CNN:Are China's economic statistics accurate?

[Genesis]

If you have anything intelligent to say about my points, please do so. Otherwise, I M not really interested in CCP propaganda. Simple point if you care to wrap your head around it - US/ EU are not growing at all, your domestic consumption is not growing and was in any case nothing much to talk about. So why all these high "investment numbers" which keep pushing your GDP to 8-9%. Stop reading the CCP pamphlets and you will see the true picture.

That wasn't a point? The two world leaders in GDP can't be trusted then who can?

Also, who told you Chinese domestic consumption isn't up, our per capita increases a lot over the years, and with each new generation of working class we get, we get a new generation of spenders who are much much looser with their money.

Have you ever considered why EU and US isn't growing as fast.

They can keep their per capita when China and India can't do even the basics of what they do, but now that we can, their uneducated bums can't earn and so they are not growing.

As the Chinese economy gets more and more into high end stuff, we will replace more and more of the US and EU in terms of goods and services, because our talent pool is more competitive, if for no other reason our standard is really high, look up how Chinese apply for jobs and what's required in their resumes and such and see the difference, and we will still charge less relatively. Which ironically will give us the same problem as them and that is our wage will be too high and overseas like India and South Asia and Africa will be better places to open up shop for low end stuff.

 

[walle]

If you have anything intelligent to say about my points, please do so. Otherwise, I M not really interested in CCP propaganda. Simple point if you care to wrap your head around it - US/ EU are not growing at all, your domestic consumption is not growing and was in any case nothing much to talk about. So why all these high "investment numbers" which keep pushing your GDP to 8-9%. Stop reading the CCP pamphlets and you will see the true picture.

China auto sales up 11.2% | News.com.au

Vast parts of China is far from developed, decades of investment is needed to keep up with the rate of urbanisation.

 

[kena]

That wasn't a point? The two world leaders in GDP can't be trusted then who can?

Also, who told you Chinese domestic consumption isn't up, our per capita increases a lot over the years, and with each new generation of working class we get, we get a new generation of spenders who are much much looser with their money.

Have you ever considered why EU and US isn't growing as fast.

They can keep their per capita when China and India can't do even the basics of what they do, but now that we can, their uneducated bums can't earn and so they are not growing.

As the Chinese economy gets more and more into high end stuff, we will replace more and more of the US and EU in terms of goods and services, because our talent pool is more competitive, if for no other reason our standard is really high, look up how Chinese apply for jobs and what's required in their resumes and such and see the difference, and we will still charge less relatively. Which ironically will give us the same problem as them and that is our wage will be too high and overseas like India and South Asia and Africa will be better places to open up shop for low end stuff.

Please don't talk in generalities. The moot point is whether the Chinese economy is really growing at 8-9% or are the Chinese fudging the numbers. I claim they are because they claim that their economy is growing at the same rate as pre 2008, while the economies of the major consumers are down in the dumps. One of your posters showed a graph which indicated that the export contribution to GDP is now -5.5% (minus), but the slack has been taken entirely by new investments. The domestic consumption is fluctuating but stagnant on an average. This would mean, assuming 8% growth, that investments are actually growing at 13.5%!!

Investment figures are the easiest to fudge. You just need fake or inflated invoicing. So my question again - what are the Chinese claiming to invest in at 13.5%. I know they build Ghost cities, but it is still too much. And investment at 13.5% needs domestic saving rate of around 65% !!!! So how you claim your consumption is growing??

 

[Genesis]

Please don't talk in generalities. The moot point is whether the Chinese economy is really growing at 8-9% or are the Chinese fudging the numbers. I claim they are because they claim that their economy is growing at the same rate as pre 2008, while the economies of the major consumers are down in the dumps. One of your posters showed a graph which indicated that the export contribution to GDP is now -5.5% (minus), but the slack has been taken entirely by new investments. The domestic consumption is fluctuating but stagnant on an average. This would mean, assuming 8% growth, that investments are actually growing at 13.5%!!

Investment figures are the easiest to fudge. You just need fake or inflated invoicing. So my question again - what are the Chinese claiming to invest in at 13.5%. I know they build Ghost cities, but it is still too much. And investment at 13.5% needs domestic saving rate of around 65% !!!! So how you claim your consumption is growing??

I only took 2 economy classes in College, and I remember preciously little as it is not my major.

However, I do not underestimate Economics.

If as you say all they had to do was change a few numbers, why doesn't everyone do it? Why doesn't India do it?

You won't say because Indian politicians got too much integrity would you? Or would you suggest that the world's economists and some of them in China be it Chinese or foreign are all fooled so easily.

With a scheme this big there is no way people would not hear about it. Do you know how many billions one percent is....

So either we are the world's best liars and frauds, or we are actually doing something right.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Please don't talk in generalities. The moot point is whether the Chinese economy is really growing at 8-9% or are the Chinese fudging the numbers. I claim they are because they claim that their economy is growing at the same rate as pre 2008, while the economies of the major consumers are down in the dumps. One of your posters showed a graph which indicated that the export contribution to GDP is now -5.5% (minus), but the slack has been taken entirely by new investments. The domestic consumption is fluctuating but stagnant on an average. This would mean, assuming 8% growth, that investments are actually growing at 13.5%!!

Investment figures are the easiest to fudge. You just need fake or inflated invoicing. So my question again - what are the Chinese claiming to invest in at 13.5%. I know they build Ghost cities, but it is still too much. And investment at 13.5% needs domestic saving rate of around 65% !!!! So how you claim your consumption is growing??

Absolutely wrong.

Check the Financial Times source I posted. Net exports subtracted -5.5% from the growth rate, while Investment added 50.5% and Investment added 55%.

The growth rate overall is around 8%.

 

[beijingwalker]

this report was made by some of the best professionals in the world,what they say carry much more weight and authority than you laymen here.

 

[beijingwalker]

that's a pretty just assessment,India GDP is a total fake,in one year they "adjusted" their GDP figure up to 40%,that's the only country in the world dares to make that huge 'adjustment".

 

[ephone]

I cannot live that long to see that...

I predict that Chinese economy will collapse.







































In 3013 AD....

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Any one who says china's economy is collapsing before 2101 is a idiot
They have a very capable leadership in which I have trust
& they also know as long as they deliver they are fine the moment they are not
Well Revolution will come

TRUE, BUT there is that one risk that China has that no other major economy has....

 

[Kloitra]

TRUE, BUT there is that one risk that China has that no other major economy has....

And what may that be?

 

[Guynextdoor2]

And what may that be?

The biggest political risk the world has seen in a long time. The day the average chinese man decides to clash with the CCP which thinks it has done 'all good' everything, including their economy will take an unbelievable beating.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The biggest political risk the world has seen in a long time. The day the average chinese man decides to clash with the CCP which thinks it has done 'all good' everything, including their economy will take an unbelievable beating.

You think people are not already clashing with the CCP? According to data we have 180,000 mass protests every year, that is more than pretty much any other country in the world.

The bureaucratic systems, social infrastructure, etc. will all still be there in that event.

Our growth will slow down naturally, because obviously it is a lot harder to add 7.5% to an $8.3 trillion economy, compared to adding 12% to a $4 trillion economy like we did previously.

 

[BeyondHeretic]

they know nothing about economics ,those Federal Reserve Bank guys who made this assessment are the real experts,they are professionals.

yeah , like bernanki , they are real experts , look what they did to greece

 

[Guynextdoor2]

You think people are not already clashing with the CCP? According to data we have 180,000 mass protests every year, that is more than pretty much any other country in the world.

The bureaucratic systems, social infrastructure, etc. will all still be there in that event.

Our growth will slow down naturally, because obviously it is a lot harder to add 7.5% to an $8.3 trillion economy, compared to adding 12% to a $4 trillion economy like we did previously.

I ain't talking about pin pricks man. The chinese version of things is truly scary. It is INEVITABLE that a complete overhaul and entry of representative institutions will be demanded by the chinese people as they grow richer and have access to information from outside. The 180,000 mass protests that you are talking about are not a 'check valve'- it's a clear indication that this prediction is true and the pressure is building up. And the demands are never gradualist- movements demand results NOW, not in 40 years. And yet the CCP will feel legitimately pissed and justified that they need not give any significant concessions, because they really did deliver on the economy. All the makings of an epic dynamite situation. Once this gets rolling it will be one hell of a fight. If the CCP wins again (like Tiniamen), it would be truly tragic- the only victory that would be valid if the chinese people finally get the representation they need. You don't want China under a communist dictatorship for 100+ years do you?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I ain't talking about pin pricks man. The chinese version of things is truly scary. It is INEVITABLE that a complete overhaul and entry of representative institutions will be demanded by the chinese people as they grow richer and have access to information from outside. The 180,000 mass protests that you are talking about are not a 'check valve'- it's a clear indication that this prediction is true and the pressure is building up. And the demands are never gradualist- movements demand results NOW, not in 40 years. And yet the CCP will feel legitimately pissed and justified that they need not give any significant concessions, because they really did deliver on the economy. All the makings of an epic dynamite situation. Once this gets rolling it will be one hell of a fight. If the CCP wins again (like Tiniamen), it would be truly tragic- the only victory that would be valid if the chinese people finally get the representation they need. You don't want China under a communist dictatorship for 100+ years do you?

LOL, you must be joking.

The system is reforming as it is. And Chinese people have patience, we can wait as long as it takes.

Personally I think we have to become developed first before we carry out major political reforms. Just like the other East Asian nations did it.

It's not risky at all, it is following a well established pattern. First industrialization, then after reaching developed status, political reforms. Pretty much all the major developed countries today followed this pattern in history.

India is the one taking a risky path, by having political reforms first, then trying to "skip" the industrial stage straight to services. Which has never been done before.