCAV after 2030.

Also, Rafale is expensive. The second MRCA line is expected to offset the difference in prices for more numbers. If left to the IAF, they would prefer only Rafale. The second MRCA line is being done by Modi and Parrikar, it's not an IAF decision.

Hence by 2030 IN needs 4 -5sqn..

Bro, I would suggest you go by what IN wants and not what you think IN wants. IN has asked for a 200 fighter jet air wing by 2027. And today they have only 45 Mig-29s. They still need 155 jets. And N-LCA Mk2 will most likely not happen since the navy is now looking at N-AMCA. Even if it did, they will order 45 jets. There will still be 110 jets pending.

The IN need a lot of coastal defence jets. Jets will have to be stationed at INS Hansa, INS Kadamba, INS Varsha and INS Baaz. Apart from 3 carriers, that need extra jets on land bases as reserve.

The 45 Mig-29Ks are meant for INS Vikramaditya and INS Hansa. A squadron will be deputed to INS Vikrant until new aircraft are inducted. Or they will have to buy another squadron of Mig-29s as a stop gap.

 

[Abingdonboy]

The second MRCA line is most likely for a single engine fighter.

See, I don't see it- this would mean the Gripen and for a whole hosts of reasons the Gripen just isn't an attractive option to India or the IAF. The most troublesome issue would be the fact that the Gripen in IAF service would all but kill the LCA, this is counter productive to India's long term interests.

 

[randomradio]

If this is true then Dassualt also know about the "second MMRCA" requirement to get numbers in service ASAP and thus, would it be fair to say that Dassualt are a profit maximising firm and would be interested to capture this extra revenue also so are working on a strategy to secure the "second MMRCA" order? Surely Dassualt are in the best postion of any global firm to secure follow on orders as they have all the ground work for MII laid.

It won't happen. Dassault won't be able to match the price of say Gripen E/F or F-16/SH in order to bag the contract. And Dassault won't be able to match the timeline either since Rafale and MRCA production is expected to happen in parallel, not as a follow on.

According to MMRCA, Dassault was expected to manufacture 20 jets a year for IAF. Now that IN's in the picture with 54 jets, Dassault will have to boost production to at least 25-30 jets a year. If you count exports, like the Saudis want 72 jets, and 5 more countries are interested in Rafale now. So Dassault will have a hard time supplying to all these countries at once.

Dassault's total production in France is 33 a year. The same line in India will help produce 36 jets a year. These two lines together will have to manage at least 400 exports, minus the jets that IAF/IN or ADLA/MN want.

The French line already has a commitment of 144 jets for export. ADLA/MN will place a 5th trance order soon for 40+ jets. So they are booked for years even with a 33/year line.

Only a combination of Indian and French lines can handle the remaining 5 countries. So it's not like they can start producing extra jets for the IAF/IN any time soon. It will take them 5.5 years after 2018 to deliver 120 export jets to India, UAE and Qatar at 22/year.

I would still much prefer a Rafale fleet of 200+ than a mixed Rafale/F-18 fleet of 240 or so- I think the latter will just lead to pain in the long term for the IAF.

It's much more than that. Imagine the 'full size' of the MMRCA contract + another MMRCA contract. Dassault cannot handle it in a short term basis. Dassault has delivered only 150 jets over the last 15 years. They may have to deliver 500+ jets over the next 15 years.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Bro, I would suggest you go by what IN wants and not what you think IN wants. IN has asked for a 200 fighter jet air wing by 2027

This is actually very true and I was looking for the exact quotes to back it up before saying so.

And today they have only 45 Mig-29s. They still need 155 jets. And N-LCA Mk2 will most likely not happen since the navy is now looking at N-AMCA. Even if it did, they will order 45 jets. There will still be 110 jets pending.

The 45 Mig-29Ks are meant for INS Vikramaditya and INS Hansa. A squadron will be deputed to INS Vikrant until new aircraft are inducted. Or they will have to buy another squadron of Mig-29s as a stop gap.

The window on new MiG-29Ks is closing IMO as the Dassualt offer is just too attractive for the IN to resist for long- the Rafale being offered as a common platform for the IN's STOBAR and CATOBAR carriers thus a common training, spares and support base going well into the future for every single new carrier (it's more than a little tempting IMO). 45 more MiG-29Ks as a stop gap would not come with any industrial benefits and would all be off the shelf procurements.

 

[randomradio]

Rafale fleet of 200 for IAF and 100 for IN is any day better than mixed fleet of rafale/F18 or rafale/Typhoon.

Add 126 more for MRCA. And it could very well be Gripen as long as it is cheaper than the SH.

So 200+100+126. I told you, we need more than 500 jets for IAF alone.
200 Rafale
126 LCA Mk1/A
126 Gripen/SH

All three in parallel production. This is how the numbers are. You have also not taken delays into consideration.

The second line for Mk1A is not possible for the next 5-10 years.

See, I don't see it- this would mean the Gripen and for a whole hosts of reasons the Gripen just isn't an attractive option to India or the IAF. The most troublesome issue would be the fact that the Gripen in IAF service would all but kill the LCA, this is counter productive to India's long term interests.

It won't kill LCA. LCA Mk1A will be purchased. At least the 106 minimum followed by another 2 or 4 squadrons. IAF is most likely not going for the Mk2, but it depends on how soon it is introduced. If Mk2 is ready by 2023, then IAF will buy 2 to 4 squadrons of the Mk2 instead of the follow on Mk1As. AMCA program has become more aggressive.

Sirs, say the govt-govt Rafale deal is signed in a few weeks and the MII part by this time next year.

a) How long to get 54 off the shelf Rafales into IAF service?
b) How long to get 150 Made in India Rafales into IAF service?

(for this I will discount the IN's Rafale requirements)

Check post 1946 for more details.

First Make in India Rafales are only expected the next decade.

The Rafales from Dassault's line will be capped at 36. The Make in India production will be for a new version.

The window on new MiG-29Ks is closing IMO as the Dassualt offer is just too attractive for the IN to resist for long- the Rafale being offered as a common platform for the IN's STOBAR and CATOBAR carriers thus a common training, spares and support base going well into the future for every single new carrier (it's more than a little tempting IMO). 45 more MiG-29Ks as a stop gap would not come with any industrial benefits and would all be off the shelf procurements.

US DoD is forcing IN to pick the F-35C. So even the F-35 is in the play.

I don't like extra Mig-29s either.

 

[Abingdonboy]

It won't happen. Dassault won't be able to match the price of say Gripen E/F or F-16/SH in order to bag the contract.

The only logical contender here is the F-18SH then.

Dassault's total production in France is 33 a year. The same line in India will help produce 36 jets a year. These two lines together will have to manage at least 400 exports, minus the jets that IAF/IN or ADLA/MN want.

Surely the Indian production line would be solely focused 100% on Indian orders first and with them completed would switch to orders for third nations? As such, say the Indian production line really can churn out 36/year, if it is up and running fully in 2021/2 it can produce 180 Rafales for India by 2027, take away 54 for the navy and you are left with 126 ie 1 full MMRCA for the IAF by 2027- made in India. Then add on the 54 for the IAF delivered by Dassualt off the shelf and you are at 180 Rafales for the IAF by 2027- around 9-10 SQNs worth (and 3 SQNs of Rafale-Ms with the IN). If the IN orders Rafale-Ms for the IAC-1 or its sister ship for STOBAR ops then the above will not be sufficent for the 2/3 carriers (IAC-1/IAC-1's sister ship and IAC-2).



@PARIKRAMA @anant_s guys, isn't it funny that all this time we have been talking/despairing about "the mother of all deals" the MMRCA and now we are actually enterataining the notion of a second MMRCA


I don't know whether this is reality or we are all expereincing shared hysteria based on how long and arduous this process has been thus far.

US DoD is forcing IN to pick the F-35C. So even the F-35 is in the play.

As much as I don't want to concede the need for a "second MMRCA" potentially an order for F-18SHs (for the IN or IAF) would negate this? Any option that keeps the F-35 out of Indian service needs to be pursued.

 

[randomradio]

The only logical contender here is the F-18SH then.

It's unclear. The Gripen line has to be built from scratch while the SH line can simply be transferred since production is ending in the US. This is where the SH can compete in price.

But Gripen is quite cheap if we look at the Brazil deal. Only 5.5B for 36 jets with ToT and production. That's much cheaper than the 6B for the Australian SH deal for 24 with specific modifications.

And Gripen NG has mind blowing performance.

Surely the Indian production line would be solely focused 100% on Indian orders first and with them completed would switch to orders for third nations? As such, say the Indian production line really can churn out 36/year, if it is up and running fully in 2021/2 it can produce 180 Rafales for India by 2027, take away 54 for the navy and you are left with 126 ie 1 full MMRCA for the IAF by 2027- made in India. Then add on the 54 for the IAF delivered by Dassualt off the shelf and you are at 180 Rafales for the IAF by 2027- around 9-10 SQNs worth (and 3 SQNs of Rafale-Ms with the IN). If the IN orders Rafale-Ms for the IAC-1 or its sister ship for STOBAR ops then the above will not be sufficent for the 2/3 carriers (IAC-1/IAC-1's sister ship and IAC-2).

You've got some of the numbers right. But versions also matter. IAF is not doing what they did with MKI. They will buy the Rafale in tranches whenever new versions of Rafale are released.

The first 36 are of a different version, higher than F3-04T but lower than F3R, possibly. The next XX will be F3R and then another XX numbers of F3R2. Then the MLU version.

Dassault also plans for a new version after 2030, to complement the new FCAS.

Any option that keeps the F-35 out of Indian service needs to be pursued.

Anything is possible when the navy is involved. They have warmed quite well to American products. Buying the P-8Is, showing interest in the Osprey and Hawkeye, and so on.

 

[randomradio]

France will support India, doesn't mean they will on a warpath production rate for India. Neither will Russia. That is akin to declaring war (albeit proxy) on China. No chance.

No such thing. NATO will support India. Russia will support India's war machine. For both countries, money is to be made.

Yes, and peacetime recruitment quality is different from "wartime recruitment" quality. Pilots won't be anywhere near the standard or as a capable.

The bad ones will be rooted out. Unlike before when only those who were interested joined, there could be forced recruitment during wartime.

So let me get this straight, in the next 15 years there will be a need to replace 245 MiG-21s, 85 MiG-27s and 145 Jaguars (albeit being upgraded). So that is nearly 500 jets that need to be replaced within the next 15 years...what exactly is the solution because that looks like a drastic situation?

It's not 145 Jaguars. Only 63 Jaguars will get the DARIN III treatment + AESA. The rest will be put in storage or phased out early. There's a shortage of 8 squadrons today.

Really seems desperate that within 15 years, 500 jets will be required and I haven't heard of a second MMRCA whilst the first saga still hasn't even finished AND the replacement, the saving grace that is the Tejas is being spat on by the IAF.

Chutiye.

IAF has reduced requirements and are inducting the Mk1A. AMCA is much more important. Unlike LCA, AMCA will chart the course for our aerospace industry for the next 30 years.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

2-3 SQNs per base makes sense IMO- this is around the figure of M2Ks found at Gwalior and around the figure the IAF likes to operate for all other types.

@Taygibay @Picdelamirand-oil @randomradio @PARIKRAMA

Sirs, say the govt-govt Rafale deal is signed in a few weeks and the MII part by this time next year.

a) How long to get 54 off the shelf Rafales into IAF service?
b) How long to get 150 Made in India Rafales into IAF service?

(for this I will discount the IN's Rafale requirements)

My point of view: 54===>2022 ; 150===>2027

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

The final numbers have been decided. The only people who know the numbers and the tranches outside Dassault and the Indian govt are Picdel, an ex-Indian Navy pilot called Vstol from IDF, a member called CNL from IDF and myself.

The numbers are part of the MoU that was signed in Jan. Once the first contract for 36 is signed, things will start moving in the Make in India front. The IN needs to complete evaluation for final numbers. MoD has pegged the number at 54 for now for the navy. The offsets will be covered by transferring tech for LCA program and building a production line in India.

Numbers can change. The MMRCA numbers were based on a squadron number of 21 planes, and now we know that with Rafale IAF will made 16 planes squadron. It is because the real objective is to have 14 planes availables and with a 90% availability 16 plane by squadron are enough.
Similarly the objective of Navy is to have 12 planes available by squadron: for that currently they made 18 planes squadron, but they will modify that with Rafale to 14/squadron. So you have to modify 54 ===>42.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

a) How long to get 54 off the shelf Rafales into IAF service?
b) How long to get 150 Made in India Rafales into IAF service?

Conservatively, 36 are expected from Year 3 to 5.5 so add another max 2 years for additional 18. So counting from today, the outer limit is middle of 2023.

As i remember the report i had from the Reliance side, they talked about establishing a line in approx 30 months with 6 months slack period for any contingencies... This clearly implies if MII work starts from Jan 2017 assuming deal is signed by 2016 year end, the worse case scenario production can start from end of 2020...

The report quoted 16 jets a year with an average load of 14 per year at that time.. Even if i assume its double now or say 32-36 odd jets a year, the financial viability will change a lot. This will push the Break even point in terms of numbers and value further... In fact the operational timeframe of line has to be further increased to prolong a return as there are additional fixed costs to be paid and max to max 15 years of tax holiday can be expected or a concession in a Aerospace/ Aircraft Manufacturing SEZ which Reliance wants its unit to be situated upon.

Conservatively, the line even if i assume starts with say a best case scenario of 36 jets line
2021 - 12
2022 - 24
2023 - 36
2024- 36
2025- 36
2026 - 36
----------------------

By the end of year 2025 thats 144 jets implying iAF has 144+54 = 198 Rafales
By the end of year 2026 thats 180 jets implying IAF has 180+54 = 234 Rafales

So the challenge this line structure will have is

1. What after 2026? Your investment for plant set up took 3 years and line is active for 7 years so whole end to end 10 years..
2. Will the plant exclusively cater to exports after meeting Indian requirement

Assume further that due to IN needs the Rafale M are not made in Merignac line but say that also in Indian Line.. Assume IN needs is also approx 100 jets (54-60 for IAC2 and say 40 odd for IAC 1 follow on or reserves or anything)

That keeps the line running for
2027 - 36
2028 - 36
2029 - 24 + 12 left

----
Thus the whole plan goes a bit tipsy turvy in terms of financial planning..

What i firmly believe is Indian line from Day 1 will be divided among IAF requirements and export customers..

In all probability the 54 flyaway which will be superior to F3-OT4 but below F3R, but in case of Indian line i firmly believe from Day 1 the version would be a customised F3R like and later F3R2.. Thus essentially the numbers divided and in all practical sense lowering the need for a large fleet MLU will see production till F3R2 whose launch date may be around 2022/23 types so implementing in our line would not see the need for a large fleet MLU

IF i remove the method of taking production up or ramping angle and consider directly numbers in linear fashion for easy comprehension, i see some scenarios like this..

As you see a squadron per year gives us 160 jets by 2030 whereas 20 jets a year by 2028.. Raising it to 1.5 sq a year gives us 160 jets in 2027 timeline..

Of course the export orders may be diverted to India too if We desire that and export orders can be met from merignac only situation.

Interestingly @Picdelamirand-oil pls correct me if i am wrong to assume that Merignac line will run at 33 jets a year surely right from 2021 (perhaps from a year or 2 earlier) Merignac line can give a productivity in between 242-363 jets from 2021-30.. So will Dassault have a market for 242-363 jets?
Assuming FrAf another Tranche - The gap is still over 200-320 jets in that decade..

What i want to point out is incase Indian line is very huge and after meeting orders it caters to exports or partially caters to exports like scenarios given here, the market for Rafale has to be much much bigger...

Thus, IMHO it would be pretty extreme case if we consider just 36 jets a year for India every year.. Unless India wants a humongous Rafale Fleet within shortest timeline and are ready to shell the amount needed for it..

Perhaps also one need to look at the supply chain part seeing optimization and localisation cost benefit coming into this production chain... a large production just for India wont let this benefit come in in such a short period of time..